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Re: Dice

Postby dgz345 on Wed Dec 25, 2013 7:47 pm

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Re: Dice

Postby Ordep on Thu Dec 26, 2013 12:38 pm

Below you can find the probabilities for an army of x conquering an adjacent territory with an army of y (assuming random dice). So for example the probability that you can take out a territory with 3 defenders, using an army of 7 is 89%.

Code: Select all
       0      1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9     10
 1   100%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%
 2   100%    42%    11%     3%     1%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%     0%
 3   100%    75%    35%    16%     7%     3%     1%     0%     0%     0%     0%
 4   100%    92%    69%    45%    28%    16%    10%     5%     3%     2%     1%
 5   100%    97%    82%    66%    47%    34%    22%    15%     9%     6%     3%
 6   100%    99%    92%    79%    66%    50%    38%    27%    19%    12%     8%
 7   100%   100%    96%    89%    77%    66%    52%    41%    30%    23%    16%
 8   100%   100%    98%    94%    87%    76%    66%    54%    44%    33%    26%
 9   100%   100%    99%    97%    92%    85%    76%    66%    55%    46%    36%
10   100%   100%   100%    98%    96%    90%    84%    75%    67%    56%    48%
11   100%   100%   100%    99%    97%    94%    89%    83%    75%    67%    58%
12   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    97%    94%    89%    83%    75%    68%
13   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    98%    96%    93%    88%    82%    75%
14   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    98%    95%    92%    87%    82%
15   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    98%    97%    95%    92%    87%
16   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    98%    97%    94%    91%
17   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    99%    98%    96%    94%
18   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    99%    97%    96%
19   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    98%    97%
20   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    98%
21   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%    99%
22   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%    99%
23   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%   100%
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Re: Dice

Postby clowncar on Thu Dec 26, 2013 5:04 pm

Looking over other players/my own dice stats there seems to be a problem with too few 1's being rolled overall. This creates a slight swing that reduces the attackers advantage a little bit. All on the same playing field and ( at least in my games ) I still think 99% of my losses are either because I play bad or because I go second and can't recover as compared to just bad luck. I complain about dice as much as the next guy though... but I realize at the end of the day that I get the results I deserve ( unfortunately ).
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Re: Dice

Postby Jdsizzleslice on Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:08 pm

Yeah, once you get to a high rank, and pass your high score, the dice screw you over. Happens every time I get a new rank.
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Re: Dice

Postby KoE_Sirius on Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:58 pm

Jippd wrote:What is the average distribution of all those bar graphs?

Ummm what ? The dice on this site go in waves.Some weeks they are good.Some weeks they are bad.If they are truly random it would be some turns they are good and some turns they are bad.Yes of course if you roll 1000 times you'll probably get a fair average.However if you roll the dice 10 times on here.No way.
Risk2 or Axis&Allies online,The dice are much closer to playing with real dice.
Conspiracy solved. =D>
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Re: Dice

Postby degaston on Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:27 pm

KoE_Sirius wrote:
Jippd wrote:What is the average distribution of all those bar graphs?

Ummm what ? The dice on this site go in waves.Some weeks they are good.Some weeks they are bad.If they are truly random it would be some turns they are good and some turns they are bad.Yes of course if you roll 1000 times you'll probably get a fair average.However if you roll the dice 10 times on here.No way.
Risk2 or Axis&Allies online,The dice are much closer to playing with real dice.
Conspiracy solved. =D>
The graph he was referring to had players with 40,000 - 4.5 Million rolls. Almost everyone with a significant number of rolls has an average of 3.51, and I haven't seen anyone with less than 3.50. Here are your dice stats:
Image
They match everyone else's (except BigWham and Metsfanmax, who for some reason are the only people with a below average count of 2's)

Conspiracy on! :twisted:
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Re: Dice

Postby Dez Dispenser on Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:43 am

degaston wrote:
KoE_Sirius wrote:
Jippd wrote:What is the average distribution of all those bar graphs?

Ummm what ? The dice on this site go in waves.Some weeks they are good.Some weeks they are bad.If they are truly random it would be some turns they are good and some turns they are bad.Yes of course if you roll 1000 times you'll probably get a fair average.However if you roll the dice 10 times on here.No way.
Risk2 or Axis&Allies online,The dice are much closer to playing with real dice.
Conspiracy solved. =D>
The graph he was referring to had players with 40,000 - 4.5 Million rolls. Almost everyone with a significant number of rolls has an average of 3.51, and I haven't seen anyone with less than 3.50. Here are your dice stats:
Image
They match everyone else's (except BigWham and Metsfanmax, who for some reason are the only people with a below average count of 2's)

Conspiracy on! :twisted:


My dice average is at 3.47 :o :x

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Re: Dice

Postby degaston on Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:51 am

Dez Dispenser wrote:My dice average is at 3.47 :o :x

http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=654612

You've only played 19 games. Check again once you get to around 100. (Though I admit, your 4's, 5's and 6's suck right now.)
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Re: Dice

Postby KoE_Sirius on Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:52 pm

degaston wrote:
KoE_Sirius wrote:
Jippd wrote:What is the average distribution of all those bar graphs?

Ummm what ? The dice on this site go in waves.Some weeks they are good.Some weeks they are bad.If they are truly random it would be some turns they are good and some turns they are bad.Yes of course if you roll 1000 times you'll probably get a fair average.However if you roll the dice 10 times on here.No way.
Risk2 or Axis&Allies online,The dice are much closer to playing with real dice.
Conspiracy solved. =D>
The graph he was referring to had players with 40,000 - 4.5 Million rolls. Almost everyone with a significant number of rolls has an average of 3.51, and I haven't seen anyone with less than 3.50. Here are your dice stats:
Image
They match everyone else's (except BigWham and Metsfanmax, who for some reason are the only people with a below average count of 2's)

Conspiracy on! :twisted:

This confirms my quote.Except you turned 1000 rolls into 4.5 million. Roll ten times on any given day and you'll either have good or bad dice.Not average.Roll real dice 10 times and you'll get average dice.Plus rolling 100 troops vs 14 should never ever result in a loss.That's more like a computer glitch.
Conspiracy :-$
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Re: Dice

Postby degaston on Mon Dec 30, 2013 2:50 pm

KoE_Sirius wrote:
KoE_Sirius wrote:...Yes of course if you roll 1000 times you'll probably get a fair average....

This confirms my quote.Except you turned 1000 rolls into 4.5 million. Roll ten times on any given day and you'll either have good or bad dice.Not average.Roll real dice 10 times and you'll get average dice.Plus rolling 100 troops vs 14 should never ever result in a loss.That's more like a computer glitch.
Conspiracy :-$

I'm not sure which quote you're saying I confirmed. My point was that you should get a fair average (each number appears the same % of the time) over millions of rolls, but no one does. 1000 rolls is not enough to see the bias in the CC dice. About 40,000 is usually enough.

As for streaks, I've seen in threads that there are "millions of dice rolls here per day", so let's assume 60 million rolls per month. You can expect a streak of 12 of the same number in a row to occur once every 60 million rolls, so it's likely to happen to somebody about once a month, and shorter streaks will happen even more often.

If you consider that an attacker has a 29.26% chance of losing 2 troops on a roll, then about twice every three months, someone is going to attack and lose 30 troops in a row, while the defender loses none. These kinds of streaks are to be expected, but to the unlucky player that gets them, it makes the dice look unfair, so they start a thread to complain about them. I haven't seen any evidence that the CC dice are more or less streaky than you would expect from real life.
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Re: Dice

Postby KoE_Sirius on Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:50 pm

degaston wrote:
KoE_Sirius wrote:
KoE_Sirius wrote:...Yes of course if you roll 1000 times you'll probably get a fair average....

This confirms my quote.Except you turned 1000 rolls into 4.5 million. Roll ten times on any given day and you'll either have good or bad dice.Not average.Roll real dice 10 times and you'll get average dice.Plus rolling 100 troops vs 14 should never ever result in a loss.That's more like a computer glitch.
Conspiracy :-$

I'm not sure which quote you're saying I confirmed. My point was that you should get a fair average (each number appears the same % of the time) over millions of rolls, but no one does. 1000 rolls is not enough to see the bias in the CC dice. About 40,000 is usually enough.

As for streaks, I've seen in threads that there are "millions of dice rolls here per day", so let's assume 60 million rolls per month. You can expect a streak of 12 of the same number in a row to occur once every 60 million rolls, so it's likely to happen to somebody about once a month, and shorter streaks will happen even more often.

If you consider that an attacker has a 29.26% chance of losing 2 troops on a roll, then about twice every three months, someone is going to attack and lose 30 troops in a row, while the defender loses none. These kinds of streaks are to be expected, but to the unlucky player that gets them, it makes the dice look unfair, so they start a thread to complain about them. I haven't seen any evidence that the CC dice are more or less streaky than you would expect from real life.

I joined conquerclub in 2006 and played on MSN The Zone(Risk 2) for years prior to that.When I started to play on this site I had to change my game plan to compensate for the extreme variations of the dice.
I've had relatively good dice other the last couple of weeks.I still think the maker of this thread and all the other dice threads have valid points.Glitches are to be expected yes,but they shouldn't be construed as random.
rolling 100 troops vs 14 should never ever result in a loss
Anyway happy rolling.I've said enough and don't know who's watching :-$ :-$ :-$
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Re: Dice

Postby ke_rassa on Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:46 pm

Listen I'll be the first one to bitch when the dice hand the game to someone else or screw me over. HOWEVER random dice is what you should expect when playing this game. If you don't want to worry about dice I suggest you play Chess or Checkers. Have none of you ever played risk on an actually board or craps in a Casino???? When the dice are hot they are hot and when cold they are cold. You either try and ride it out or stop playing for awhile and hope they change. The best you can hope for is that it all evens out over time.
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Re: Dice

Postby PaRKoN on Tue Dec 31, 2013 5:39 am

That's interesting, could I get my dice stats? :D
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Re: Dice

Postby Jdsizzleslice on Tue Dec 31, 2013 2:08 pm

These dice aren't random anymore. There is no way I should lose over 700 points in 2 days, and almost 1000 in one week, just due to dice. This really needs to be looked at and revamped. I'm at the point to where I can't take this anymore. It's infuriating to know that every 13v5 is a loss. Every. Single. One. Multiplayer games that should be won with a simple 13v6. Loss. You can't eliminate someone. You lose the game. Every. Single Time. Had enough.
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Re: Dice

Postby codierose on Tue Dec 31, 2013 3:59 pm

Jdsizzleslice wrote:These dice aren't random anymore. There is no way I should lose over 700 points in 2 days, and almost 1000 in one week, just due to dice. This really needs to be looked at and revamped. I'm at the point to where I can't take this anymore. It's infuriating to know that every 13v5 is a loss. Every. Single. One. Multiplayer games that should be won with a simple 13v6. Loss. You can't eliminate someone. You lose the game. Every. Single Time. Had enough.

:lol: :lol:
can i ask was these autos in a freestyle game
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Re: Dice

Postby Jdsizzleslice on Tue Dec 31, 2013 4:24 pm

codierose wrote:
Jdsizzleslice wrote:These dice aren't random anymore. There is no way I should lose over 700 points in 2 days, and almost 1000 in one week, just due to dice. This really needs to be looked at and revamped. I'm at the point to where I can't take this anymore. It's infuriating to know that every 13v5 is a loss. Every. Single. One. Multiplayer games that should be won with a simple 13v6. Loss. You can't eliminate someone. You lose the game. Every. Single Time. Had enough.

:lol: :lol:
can i ask was these autos in a freestyle game

No. These were also in standard games and in non speeders. Now I'm currently down to 2600 and am about to lose another 100 points with the games I'm about to lose in the next few days.
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Re: Dice

Postby codierose on Tue Dec 31, 2013 4:49 pm

It's ok m8 it's just randombullshit.org happy new year
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Re: Dice

Postby nàme on Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:06 pm

Jdsizzleslice wrote:These dice aren't random anymore. There is no way I should lose over 700 points in 2 days, and almost 1000 in one week, just due to dice. This really needs to be looked at and revamped. I'm at the point to where I can't take this anymore. It's infuriating to know that every 13v5 is a loss. Every. Single. One. Multiplayer games that should be won with a simple 13v6. Loss. You can't eliminate someone. You lose the game. Every. Single Time. Had enough.


I can see how your 0% average is costing you games.
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Re: Dice

Postby Vaduzkrieg on Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:48 pm

Jdsizzleslice wrote:
codierose wrote:
Jdsizzleslice wrote:These dice aren't random anymore. There is no way I should lose over 700 points in 2 days, and almost 1000 in one week, just due to dice. This really needs to be looked at and revamped. I'm at the point to where I can't take this anymore. It's infuriating to know that every 13v5 is a loss. Every. Single. One. Multiplayer games that should be won with a simple 13v6. Loss. You can't eliminate someone. You lose the game. Every. Single Time. Had enough.

:lol: :lol:
can i ask was these autos in a freestyle game

No. These were also in standard games and in non speeders. Now I'm currently down to 2600 and am about to lose another 100 points with the games I'm about to lose in the next few days.


Ha! What are you complaining about? As soon as I hit 1000 points I go on epic 30 game losing streaks. Be thankful you can get that many points. I looked at my stats just recently and the last 5 rolls saw my opponent have 44% luck on attacks. I've also enjoyed getting the best drops (heavy sarcasm) in the history of the game.

Can we all agree that there is about 10% skill involved in this game? Who goes first, your drop and how badly the dice want to f*ck with you are far more important.
Last edited by Vaduzkrieg on Sat Jan 04, 2014 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dice

Postby Vaduzkrieg on Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:49 pm

And can anyone tell me why Neutrals are 10 times harder to defeat? Is there a place to see your stats vs neutrals?
I have a couple buddies who have all noticed you get killed a lot more when attacking them.
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Re: Dice

Postby Vaduzkrieg on Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:00 pm

Just because it bears repeating. I was on defence with the attacker having a 8-6 advantage. He doesn't lose a single man. Next turn I have the same situation but I am the attacker. I lose every man. Watched the dude roll nothing but 6's on a 6-2 attack. Then I lose a 4-1.

These dice are fucking stupid. FUCKING STUPID.
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Re: Dice

Postby nàme on Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:14 pm

Vaduzkrieg wrote:And can anyone tell me why Neutrals are 10 times harder to defeat? Is there a place to see your stats vs neutrals?
I have a couple buddies who have all noticed you get killed a lot more when attacking them.


Click on "Dice Stats" on the side menu (or your profile), then click "Neutral Player" option. For better validity, however, go to the "Battle Outcomes" tab and do the same thing. You're about even.
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Re: Dice

Postby Dez Dispenser on Sat Jan 11, 2014 10:31 am

degaston wrote:
Dez Dispenser wrote:My dice average is at 3.47 :o :x

http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=654612

You've only played 19 games. Check again once you get to around 100. (Though I admit, your 4's, 5's and 6's suck right now.)


However most of my games have been on World 2.1 so I am rolling large amounts of dice per game
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Re: Dice

Postby degaston on Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:47 am

Dez Dispenser wrote:
degaston wrote:
Dez Dispenser wrote:My dice average is at 3.47 :o :x

http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=654612

You've only played 19 games. Check again once you get to around 100. (Though I admit, your 4's, 5's and 6's suck right now.)


However most of my games have been on World 2.1 so I am rolling large amounts of dice per game

You're at 16,665 rolls. I think it takes about 200k rolls before the trend is fully evident.
universalchiro wrote:@degaston: whatever dude you win, you have it all figured out. You have out smarted even God.
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Re: Dice

Postby ntcbadabing on Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:03 pm

Something to consider is there are many other strategies involved in this game. Some don't rely so heavily on luck of dice / drops, altho that is of course a big part. If someone really believes the only way to win is if the dice are in your favor, drops are in your favor, and you play first then maybe that person should try expanding on strategies. Considering it is mathematically proven in this thread that CC dice do not follow either understanding of 'random,' but this thread has also proven the CC dice is 'fair' in that we all share the same exceptions to 'random' dice, then your strategy should be adjusted accordingly. That should give you an advantage over those that don't fully understand CC dice as we now do. I can tell you after reading this thread, I have changed up my strategy a bit.
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