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Balance Not Included Mafia 4/12 D4: Nothing to Balance

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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 6/12 D3: Discord in the Night

Postby strike wolf on Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:19 pm

Sorry. Out later than I expected. Day is over. James has been lynched. Scene upcoming.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 6/12 D3: Discord in the Night

Postby strike wolf on Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:01 am

strike wolf wrote:Vote Count

JamesKerr (4)-Pancakemix, Iron Butterfly, DJfireside, Spiesr
Pancakemix (2)-JamesKerr, Jonty125

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is tomorrow.


Thrown out of Whack

Brian Golong thought he was going to get away with it. The town was after him but they were running out of time to catch him. He just had to stay ahead of them a little longer and who knows what the night might bring to aid him. It wasn't until he turned the corner, that he realized it was too late. The town dragged him back to the center and asked him how he pleaded. He begged them to be merciful, reminding them that he had once been a football star and how he busted that drug lab that had been selling the pink meth but the town did not listen and as the shadow of dusk reach the horizon he was lynched.

Jameskerr-Brian Golong-Mafia Role Cop has been lynched.

It is now Night 3. You have 48 hours to send in actions.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 N3: Corrupted Equilibriu

Postby strike wolf on Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:02 pm

Alright. I have all actions in. If no one objects, I will start day around 11:30 tonight.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 N3: Corrupted Equilibriu

Postby Metsfanmax on Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:07 pm

No objection here ;-P
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 N3: Corrupted Equilibriu

Postby strike wolf on Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:23 pm

Blanks

The town celebrated the lynch of Brian Golong, the fallen star athlete turned corrupt cop. Though even as they partied a dark shadow lay above them, weighing on their minds. How many days left were there? Would they survive or would the remaining villains complete their jobs? These and other tough questions spread through them without being spoken. Even then there were many buzzing and flitting around, looking for answers but finding none. In the end, they had worried so much that when the sun rose, they almost didn't realize that all of them were left alive.

It is now day 4. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline next Thursday at 11:30 pm EST.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:37 pm

Jonty why did you role block me?
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Djfireside on Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:56 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:Jonty why did you role block me?


TO go in hand with that question is why did no one die
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby jonty125 on Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:29 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:Jonty why did you role block me?


To keep you alive.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:17 pm

The thing is you are more important then me. I targeted you. I would have blocked Spiesr. Hindsight is 20/20 I guess.

But yes it is interesting with no death, which could suggest several things.

1) mafia was blocked-which would leave me (DJ is blocked already)

2) Mafia is dead and Hotshot may have recruited someone before his death as it is still not proven he targeted mafia. He could have recruited before being killed. (which could be anyone except jonty)

3) Spiesr is mafia and choose not to kill.

In my book Spiesr is the number one person unless he targeted someone. In the end I think the solution is to lynch PCM per yesterdays plan and decide who hammers. This would work nicely as jonty does not have to and the rest of us can do so.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Djfireside on Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:33 pm

I tend to think that there is no recruit since the scene said the recruiter was walking trying to find someone to recruit. May be flavor but I will roll with it. so Im assuming 1 or 3.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby spiesr on Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:47 pm

Here is an idea I will put out there. We could try going no lynch for a couple of days until Jonty has locked everyone down. That way we don't run the risk of losing if we mislynch and the scum wasn't already blocked but just faking it. Any thoughts on the concept?
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby pancakemix on Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:21 pm

In my book Spiesr is the number one person unless he targeted someone. In the end I think the solution is to lynch PCM per yesterdays plan and decide who hammers. This would work nicely as jonty does not have to and the rest of us can do so.


The problem here now is if the wrong person lynches me, it's endgame. It would have to be either spiesr or jonty (not happening) hammering to guarantee another day, and I'm not even sure how my bomb will react with the vests. Perhaps the mod could answer how a bomb would react with a bulletproof vest?

spiesr wrote:Here is an idea I will put out there. We could try going no lynch for a couple of days until Jonty has locked everyone down. That way we don't run the risk of losing if we mislynch and the scum wasn't already blocked but just faking it. Any thoughts on the concept?


The problem here is that it doesn't deduce anything, it just draws out the game. If we take a stab at a lynch, what you're suggesting will happen anyway; either they'll be blocked tonight or they'll have killed jonty and the last blocked person will be able to confirm they've been blocked (or there's a mess where the unblocked claims he was blocked, but that's no good for him if they lynch wrong and is possible in either scenario).

Personally, my concern immediately falls on DJ, because when faced with the James case he opted to request a mass claim. It struck me as scummy then and still does.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:15 am

spiesr wrote:Here is an idea I will put out there. We could try going no lynch for a couple of days until Jonty has locked everyone down. That way we don't run the risk of losing if we mislynch and the scum wasn't already blocked but just faking it. Any thoughts on the concept?


Lets play what if shall we? What if Storr was right and there are two mafia factions. IF you and PCM are mafia then jonty is a sitting duck. Granted that is a long long shot but I certainly am not going to discount it. The fact that you killed storr under the guise of protection has never sat right by me.

Waiting two days to lock everyone down, meaning you and PCM, will be no different lynch wise then it is today. If all goes well we will still need to lynch with 5 players standing. Worst case is jonty is killed tonight before lock down.

Is there a reason you did not tell us weather you protected someone and why you would not want to lynch PCM? From my understanding PCM will kill all mafia who lynch so its a win win.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby jonty125 on Sat Oct 04, 2014 3:09 am

I think spiesr's our best bet for today's lynch, can't trust CPR doc too much.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby spiesr on Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:32 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:The fact that you killed storr under the guise of protection has never sat right by me.
Can you point me to where you got the idea that I was trying to protect Stor (or make people think so) when I killed him? My intent was to use my action as a kill, and I don't recall describing it any other way. Relevant post is below:
show
Iron Butterfly wrote:Is there a reason you did not tell us weather you protected someone
An oversight on my part. I did not have much time to read when I made my only previous post this day and as a result did not interpret your bit about me as an actual request to know if I did anything last Night. I did not take any action Night 3. (As I consider my role to basically be a vig this is my default stance.)
Iron Butterfly wrote:and why you would not want to lynch PCM? From my understanding PCM will kill all mafia who lynch so its a win win.
Can you explain what exactly you are saying here? I have not stated any indication on who I would prefer to lynch today yet. I raised the idea of waiting until everyone is blocked before lynching anyone, but that is only a comment on when a lynch should occur, not who it should be. At this point I have not yet decided on my preferred lynch candidate.
Also, can you explain what you meant by that last bit in the above quote? Are you understanding the bomb claim differently than I am? (My understanding is that it kills whomever nightkills or hammers him, unless they are sufficiently bulletproof.)
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:13 pm

Why would we not want to know your actions? We had no night kill so weather you targeted someone is very important.

"Can you point me to where you got the idea that I was trying to protect Stor (or make people think so) when I killed him? My intent was to use my action as a kill, and I don't recall describing it any other way."

You did not then. I made my statement without parsing your comments. What was evident to me was that we had three deaths last night one of which was a direct result of you. Your targeting was one of intent then with no way to discern if you are Town or Mafia.

Something I find puzzling.

PCM does not wish to engage in his lynch because he fears a mislynch and endgame yet yesterday he was perfectly willing to put us there. If james had hammered we would have had one Town and one Mafia dead and be at 4 players.

As it stands we just have James dead who flipped mafia and no dead Town. If you were to hammer him and you are mafia and he is Town we would have Two dead mafia since yesterday. We are in a better position today because we lynched mafia so I do not understand the trepidation.

If there is just one mafia left and it is Spiesr and he hammers PCM it would be game over.
If there is just one mafia left and Spiesr is Town and he hammers PCM and PCM is Town we will know that Jonty and Spiesr are Town, which would mean that either myself or DJ are the last mafia. We are both blocked and can not nightkill so even a mislynch we win tomorrow.

All this fear on PCMs part on a mislynch is the predicated then on there being two mafia left? IF there are two mafia left then well then we may be in a pickle lynch wise if we mislynch but if it was not a problem yesterday then why is it a problem today?

We have only one logical choice and that is for Spiesr to hammer PCM per yesterdays aborted plan.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby pancakemix on Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:35 pm

I got confirmation that my ability functions like a vig kill, ergo it will not kill anyone with a vest. So that's one thing.

If there is just one mafia left and Spiesr is Town and he hammers PCM and PCM is Town we will know that Jonty and Spiesr are Town, which would mean that either myself or DJ are the last mafia. We are both blocked and can not nightkill so even a mislynch we win tomorrow.


This is false. At that point it's 50/50 and basically on jonty's discernment. That's why I say we make a decision now rather than playing a numbers game. It favors us then to just lynch spiesr in that case, because in a situation where there are no kills in play I think the "4 remaining" factor favors town as opposed to it typically favoring mafia in that situation.

All this fear on PCMs part on a mislynch is the predicated then on there being two mafia left? IF there are two mafia left then well then we may be in a pickle lynch wise if we mislynch but if it was not a problem yesterday then why is it a problem today?


No, it's predicated on my lynch not having an effect (as it turns out, this fear is grounded). If there are two mafia left, we're fucked regardless. With James it was different: I was positive we wouldn't be endgamed and that the math would work in our favor. I lean town with spiesr, so that's cause for hesitation enough, nevermind that the odds are better if we just lynch him outright.

Matter of fact, I don't think I suggested there were two mafia left, nor would that make sense because if there were two today, there'd have been three yesterday and that would have been endgame (3:3, or 3:2:1 with a possible cult member). Your vehemence about this plan and your misrepresentations are becoming disconcerting.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:32 pm

If Spiesr hammers you and is mafia and You are Town bomb then Spiesr dies as well correct PCM?

If Spiesr hammers you and is Town and you are Town Spiesr lives and You die we would be exactly where we were if we followed through with your plan yesterday. Correct PCM?

"This is false. At that point it's 50/50 and basically on jonty's discernment" Please explain.

At this point of the game it IS a numbers game. It IS about logic. If we follow through with the "bomb lynch" plan of yesterday we would be no worse off then yesterday.

Here is the math and numbers which one can not refute. Spiesr by lynching you will prove or disprove both YOU and Spiesr. DJ and I are both locked down so can not night kill.

If Spier is Town we now know that both Jonty and Spiesr are Town.

Mafia would be between DJ and I. EVEN IF THEY MISLYNCH the remaining player is blocked and can not nightkill. Spier and Jonty can then endgame and win for Town.

"Your vehemence about this plan and your misrepresentations are becoming disconcerting"

Nothing is misrepresented. You had no problem yesterday. Today you do. There is nothing disconcerting unless Spier or you are not who they say.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:43 pm

Just so I am NOT mistaken.

The Town bomb kills the person who lynches if they are mafia? That is how i interpreted the role. My argument is based on that assumption. If the person who hammers is Town they will not die? I want to make sure this is how it works.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby pancakemix on Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:10 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:Just so I am NOT mistaken.

The Town bomb kills the person who lynches if they are mafia? That is how i interpreted the role. My argument is based on that assumption. If the person who hammers is Town they will not die? I want to make sure this is how it works.


Whoever hammers dies. Doesn't matter their alignment. Vests will protect them, however.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:55 pm

pancakemix wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:Just so I am NOT mistaken.

The Town bomb kills the person who lynches if they are mafia? That is how i interpreted the role. My argument is based on that assumption. If the person who hammers is Town they will not die? I want to make sure this is how it works.


Whoever hammers dies. Doesn't matter their alignment. Vests will protect them, however.


:oops: Geez... never mind then. Here I thought it was all worked out with my scenario.

The fact is a no lynch is not an option in my book. I think the best course of action is for everyone to make a case of who they think should be lynched and why.

We need discussion not silence. Sitting around waiting for deadline will not work. I am tired so I will post my thoughts tomorrow.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby pancakemix on Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:30 am

Iron Butterfly wrote:We need discussion not silence. Sitting around waiting for deadline will not work. I am tired so I will post my thoughts tomorrow.


This

Scummy list:

1. DJ - for avoiding the subject of the James lynch in favor of a mass claim. No kill last night also points in this direction.
2. IB - for the whole bomb suggestion mess. This seems like a legitimate error, and he has backed off so that helps his case. However, the no kill also points here.
3. Spiesr - Call it a gut feeling, but I'm inclined to trust him. Then again, I always am. Could his suggestion that the mafia intentionally didn't kill be crazy WIFOM? Occam's Razor says probably not
4. Jonty - Because... well yeah.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby strike wolf on Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:21 am

Reminder: Day ends in the 3 and a half days. There are no votes cast as of yet.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby Djfireside on Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:48 pm

pancakemix wrote:
Scummy list:

1. DJ - for avoiding the subject of the James lynch in favor of a mass claim. No kill last night also points in this direction.
-- I have been blocked since N1 and there has been Nightkills since then so Im not sure how last night kill directly points to me. As for the Mass claim, When it came out I didnt like the name that James came with and initally kept hinting to it that I didnt believe a golfer would be a role cop. I was also the first one when he tried to duck the plan to jump on him when I could have just done nothing and let him live. I was the first to come forward and I was not even the one who suggested the mass claim, that was Jonty.

2. IB - for the whole bomb suggestion mess. This seems like a legitimate error, and he has backed off so that helps his case. However, the no kill also points here.
-- Based on your logic, IB got blocked last night so that would point to him for who just got blocked.

3. Spiesr - Call it a gut feeling, but I'm inclined to trust him. Then again, I always am. Could his suggestion that the mafia intentionally didn't kill be crazy WIFOM? Occam's Razor says probably not
-- Spies is not blocked so has some merit. Since he hammered James gives more credability
4. Jonty - Because... well yeah.

-- Unless there is some weird twist on the revival Jonty is 100% safe so perfectly understandable place.


IB tops my list since we are both blocked and there was no nightkill last night. I know in stating this it puts me at the top of the list as well which I am not denying since in looking at the whole picture we are both high up. The same argument can be made for me. I have thought of a possibilty wheere I lynch PCM and see where that goes but there are alot of holes that I will discuss and now that I think about it doesnt offer as good odds as I first thought.
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Re: Balance Not Included Mafia 5/12 D4: Slanted

Postby pancakemix on Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:39 pm

I have been blocked since N1 and there has been Nightkills since then so Im not sure how last night kill directly points to me.


But James was not, which only makes you being blocked relevant up to the point where James was not a factor.

As for the Mass claim, When it came out I didnt like the name that James came with and initally kept hinting to it that I didnt believe a golfer would be a role cop.


Why only hint? Up to that point, names had been a determinate factor in detecting a fakeclaim (that holds following James' lynch). If you thought it was questionable, why did you wait to defer to the bomb plan and then when that failed opt for the lynch?

I was also the first one when he tried to duck the plan to jump on him when I could have just done nothing and let him live.


This is true, but I bet you he gets the block that night, lynched the next day, and we have to start looking at who was unwilling to lynch him. It's kind of a forced play at that point. Because of that, I don't know that it's indicative one way or the other.

I was the first to come forward and I was not even the one who suggested the mass claim, that was Jonty.


Suggesting it is not what's at issue. Opting to it is. There was the option of pursuing the James case, but you wanted the roles on the table instead. I'm disinclined to trust that play, especially given James' flip.
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