Conquer Club

redi5e wrote:22 vs 22 and i ended up with 12 left. i won the game after those rolls

The probability of this happening was 7.15838%

SkyCaptain wrote:Lol, i was watching my brother play, and he killed a 21 with a 26 and still had 15 left. This was in indochina against someone who was about to win. Actually, he had me click because I'm luckier. Then he killed like 8 more territories and only lost like 1 or 2.

The probability of this happening was 0.22467%.

biteme143 wrote:I had 26 against 38 and I was left with 10 hell yea and I won the game in the end! Auto-attack is now my friend at first I didn't trust it!

The probability of this happening was 2.40185%.

Psilocbin wrote:Some guy had 43v30 attacking me, soon it was 1v6. Another time I had 13 guys and didn't lose one for about 10 rolls.

The probability of surviving a 43v30 attack and still having at least 6 defenders is 1.11709%

The probability of attacking 43v30 and losing all but one of your attackers is 0.30790%.

Lev306 wrote:20 v 4 attacking me. I won out in the end with 1 v 3 =O.

The probability of surviving a 20v4 attack with 3 armies left is 0.00874%.

The probability of attacking 20v4 and losing all but one army is 0.01257%

plysprtz wrote:i had 10 he had 18 i won with 9 left i then attacked his one for siam and then lost it all

The probability of the first attack happening is 0.01353%.

The probability of the second attack happening is 0.3815%.

So you were lucky, the first outcome was expected to be more rare than the second outcome.

LOL... thank you mr. mathmagician

i figured out, but that's just my luck i guess, that when i'm not outnumbering the defender with at least twice as much (starting from 2 defenders) i end up losing the battle like 80% of the time, small battles mostly... what are the odds on that i wonder

Huge battles turn out even in my experience... 50v50 i almost never have more than 10 left (with or without the auto attack button)... same goes for the defender, though i had a very bad xperience once! I attacked a dude with 76 against his 89 and was down to 1 but still faced 63 of his *bummer*... if i'd won i probably would've won the game, now the game's still on

Mysty wrote:LOL... thank you mr. mathmagician

i figured out, but that's just my luck i guess, that when i'm not outnumbering the defender with at least twice as much (starting from 2 defenders) i end up losing the battle like 80% of the time, small battles mostly... what are the odds on that i wonder

Huge battles turn out even in my experience... 50v50 i almost never have more than 10 left (with or without the auto attack button)... same goes for the defender, though i had a very bad xperience once! I attacked a dude with 76 against his 89 and was down to 1 but still faced 63 of his *bummer*... if i'd won i probably would've won the game, now the game's still on

You should download the dice analyzer to see if that is really the case. I think most tend to overestimate their bad dice and forget the times they take out a big country without many losses. I know that I do.

I once went 24 vs. 6 from Siam to get into Australia and take a player out. He had one in each of his Aussie Countries and his 6 in Indonesia.

Well, to make a long story short.... I ended up with 1 army in Siam and he ended up with 3 armies in Indonesia after my attack. Gotta love autoattack in a situation like that. I almost threw the computer I was so angry. Needless to say, I was pretty much done after that.

ow... you're probably right... the bad dice are remembered more than the good dice... so in the long run it might all even out without me knowing (like 400 games from now )

but i'm pretty sure i never had the luck to say that i took out a massive army (say 100vs100) and have half of my army left... but luckily doesn't occur much when i'm the defender either

I won a 3v10 without losing a single troop. To finish off a player.

I attacked a 41 - 41 once and had 39 men left over

i like those odds trestain

Just recently had a 96 vs 41 and had 41 left... so not much luck again (though just slightly in favour of the defender... kicked his butt anywayz so not complaining )

I don't believe in luck.
Only skill and speed.
but praying to the dice gods never hurt anyone.

I've killed 10 when I was attacking and didn't lose once.. That was nice.

I've broken 11 with 8 before, and had 4 guys left over.

I've also lost 27 guys trying to kill a 5, hit auto attack and say myself with 3...

Was playing the RISK board game the other night and the attacker rolled 3 sixes and the defender rolled 2 sixes.

What are the odds of rolling all sixes on 5 dice ?

younghemingway wrote:Was playing the RISK board game the other night and the attacker rolled 3 sixes and the defender rolled 2 sixes.

What are the odds of rolling all sixes on 5 dice ?

Math.pow(1/6,5)*100 = 0.012860% or better than once every 10,000 rolls.

1 in 7776 to be precise.

down to 2 territories turned in a set eliminated 1 player turned in 2 sets and eliminated the other player.
2007-04-29 17:37:21 - ijnmusashi receives 3 armies for 2 territories
2007-04-29 17:37:24 - ijnmusashi cashed in a set of Ko Kong, Cao Bang, and Phongsali worth 15 armies
2007-04-29 17:37:39 - ijnmusashi deployed 18 armies on Hanoi
2007-04-29 17:37:43 - ijnmusashi attacked Lao Cai from Hanoi and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:37:53 - ijnmusashi attacked Dien Bien Phu from Lao Cai and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:37:59 - ijnmusashi attacked Son La from Dien Bien Phu and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:08 - ijnmusashi attacked Hua Phan from Son La and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:16 - ijnmusashi attacked Ha Tinh from Hua Phan and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:26 - ijnmusashi attacked Thanh Hoa from Ha Tinh and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Dong Hoi from Ha Tinh and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - ijnmusashi eliminated redspear from the game
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - redspear loses 22 points
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - ijnmusashi gains 22 points
2007-04-29 17:38:45 - ijnmusashi cashed in a set of Salavan, Da Lat, and Mondulkiri worth 20 armies
2007-04-29 17:38:49 - ijnmusashi cashed in a set of Kompong Thom, Hue, and Vientiane worth 25 armies
2007-04-29 17:39:05 - ijnmusashi deployed 25 armies on Dien Bien Phu
2007-04-29 17:39:16 - ijnmusashi deployed 20 armies on Dong Hoi
2007-04-29 17:39:24 - ijnmusashi attacked Phongsali from Dien Bien Phu and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Sainyabuli from Phongsali and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:41 - ijnmusashi attacked Vientiane from Sainyabuli and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:49 - ijnmusashi attacked Saisombun from Vientiane and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:56 - ijnmusashi attacked Bolikhamxai from Saisombun and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:03 - ijnmusashi attacked Khammuan from Bolikhamxai and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:11 - ijnmusashi attacked Salavan from Khammuan and conquered it from neutral player
2007-04-29 17:40:19 - ijnmusashi attacked Sekong from Salavan and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:28 - ijnmusashi attacked Stung Treng from Sekong and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Battambang from Stung Treng and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:42 - ijnmusashi attacked Ko Kong from Battambang and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:51 - ijnmusashi attacked Phnom Penh from Ko Kong and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:59 - ijnmusashi attacked Kompong Thom from Phnom Penh and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:10 - ijnmusashi attacked Mondulkiri from Kompong Thom and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:16 - ijnmusashi attacked Hue from Dong Hoi and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:24 - ijnmusashi attacked Qui Nhon from Hue and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:30 - ijnmusashi attacked Pleiku from Qui Nhon and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Da Lat from Pleiku and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:40 - ijnmusashi attacked Phan Thiet from Da Lat and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:45 - ijnmusashi attacked Saigon from Phan Thiet and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi attacked Ca Mau from Saigon and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi eliminated Wames from the game
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - Wames loses 21 points
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi gains 21 points
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi won the game