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The Championships - Triples [Complete]

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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby betiko on Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:56 am

hyposquasher wrote:
Donelladan wrote:
Aggregate number of rounds required to win the games you won.


I don't understand how this can be fair to anyone in any case.
I think games finish quickly when the dice are completely one sided and this is pure luck.
I think when dice are fair and both teams are good, then games can be very long, especially on the map we are playing, Conquer Rome can be very long for example.

Making advance people that won quickly seems non-sense to me.

And in extra, of course, hive will always be longer than waterloo, for example.
Number of territory should at least be considered as a coefficient.



Also, when games are lost, I always find pointless to keep fighting and just make the game longer. I am quite annoyed by the idea I should keep playing a game lost just to force opponent team to play more round.


I agree with these statements.


Yes I absolutely agree too. It would be OK if all 18 games were played on the same maps though for each team, but right now this is as fair as doing a tombola between all teams tied. Also, when a game is about to be won, some teams might concede, some others might bug you till the end (I personally hate when people do that, it s a total waste of time)
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:32 am

I'm not ignoring you, just really busy. Reply coming when I can.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Sat Jul 05, 2014 3:31 pm

We're at 20 active games. I'm going to see if we can start round 3 shortly.

Donelladan wrote:
Aggregate number of rounds required to win the games you won.


I don't understand how this can be fair to anyone in any case.
I think games finish quickly when the dice are completely one sided and this is pure luck.

Anything can be fair, as long as it applies equally to everybody, and as long as everybody knows what the rule is when they sign up. Deciding games according to the length of your nostril hair could be fair, as long as everybody's nostril hairs were measured in the same fashion and as long as everybody knew that's what was going to happen.

Number of rounds required to win is a pretty common tiebreaking criterion used in many tournaments on the site. Yes, it is somewhat luck-driven, but then, so is everything in this game!

However, is there a way to improve on it? Yes, I think we can manage that.

Donelladan wrote:And in extra, of course, hive will always be longer than waterloo, for example.
Number of territory should at least be considered as a coefficient.

Okay, working on that assumption, how about this:

For round 2, I will do a statistical correction. How about I average the length of all games played in round 2, compare that to the rounds played on each map, and adjust your rounds accordingly.

For instance, (so far in round 2) it seems the average game ends in 12.2 rounds. The average Conquer Rome game, however, ends in 15.8 rounds. So, I would go through your Conquer Rome games, and divide your rounds taken by a correction factor of (15.8/12.2).

That seems workable for round 2. It won't work for round 3, however, because we will be playing on many different maps. It would be theoretically possible to establish a sitewide average length of game on any map, but there's no way I could do all that, unless someone knows of a script that will do it.

josko.ri wrote:
Dukasaur wrote:
betiko wrote:by the way duka, how do you determine who advances and who doesn't? there will be tons of ties between teams. tie breakers?

Aggregate number of rounds required to win the games you won.


If this is the case, then more fair would be (and less chance to still lead to be tied):

Aggregate number of rounds required to win the games you won - Aggregate number of rounds required to lose the games you lost

The logic is the same, winning in as smaller number of rounds is "better" win because it means that you outplayed opponents in shorter time.
But also, losing in as bigger number of rounds is "better" loss, because it means that you as loser was resistant to your opponents longer time.
So I think both winning and losing rounds should be counted, to increase fairness.
Also, it will increase chance that it will not be new tie, just because game load winning+losing is higher than game load only from winning games.

We could try that for round 3. Is there a consensus in favour of that?

Agent 86 wrote:Just looking at the timeline for this event baffles me..It won't finish this year?

It should finish this year. Will come close, at least. Was a bit bumpy in the early going, but there should be fewer delays as we move on.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Donelladan on Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:32 am

For round 2, I will do a statistical correction. How about I average the length of all games played in round 2, compare that to the rounds played on each map, and adjust your rounds accordingly.

For instance, (so far in round 2) it seems the average game ends in 12.2 rounds. The average Conquer Rome game, however, ends in 15.8 rounds. So, I would go through your Conquer Rome games, and divide your rounds taken by a correction factor of (15.8/12.2).
=D>
Excellent.

We could try that for round 3. Is there a consensus in favour of that?


No.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby betiko on Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:39 am

group A:

Game 14465886 (looking 3A L; 6A W)
Game 14465854 (looking 3A L; 5A W)
Game 14465849 1A L; 3A W
Game 14465848 (looking 1A L; 5A W very close call though)
Game 14465844 5A L; 6A W
Game 14465840 1A L; 6A W
Game 14465828 3A L; 2A W
Game 14465821 5A L; 2A W
Game 14465817 1A L; 2A W
Game 14465807 6A L; 2A W
Game 14465786 7A L; 3A W
Game 14465782 5A L; 7A W
Game 14465778 1A L; 7A W
Game 14465774 7A L; 6A W
Game 14465752 2A L; 7A W
Game 14465743 3A L; 4A W
Game 14465726 4A L; 5A W
Game 14465723 4A L; 1A W
Game 14465691 6A L; 4A W
Game 14465686 4A L; 2A W
Game 14465684 7A L; 4A W

1 aaronvollrath Bigroo4601 hambone 5/6 round 2 1/5 total 6/11
2 Veni Vici Vidi Culham hayesez 5/6 round 2 5/6 total 10/12
3 dakky21 Hannibal 19 benga 4/6 round 2 2/4 total 6/10
4 arno30 Mishalex betiko 3/6 round 2 3/6 total 6/12
5 SpiteMalice shoop76 Tin Trumpet 2/6 round 2 1/4 total 3/10
6 RKCVED zips5000 jackal31 1/6 round 2 3/5 total 4/11
7 xman5151 alaskanassassin akabob2 1/6 round 2 3/6 total 4/12

finished games rankings:

team 2 -> 10/12
team 3 -> 6/10
team 1 -> 6/11
team 4 -> 6/12
team 6 -> 4/11
team 7 -> 4/12
team 5 -> 3/10

forecasted final round 2 ranking for group A:

team 2 -> 10/12
team 1 -> 6/12
team 3 -> 6/12
team 4 -> 6/12
team 5 -> 5/12
team 6 -> 5/12
team 7 -> 4/12
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:44 pm

Round 3 games have been created.

Most began uneventfully. However, some are bugged because a couple of players went freemium on us. We'll get those straightened out A.S.A.P. In the meantime, the others all appear to be started successfully.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:07 pm

All round 3 games have now successfully begun.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Foxglove on Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:52 pm

Thanks for keeping this organized, Duka!

I do hope, though, that future rounds will have fewer foggy escalating games. It's not a good combo for the strategery.

I feel like the random options should be (Foggy, No Spoils) or (Sunny, Escalating) or (Sunny, No Spoils)
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby hyposquasher on Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:52 pm

Foxglove wrote:Thanks for keeping this organized, Duka!

I do hope, though, that future rounds will have fewer foggy escalating games. It's not a good combo for the strategery.

I feel like the random options should be (Foggy, No Spoils) or (Sunny, Escalating) or (Sunny, No Spoils)


I agree!
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby jetsetwilly on Sun Jul 13, 2014 1:40 am

12 hours left but at the moment this game is bugged and I can't open it to take the turn. Game 14626280

I logged it yesterday but haven't had a reply as yet.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:10 am

jetsetwilly wrote:12 hours left but at the moment this game is bugged and I can't open it to take the turn. Game 14626280

I logged it yesterday but haven't had a reply as yet.

Is the whole game bugged or is it just the snapshot?

If it's just the snapshot you can take your turn by temporarily disabling panel mode.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby hyposquasher on Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:11 pm

hyposquasher wrote:
Also, I think I saw in the rules that the top 16 teams will advance beyond Round 3. Does that mean it is 4 teams from each Group? Or is it the top 16 teams overall?


Can we get a clarification here, please? Thanks! :)
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby jackal31 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:31 am

Question #1:
I saw in the rules that the top 16 teams will advance beyond Round 3. Does that mean it is 4 teams from each Group? Or is it the top 16 teams overall?


Question #2:
How are ties in the standings broken? It appears there could be 4 teams tied for places 3-6 in division A when it is all said and done.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby dakky21 on Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:29 pm

It's late and I can't find a scoreboard. Shouldn't one be in the first post?
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby hyposquasher on Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:01 am

Group B
1prismsaber Foxglove agonzos 9774 B
6angola jetsetwilly hyposquasher 8757 B
7Donelladan Momo33 QuikSilver 7832 B
2ckyrias dana1971 Epitaph1 7157 B
4jordy2425 Great-Ollie lynch5762 6774 B
3Seamus76 sandman175 V.J. 6358 B
5lordlau1 rjhankey Leverpuller 5901 B


Round 1
Team 1 - 5
Team 6 - 4
Team 2 - 3
Team 4 - 3
Team 3 - 2
Team 5 - 2
Team 7 - 2

Round 2
Game 14464400 - team 2 Win
Game 14464393 - team 1 Win
Game 14464388 - team 2 Win
Game 14464379 - team 1 Win
Game 14464377 - team 4 Win
Game 14464373 - team 4 Win
Game 14464368 - team 5 Win
Game 14464366 - team 2 Win
Game 14464353 - team 5 Win
Game 14464349 - team 5 Win
Game 14464343 - team 1 Win
Game 14464342 - team 6 Win
Game 14464339 - team 3 Win
Game 14464335 - team 6 Win
Game 14464332 - team 6 Win
Game 14464329 - team 1 Win
Game 14464326 - team 7 Win
Game 14464319 - team 7 Win
Game 14464305 - team 7 Win
Game 14464297 - team 5 Win
Game 14464295 - team 7 Win

Scores after Round 2
Team 1 - 9
Team 6 - 7
Team 2 - 6
Team 5 - 6
Team 7 - 6
Team 4 - 5
Team 3 - 3

Round 3
Game 14623316 - team 3 Win
Game 14623317 - team 1 Win
Game 14623319 - team 1 Win
Game 14623320 - team 1 Win
Game 14623321 - team 1 Win
Game 14623322 - team 1 Win
Game 14623329 - team 7 Win
Game 14623330 - team 2 Win
Game 14623332 - team 5 Win
Game 14623334 - team 5 Win
Game 14623335 - team 2 or team 3
Game 14623336 - team 2 Win
Game 14623337 - leaning to team 2
Game 14626278 - team 6 Win
Game 14626279 - team 6 or team 3
Game 14626280 - team 7
Game 14626281 - team 4 Win
Game 14626282 - team 6 Win
Game 14626283 - team 6 Win
Game 14626284 - team 3 or team 7
Game 14626285 - team 3 or team 4

Round 3 scores (games finished)
Team 1 - 5
Team 2 - 1 (2 ongoing)
Team 3 - 1 (4 ongoing)
Team 4 - 1 (1 ongoing)
Team 5 - 2
Team 6 - 3 (1 ongoing)
Team 7 - 2 (1 ongoing)


Total Score
Team 1 - 14
Team 6 - 10 (1 ongoing)
Team 5 - 8
Team 7 - 8 (1 ongoing)
Team 2 - 7 (2 ongoing)
Team 4 - 6 (1 ongoing)
Team 3 - 4 (4 ongoing)
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby RobbieDub on Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:24 am

dakky21 wrote:It's late and I can't find a scoreboard. Shouldn't one be in the first post?


I use this as the scoreboard:
http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?mode=autotournament&tournament_id=921
It seems the round 2 games are missing from it though.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:23 pm

dakky21 wrote:It's late and I can't find a scoreboard. Shouldn't one be in the first post?

Yes. Fixed.

RobbieDub wrote:I use this as the scoreboard:
http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?mode=autotournament&tournament_id=921
It seems the round 2 games are missing from it though.

Correct. The round 2 games are not part of the autotournament engine. Once they are all complete, I will manually compile the scores and BW will plug them into the autotournament engine.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby hyposquasher on Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:08 pm

jackal31 wrote:Question #1:
I saw in the rules that the top 16 teams will advance beyond Round 3. Does that mean it is 4 teams from each Group? Or is it the top 16 teams overall?


Question #2:
How are ties in the standings broken? It appears there could be 4 teams tied for places 3-6 in division A when it is all said and done.


Dukasaur, thanks for your answers thus far. Can we get any answers to the questions above? Some of these have been asked multiple times now.

As for the scoring, please take this as constructive criticism rather than one player's random bitching. I truly mean it to be constructive. I don't like the score on the link in the OP. First off, it's confusing. Is that supposed to be overall scores? Clearly right now it's not that.

Yesterday I believe it was showing the overall score of teams through round 2, but it was woefully out of date. Now it looks like it is showing stats for just round 3, I believe? But where can someone look who wants to see their team's collective score for all three rounds and compare that to everyone else?

I think people want to be able to see if they are in the hunt for advancing to the next round, and there's currently no place we can look to easily see that.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:35 am

hyposquasher wrote:
jackal31 wrote:Question #1:
I saw in the rules that the top 16 teams will advance beyond Round 3. Does that mean it is 4 teams from each Group? Or is it the top 16 teams overall?


Question #2:
How are ties in the standings broken? It appears there could be 4 teams tied for places 3-6 in division A when it is all said and done.


Dukasaur, thanks for your answers thus far. Can we get any answers to the questions above? Some of these have been asked multiple times now.

As for the scoring, please take this as constructive criticism rather than one player's random bitching. I truly mean it to be constructive. I don't like the score on the link in the OP. First off, it's confusing. Is that supposed to be overall scores? Clearly right now it's not that.

Yesterday I believe it was showing the overall score of teams through round 2, but it was woefully out of date. Now it looks like it is showing stats for just round 3, I believe? But where can someone look who wants to see their team's collective score for all three rounds and compare that to everyone else?

I think people want to be able to see if they are in the hunt for advancing to the next round, and there's currently no place we can look to easily see that.

1. I believe it's the top 16 teams overall, but I haven't gotten confirmation from BW yet.

2. Ties in auto-tournaments are broken by the number of rounds required to win your winning games, with the teams that won fastest advancing. That is the default value for all auto-tournaments on the site.

In response to criticism that this is unfair to those teams that got multiple Hives in round 2, etc., I agreed to do a statistical correction for round 2 only. The details of the statistical correction and how it will work were presented here: http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=202787&p=4526271#p4517003

3. Scoring. The autotournament information sheet (for which there is now a link in Post 1 gives you the current won/lost stats for games generated by the autotournament engine. Round 2 games were manually created by me, and therefore are not represented there.

When all round 2 games have finished, I will compile the stats for that, and those stats will have to be manually input into the engine. Only after that step is finished will the stats page correctly reflect the standings.

There are currently only 3 round 2 games still active. One is on turn 20 and two are on turn 18; all have a 20 round limit, so there is a good chance they will all finish by this Saturday. If they do, I will compile the stats this weekend. Even if they don't all finish, I'll still probably compile the stats this weekend, and then just wait to plug in the last 1 or 2 games. If these games finish sooner than Saturday, I probably won't have time to do anything about it, because I'm working pretty long hours and really only have meaningful amounts of free time on the weekend.

I know you would all like more up-to-date stats, but I'm between several rocks and hard places. I have 19 active tournaments, numerous other duties on the site, plus much to do in real life. The Tour Stats add-on that I used to rely on for tournament scores is broken and nobody seems to be maintaining it. The workings of the auto-tournament engine are visible only to admins. I'm going to have to compile the round 2 scores the old-fashioned way with a pencil and a notepad, plus the number of turns required to win and the statistical correction for that. Then I'm going to have to get BW to input it into the engine. Because of the unweildy procedure involved, I only intend to do it once. In short, please be patient.

I hope your questions have been answered. And no, I don't mind the criticism. I know I haven't really spent the time on this tournament that it deserves. I thank you all for playing and I understand your frustration. Just remember that you are pioneers -- the entire structure of Conquer Club is undergoing a transformation this year, and every field has to be cleared and plowed before it can be seeded. Next year this tournament will run much more smoothly, and your experiences here will show what needs to be smoothed.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby hyposquasher on Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:25 pm

Thank you very much for the detailed update. And also thank you for running this tournament and the other things you do on this site.

I completely appreciate that this is a work in progress and I hope everyone else does as well. I do think it's a fair request (for future tournaments) that teams would like to see something they can refer to in order to compare their scores to the other teams in the tournament to see if they are close to advancing to the next round. I understand the difficulty the tournament engine poses (frankly I think it needs some tweaking to be useful). I think in the future, even posting all the game numbers on one of the first couple posts would help. Several of us have shown enough interest that it's fair to say someone would keep an up-to-date scoreboard going via periodic posts to the forum thread.

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks again for your help.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby benga on Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:41 am

Why would it be 16 teams overall?

We only played games inside 1 group and now we will compare points to other groups?
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:14 am

benga wrote:Why would it be 16 teams overall?

We only played games inside 1 group and now we will compare points to other groups?

We've decided on a hybrid system. Top 3 teams in each group, plus four wild card teams that are the next best overall.

Also, just a point of contention. From here on in it will all be auto. When you go freemium, the autotournament engine won't put you in your game, and it becomes a big mess. Please make sure your premium doesn't expire. It's easy enough to check your expiry date. Please check it and make sure you have your premium well in advance.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:19 am

There are several sets of stats I'm working on, but this is the one that has been promised the longest:

round 2 wins

Group A
hayesez Veni Vici Vidi Culham 5
Mishalex arno30 betiko 3
RKCVED zips5000 jackal31 4
dakky21 benga Hannibal 19 2
shoop76 SpiteMalice Tin Trumpet 3
xman5151 alaskanassassin akabob2 3
Bigroo4601 aaronvollrath hambone 1

Group B
prismsaber Foxglove agonzos 4
angola jetsetwilly hyposquasher 3
Donelladan Momo33 QuikSilver 4
ckyrias dana1971 Epitaph1 3
jordy2425 Great-Ollie lynch5762 2
Seamus76 sandman175 V.J. 1
lordlau1 rjhankey Leverpuller 4

Group C
PROFITS BRADDY TheProwler 3
loutil Agent 86 Blitzkrieg Frank 5
pearljamrox2 WPBRJ hotfire 4
Leehar maasman LeQueen 5
sdh hmsps sekretar 2
blonderic Alexlau Cascades 1
stealth99 conquerhero bpt777 1

Group D
josko.ri Moonchild Rodion 4
umbrellaman evildoer generalahole 3
TX AG 90 hutchkov geko 4
OutSider RobbieDub mrfitz66 4
Gilligan SuperWang Peter Gibbons 2
ooge cjtails Slaylark 2
MD212 danhulbert radioman212 2
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:34 am

Okay, the second item I'm posting today is the promised statistical assessment of the maps used in round 2

aggregate # of rounds # of games avg. rounds per game

Hive 267 14 19.07
Conquer Rome 194 11 17.64
Stalingrad 208 15 13.87
Eurasia 224 19 11.79
Waterloo 186 16 11.63
World 2.1 83 9 9.22

overall 1162 84 13.83
Last edited by Dukasaur on Sat Aug 16, 2014 5:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Championships - Triples [ONGOING]

Postby Dukasaur on Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:09 am

Okay, third and most difficult, a look at who is probably advancing and who is not. One group still has active games going.

Feel free to browse my spreadsheet. Only the first page is relevant to this particular post, but some of the others may be interesting too, such as the list of most popular trips maps sitewide, etc., etc.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14p14cVfqj4NK3wDBWqbOFm4F3XXoP6iVkqNaZrkv7No/edit?usp=sharing

I am only calculating "rounds required to win" for those teams for whom it is relevant (those who are in ties or may be in ties once the last few games end.) There's no point calculating it for those who are obviously in or obviously out.

Group A
The hayesez team easily carried the group, with 14 wins. Shoop's, jackal's, and aaronvollrath's team all had 9 wins. Using the "rounds required to win" criteria, including the statistical adjustment in Round 2, I ranked the teams. Aaronvollrath's and shoop's team make 2nd and 3rd, while jackal's team gets the orange bar for a wild card team. Jackal's team has the best "rounds required" number of any of the 9-win wildcard teams, so it is guaranteed to get in.

Group B
Foxy's, angola's, and ckyrias' team took 1st, 2nd and 3rd spot. None of the other teams is likely to make the cut, unless at least two teams higher up are disqualified. All of the teams below ckyrias' have 8 wins or fewer, and no active games remaining.

Group C
Loutil's and Leehar's teams are 1st and 2nd. Leehar's team will probably win one more game so may be tied. Either way, however, they are both through to the next round. Pearljamrox's team is also through to the next round one way or another, although it remains to be seen in what fashion. Both Pearljamrox's team and PROFITS' team still have one active game. Regardless of the result, both will make the Round of 16; the only thing that could change would be the manner in which they enter. If both win or both lose, or if Pearjam wins and PROFITS loses, then Pearljam's team will take the 3rd Group spot and PROFITS' team will be a wildcard team. If PROFITS wins and Pealjam loses, then there would have to be a "rounds to win" calculation between them. In that instance, however, both would be sure to qualify for the next round, with the higher one getting the group ticket and the other being the highest-scoring wild card team. IF PROFITS' loses their final game, they still will have the 3rd best "rounds required" number of the wild card teams and therefore will qualify.

Group D
Josko's and Outsider's teams have 11 wins each and are 1st and 2nd. Umbrellaman's team and Gilligan's team both have 10 wins, but Umbrellaman's team has a slightly better "rounds required" number so it gets the 3rd slot. Gilligan's team is certain to get a wild-card berth; the lowest they could come is 2nd in the wild-card placements. Ooge's team will qualify at the very bottom of the wild-card stack.

My OSA friends will unfortunately, not qualify. The team of TX AG 90, hutchkov, and geko has 9 wins, but the worst "rounds required" number of any of the 9-win teams, and therefore, by one little short-and-curly will not make the cut unless a higher team drops out or is disqualified.

Note: I have been editing this post as I make and refine calculations. I believe it is correct as of 11:05 am Eastern time (also CC time). If you saw an earlier version this morning, there may have been errors in it.
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Captain Dukasaur
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