Conquer Club

think hotshot is going down... well thats not the worst case scenario

if he is telling the truth we lose a VT. and know where to search day 2.
if he is lying.. we lose a liar.

its not the worst thing that could happen to us.

virus90 wrote:think hotshot is going down... well thats not the worst case scenario

if he is telling the truth we lose a VT. and know where to search day 2.
if he is lying.. we lose a liar.

its not the worst thing that could happen to us.

It is sad when the player that sticks his neck out to give us a lead ends up as the "safe lynch", while those that avoid the conversation get a pass.

I hope you are right about Hotshot. Anything less than a mafia lynch is a setback IMO.

dd515087 wrote:@strike I don't think that's entirely fair, but yes I have stuck mostly to the discussion about the Top 3 and the NRA just like everyone else

I still think HotShot is a safer vote than Dj at this point so I will vote HotShot for now in case I can't make it back on before the deadline. I think that puts him at L-1 if no one has changed their votes

Just as an FYI, there is no such thing as a L-1 or L-2 in a storr game, the lynch happens at day end for whomever has the plurality of the votes.

Voting for me as a "safe" vote does not sound like scum hunting to me...

Unofficial vote count, ~3.5 hours until deadline.

HotShot53 (10): mtamburini, aage, pancakemix, strike wolf, streaker, theforgivenone, legionnare, charm, jonty125, dd515087
djfireside (4) : Killuminati19, HotShot53, jwiedlin, grt
mtamburini (2): crasp, zivel
no lynch (2): whatsausage, Iron butterfly
Iron Butterfly (1): Metsfanmax

Not yet voted: djfireside, virus90

had to keep my previous message short cause i had to have dinner. so now a bit more text:

jwiedlin wrote:

virus90 wrote:think hotshot is going down... well thats not the worst case scenario

if he is telling the truth we lose a VT. and know where to search day 2.
if he is lying.. we lose a liar.

its not the worst thing that could happen to us.

It is sad when the player that sticks his neck out to give us a lead ends up as the "safe lynch", while those that avoid the conversation get a pass.

I hope you are right about Hotshot. Anything less than a mafia lynch is a setback IMO.

emotionally i do agree with you on this. and im not particularly happy with it either. if he tells the truth its extremly sad that he is possibly "punnished" like this.
rationally its not the worst thing that could happen.

scenario 1: hotshot is telling the truth and gets lynched
-> we lose a VT
-> mtam or dj is lying
-> we gain n1 with some powerroles to gather information so we have an increased chance to make the right descision day 2.
scenario 2: hotshot is lying and we lynch him
-> we lynch hotshot (probably mafia then, why lie else?)
-> Mtam and DJ both still alive (probably both PR's)

Scenario 3: hotshot is telling the truth, we dont lynch him
-> lets say a 50 - 50 chance between mtam and DJ --> 50/50 PR or mafia PR death. (the percentages are debateable)
-> if me misslynch today, we still wont know if hotshot was right so the next day would be all about is hotshot right or not (we do have information from n1 then though so that might help) . but this scenario is about him telling the truth so next day we lynch the other.
so lets put it at 50 % chance of killing a powerrole and a mafia in 2 days, 50% chance of killing a mafia day 1.

scanrio 4: hotshot is lying and we dont lynch him.
-> 100% chance of lynching a powerrole day 1. (probably town)
-> day 2 we have to decide if hotshot was telling the truth or not. with the possible night intel we got. without night intel for statistical purposes 50-50 chance of lynching mafia (hotshot) or powerrole.
-> worst case scenario: day 3 we lynch hotshot having lost pick 1 and 2 powerroles.

so after 2 days this might have happened:
scenario 1: VT lost, reasonable chance of finding the mafia day 2
scenario 2: mafia lost day 1.
scenario 3: 50% chance of losing a powerrole day 1, day 2 mafia. 50% the other way around.
scenario 4: thats just fucked up. possibly lose 2 powerroles in first 2 days.

So although its harsh the scennarios 1 and 2 are just better then the 3 and 4 in which we dont lynch hotshot. the potential loss of a VT is worth less then the potential loss of a PR.. although if he speaks the truth it is extremly harsh to be killed like that.

so ill join the hotshot voting camp

The only problem with your scenario's and ratios, virus, is that you're not weighting them based on what chance they have of being true. Do you think I'm lying?

You also missed the scenario that both mtam and Dj are both scum, in which case you have a 100% chance of lynching scum between them, and a 50-50 chance of getting the non-NRA member first, and if we get the NRA first then the other is open for investigations without risk.

Vote Count Day 1

charm (0): streaker
Whatsausage(0): strike wolf
mtamburini (2): HotShot53, crasp, jonty125, Zivel
HotShot53 (11): mtamburini, aage, pancakemix, strike wolf, streaker, TheForgivenOne, legionnare, charm, jonty125, dd515087, virus90
Iron Butterfly (1): grt, Metsfanmax, jwiedlin
Djfireside(4): Killuminati19, HotShot53, jwiedlin, grt

No Lynch (2): Whatsausage, Killuminati19, Iron Butterfly

Currently HotShot53 is set to be lynched with 3 votes.

Currently 1 players have not placed votes
Djfireside.

Voting is Mandatory!
You may vote No lynch, but you are not allowed to abstain from voting.
Deadline is 10/8 17:00 Under 3 hours from this post.

If you are VT hotshot Id like to hear the rest of your reads on other people in the game since you've been tunneled on DJ and I. If your scum just stay quiet

mtamburini wrote:If you are VT hotshot Id like to hear the rest of your reads on other people in the game since you've been tunneled on DJ and I. If your scum just stay quiet

Lol, I was already planning to do that during my lunch break, since my lynching seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.

jwiedlin wrote:Dj made an indirect statement that he was not the NRA member (I didn't get the hot role). Furthermore, he offered additional information that was not asked for (since it isn't any fun). He also tried to bury this statement with separate topics before and after. This behavior is indicative of someone that is lying.

In what universe is this a compelling argument?

@pancake - Still waiting on this dj appearance I was promised.

Ok, here is my customary "last thoughts of a towny about to be mislynched" post to give reads on everyone, for what it's worth coming from a VT who really has no more info than anyone else, other than after tonight it will be proved I was town and not trying to mislead anyone.

1 Djfireside - last post was yesterday where he gave the "I am reading back through everything again" excuse, but then didn't follow up with any thoughts on it. Never really responded to my statement that he or mtam was the NRA member. Has only made 2 short posts today, and only 1 short post during the ban phase. Has been more active in the other mafia game going on currently. Hasn't made a vote yet today. If he doesn't vote, can he be modkilled? At least that way either the NRA member will die, or after his death and mine everyone would know mtam was the NRA member lol.

Overall... I get the feeling he is scummarizing, trying to stay under the radar, and would be my guess as to being the NRA member, and probably scum.

2 mtamburini - has been his usual self making a ton of posts, once he woke up after I voted for him at first. Not sure why he went for me rather than believing me and going for Dj, he has been known to create OMGUS cases, so that could have been part of the reason. As I said when I unvoted him, if he was the NRA member he probably should have tried to build a case elsewhere, as lynching me can put the focus back on him tomorrow.

Overall... leaning slightly town at this point, however there is a chance that both mtam and Dj are scum. mtam went after me rather than Dj, and Dj in 1 of his 2 posts complimented mtam's reasoning in going after me. Could be buddying signs.

3 HotShot53 - VT, as will be proven when I am lynched in a bit over an hour.

4 Killuminati19 - started off slow, has made more reasonable posts recently. Could just have a favorable impression since he agrees with me lol. Overall, neutral feeling

5 Virus90 - has seemed town in his posts, and has some logic in his vote on me. Overall, would lean town.

6 Metsfanmax - mixed feelings, voted to ban godfather originally, then switched to an already banned role rather than nra member. Voted for the inactive IB rather than try to figure out the main topic of the day. Overall, I would lean slightly scum feeling

7 jonty125 - originally flipped a coin between mtam and Dj, said he believed me, today mtam swayed him into voting for me. Not much else of substance, so neutral opinion.

8 grt - has seemed town in role banning and today, in my opinion. I'd lean town on him.

9 legionnare - seemed townish in the role banning phase, nothing during the day to sway me either way. Overall, neutral to slight town.

10 streaker - started a case on charm because she went for assassin, which wasn't a bad role to ban in my opinion. Nothing in particular jumps out otherwise... so overall neutral to slight scum feeling

11 crasp - voted godfather in the ban phase, which I think was suspicious. Joined my original case on mtam, later said I was the safest bet instead, but didn't change his vote. If Dj is scum and mtam is town, I would consider crasp strong scum. For now, I'll go slight scum.

12 charm - is her usual crazy self. Not much read on her, so am neutral

13 Whatsausage - nothing in particular stood out, overall neutral to slight town feeling

14 dd515087 - was busy with school and missed the role ban time. overall feeling on his posts is more on the scummy side, so I'd go with slight scum feeling

15 aage - although he doesn't believe me and voted for me, my overall feeling on his posts is more townish

16 Zivel - has been relatively inactive, tried to get rockstar banned. Not much to go on, so I'll go scummarizing and scum feeling

17 jwiedlin - started the role ban discussion with the worst roles, and I agreed with his choices. Overall today he seems town also (doesn't hurt that he agrees with me lol) So I get a town feeling from him

18 pancakemix - voted godfather.. that is scummish in my book. Doesn't believe me, and FOS'd everyone who agreed with me, so obviously I don't like that lol. So I'd got with leaning scum for now

19 strike wolf - soft-claimed being vanilla. Not surprising for pick 19... but not sure why he'd do it, other than so he could get it out of the way if questioned later and didn't want to say he picked a scum role? Otherwise though he's seemed more townish (even though he voted me)... so I'd actually lean slight town

20 Iron Butterfly - MIA mostly. Skipped the role ban phase although he posted in the other mafia thread during that time. Voted no lynch today, said he was busy with RL but would readup and come back and revote, but hasn't yet. Could be scummarizing, could be actually busy. Neutral to slight scum read, would try to get him more active.

21 Some7hingCLEVER TheForgivenOne - Some7hing disappeared, and TFO made one real post since then. So neutral until TFO posts more

Well, I hope the above post will be of some benefit to people... takes long enough to make thoughts about 21 people lol. Will see how I did when the game ends I guess. Good luck to town, hope my sacrifice wasn't in vain and I will have saved some power roles from hitting the NRA member. Guess it's all my fault for missing the voting deadline and not getting in the deciding vote to ban it in the first place lol.

HotShot53 wrote:Well, I hope the above post will be of some benefit to people... takes long enough to make thoughts about 21 people lol. Will see how I did when the game ends I guess. Good luck to town, hope my sacrifice wasn't in vain and I will have saved some power roles from hitting the NRA member. Guess it's all my fault for missing the voting deadline and not getting in the deciding vote to ban it in the first place lol.

The good news is that if you are VT town, you have narrowed down one guaranteed scum member to two possible candidates. That's quite a useful function for VT in the grander scheme of things.

Sadly I hate to play off my kids cause it sounds so contrite but I have been up since 11PM last night and just happy to be out of the hospital.

I did read up and had questions for Hotshot on their witchhunt and why they were going for it since obviously if they are town then they were doing it for a reason they wouly lynch themselves for. This didnt sit with me well but I can understand the measure and in reading through some of their content, I tend to believe them while I dont agree with their method I can understand what they were trying to do. I have a feeling they are town and while I wanted to vote them out of principle in seeing how everything has gone I believe them. Last night I came to this conclusion cause of the forum title when roles were out on if you didnt get a role.

You did make good points and I will try to be more active as with all comments I have not been and unfortunately I have fallen victim to RL trouble again but will do better to settle it. Now im going to sleep after I finish my work and will see how this all plays out and you did what you could with what you were given Hotshot.

fp aage

aage wrote:

HotShot53 wrote:Well, I hope the above post will be of some benefit to people... takes long enough to make thoughts about 21 people lol. Will see how I did when the game ends I guess. Good luck to town, hope my sacrifice wasn't in vain and I will have saved some power roles from hitting the NRA member. Guess it's all my fault for missing the voting deadline and not getting in the deciding vote to ban it in the first place lol.

The good news is that if you are VT town, you have narrowed down one guaranteed scum member to two possible candidates. That's quite a useful function for VT in the grander scheme of things.

Thats what ive been saying!

Killuminati19 wrote:@pancake - Still waiting on this dj appearance I was promised.

Was gonna check in and say I was surprised as well, but got sidetracked by work stuff. Nevertheless there it is, if too late to make a difference.

Day 1 has ended.


Off with his head the crowed roared!



With that HotShot53 was lynched!

show

Night 1 Has started you have until 10/10 17:00 to submit night actions.
Reminder there is no restriction on chatting in this game.

I'm pretty well convinced hotshot is telling the truth and that he will be lynched. My vote can stay where it is. Those left standing can resume the debate tomorrow.

Dj you got some explaining to do

Well, what do you know, I actually was a VT after all lol. Good luck to town!

mtamburini wrote:Dj you got some explaining to do

So either you are Dj are scum NRA. You pushed to lynch Hotshot pretty hard and led the wagon on him. I would say that you have some explaining to do as well my friend.

Zivel wrote:

mtamburini wrote:Dj you got some explaining to do

So either you are Dj are scum NRA. You pushed to lynch Hotshot pretty hard and led the wagon on him. I would say that you have some explaining to do as well my friend.

Whats my end game as mafia and/or NRA for lynching hotshot?

You have done nothing productive d1 I think you got some explaining to do as well.

mtamburini wrote:Dj you got some explaining to do

You both do and right now I am having trouble seeing a scenario where day 2 can realistically end without both of you claiming. Well I could see where one of you comes out with an unbelievably unrealistic role choice but thats about it.

Well as I predicted Hotshot was telling the truth which is going to lead to some interesting debates about Dj and mtam. Roll on day 2. Will be interesting to see who mafia go after. Thanks Hotshot for the summary of your thoughts and sad to see you go so early.