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One year ago, March 2020

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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:29 am

Duk said:

I'm surprised to hear you say that masks are your biggest complaint


I teach and do lots of public speaking (Reading aloud from Scripture, for example) so that diction and clear delivery of information by my voice is very important. The masks make that difficult for me. And my glasses fog up, since hay fever and allergies cause me to avoid wearing my contact lenses. And as I age, hearing clearly is made even more difficult when the speaker wears a mask.

My son wears a mask to do yard work (PRE-COVID), since he has bad allergies to pollen and/or other outside irritants. I know there are some good things about wearing a mask, but....

And I often feel that my oxygen intake is hindered, too. And it is constant, going in and out of buildings. I have often gone back to my car to get my mask, after I start walking toward a store or other place. Masks are an irritant and inconvenience, not a major problem.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:35 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:
Duk said:

I'm surprised to hear you say that masks are your biggest complaint


I teach and do lots of public speaking (Reading aloud from Scripture, for example) so that diction and clear delivery of information by my voice is very important. The masks make that difficult for me. And my glasses fog up, since hay fever and allergies cause me to avoid wearing my contact lenses. And as I age, hearing clearly is made even more difficult when the speaker wears a mask.

My son wears a mask to do yard work (PRE-COVID), since he has bad allergies to pollen and/or other outside irritants. I know there are some good things about wearing a mask, but....

And I often feel that my oxygen intake is hindered, too. And it is constant, going in and out of buildings. I have often gone back to my car to get my mask, after I start walking toward a store or other place. Masks are an irritant and inconvenience, not a major problem.


Maybe you should try one of those face shields (at least for the times when you are doing public speaking)? It does not restrict breathing at all, and in most localities it is considered acceptable in place of a mouth/nose covering mask. They start around $2/each
saxitoxin wrote:deaths among the unvaccinated are higher.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:40 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
Duk said:

I'm surprised to hear you say that masks are your biggest complaint


I teach and do lots of public speaking (Reading aloud from Scripture, for example) so that diction and clear delivery of information by my voice is very important. The masks make that difficult for me. And my glasses fog up, since hay fever and allergies cause me to avoid wearing my contact lenses. And as I age, hearing clearly is made even more difficult when the speaker wears a mask.

My son wears a mask to do yard work (PRE-COVID), since he has bad allergies to pollen and/or other outside irritants. I know there are some good things about wearing a mask, but....

And I often feel that my oxygen intake is hindered, too. And it is constant, going in and out of buildings. I have often gone back to my car to get my mask, after I start walking toward a store or other place. Masks are an irritant and inconvenience, not a major problem.


Maybe you should try one of those face shields (at least for the times when you are doing public speaking)? It does not restrict breathing at all, and in most localities it is considered acceptable in place of a mouth/nose covering mask. They start around $2/each


I used 2 of those, Mookie. My problem with them are that I SOUND different to myself (reflection of sound waves) and I find that distracting. I used one at the Food Bank I do volunteer work at; that was OK (my job did not require much beyond YES and I got it). I tried it at school and found the different sound of my own voice a strange distraction as I taught.

BTW: we normally (i.e., without masks or shields) hear ourselves via the bones in our head and the through or with the sinus cavities, too, as well as via the ear, so we DO sound different to ourselves vs. what others hear from us. The first time I heard my recorded voice, I THOUGHT it was a MISTAKE. I had to convince myself, via the words used and exact quotes, that that was INDEED ME....! LoL.... :D :oops: :) =D>
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:33 am

jusplay4fun wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
Duk said:

I'm surprised to hear you say that masks are your biggest complaint


I teach and do lots of public speaking (Reading aloud from Scripture, for example) so that diction and clear delivery of information by my voice is very important. The masks make that difficult for me. And my glasses fog up, since hay fever and allergies cause me to avoid wearing my contact lenses. And as I age, hearing clearly is made even more difficult when the speaker wears a mask.

My son wears a mask to do yard work (PRE-COVID), since he has bad allergies to pollen and/or other outside irritants. I know there are some good things about wearing a mask, but....

And I often feel that my oxygen intake is hindered, too. And it is constant, going in and out of buildings. I have often gone back to my car to get my mask, after I start walking toward a store or other place. Masks are an irritant and inconvenience, not a major problem.


Maybe you should try one of those face shields (at least for the times when you are doing public speaking)? It does not restrict breathing at all, and in most localities it is considered acceptable in place of a mouth/nose covering mask. They start around $2/each


I used 2 of those, Mookie. My problem with them are that I SOUND different to myself (reflection of sound waves) and I find that distracting. I used one at the Food Bank I do volunteer work at; that was OK (my job did not require much beyond YES and I got it). I tried it at school and found the different sound of my own voice a strange distraction as I taught.

BTW: we normally (i.e., without masks or shields) hear ourselves via the bones in our head and the through or with the sinus cavities, too, as well as via the ear, so we DO sound different to ourselves vs. what others hear from us. The first time I heard my recorded voice, I THOUGHT it was a MISTAKE. I had to convince myself, via the words used and exact quotes, that that was INDEED ME....! LoL.... :D :oops: :) =D>


Yeah man, I hate the sound of my voice when i hear a recording like a VM i left on someone else line. It sounds so strange
saxitoxin wrote:deaths among the unvaccinated are higher.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby ConfederateSS on Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:59 am

-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jonesthecurl on Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:05 am

mookiemcgee wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
Duk said:

I'm surprised to hear you say that masks are your biggest complaint


I teach and do lots of public speaking (Reading aloud from Scripture, for example) so that diction and clear delivery of information by my voice is very important. The masks make that difficult for me. And my glasses fog up, since hay fever and allergies cause me to avoid wearing my contact lenses. And as I age, hearing clearly is made even more difficult when the speaker wears a mask.

My son wears a mask to do yard work (PRE-COVID), since he has bad allergies to pollen and/or other outside irritants. I know there are some good things about wearing a mask, but....

And I often feel that my oxygen intake is hindered, too. And it is constant, going in and out of buildings. I have often gone back to my car to get my mask, after I start walking toward a store or other place. Masks are an irritant and inconvenience, not a major problem.


Maybe you should try one of those face shields (at least for the times when you are doing public speaking)? It does not restrict breathing at all, and in most localities it is considered acceptable in place of a mouth/nose covering mask. They start around $2/each


I used 2 of those, Mookie. My problem with them are that I SOUND different to myself (reflection of sound waves) and I find that distracting. I used one at the Food Bank I do volunteer work at; that was OK (my job did not require much beyond YES and I got it). I tried it at school and found the different sound of my own voice a strange distraction as I taught.

BTW: we normally (i.e., without masks or shields) hear ourselves via the bones in our head and the through or with the sinus cavities, too, as well as via the ear, so we DO sound different to ourselves vs. what others hear from us. The first time I heard my recorded voice, I THOUGHT it was a MISTAKE. I had to convince myself, via the words used and exact quotes, that that was INDEED ME....! LoL.... :D :oops: :) =D>


Yeah man, I hate the sound of my voice when i hear a recording like a VM i left on someone else line. It sounds so strange


I used to be in training - teaching. lecturing about various things, eventually computer programmers. The first time I was recorded, I was mostly proud. I looked like I wanted to, I delivered just like I thought, made the gestures I intended, etc etc... but I could NOT believe my bloody accent.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:53 am

ConfederateSS wrote:-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...


Are you saying we NEED war (wars) to control the human population? to keep the human population below some "ideal" number? Or below some sustainable level? (See Malthus and his predictions about starvation and the start of the Dismal Science).
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:58 am

By Question #5 I mean to PRE-COVID (2019), not some 19th century situation or scenario, ConfSS.

by ConfederateSS on Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:59 am

-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;)



mookiemcgee wrote:Feels like you are asking too many question at once... what does 'when can we stop wearing masks' is kinda bloated and loaded as a question. do you mean legally? Morally/ethically? Do you mean everyone, or young, or old or???

If there is a responsible overarching answer to all of these its " When the pandemic is over" as in... cases globally only going down... everywhere. Because as safe as you might be feeling now, rest assured India is shitting themselves today. It's only a matter of time until an outbreak circles backs in the USA somewhere, to the point where they start running out of beds again at hospitals. We have the means to end that with the vaccine, but it requires that people actually take it... only time will tell if that threshold is actually being met.

jusplay4fun wrote:Anyone want to make predictions?

So I want to know:

1) When can we stop wearing Masks? (this is one of my biggest COMPLAINTS about this situation)

2) When does social distancing end?

3) We do we open up so there are NO RESTRICTIONS on business AT ALL?

4) When can we return to social gatherings with NO Restrictions?

5) OVERALL, when do we return to NORMAL?

For all these, when do Governors and other political leaders say these things end? And when do health leaders say the same? It is likely when political and health leaders agree that this will allow ALL THIS to end without real controversy.

IF not soon, I may have to find a signature where all my Guys and Gals are wearing Masks..... :D
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:52 pm

ConfederateSS wrote:-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...



I can't even imagine what your voice would sound like... i kinda wonder if it would just be super boring and monotone, and you compensate with extremely colorful font choices
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby ConfederateSS on Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:26 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...


Are you saying we NEED war (wars) to control the human population? to keep the human population below some "ideal" number? Or below some sustainable level? (See Malthus and his predictions about starvation and the start of the Dismal Science).

-----------I don't know....But, the population is shortly approaching 10 billion...No land,water,which has always been fought over....With weapons such as Nuclear and Biological (covid...thanks China :roll: )...A 3rd world war will bring extinction of humanity....I don't think humanity can fight a conventional war...Like Ww1 and Ww2...But the Earth's resources are already getting low....Less people , means less resources being used.....I know it sounds Heartless...But isn't the overall will to Survive...not heartless,just the will to survive... ... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby riskllama on Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:39 pm

ConfederateSS wrote:....I don't think...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)


confedss wins this thread.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:18 pm

ConfederateSS wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...


Are you saying we NEED war (wars) to control the human population? to keep the human population below some "ideal" number? Or below some sustainable level? (See Malthus and his predictions about starvation and the start of the Dismal Science).

-----------I don't know....But, the population is shortly approaching 10 billion...No land,water,which has always been fought over....With weapons such as Nuclear and Biological (covid...thanks China :roll: )...A 3rd world war will bring extinction of humanity....I don't think humanity can fight a conventional war...Like Ww1 and Ww2...But the Earth's resources are already getting low....Less people , means less resources being used.....I know it sounds Heartless...But isn't the overall will to Survive...not heartless,just the will to survive... ... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)


I think this is a big unanswered philosophical question... I'm not advocating war/disease as a solution to embrace, but humanity has NOT proven it's willing to voluntarily reduce the overall population without some repressive over-arching gov't mandate like the 1 child policy. China's policy makes alot of people in the west sick... but it worked to reduce birthrates and control their crazy population growth numbers from the 90's (had they not taken any action we could have been looking at 15 billion people today on earth!).... I don't believe India is willing or capable of having gov't enforce a similar solution and it's entirely unclear if anything besides war/disease/bad water/famine could slow their population growth. Maybe it's inevitable that bad things happen when people don't address core issues in their society... it's not good or bad it's just inevitable. No population wants their gov't to tell them if/when/how they can have kids, but we are getting to a point where 'growth' just can't be supported and the byproduct will bad things (war/famine/disease)
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:55 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...


Are you saying we NEED war (wars) to control the human population? to keep the human population below some "ideal" number? Or below some sustainable level? (See Malthus and his predictions about starvation and the start of the Dismal Science).

-----------I don't know....But, the population is shortly approaching 10 billion...No land,water,which has always been fought over....With weapons such as Nuclear and Biological (covid...thanks China :roll: )...A 3rd world war will bring extinction of humanity....I don't think humanity can fight a conventional war...Like Ww1 and Ww2...But the Earth's resources are already getting low....Less people , means less resources being used.....I know it sounds Heartless...But isn't the overall will to Survive...not heartless,just the will to survive... ... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)


I think this is a big unanswered philosophical question... I'm not advocating war/disease as a solution to embrace, but humanity has NOT proven it's willing to voluntarily reduce the overall population without some repressive over-arching gov't mandate like the 1 child policy. China's policy makes alot of people in the west sick... but it worked to reduce birthrates and control their crazy population growth numbers from the 90's (had they not taken any action we could have been looking at 15 billion people today on earth!).... I don't believe India is willing or capable of having gov't enforce a similar solution and it's entirely unclear if anything besides war/disease/bad water/famine could slow their population growth. Maybe it's inevitable that bad things happen when people don't address core issues in their society... it's not good or bad it's just inevitable. No population wants their gov't to tell them if/when/how they can have kids, but we are getting to a point where 'growth' just can't be supported and the byproduct will bad things (war/famine/disease)

The whole idea is based on a misapprehension. Wars have little effect on population. The limiting factor in population is the number of eggs, not the number of sperm. We send young men off to war. We rarely send young women. Men are disposable. A woman is fertile for an average of slightly more than 30 years, during which an average of one egg is brought to readiness each month. A man is fertile for most of his life, during which he produces several million sperm every day.

The most devastating (percentage-wise) war in modern history was the War of the Triple Alliance. (CC note -- it is one of the few wars for which we have a CC map.) The actual casualty numbers of the war are highly disputed. It has been said that 90% of the male population died, although that number is almost certainly too high. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War_casualties Even the most conservative estimates, however, put the casualty rate at a minimum of 60% of the male population. Within a generation the population was back to normal. It may be painful to contemplate, but males are ultimately very disposable. Even the most catastrophic wars only produce very short-term blips in the population.

Ditto for natural catastrophes. Floods, famines, plagues. They all lower the population only for a little while, after which it rebounds higher than before.

The only way to meaningfully lower the population in the long run is through a reduction in the reproduction rate.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby ConfederateSS on Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:24 pm

----------I am not continuing the quote...So, ....False DUK...WAR does effect the population of Earth....Without World WAR 2....Where 71 million people died....Worldwide.......Without World War 2 's death toll.....All those people would have had kids(I know mostly all)....And so on and so on.....What would today's population be,without World War 2...20 billion,30???.....So major world wide wars ,do effect the global population......China set the Covid pandemic upon us all...As in the next 15 years...They hope,and most likely...Become the Ruling Power on the Planet....Their influence has been in The USA for years,in our major universities..., companies....They have spread the Economic power through many 3rd world countries....As everyone turns a blind eye...World War 3...will be here shortly....We have seen this PLAY acted out in WW2... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ....Lucky we won't have to watch this one ,for more than a few Nuclear Winter days...then the silence of the exit of MANKIND...from Planet Earth...
----------Another example of how wars effect the population....The French Population...No one under 6 ft was allowed in Napoleon's Army....I know 6ft...Ironic...for Napoleon.....During the Napoleonic Wars... Napoleon killed off all the Tall Frenchman...That is why most Frenchmen are short like Napoleon...Wars effect alot of things...France suffered such World War 1 loses...Their population couldn't compete with Germany's...So instead of pouring money into Manpower,weapons...The French decided the best way to prevent an attack by Germany in the future...Was The construction of The Maginot Line...We all know how that turned out....Once again, Population played a key roll in how things play out...
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby mookiemcgee on Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:39 am

Dukasaur wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:
jusplay4fun wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:-------As to your 5th question....Has Humanity ever been normal since the 19th Century/Industrial revolution...? ;) .....Take the advancement in weapons....Which has put an end to Major wars,for the most part.....The U.N... :roll: ....Peace has brought and end to the evolution of Mankind not helped it....Peace has led to mass population of the Planet...which wars kept low.....There was a Twilight Zone episode...That was the opposite of The Day The Earth Stood Still....Where in the episode...An Alien comes to Earth and warns of how we run out Planet...So all the countries get together,like The Day The Earth Stood Still....The leaders took the Alien's meaning of our war like nature,and made Every country on Earth peaceful......When the Alien returned to see Earth's progress....He said,you miss understood...You,Planet Earth ...are not Warlike enough,and must be Destroyed... :) ...Well we are there...in 2021 A.D.... :lol: ...Nice Job Liberal Bleeding Heart Suckers :lol: :lol: :lol: ...But hey, Don't worry,everyone gets a hug and a participation trophy... ;) ...... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...


Are you saying we NEED war (wars) to control the human population? to keep the human population below some "ideal" number? Or below some sustainable level? (See Malthus and his predictions about starvation and the start of the Dismal Science).

-----------I don't know....But, the population is shortly approaching 10 billion...No land,water,which has always been fought over....With weapons such as Nuclear and Biological (covid...thanks China :roll: )...A 3rd world war will bring extinction of humanity....I don't think humanity can fight a conventional war...Like Ww1 and Ww2...But the Earth's resources are already getting low....Less people , means less resources being used.....I know it sounds Heartless...But isn't the overall will to Survive...not heartless,just the will to survive... ... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:)


I think this is a big unanswered philosophical question... I'm not advocating war/disease as a solution to embrace, but humanity has NOT proven it's willing to voluntarily reduce the overall population without some repressive over-arching gov't mandate like the 1 child policy. China's policy makes alot of people in the west sick... but it worked to reduce birthrates and control their crazy population growth numbers from the 90's (had they not taken any action we could have been looking at 15 billion people today on earth!).... I don't believe India is willing or capable of having gov't enforce a similar solution and it's entirely unclear if anything besides war/disease/bad water/famine could slow their population growth. Maybe it's inevitable that bad things happen when people don't address core issues in their society... it's not good or bad it's just inevitable. No population wants their gov't to tell them if/when/how they can have kids, but we are getting to a point where 'growth' just can't be supported and the byproduct will bad things (war/famine/disease)

The whole idea is based on a misapprehension. Wars have little effect on population. The limiting factor in population is the number of eggs, not the number of sperm. We send young men off to war. We rarely send young women. Men are disposable. A woman is fertile for an average of slightly more than 30 years, during which an average of one egg is brought to readiness each month. A man is fertile for most of his life, during which he produces several million sperm every day.

The most devastating (percentage-wise) war in modern history was the War of the Triple Alliance. (CC note -- it is one of the few wars for which we have a CC map.) The actual casualty numbers of the war are highly disputed. It has been said that 90% of the male population died, although that number is almost certainly too high. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War_casualties Even the most conservative estimates, however, put the casualty rate at a minimum of 60% of the male population. Within a generation the population was back to normal. It may be painful to contemplate, but males are ultimately very disposable. Even the most catastrophic wars only produce very short-term blips in the population.

Ditto for natural catastrophes. Floods, famines, plagues. They all lower the population only for a little while, after which it rebounds higher than before.

The only way to meaningfully lower the population in the long run is through a reduction in the reproduction rate.


and if you don't reduce reproduction rates or address the problem in some other way eventually you end up with more floods, famines, plagues, wars. Inevitable. Which as you said would lower the population 'for a while', in horrible, disruptive, bad for society kinds of ways.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:35 pm

Population in Japan and Western Europe is in decline due to falling birthrates. Now, some of that in Europe may be offset by immigration from Africa, the Middle East, and more; I do not know the exact stats. They are available for anyone wishing to do a bit of "research" and "looking."

The last time I looked, the birthrate in the USA was 1.9% for females of child-bearing age. A rate of 2.1% is needed to have a stable population; some children die before adulthood, so that small # needs the 0.1% offset.

The US Population continues to grow, however, due to immigration, legal and NOT legal.....to be kindler and gentler. Hispanic population as a percentage of the overall population grows as they have more children than whites or blacks. They passed blacks (or African-Americans) to be the largest minority (behind whites) a few years ago.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby Dukasaur on Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:37 pm

ConfederateSS wrote:----------[size=150]I am not continuing the quote...So, ....False DUK...WAR does effect the population of Earth....Without World WAR 2....Where 71 million people died....Worldwide.......Without World War 2 's death toll.....All those people would have had kids(I know mostly all)

Here's a graph of the British birth rate over time from 1800 to 1940. Notice how the birth rate crashed during World War I? Notice how after the war, there was a spike in births that brought the overall rate much higher than it had been before the war? Yes, people had fewer babies during the war, and of course the dead ones didn't have any at all after the war, but the live ones picked up their reproductive pace and made up for it. Just like any other war, within one generation the loss had been completely compensated for.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:18 pm

To keep this relatively simple, (i.e., without me doing LOTS of research to document and validate my recollection):

Malthus, an British economist, predicted widespread famine and disease would keep populations low. That did not occur. Why?

1) better medicine and health care; fewer deaths, especially of children.

2) better food production, especially by use of machinery and fertilizers, especially chemical fertilizers.

As someone with a bit knowledgeable of Chemistry, let me assert that the ability to take nitrogen out of the atmosphere and convert to ammonia and other forms of nitrogen accessible to most green plants is the key advancement. I think the Haber process converts H2 and N2 into NH3 as the starting point for this chemical process. I know that this reaction is studied extensively as a chemical reaction, especially as a Reaction Rate and Equilibrium case study. (The conditions to shift the Equilibrium to the ammonia, NH3, side is something studied in intro Chem courses; see Le Chatelier's Principle; also, read about the Haber chemical reaction if you want the in-depth Chemistry.)
Also see:
https://www.ias.ac.in/public/Volumes/reso/016/12/1159-1167.pdf

As far as medical care, one of the most important things that has kept babies alive is to provide CLEAN drinking water. This began in the USA in New Jersey around 1905-1910; the exact year escapes me. A similar effort was going on in Britain about the same time. Use of chlorine bleach (in the form of hypochlorite) to treat drinking water (and kill harmful bacteria) cut the death rate of babies by some 90% within one year of the start of use of this water treatment, again based on my memory of reading on this topic. I may have a few facts and # off, but the narrative is essentially valid.

Later there has been the GREEN Revolution of the 1970s with better seeds. Rice I think was key crop improved at that time. Now we have GMO seeds (that is a bit controversial, I know).

Of course, better sanitation and simple things like doctors washing their hands made a huge difference in cutting death rates. Use of anti-biotics came along later.

I know that the population of the world over is growing. The Population increase in the developed world has essentially stopped (or slowed significantly). China had its ONE CHILD only policy now for some time (since the 1960s or so; not sure??) and that is having a huge impact there. And Russia had a decrease in life expectancy awhile back; I have not looked at those stats in a while. Africa and India, to me, are the key areas to look at. China is beginning relax its One Child policy, and with so many Chinese, that can have a HUGE impact.

So, there are many factors to consider. Yes, the earth PERHAPS is getting near its limit to sustain human population. The next huge limiting factor may soon be CLEAN water to drink and irrigate crops. The shrinking glaciers in the Himalayas may drastically cut fresh clean water to India and Pakistan. The Sahara Desert is spreading south and will limit crops and livestock in Central Africa. Those are most of the trends that I know about, based on what I read from several and varied sources. A this point, I will not raise the specter of the possible impacts of Global Warming on many of these interconnected issues, beyond this cursory statement.

I did research this portion, now that I essentially finished this essay:

In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus famously predicted that short-term gains in living standards would inevitably be undermined as human population growth outstripped food production, and thereby drive living standards back toward subsistence. We were, he argued, condemned by the tendency of population to grow geometrically while food production would increase only arithmetically.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-malthus-predicted-1798-food-shortages/#:~:text=In%201798%20Thomas%20Robert%20Malthus,living%20standards%20back%20toward%20subsistence.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:23 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:----------[size=150]I am not continuing the quote...So, ....False DUK...WAR does effect the population of Earth....Without World WAR 2....Where 71 million people died....Worldwide.......Without World War 2 's death toll.....All those people would have had kids(I know mostly all)

Here's a graph of the British birth rate over time from 1800 to 1940. Notice how the birth rate crashed during World War I? Notice how after the war, there was a spike in births that brought the overall rate much higher than it had been before the war? Yes, people had fewer babies during the war, and of course the dead ones didn't have any at all after the war, but the live ones picked up their reproductive pace and made up for it. Just like any other war, within one generation the loss had been completely compensated for.
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Note that the OVERALL British trend (up to about 1940, as per Duk' graph) is slightly downward, as I essentially said in my previous post for Europe's population.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby Dukasaur on Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:19 am

Yes, the overall trend was downwards. The country was gaining affluence, and with affluence comes a falling birthrate.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby ConfederateSS on Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:56 am

Dukasaur wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:----------[size=150]I am not continuing the quote...So, ....False DUK...WAR does effect the population of Earth....Without World WAR 2....Where 71 million people died....Worldwide.......Without World War 2 's death toll.....All those people would have had kids(I know mostly all)

Here's a graph of the British birth rate over time from 1800 to 1940. Notice how the birth rate crashed during World War I? Notice how after the war, there was a spike in births that brought the overall rate much higher than it had been before the war? Yes, people had fewer babies during the war, and of course the dead ones didn't have any at all after the war, but the live ones picked up their reproductive pace and made up for it. Just like any other war, within one generation the loss had been completely compensated for.
Image

---------I know...Like I said, That is what was happening in France....They saw that they would not be able to keep up with man power with Germany in the coming years after 1919....
----------In the 21st cen.A.D...it is what is happening Globally....Not one country here or There......Yes in most 1st world countries....The birthrates are low.....But the Majority of the Planet is 2 nd and 3 rd World countries...where the birth rates...are exploding...Then they move to 1 st world countries..... Humanity might not make it to the 22nd Cen.A.D....No water,land...for 20 billion and beyond.... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...But hey,Go!Green!...at least the cockroaches and sharks will be around to enjoy a cleaner Earth...Like they have been doing,even back when they were hanging out with the Dinosaurs....:)
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:29 pm

Dukasaur wrote:Yes, the overall trend was downwards. The country was gaining affluence, and with affluence comes a falling birthrate.


I forgot to mention a HUGE factor: Birth Control, i.e., The PILL.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:44 pm

ConfederateSS wrote:
Dukasaur wrote:
ConfederateSS wrote:----------[size=150]I am not continuing the quote...So, ....False DUK...WAR does effect the population of Earth....Without World WAR 2....Where 71 million people died....Worldwide.......Without World War 2 's death toll.....All those people would have had kids(I know mostly all)

Here's a graph of the British birth rate over time from 1800 to 1940. Notice how the birth rate crashed during World War I? Notice how after the war, there was a spike in births that brought the overall rate much higher than it had been before the war? Yes, people had fewer babies during the war, and of course the dead ones didn't have any at all after the war, but the live ones picked up their reproductive pace and made up for it. Just like any other war, within one generation the loss had been completely compensated for.
Image

---------I know...Like I said, That is what was happening in France....They saw that they would not be able to keep up with man power with Germany in the coming years after 1919....
----------In the 21st cen.A.D...it is what is happening Globally....Not one country here or There......Yes in most 1st world countries....The birthrates are low.....But the Majority of the Planet is 2 nd and 3 rd World countries...where the birth rates...are exploding...Then they move to 1 st world countries..... Humanity might not make it to the 22nd Cen.A.D....No water,land...for 20 billion and beyond.... O:) ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... O:) ...But hey,Go!Green!...at least the cockroaches and sharks will be around to enjoy a cleaner Earth...Like they have been doing,even back when they were hanging out with the Dinosaurs....:)


That is a VERY PESSIMISTIC view, ConfSS. I disagree. Certainly Malthus and his contemporaries had no idea that The PILL, the Haber Process, machinery, and better seeds (and much higher yields of crops) would radically change things, causing his projection of arithmetic growth of agricultural production to be fundamentally wrong. Birth Control Pills obviously change the population growth rates and thus render his projection of population growth to be fundamentally flawed.

Malthus' projection is why economics is often called (then) the DISMAL Science.

ConfSS, you and I will not be around to see if your predictions come true or not. We may be approaching the upper limit of the total number of humans that this planet can support, but the Goalposts are NOT FIXED. Sciences (as well as technology and medicine) change the ability of human to cope with and handle the challenges of the future.
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby jusplay4fun on Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:00 pm

ConfederateSS said, on Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:24 pm

----------I am not continuing the quote...So, ....False DUK...WAR does effect the population of Earth....Without World WAR 2....Where 71 million people died....Worldwide.......Without World War 2 's death toll.....All those people would have had kids(I know mostly all)....And so on and so on.....What would today's population be,without World War 2...20 billion,30???.....So major world wide wars ,do effect the global population


I think that you, ConfSs, are confusing short-term and long-term effects.

And was Napoleon really short?

https://www.history.com/news/napoleon-complex-short

And I question your tale about height requirements, too. This was only for a select few troops, NOT all troops.

The Garde impériale was an elite unit that was made up of the best soldiers from the army. They were charged with Napoleon’s personal protection, both on the battlefield and on the road. To be in the Garde impériale, a soldier had to be at least 5’8″ (1.73m) tall and had to have served in another army corps for at least ten years. The ability to read and write was also required, which was not the case for other soldiers in the Napoleonic army.

https://www.napoleon.org/en/young-historians/napodoc/napoleons-grande-armee-1/
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Re: One year ago, March 2020

Postby mookiemcgee on Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:32 pm

Chart for total global population over time (as opposed to event specific fertility rate chart posted earlier)

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

since 1950, steady population growth. You can talk about fertility rates dropping in rich countries all you want, but let's be real - global population continues to rise today and is not/has not been 'leveling off'. Population has been rising by 1 billion people every 12-13 years for the last 70 years. The world hit it's 'carrying capacity' for humans a long time ago, and technology is the only thing that has prevented a great reckoning, and that has come at a cost (people living closer together in smaller housing, relying on massive food distribution/meatpacking/farming systems that promote disease spread in plant/animals/humans, climate change, toxic spills/scorched earth areas are a few examples). If rich nations take their foot off the gas on future investment in technology there is absolutely a chance we will no longer be able to keep pace with the new problems created by our solutions to old problems. The argument that 'birthrates go lower when countries get richer' basically just ignores all if this and promises that things will fix themselves in the rich places.
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