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BigBallinStalin wrote:Gillipig wrote:BigBallinStalin wrote:shickingbrits wrote:Great, so we both agree that China should continue steadily onwards in its economic and foreign policies, that a shift in government could pave the way towards some disastrous outcomes (Taiwan's elections are often decided on the parties policies towards China, in reverse it may not be so pretty), that the populace are generally content with this and in many ways it opens the doors for corruption, but frees the hands of the government to act efficiently and for others to take the words of the Chinese government to the bank on long-term policies.
I'm not so certain.
Feel free to elaborate more on that. What is going to stop China's economic growth in the near future?
That's something different. China will most likely continue growing. It takes a lot more than something as severe as the Great Depression (for the US) to stop long-run growth. You'd need something like prolonged civil war in an arbitrarily drawn political boundary which none of groups in conflict can dominant (e.g. Dem Rep of Congo), but I think the DRC still grows. Main point here is that growth tends to never stop.
So with that in mind, "near future"... well, its shadow banking problem could blow up in China's face. As China keeps developing its deep water (or blue water) navy, it'll be more likely to beat up some country without nuclear weapons (since the cost will be lower). That could have ugly ramifications. Maybe there'll be a recession and the Big Dogs in the PRC step on the nationalist gas to distract the people with a war.
I'm not sure. I'm not as certain as shickingbrits for reasons already mentioned. He seems to possess a crystal ball which simply spits back what he wants to see.
Gillipig wrote:BigBallinStalin wrote:Gillipig wrote:BigBallinStalin wrote:shickingbrits wrote:Great, so we both agree that China should continue steadily onwards in its economic and foreign policies, that a shift in government could pave the way towards some disastrous outcomes (Taiwan's elections are often decided on the parties policies towards China, in reverse it may not be so pretty), that the populace are generally content with this and in many ways it opens the doors for corruption, but frees the hands of the government to act efficiently and for others to take the words of the Chinese government to the bank on long-term policies.
I'm not so certain.
Feel free to elaborate more on that. What is going to stop China's economic growth in the near future?
That's something different. China will most likely continue growing. It takes a lot more than something as severe as the Great Depression (for the US) to stop long-run growth. You'd need something like prolonged civil war in an arbitrarily drawn political boundary which none of groups in conflict can dominant (e.g. Dem Rep of Congo), but I think the DRC still grows. Main point here is that growth tends to never stop.
So with that in mind, "near future"... well, its shadow banking problem could blow up in China's face. As China keeps developing its deep water (or blue water) navy, it'll be more likely to beat up some country without nuclear weapons (since the cost will be lower). That could have ugly ramifications. Maybe there'll be a recession and the Big Dogs in the PRC step on the nationalist gas to distract the people with a war.
I'm not sure. I'm not as certain as shickingbrits for reasons already mentioned. He seems to possess a crystal ball which simply spits back what he wants to see.
A country like China with a long history of "Divine Emperors" and other totalitarian governments is not likely to experience significant internal strife just because it's not a proper democracy. Public approval is much more tied to the competence of the government, as long as the government is competent, the chinese people will not oppose it. That is an incredible strength when your country is doing well financially.
To me it's nonsensical to predict that China's economy will falter because of internal opposition, as China with it's history is only likely to experience internal opposition after it has shown it's not competent, which in our day and age almost exclusively translates to economic recession. So a economic recession caused by a civil war is something I find highly unlikely in China's case, a civil war erupting because of economic recession is a possibility but it won't precede the economic recession but rather follow it. Your other scenarios were a banking crisis and various outwards expansion caused problems. Well a banking crisis is always a possibility, it seems no country has really figured out a way to control their banks properly, so I won't write that off. The other scenarios dealing with war caused instability however I think we can more or less write off. You did not specifically say it but I assume when you said "ugly ramifications" you're primarily thinking about international sanctions strong enough to seriously hurt the Chinese economy, and not "military intervention" (haha, just the thought of that amuses me), well keep in mind how unable the European Union has been to apply proper sanctions even to Russian expansion, which is happening in their own backyard, how do you think the west is going to react to Chinese expansion thousands of miles away from them? My guess is not with harsh sanctions especially given how much we are all depending on their goods for our own economies. I think it's a fair to assume there are not going to be strong western sanctions on China if they swallow Burma for example, India will be pissed though.
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