Conquer Club

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:22 am**

TheGeneral's Pro Mafia has already finished.

Good luck!

Have fun!

Play pro!

What are the distinctions, you ask?

Spoiler

1) Any player may converse with any other player at any point in time through a PM as long as I am CC'd on this PM. This will be to your advantage and to your disadvantage. 5% of all PMs will leak. This will be determined by random.org. In the event that your PM has leaked, I will post the PM in the game thread. If the message leaks, the sender of this message will always be posted, but the receiver will only be posted 50% of the time. In addition to this, you can choose to intentionally leak a message. When you CC me on the PM, let me know that you want the message to leak. It is not revealed that this message was intentionally leaked. The sender will be revealed and 50% of the time, the recipient is revealed as well.

2) The setup possibilities will be open. What does this mean? This means I will give you the formula possibilities for this setup. This is a multi setup, meaning, I will give you several possibilities of setups and town will not know will not know which setup is being used. BUT it will be one of these four setups. By process of elimination, only the mafia will know which setup is being used. The setup being chosen will be decided by random.org.

3) When mafia sends me their nightkill, they will send me the order of their visit. Each member may select a kill or elect to kill no one. The majority vote of mafia will be used. This means two out of three mafia must select the same person to kill for the kill to be effective. The third member can select another player or no one. If a minority of mafia selects a kill different from the majority, the watcher will see this if watching the minority mafia's target. When mafia sends the kill to me, they will also send the order of their visits. FOR EXAMPLE if the bomb is the mafia's target and the watcher is targeting the bomb as well, and the mafia order of visits is Mafia A visits bomb, Mafia B visits bomb, Mafia C visits no one. Mafia A will die because they were first to have visited to kill the bomb. The watcher will see that Mafia A visited the bomb.

What is this setup, you ask?

Spoiler

This setup is a variant of TEO or Trust Each Other. Credit for this setup goes to Jammer. Win statistics for this game are 47% mafia and 52% town.

Setup 1: 4 villagers, 1 cop, 1 watcher, 1 bomb, 1 hooker, 1 actress, 1 stalker
Setup 2: 4 villagers, 1 vanilla mafia, 1 doc, 1 watcher, 1 bomb, 1 actress, 1 stalker
Setup 3: 4 villagers, 1 doc, 1 cop, 1 bomb, 1 actress, 1 lawyer, 1 stalker
Setup 4: 4 villagers, 1 doc, 1 cop, 1 watcher, 1 framer, 1 actress, 1 stalker

What are these roles, you ask?

Spoiler

Villager: Wins if all Mafia are dead. Sided with the village.

Cop: Investigates one person every night. Sided with town.

Doc: Protects one person from being killed every night. Sided with town.

Watcher: Selects one person to watch every night. Will know who visited that person that night. Sided with town.

Bomb: Anyone who kills him/her will be blown up. Will not explode if lynched. Sided with town.

Hooker: Kisses one person every night. Doctors will fail to protect. Cop will fail to investigate. Sided with the mafia.

Actress: Picks one person per night. When the Actress dies, he/she appears to be the target's role. Sided with the mafia.

Stalker: Chooses one person at night. Will know that person's role in the morning. Sided with the mafia.

Framer: Frames one person every night. For that night, the target will appear guilty to cops. Sided with the mafia.

Vanilla Mafia: Has no special powers or abilities. Sided with the mafia.

Lawyer: Can choose one mafia every night. That mafia will appear innocent if investigated. Sided with the mafia.

Who is playing, you ask?

Living:
2) Edocsil
7) Ghostly447
9) Soundman

Deceased

4) Rodion - Bomb - Night 1
10) Haggis_McMutton - Doc - Night 1
6) MoB Deadly - VT - Day 1
8) Dazza2008 - VT - Night 2
5) Spiesr - Lawyer - Day 2
1) Zimmah - Doc - Night 3
3) Agentcom - Day 3

Reserves:

1) thehippo8
2) foxmists

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 7:29 am**

I was interested until I read Part 3.

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 10:00 am**

Part 3 is awesome but it doesn't work on CC forum mafia. I've played with it in RT mafia and its fucking awesome. BUT, it can't work here.

The reason being is because players are not always online. The disguiser wants to send a message but players can not visit the mafia forum for days at a time. Not everyone has a chance to play every mafia game every day. And of course weekends messes that up to.

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:23 pm**

MoB Deadly wrote:Part 3 is awesome but it doesn't work on CC forum mafia. I've played with it in RT mafia and its fucking awesome. BUT, it can't work here.

The reason being is because players are not always online. The disguiser wants to send a message but players can not visit the mafia forum for days at a time. Not everyone has a chance to play every mafia game every day. And of course weekends messes that up to.

I think you may be right on this one. I have replaced the disguiser with actress. This role should play more or less the same.

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:31 pm**

Put me in as a replacement for now, I am in way too many mafias at the moment

--------

Do you know that this obviously requires you to be a very active mod?

Is there any sort of limits on PMING? What if someone PMs just a couple words at a time to avoid any info being leaked, but sends like 20 PMs?

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:37 pm**

i think this is a nice setup. i'm in.

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:59 pm**

MoB Deadly wrote:Put me in as a replacement for now, I am in way too many mafias at the moment

--------

Do you know that this obviously requires you to be a very active mod?

Is there any sort of limits on PMING? What if someone PMs just a couple words at a time to avoid any info being leaked, but sends like 20 PMs?

This is one strategy. However it almost guarantees a few words will leak. What will town say when they see this?

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 6:02 pm**

Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 6:03 pm**

MoB Deadly wrote:Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role

Let me know if you want to be moved to an active player, MoB, instead of a reserve. This should be pretty epic.

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 8:50 pm**

/in.

I approve of the rule changes, it looks quite fun. I like the new roles you are bringing in General.

Posted: **Tue Jan 10, 2012 8:52 pm**

edocsil wrote:/in.

I approve of the rule changes, it looks quite fun. I like the new roles you are bringing in General.

Thank you. I really just want to mix some shit up and show that you can do things in epically different ways.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:32 am**

MoB Deadly wrote:Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role

Just an fyi, but if you wanted to say, "XYZ is the bomb and you should kill him tomorrow. I will sacrifice myself." And you split this up into sperate messages, here are the %'s.

5% chance a single message with sender leaks.

xyz is the bomb

and you should

kill him tomorrow

i will

sacrifice myself

Will leak to a 1/4 chance of one of these leaking. It will also mean that 1/4 has a 50/50 chance of leaking recipient too.

This will make for an interesting game.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:50 am**

TheGeneral2112 wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role
Just an fyi, but if you wanted to say, "XYZ is the bomb and you should kill him tomorrow. I will sacrifice myself." And you split this up into sperate messages, here are the %'s.

5% chance a single message with sender leaks.

xyz is the bomb

and you should

kill him tomorrow

i will

sacrifice myself

Will leak to a 1/4 chance of one of these leaking. It will also mean that 1/4 has a 50/50 chance of leaking recipient too.

This will make for an interesting game.

....

I just thought of so many ways the mafia could screw others with this. Put me down as a reserve for now! I need one of my games to end or get close to the end before taking on another.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:55 am**

soundman wrote:
TheGeneral2112 wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role
Just an fyi, but if you wanted to say, "XYZ is the bomb and you should kill him tomorrow. I will sacrifice myself." And you split this up into sperate messages, here are the %'s.

5% chance a single message with sender leaks.

xyz is the bomb

and you should

kill him tomorrow

i will

sacrifice myself

Will leak to a 1/4 chance of one of these leaking. It will also mean that 1/4 has a 50/50 chance of leaking recipient too.

This will make for an interesting game.
.... I just thought of so many ways the mafia could screw others with this. Put me down as a reserve for now! I need one of my games to end or get close to the end before taking on another.

This is the point. Yes, they could.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 4:15 pm**

TheGeneral2112 wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role
Just an fyi, but if you wanted to say, "XYZ is the bomb and you should kill him tomorrow. I will sacrifice myself." And you split this up into sperate messages, here are the %'s.

5% chance a single message with sender leaks.

xyz is the bomb

and you should

kill him tomorrow

i will

sacrifice myself

Will leak to a 1/4 chance of one of these leaking. It will also mean that 1/4 has a 50/50 chance of leaking recipient too.

This will make for an interesting game.

I dont understand the math..... Each PM should have its own individual 5% chance if I was reading it correctly.

So you would goto Random.org and it defaults a number between 1-100, so if 1-5 means a leak then you would just hit the Generate button 4 times right?

Please correct me if I am thinking wrong.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:39 pm**

MoB Deadly wrote:
TheGeneral2112 wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:Ill take my 5% chance I think haha. They wont care because I declared I am going to do it regardless of my role
Just an fyi, but if you wanted to say, "XYZ is the bomb and you should kill him tomorrow. I will sacrifice myself." And you split this up into sperate messages, here are the %'s.

5% chance a single message with sender leaks.

xyz is the bomb

and you should

kill him tomorrow

i will

sacrifice myself

Will leak to a 1/4 chance of one of these leaking. It will also mean that 1/4 has a 50/50 chance of leaking recipient too.

This will make for an interesting game.
I dont understand the math..... Each PM should have its own individual 5% chance if I was reading it correctly.

So you would goto Random.org and it defaults a number between 1-100, so if 1-5 means a leak then you would just hit the Generate button 4 times right?

Please correct me if I am thinking wrong.

I would hit generate once. If the number is 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5, the PM leaks. If the PM leakes, the sender will be displayed. I then press generate again. If it is any number under 50 out of 100, the recipient's name will leak as well as the sender's name and PM.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:52 pm**

Correct, so 4 individual PMs is no where near a 25% chance of leak.
Hitting 1,2,3,4,5 out of 100 when you press generate 4 times is not the same odds of

hitting a 1 in a 1/4 scenario.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:26 pm**

MoB Deadly wrote:Correct, so 4 individual PMs is no where near a 25% chance of leak.
Hitting 1,2,3,4,5 out of 100 when you press generate 4 times is not the same odds of

hitting a 1 in a 1/4 scenario.

It's all statistics, basically General is right. All he is really saying is the more you have PMed people the more likely one message is to have leaked.

Posted: **Wed Jan 11, 2012 11:30 pm**

Okay, Ill stop killing this then. sorry general for clogging up your signup thread

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:20 am**

MoB Deadly wrote:Correct, so 4 individual PMs is no where near a 25% chance of leak.
Hitting 1,2,3,4,5 out of 100 when you press generate 4 times is not the same odds of

hitting a 1 in a 1/4 scenario.

In my example I showed 5 PMs. A 5% chance per message means there is a 1/4 chance that one of the 5 pms will leak. Edoc is correct. Don't worry about clogging the thread. If you had these questions, someone else is prolly wondering the same thing.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:33 pm**

wrong. to correctly get the odds of either of the pms leaking, it's the easiest to calculate the chance of none of them leaking.

the change that every single message does not leak is 95%, and since there's 5 messages we have to calculate 95% to the power of 5, or 0.95⁵. which is rougly 0.7738 or 77.38% therefore, the chance of one or more of the messages leaking is 100-77.38= 22.62% chance. and not 25%.

otherwise you'd get a paradox after 20 pm's, as 20 pm's would by your logic result in a 100% chance at leaking, and every subsequent post would increase the odds by 5%, which would result in a 105%+ chance of leaking, so then a post and a few extra words will leak?

in fact when someone sends 20 pms, the chance of one (or more) of them leaking is only as low as 64.16% and not even close to 100%! (100% is a value you'll never ever reach, even after 100 posts, the chance is still 99.994% and after 50 posts it's 92%ish)

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:59 pm**

Thank you Zimmah! That was the point I was trying to make, but 1) Didnt feel like getting into a debate 2) didn't feel like making such a big post. 3) Didn't think it was important.

22.62 for 4 PMs though is significantly higher than I thought. I estimated it would be closer to about 15%

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:29 pm**

This is why this game adds such an awesome element. It really is make or break.

Posted: **Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:53 pm**

No flavor?

Sweet! Count me in. That FFVII one was a brutal game to cut one's teeth on (for someone who's never played FF). I had a stellar performance getting killed the first night.

All this is to say, still a noob, but willing to give mafia another chance. I apologize in advance for rookie mistakes and stupid Q's

agent

Posted: **Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:43 pm**

agentcom wrote:No flavor?

Sweet! Count me in. That FFVII one was a brutal game to cut one's teeth on (for someone who's never played FF). I had a stellar performance getting killed the first night.

All this is to say, still a noob, but willing to give mafia another chance. I apologize in advance for rookie mistakes and stupid Q's

agent

shweet

Conquer Club

TheGeneral's Pro Mafia [Town Wins!] Night actions released

TheGeneral's Pro Mafia [Town Wins!] Night actions released

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