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Geger wrote:What is the simplest way to calculate, how many 1's can we take (with good probability)? Let's say we start with x+1 troops.
Dukasaur wrote:Geger wrote:What is the simplest way to calculate, how many 1's can we take (with good probability)? Let's say we start with x+1 troops.
The simplest way is to use the Assault Odds add-on.
http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=83451
However, if I find myself in a position where I have to do it manually, I just ballpark it as three for every two terts with a 1 on it. (Plus of course a basic 4 to sustain the attack.) So, with seven troops I expect to safely take two terts with 1s on them, with ten troops I expect to take 4, with thirteen 6, and so on.
laughingcavalier wrote:Duke’s assumptions are way too conservative – the attacker’s advantage is much greater than that. For my rule of thumb I work on the assumptions of 1 loss for every 3 singles killed, and do my last attack when I have 3 troops.
So starting with 4 troops I expect to kill 2
With 5 – kill 2
With 6 – kill 3
With 7 – kill 4
With 8 – kill 4
With 9 - kill 5
With 10 – kill 6
With 11 – kill 6
With 12 – kill 7
With 13 – kill 8
Or something like that – and I couldn’t possibly put it into a formula, that’s much too clever for me.
RiffArt wrote:To kill a 1 troop territory you have a 34% chance to lose at least one troop (perhaps what laughingcavalier is thinking of?), or to put it another way, 2 out of 3 times you attack a 1 troop territory you won't lose anyone.
However, you can "expect" to lose a little over 0.5 troops for every such territory you capture. (In fact, for each 1000 such territories you will lose 516 troops). The difference between the two comes because sometimes you will lose 2 or more troops before taking a territory. This is where Duke's 3:2 ratio comes in (1 lost troop + 1 left in each territory for each two territories taken).
For a formula, if you have x + 1 troops in your starting territory as OP stated, you can "expect" to take (assuming you don't attack 2v1 at the end, that's up to you):
Terts = ( x - 2 ) * 2/3
So starting with 5 troops, x = 4, you can expect to take 1 territory, 2 with a little luck.
With 6 - kill 2 (6 troops = 3 to occupy territories including your original + 1 killed + 2 extra at the end which are insufficient to attack 3v1)
With 7 - kill 2 (3 with luck)
With 8 - kill 3
With 9 - kill 4 (9 troops = 5 to occupy territories + 2 killed + 2 extra at the end which are insufficient to attack 3v1)
laughingcavalier wrote:Duke’s assumptions are way too conservative – the attacker’s advantage is much greater than that. For my rule of thumb I work on the assumptions of 1 loss for every 3 singles killed, and do my last attack when I have 3 troops.
So starting with 4 troops I expect to kill 2
With 5 – kill 2
With 6 – kill 3
With 7 – kill 4
With 8 – kill 4
With 9 - kill 5
With 10 – kill 6
With 11 – kill 6
With 12 – kill 7
With 13 – kill 8
Or something like that – and I couldn’t possibly put it into a formula, that’s much too clever for me.
FreeFalling123 wrote:Look guys I'm not trying to be an asshole but this rough estimate shit is donkey business. If we are analyzing this properly it's simply +.66 on each extra attacker
4v1s = .66 kill on average
5v1s = 1.33
6v1s = 2
7v1s = 2.66
It's not rocket science. If you want to add in 3v1s and 2v1s to
Those calculations you are talking about +.58 and +.42 to the average kill ratio so of you have 5 stacks 3v1 to try for 1s then on average you will get .58x5or 2.9 stacks
Dukasaur wrote:FreeFalling123 wrote:Look guys I'm not trying to be an asshole but this rough estimate shit is donkey business. If we are analyzing this properly it's simply +.66 on each extra attacker
4v1s = .66 kill on average
5v1s = 1.33
6v1s = 2
7v1s = 2.66
It's not rocket science. If you want to add in 3v1s and 2v1s to
Those calculations you are talking about +.58 and +.42 to the average kill ratio so of you have 5 stacks 3v1 to try for 1s then on average you will get .58x5or 2.9 stacks
Not even sure what you're trying to say. For instance, 6v1 = 2? Does that mean if you have 6 on tert you expect to kill 2 terts with it? After your first kill, one attacker advances, so at best you have a 5v1 on your second attack, and that's if you didn't lose any on the first attack. There's no way you can comfortably expect to kill 2 1s with only a 6. If you didn't have to advance after the first attack, I could see you taking a chance. That advance throws your expectations right off.
Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying.
FreeFalling123 wrote:Look guys I'm not trying to be an asshole but this rough estimate shit is donkey business. If we are analyzing this properly it's simply +.66 on each extra attacker
4v1s = .66 kill on average
5v1s = 1.33
6v1s = 2
7v1s = 2.66
It's not rocket science. If you want to add in 3v1s and 2v1s to
Those calculations you are talking about +.58 and +.42 to the average kill ratio so of you have 5 stacks 3v1 to try for 1s then on average you will get .58x5or 2.9 stacks
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