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Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:42 pm
by lilwdlnddude
sully800 wrote:*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*
and ha came! wow this is all very interesting and everyone should concider this in there attacks. well when they play online atleast... since i
seem to lose dice rolls on CC alot, ive noticed that in the real board game i am way more cautious than i used to be. i dont know if thats a good thing or not...
Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:43 pm
by lilwdlnddude
sully800 wrote:*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*
and ha came! wow this is all very interesting and everyone should concider this in there attacks. well when they play online atleast... since i
seem to lose dice rolls on CC alot, ive noticed that in the real board game i am way more cautious than i used to be. i dont know if thats a good thing or not...
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 12:07 am
by kclborat
i'm really glad you posted that 3 times! now i get it!!
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 12:10 am
by sully800
maniacmath17 wrote:sully800 wrote:Well first of all, I'm sorry to hear about the bad beat. It must be a terrible sight when something like that happens. I have seen a bit worse than that (15v1 losing) but its still pretty bad.
As for the comment, "how is that possible?"....well, the rule of large numbers my friend!
Let's assume that you lost every attack, so your defender still had 2 men left at the end. The probability of that happening would be 4.6*10^-4%. Not very good of course, though the actual odds of losing the attack outright are a little higher because you could also defeat one of his men but then lose to the rest.
Anyway, Andy has posted that CC goes through 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day, though that number was from november. Of course we must go through even more than that now because the site is ever growing, but how much more I can't say....so I'll use 125,000.
The math from there is simple- 4.6*10^-4*125000 = 57
That means that if every attack made on the site was 3v2 dice, this would occur 57 times a day. Of course people have many different types of attacks as well, and they won't often be in the 20v2 situation you described. But if they were, despite the small odds of it happening, it would happen multiple times a day simply because so many dice are thrown around this site.
It's just a shame that it had to be you on that occasion!
Edit- Sorry, I misread your post based on the title. You lost 20 men and defeated two, not lost 20 men and defeated 0 because you were facing 2. Well, that just makes the chances of it happening a bit higher!
*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*
Well the chances of going from a 20 v 2 down to a 2 v 2 is .2926 ^ 9 which is 1.6 ^ -5 or about 1 in every 62500. And with all the games on this site it wouldn't take long to go through 62500 of the 20 v 2 attacks. And since yours was losing 20 and killing 2, its even more likely to happen.
This is nothing compared to the guy that lost like a 24 v 1. The chances of that are so ridiculous that it should never happen again in our lifetimes.
lol, I made one dumb mistake. 4.6*10^-4% means you need to multiply by 4.6*10^-6. So it would actually only happen .575 times a day if every attack was like that one. But since CC has been around for over a year, we should see that exact occurrence happen a few times.
And yeah, the 24v1 loss is definitely the worst I've heard of.
That's what, a 3.627*10^-11 chance?
That means there was only a 0.00165 chance of it happening in the last year. A 10th of 1% for that to occur in 365 days of 125,000 rolls a day! Without increasing the dice rolls, this site would have to be around for 604 years for that to be
expected. I wonder if he wasn't lying about it?
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 12:47 am
by maniacmath17
The guy seemed pretty serious about it. That was the one result that made me really question the legitimacy of the dice. Oh well, its all good as long as it doesn't happen to me
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 2:23 am
by MarshmallowFluff
great. I just started and I thought it was bad when I lost 6 to 1...
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 4:21 am
by Dariune
Well the chances of going from a 20 v 2 down to a 2 v 2 is .2926 ^ 9 which is 1.6 ^ -5 or about 1 in every 62500. And with all the games on this site it wouldn't take long to go through 62500 of the 20 v 2 attacks. And since yours was losing 20 and killing 2, its even more likely to happen.
This is nothing compared to the guy that lost like a 24 v 1. The chances of that are so ridiculous that it should never happen again in our lifetimes.
Code: Select all
I am serious about it. Thats what happened regardless of anybodies calculations.
The last two days i am having equally bad luck.
Yesterday i lost 8 against 1 and in the same turn 20 (roughly, cant remember) against 8
today i played out five turns and attacked in all those turns and lost almost triple what i killed.
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 4:21 am
by Dariune
Well that message didnt turn out as i wanted it too, but it looks so silly im just going to keep it that way
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 8:43 am
by silvanthalas
I rolled a 6, 2, and something else, defender rolled 6.
Next roll was triple 5's, defender rolled 5.
Then double 3's, defender rolled 3.
Then a 2, defender rolled a 2.
Can somebody figures the odds of this happening? I bet it's pretty good; I'm already going to lose this game because of this 4 rolls, so I might as well find out how "unlucky" I truly was. I'd call it real unluck, save these 'random' dice are anything but.
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2007 9:02 am
by lilwdlnddude
kclborat wrote:i'm really glad you posted that 3 times! now i get it!!
haha, oh man, sorry guys. my computer was actin all messed up last night and i didnt even think i posted once. wont happen again...
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 12:52 pm
by Rallion
The dice are definitely random. The problem is that the human brain, for some reason, has a huge amount of trouble understanding what 'random' means. All that 'random' means is that all outcomes have an equal probability.
Anyway...it's the cases like this that make me prefer the dice used in the computer game Risk II. Depending on the number of armies you have, you actually get to roll different dice with different numbers. It means it's still never impossible to lose, but it does give overwhelmingly large forces an advantage. I'm not saying that system should be used on CC or anything, but they do avoid some frustration.
Though I DO wish that the simultaneous turn system in that same game was a better fit for CC. Sadly, I don't think it would work very well here.
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 2:06 pm
by max is gr8
I want t kill all people who complain about dice I killed 40 men with 3 the tother day but thats because of my amazing karma
But I went on to lose the game
The point still stands the dice are fine
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 2:18 pm
by coolbean04
I lost 7v7 without killing anyone, i lost 5v5 without killing anyone, and i had 11v5 and i lost everyone. So i didn't kill 1 person in 3 rolls in a row.
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 9:36 pm
by Suzianne
I think every single person on this site must have horror stories like this, and I also believe that for most people, there are a LOT more horror stories than stories of fantastic good luck. I myself have witnessed the defender roll SIX double 6's in a row. Now, I'm sorry, but that is just not random. You try it. I bet you die of old age first.
Just going by probability, 3 dice will always have a statistical advantage over 2 dice. Whether this is offset by the defender winning ties, I don't know, but you would think the dice would lean towards the attacker. On this site, they clearly don't.
I have WAY better luck over the short term, i.e. small numbers attacking small numbers (less than 6 vs. less than 6). However, in my short time on the site so far, I'll go on record as saying that 90% of the time, I lose when attacking with over 10 vs. over 10. Again, this is not random.
I just don't think I need to be giving myself this daily dose of frustration. This site is not Conquer Club, it's Frustration Club.
Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:17 pm
by Nous-irons
Grass is always greener on the other side; it's psychological, we overlook our small gains and get horrified by the bad luck.
And I wouldn't attack 10 v 10 unless I were really desperate. I'd at least attack with 13, ideally 15.
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 8:01 am
by Dariune
Because of my recent luck i probs wouldnt even attack with 15. Thats an almost garanteed loss as far as my experience goes
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 8:19 am
by gavin_sidhu
i have my ups and downs, one game I had awesome dice, attacked with the same number that they were defending with and won alot of the time. Im in a game currently where my luck is terrible, twice i have been unable to break anothers continent which had only 1 man as a defence and it has been very very fustrating.
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:06 pm
by gerry22
i just did this exact thing 10 straight rolls, 20 armies. I'm not a happy camper.
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:25 pm
by everywhere116
Suzianne wrote:Just going by probability, 3 dice will always have a statistical advantage over 2 dice. Whether this is offset by the defender winning ties, I don't know, but you would think the dice would lean towards the attacker. On this site, they clearly don't.
Statisticly, the attacker will have a slight advantage. A
VERY slight advantage, but an advantage none the less.
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:01 pm
by Jamie
max is gr8 wrote: I killed 40 men with 3 the tother day but thats because of my amazing karma
But I went on to lose the game
The point still stands the dice are fine
You're full of it
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:43 am
by IronE.GLE
Sometimes you just have to back off and try attacking somewhere else, even if it means not getting a card that round. Better to have half of your units left and no card than to have none of your units left and no card.
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:46 am
by xtratabasco
Dariune wrote:Well the chances of going from a 20 v 2 down to a 2 v 2 is .2926 ^ 9 which is 1.6 ^ -5 or about 1 in every 62500. And with all the games on this site it wouldn't take long to go through 62500 of the 20 v 2 attacks. And since yours was losing 20 and killing 2, its even more likely to happen.
This is nothing compared to the guy that lost like a 24 v 1. The chances of that are so ridiculous that it should never happen again in our lifetimes.
Code: Select all
I am serious about it. Thats what happened regardless of anybodies calculations.
The last two days i am having equally bad luck.
Yesterday i lost 8 against 1 and in the same turn 20 (roughly, cant remember) against 8
today i played out five turns and attacked in all those turns and lost almost triple what i killed.
Yes, and I have lost 22 to 2 twice on this site.
But let me make this clear, it wasnt 22 vs. 2. it was a total group of 22 armies in different areas that was attacking to get just 1 card. I lost 22 men in total and only won 2 and I didnt get a card because I couldnt take a country. and this situation has happened twice.
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 7:47 am
by Dariune
I think im going to have to start equipping my armies with weapons rather than just harsh language and natural body odour. That might give them a better chance
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 8:12 am
by SirSebstar
ney, your body odour works fine like always..
rolfmao
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 8:15 am
by gerry22
defender dice throws too many 5's and 6's, if the dice rolls werein the game log we could verify or repudiate these claims.