Vaduzkrieg wrote:Disagree. The dice decide the game. I've seen it time and time again. The times I win the dice totally f*ck over my opponent and I get ridiculously lucky.
I had a South America in a game recently. I had a 5 man on the border defending. The attacker had 3 men. He won the battle. Didn't lose a man. Then took 2 more territories with singles on them. End turn. I have never, ever, ever won 3-5. I am purposely trying to attack 3-5 or 4-6 or 6-8 now to see if I can win one. So far I've done it about 20 times and I always lose. You can't win when the dice roll like that.
I took a look at your battle outcomes, and I can believe that when you win it's because the dice were good to you. But when you lose, I think it's mostly about how you are playing. Here are your battle stats (with some additional calculations):
... and here are mine for comparison:
The first thing that stands out is your assault rate (top right) of 53.72% is too low. This doesn't necessarily mean that you should attack more, in fact, I think you are attacking way too much. In the lower section, I can see that you're attacking much too often with 1v1, 2v2, and 1v2. All of these situations give you very bad odds, and should be avoided unless overridden by bonus considerations, or if the game is already won and you're trying to end it sooner. When you attack with bad odds in other situations, not only do you lose more troops, but you leave your borders weak, and make yourself an easy target for all of your opponents.
Even when you win with these attacks, you leave yourself with a very weak border that is easy for your opponent to counterattack. This leads to your biggest problem - your opponents are able to attack you 3v1 over 42% of the time! You are giving them an enormous advantage in dice odds when you spread yourself out too thin and leave your borders weakly protected. In my opinion, you're even attacking too much using 2v1. Yes, it has fairly good odds, but win or lose, you're left with a border that has only 2 troops on it. It's usually better to wait until your next turn, add an extra troop to the territory so that you're rolling 3v1, and then if you win you'll still have a border with 3 troops on it.
The bottom row of each table shows you and your opponents' expected win rates based on how much of each type of attack is performed. By attacking when you have fewer than 4 troops, and not defending your borders properly, you're giving your opponents a 3% advantage in their expected win rate over yours. That
, not the dice, is the reason you don't do well. Nothing else you do is going to help until you learn when to stop attacking.