Conquer Club

trinicardinal wrote:

Donelladan wrote:I am not sure I understand everything correctly in your post agentcom, but are you saying that the probability of having 5 times Cains Metro out of 70 attempts, and the probability of drawing the same map 5 times out of 70 attempts are differents? Because those 2 probability should be the same.

Not quite... the first situation specifies a particular map from the start which means that you have to pull that particular map only... the same thing could have happened with any other map. The odds of ANY map coming up 5 times are different to A SPECIFIC map coming up 5 times. Its a funny thing but that little difference - ANY instead of SPECIFIC makes a huge difference to the odds.

loutil wrote:

trinicardinal wrote:

Donelladan wrote:I am not sure I understand everything correctly in your post agentcom, but are you saying that the probability of having 5 times Cains Metro out of 70 attempts, and the probability of drawing the same map 5 times out of 70 attempts are differents? Because those 2 probability should be the same.

Not quite... the first situation specifies a particular map from the start which means that you have to pull that particular map only... the same thing could have happened with any other map. The odds of ANY map coming up 5 times are different to A SPECIFIC map coming up 5 times. Its a funny thing but that little difference - ANY instead of SPECIFIC makes a huge difference to the odds.

Actually, it is a large difference. It could be a times 200 change. We have to have the specified map five times. Compared to possibly only needing the random map 4 times in 69 maps.

Bonogi wrote:Instead of a grumbling post from someone who doesn't have an understanding of what randomness looks like I thought this was going to be about a system for dynamic randomly generated maps which sounded like a cool idea!

loutil wrote:I checked my own random games and I also have a strong variance for the Cairns map. It has been the random choice for me 8 times out of 386 games. I once drew the map 3 times in 6 games over 2 days. I am now curious if others have this same variance?

agentcom wrote:

loutil wrote:I checked my own random games and I also have a strong variance for the Cairns map. It has been the random choice for me 8 times out of 386 games. I once drew the map 3 times in 6 games over 2 days. I am now curious if others have this same variance?

Looks like I've got it 3 times in 486 attempts (since they started keeping track of random). I know there are a few more maps now than there have ever been, but this is still a little bit on the high side.

Now someone please post that they've never or rarely drawn this map, so that I don't have to go through the same mindboggledness that happened when I found out that the dice number generator was broken.

For those of you wondering how to easily do this, just do a game search to find out how many random games you have. Then do one for your Cairns Metro games and count how many are listed as random.

owenshooter wrote:hurrah!!! joined a random map team game and ended up with the suckfest called "quad cities"... never seen it, never heard of it and apparently the maker has never studied any sort of graphic design... what a dreadful map... i am sorry... just dreadful... the black jesus has spoken...-el Jesus negro

owenshooter wrote:hurrah!!! joined a random map team game and ended up with the suckfest called "quad cities"... never seen it, never heard of it and apparently the maker has never studied any sort of graphic design... what a dreadful map... i am sorry... just dreadful... the black jesus has spoken...-el Jesus negro

owenshooter wrote:i still find it hard to believe that random games are truly random. here are my last few random games on maps that i would NEVER play a game on...
i just can't believe this is random... a veritable cornucopia of CC suck-fest maps...

-USApocalypse (Random)
-Poker Club (Random)
The Citadel (Random)
-Draknor - Level 1 (Random)
-WWI Ottoman Empire (Random)
-City Mogul (Random)
-Rorke's Drift (Random)
-Lunar War (Random)

i don't get it...-Jésus noir

jefjef wrote:

owenshooter wrote:hurrah!!! joined a random map team game and ended up with the suckfest called "quad cities"... never seen it, never heard of it and apparently the maker has never studied any sort of graphic design... what a dreadful map... i am sorry... just dreadful... the black jesus has spoken...-el Jesus negro

I'm in the Quad city area. It is befitting of a dreadful map seeing how it is kind of a suckfest and dreadful place.

So stop crying - the map is correct.

Bonogi wrote:Instead of a grumbling post from someone who doesn't have an understanding of what randomness looks like I thought this was going to be about a system for dynamic randomly generated maps which sounded like a cool idea!

Kaskavel wrote:Indeed, they are not random. Just like the dice. Whenever a random map encounter occurs, the odds are favouring the opponent's favourite maps and avoid your own. Confirmed. They are not random. Just like the dice.
And the spoils.
And especialy the drop.
It is always bad.
For both players.

agentcom wrote:Keep in mind that the probability of getting 70 different maps in 70 tries is pretty low. Somewhere on the order of 1 in a million tries. In other words, you're almost certain to have some repeats. You can figure this out by picking one map at random to start with. Assuming 200-ish maps, you then have a 199/200 chance of the second map being unique. Then 198/200. Etc. On down to 131/200. By multiplying all these probabilities together, you'd see that the odds are pretty low of getting 70 unique maps.

But your question is more complicated. There's the easy, but misleading question of "what are my chances of getting Cairns Metro five times in 70 games?" That's easy to solve because you can use the binomial theorem to figure out what your chances are of getting Cairns Metro 5 times out of 70 attempts. Turns out your chances of getting Cairns Metro 5 times in 70 maps is around one in 36,000 or so. Not very common, but interestingly it's far, far more common than getting 70 unique maps.

But really the above paragraph poses the wrong question. The question should be what are the chances of getting any map 5 times (or more) out of 70 draws. I'm heading back to my stats text book right now, and I think a good way of looking at this would be the Poisson Distribution (though I think there are other ways). Alternatively, I believe that you could multiply the by the 200 maps to approximate a solution. Either way, I end up with a probability of about 1/150 that you end up drawing a map 5 times within 70 games.

I wouldn't call this a likely result, but I don't think that it's outside the bounds of normal variation. Someone should check my math and application of statistics though because I'm no expert in this stuff.

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