One more thing about the dice.

[KLOBBER]

The following, in red, is an absolutely irrefutable fact:

There are absolutely no predictable likelihoods, greater or lesser, associated with the actual dice patterns on this site. Every single one of these complaints is based on unscientific, incorrect theories and bad predictions, nothing more, nothing less.

I'm going to try a different tack in an attempt to make the point I tried to make 8 posts back ...

This is the new tack:
I completely agree with your irrefutable fact Klobber. I mean that sincerely.

This is the clever bit ( ) :
That is why I long ago gave up posting in this thread (to argue that the dice are in fact legitimate). It's good for my health and, more importantly, good for the health of thread which can then serve its purpose of allowing the dice-unbeliever's to let off steam. Coming in here to argue with the dice un-believers blocks their outlet ...

Am I allowed to discuss the points brought up in this thread?

[mpjh]

Yes.

[RADAGA]

The "dice analyzer," whatever in the world that may be, is obviously wrong.

Maybe you should get an "intensity level" analyzer, or better yet, realize that predicting the unpredictable is impossible, no matter what you call your predictable and unscientific computer program.

If you set for yourself an impossible task, then you are bound to fail, and this is what has happened to you, sadly.

I'm very happy with the dice, as I simply accept them as they are: unpredictable.

Learn.

Unwanted, unasked, unnecessary, uneducated, unfortunate, unforgivable sarcasm, however, unfortunatelly, not uncommon neither unintentional at all.

[KoE_Sirius]

Yeah it's really hard to know if you were unlucky or the dice are not random enough.

Just to be safe, I replaced the default random number generator with a better one.

Maybe some day I would add a no-luck option, but it's not something I want to build right now.

[RADAGA]

2009-04-29 14:37:41 - RADAGA deployed 7 troops on Warburton
2009-04-29 14:37:55 - RADAGA deployed 10 troops on Tennant Creek
2009-04-29 14:38:01 - RADAGA assaulted Port Hedland from Warburton and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:09 - RADAGA assaulted Goldfields from Port Hedland and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:14 - RADAGA assaulted Kimberley from Goldfields and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:21 - RADAGA assaulted Alice Springs from Kimberley and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:41 - RADAGA assaulted Arnhem Land from Tennant Creek and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:52 - RADAGA assaulted Darwin from Arnhem Land and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:39:01 - RADAGA assaulted Mt. Isa from Tennant Creek and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja

As usual, all of their defended by 1.
I had 5 troops on Warburton already, and 3 on tennant creek.

25 troops to conquer seven territories. He is a (paying) Lt. so I won seven 3x1 and lost 16 (I stopped before I ran out of armies)

It is getting all-too-common to get improbable results like those.

[Timminz]

2009-04-29 14:37:41 - RADAGA deployed 7 troops on Warburton
2009-04-29 14:37:55 - RADAGA deployed 10 troops on Tennant Creek
2009-04-29 14:38:01 - RADAGA assaulted Port Hedland from Warburton and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:09 - RADAGA assaulted Goldfields from Port Hedland and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:14 - RADAGA assaulted Kimberley from Goldfields and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:21 - RADAGA assaulted Alice Springs from Kimberley and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:41 - RADAGA assaulted Arnhem Land from Tennant Creek and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:38:52 - RADAGA assaulted Darwin from Arnhem Land and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja
2009-04-29 14:39:01 - RADAGA assaulted Mt. Isa from Tennant Creek and conquered it from IvoryCoast Ninja

As usual, all of their defended by 1.
I had 5 troops on Warburton already, and 3 on tennant creek.

25 troops to conquer seven territories. He is a (paying) Lt. so I won seven 3x1 and lost 16 (I stopped before I ran out of armies)

It is getting all-too-common to get improbable results like those.

The dice gods know what you did!

[e_i_pi]

The "dice analyzer," whatever in the world that may be, is obviously wrong.

Maybe you should get an "intensity level" analyzer, or better yet, realize that predicting the unpredictable is impossible, no matter what you call your predictable and unscientific computer program.

If you set for yourself an impossible task, then you are bound to fail, and this is what has happened to you, sadly.

I'm very happy with the dice, as I simply accept them as they are: unpredictable.

Learn.

Unwanted, unasked, unnecessary, uneducated, unfortunate, unforgivable sarcasm, however, unfortunatelly, not uncommon neither unintentional at all.

[RADAGA]

Game 4665131

20 on commons, to get 7 on circulation

No autoattack

Ends 3 on commons, still 2 to kill on circulation.

Lost 17 ... killed five. wonder what the odds are. Cannot be very much, since it happened yet once more in the same game, today, last round, when I placed 24 armies to kill 19, and was left with 3 against 13.

I think it is lovely when this site, that is never, EVER wrong, proves that the whole fields of math called probability and statistics prove to be wrong. No wonder creationism is getting such power nowadays. Science is all wrong, faith is everything, specially blind faith.

Thanks to my bad strategy and poor understanding of the game, even with those rolls, I will win this one.

[RADAGA]

Below, a typical autoattack combat:

9 rounds:

Double wins: 1
Ties: 5
Double Losses: 3

You know why pepople here say: never autoattack? It is simple, if you autoattack and analyse the results, the system flaws become clear.

Combat

Thailand:

* 5
* 4
* 5

- vs -

China:

* 4
* 4

Combat

Thailand:

* 2
* 3
* 5

- vs -

China:

* 3
* 3

Combat

Thailand:

* 3
* 4
* 3

- vs -

China:

* 4
* 1

Combat

Thailand:

* 1
* 4
* 6

- vs -

China:

* 6
* 2

Combat

Thailand:

* 4
* 3
* 4

- vs -

China:

* 2
* 5

Combat

Thailand:

* 4
* 1
* 1

- vs -

China:

* 4
* 3

Combat

Thailand:

* 3
* 1
* 3

- vs -

China:

* 5
* 4

Combat

Thailand:

* 3
* 4
* 4

- vs -

China:

* 4
* 6

Combat

Thailand:

* 5
* 3
* 2

- vs -

China:

* 2
* 6

================

[RADAGA]

Nine 3x1 misses in a row. What are the odds?

[lancehoch]

Nine 3x1 misses in a row. What are the odds?

0.01298%

[a.sub]

Nine 3x1 misses in a row. What are the odds?

0.01298%

75.4243827% chance of winning a 3v1
24.57561728% chance of losing a 3v1
.0003269940997% chance of losing 9
or 1 out of 465661

[e_i_pi]

I was winning a 1v1 AoM game with about 19 territories to about 13-14, had about 14 armies more than my opponent. My opponent grabbed a bonus, protected by a 3 on the port and a 1 on the resource. First round against this, I went 0-8. Next round I had to go through 5,1 - I rolled 0-6. Oh well I thought, and moved on to my next 1v1 AoM game, where I dropped 5 ports, including the port on Pirate Cove. I promptly went through my opponent, got Pirate Cove, and won in about 6 rounds.

Moral of the story: Move on, chill out. Pool all your bad luck into one game, win the rest

[a.sub]

my dices are rigged so the defender gets a 6 3% more often than it should lol

[Thezzaruz]

1700 rolls...

[RADAGA]

Nine 3x1 misses in a row. What are the odds?

0.01298%

75.4243827% chance of winning a 3v1
24.57561728% chance of losing a 3v1
.0003269940997% chance of losing 9
or 1 out of 465661

Thanks. I should have played the lottery instead. I only rolled 3,682 3x1.

Or else, I should feel relieved. I can roll roughtly another 462.000 times and not miss nine in a row. 1.5 years of conquerclub gave me 3.6k rolls. I can play another 150 years and not see something like this again! yay!

[s3xt0y]

f*ck the dice, sorry for going off topic...just hating them right now, instead of being up a lot of points, im down a lot of points grrrrrr

s3x

[Beatfactor]

I hear a lot of players on here complaining about the way the dice falls, either abusively of they have a little grrr but hide it behind a friendly chat. I being one of them. I have played many games like many others and we put a lot of effort and thought into our strategies. Yet they are all blown away by the shear bad luck of how the dice rolls. Example. I played against a player and i destroyed 93 of his troops with just 54 of mine and i still had 23 to carry on and take his castle in feudal. During the same day, i attacked 71 with 112 and i was killed down to 8 yet he still had 2.
My question is, who actually controls the dice and what is the real win/lose ratio on the dice? And can it be set to 50/50 so ppl can play with strategy and not luck, hoping the dice don't screw them up.
I know it just a game but there are a few ppl out there who take it seriously and end up throwing abusive language about or ppl are called bad team player or are foed.

There, thats my whining for the day LOL!!! Have fun ppl

Beatfactor

[RADAGA]

I hear a lot of players on here complaining about the way the dice falls, either abusively of they have a little grrr but hide it behind a friendly chat. I being one of them. I have played many games like many others and we put a lot of effort and thought into our strategies. Yet they are all blown away by the shear bad luck of how the dice rolls. Example. I played against a player and i destroyed 93 of his troops with just 54 of mine and i still had 23 to carry on and take his castle in feudal. During the same day, i attacked 71 with 112 and i was killed down to 8 yet he still had 2.
My question is, who actually controls the dice and what is the real win/lose ratio on the dice? And can it be set to 50/50 so ppl can play with strategy and not luck, hoping the dice don't screw them up.
I know it just a game but there are a few ppl out there who take it seriously and end up throwing abusive language about or ppl are called bad team player or are foed.

There, thats my whining for the day LOL!!! Have fun ppl

Beatfactor

The problem is not "who controls it?" but "is it truly random?"

And the answer, can be illustrated here:



Personally, I believe it is UNPREDICTABLE but not statistically correct.

[Thezzaruz]

My question is, who actually controls the dice

random.org generates the numbers (as already mentioned repeatedly in this thread).

what is the real win/lose ratio on the dice?

Why don't you get the Dice Analyzer plug-in. It will show you both your own results and the expected ones (of a truly random dice). Then go throw a couple of thousands dies and don't come back to bitch unless your numbers greatly varies from the expected.

And can it be set to 50/50 so ppl can play with strategy and not luck, hoping the dice don't screw them up.

No it can't as 50/50 is nowhere near what a truly random dice should produce.
Go read up on odds and probability and get a clue before coming here to bitch.

[lancehoch]

Thezz (and anyone else who may not realize), that post was made in Q&A and was merged into this thread.

[Bruceswar]

f*ck the dice, sorry for going off topic...just hating them right now, instead of being up a lot of points, im down a lot of points grrrrrr

s3x

I agree 100%

Last week has just been sick...

Within the last 4 hours.. I have seen..
29 vs 1 go to 12 vs 1
20 vs 10 go to 3 vs 3
8 vs 3 go to 2 vs 2
7 vs 1 vs 1 not make it...
6 vs 3 go to 2 vs 3
11 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 with 2 left over
40 vs 20 with 35 left over
9 vs 3 vs 3 with 9 left over
11 vs 3 go to 3 vs 2

This all within the last 5 hours or so. What this means to me is the dice are all over the place. A player has a much better strategy only to be killed by the dice. Makes you want to puke!

[Thezzaruz]

11 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 with 2 left over

I'm not going to bother with all but this one actually isn't that unlikely...

Thezz (and anyone else who may not realize), that post was made in Q&A and was merged into this thread.

My points still stands though...

[RADAGA]

what is the real win/lose ratio on the dice?

Why don't you get the Dice Analyzer plug-in. It will show you both your own results and the expected ones (of a truly random dice). Then go throw a couple of thousands dies and don't come back to bitch unless your numbers greatly varies from the expected.

WRONG! If it is "truly random" then you cannot have any "expected results"

The statistical "expected" values are just a matematical staple to give some order on the chaos a truly random system represents. If you get the expected values, and most will NOT get them, not the EXACT expected ones, ta least, then you´re good.

But if you DONT GET the expected values, but wildly aberrant ones, it will still be fine, because, since it is random, it means it cannot be predictable AT ALL.

Been there, done that.

[Bruceswar]

11 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 vs 3 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 with 2 left over

I'm not going to bother with all but this one actually isn't that unlikely...

are you kidding??? you realize that is perfect dice over 9 spots. Never gonna happen in real life. Should not happen on CC either. Attacking or defending.