Conquer Club

Nut Shot Scott wrote:

Caymanmew wrote:

Nut Shot Scott wrote:

Extreme Ways wrote:

hopalong wrote:This is reverse weighted, yes? If you have Jpl in your CL fantasy pool, he/she/they is worth 25 pours, yes? Mc0 is worth 1. Everyone not on the list is worth less, yes?

Yeah, JP is worth about 25 game wins whereas the likes of Don, Josko and MC will only net you a few wins. I think JP is actually worth 1-2 less though, I wonder how the list would look if he's at his actual spot?

the numbers would say otherwise...

If you used an actual formula, would you be willing to share? The list seems fairly accurate and not biased at all so it would be interesting to see if it is in fact a formula.

I gave points for dubs, trips and quads wins, home wins, and away wins, took points for home losses then used overall win % and added a decreasing luck factor to the dubs, trips and quads games ie dubs has a higher luck factor than quads does. then there's some adding, subtracting, multiplying, dividing and voile! You have a power number as well as a "per game" number.

Cool, as I said it looks fairly accurate, especially up top. Glad to have 4 ATL members in the top 25!

This is actually kinda neat. Second the interest in actually seeing the formula if you do indeed have one.

Swimmerdude99 wrote:This is actually kinda neat. Second the interest in actually seeing the formula if you do indeed have one.

Nerd.

I am breast, list = inaccurate

Swimmerdude99 wrote:This is actually kinda neat. Second the interest in actually seeing the formula if you do indeed have one.

Dubs + trips + quads x each respective luck factor (25/16.7/12.5%) + home wins + away wins - home losses x overall win %

Each game is awarded a total of 6 points, each home win a point, each away win 2 points, each home loss -1 point

So since there are only two players in a dubs game, each win is worth three points, negatively impacted by a 25% luck factor. Trips is 2, quads is 1.5. Reasoning there was simply that in a dubs game you in general are going to have a larger impact on the outcome of the game than you would in a quads game. There are obviously going to be flaws because I cannot discern who takes instruction and who truly contributes or leads but in general, if you win your games and do it in a well rounded fashion you're going to rank high. If you only play home quads games because you only play 4 maps, you probably won't rank high. If you play a lot of games, you can end up with a slightly inflated number just because you would in theory pick up wins. Of course opinions will exist but I think the results of the games generally tell a true story.

I haven’t been following Premier League but based on what I know of players it makes some sense although the top spot is a bit baffling and seeing Fyrd and JP near the bottom also is. With LHDD being a bit down this year (or so I’ve heard) I would say the system undervalues Don somewhat, but again I’m not nearly as attuned to things as I’ve been in past years. Hard to say what goes on in Quads games as an outsider, but leading a quads game is more work than smaller teams in most cases.

Well, I am nowhere near making the top 25. Most of my wins are home quads

rockfist wrote:I haven’t been following Premier League but based on what I know of players it makes some sense although the top spot is a bit baffling and seeing Fyrd and JP near the bottom also is. With LHDD being a bit down this year (or so I’ve heard) I would say the system undervalues Don somewhat, but again I’m not nearly as attuned to things as I’ve been in past years. Hard to say what goes on in Quads games as an outsider, but leading a quads game is more work than smaller teams in most cases.

To give you some idea, the top spot has taken on the second highest game load on their team, wins almost 70% of the time, does it across all three game types and rarely loses a home game. The numbers suggest that player is having a great season while playing for one of the three top teams in the division. I can't see who is leading games and who isn't so really can only go by what the numbers point to.

Caymanmew wrote:Well, I am nowhere near making the top 25. Most of my wins are home quads

You are 38th

Nut Shot Scott wrote:

Caymanmew wrote:Well, I am nowhere near making the top 25. Most of my wins are home quads

You are 38th

Nice, better than I thought. Checked my games and saw 9 of 12 wins being quads and thought I'd be way down on the list.

But you're 10-4 on your home games so you don't lose many points there. I will share the whole sortable list with total scores, score per game and win % if you guys want. I feel a little bad for people way down the list but I guess whatever.

Nut Shot Scott wrote:But you're 10-4 on your home games so you don't lose many points there. I will share the whole sortable list with total scores, score per game and win % if you guys want. I feel a little bad for people way down the list but I guess whatever.

I'd love to see it personally. Those at the bottom shouldn't feel bad, we all go through rough stretches where our stats suck.

Done.

hey Scott....how much did you say i owed you?
oh crap...is this a public comment?

Glad I'm not included in this...I've been going through one of those stretches (some say since 2009).

Nut Shot Scott wrote:1. MTIceman41
5. josko.ri

Reasons #1 and #2 why I am not a Major.

A couple of other reasons further down the list too.

I'm almost glad I'm not in the top 25, I would have felt like such a fraud.

please change reason #1, that snowflake doesn't need more ego

It's a small sample in the clan league, rather than an all time list, so the fact that josko and Don still rank highly is a credit to the both of them.

Given all I had was perception for Caff and his clan mates, I'm actually quite impressed at the level of statistical analysis, since numbers are easier to go on then other anecdotal evidence. MT is also a clan mate for you so why would you knock his 75% win rate on a decent game count?
Props to ABR for his 90% win rate as well.

You are 31st on the full list of 150 odd players in the premier division, so how does that affect your fraud assessment

niMic wrote:

Nut Shot Scott wrote:1. MTIceman41
5. josko.ri

Reasons #1 and #2 why I am not a Major.

A couple of other reasons further down the list too.

I'm almost glad I'm not in the top 25, I would have felt like such a fraud.

Leehar wrote:Given all I had was perception for Caff and his clan mates, I'm actually quite impressed at the level of statistical analysis, since numbers are easier to go on then other anecdotal evidence.

What can I say? I'm the black sheep.

iAmCaffeine wrote:please change reason #1, that snowflake doesn't need more ego

Small complaint - I'm 100% carried by my teammates. #33 is way too high for me. (all kidding aside, this is great work)

iAmCaffeine wrote:i know you worked hard making the formula rule out people who repeatedly get carried in games rather than actually leading teams to victory, but that top 25 shows it clearly hasn't worked fully. seems good for the most part though.

itake wrote:Small complaint - I'm 100% carried by my teammates. #33 is way too high for me. (all kidding aside, this is great work)

iAmCaffeine wrote:i know you worked hard making the formula rule out people who repeatedly get carried in games rather than actually leading teams to victory, but that top 25 shows it clearly hasn't worked fully. seems good for the most part though.

Anyone who is good enough to not mess up being carried by teammates is deserving of a decent rank. Believe me "average" players will mess up often enough that it shows. Also, if your teammates are really good, they wouldn't keep selecting you if you were crap.

someone asked earlier about second division. if there's interest, i will do it.

Nut Shot Scott wrote:someone asked earlier about second division. if there's interest, i will do it.

Let's see how much of TOFU takes up that list

I'm honestly quite interested