waynef100 wrote:thank you for your thoughtful answer!
so assuming you have the dice file and can predict roughly where in the dice file conquer cub is currently (very easy to do).... it *is* possible for someone to perform say... a 60 army attack at a fairly "quiet" time on conquer club and receive the EXACT SAME dice rolls for another 60 army attack later during another "quiet" time.
i ask you what the odds of that (2 60-army attacks generating the exact same sequence of rolls) happening in real life are ... i propose that number in real game play is very very very low.... but almost 1 on conquer club if you are aware of the current position in the dice file. on the second attempt you may not get all 60 rolls the same but you will get a large number the same including back-to-back-to-back-etc similar rolls.
No, this is an incorrect assumption based on exactly what I said previously. There are no quiet times on CC, therefore the number of times you will get exactly the same dice is miniscule, probably very close to the chances of the same happening in real life.
since this behavior does not really exist in real life but can be replicated on conquer cub i conclude the dice do not exhibit real-world behavior.
I would think that conclusion is easy to come to, based on the fact that you're not actually rolling physical dice on a physical surface
The difference between real-world dice and the dice on CC is negligible, I have proven it.
Then again, perhaps NASA could put a hold on their space exploration programs to address this situation with the CC dice, since it is of such grave import.
i understand you did analysis on the dice file but this file is replaced at unknown intervals. did you analyze the new one? clustering is a statistical fact and streaks will exist. maybe not in the file you examined but maybe in another it exists a lot.
Then your problem is with random.org, and not CC. If you do not trust their random number generation methods, and believe they are providing bugged out batches, that is a problem you must address with them. You may want to prepare yourself before approaching them, as they have already passed these tests on their random number generation methods:
* Frequency Test: Monobit
* Frequency Test: Block
* Runs Test
* Test for the Longest Runs of Ones in a Block
* Binary Matrix Rank Test
* Discrete Fourier Transform (Spectral Test)
* Non-Overlapping Template Matching Test
* Overlapping Template Matching Test
* Maurer's Universal Statistical Test
* Linear Complexity Test
* Serial Test
* Approximate Entropy Test
* Cumulative Sums Test
* Random Excursions Test
* Random Excursions Variant Test
* A chi-square test
* A test of runs above and below the median
* A reverse arrangements test
* An overlapping sums test
* A binary rank test for 32×32 matrices
just like counting cards... youre not predicting the next card... youre predicting the probability of good cards.
why is it so unreasonable to just read from the dice file randomly? you can have a much smaller dice file... about 7K lines total.
why is it so unreasonable to generate random dice on-the-fly?
the current design lends itself to be exploitable. im just trying to help
Explain to me your theory on how it can be exploited, and I will put my account on the line by testing it out. You may assume that I am the one doing the exploiting, as I have access to the file itself. Tell me, how do I accurately predict how many users are going to click "attack" between my clicks of attack. I'll be very interested to hear this one. BTW, you may not use a TARDIS in your theory
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:05 pm
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I do however also comment on when the dice go amazingly well so I reckon that means I'm allowed!
but I'm sure you clever chaps can come up with some method. This is a suggestion to spark someone else into finishing it off.