I lost 20 men to 2 in one turn

xtratabasco · Post by **xtratabasco** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:31 pm

I lost 20 men and won 2 in one turn, this has happened twice to me on this site.

I have been playing Risk for 30+ years and never, ever lost that bad.

Has anyone lost worse than that?

and how is that possible?

I would imagine that you might get hit by lightening 3 times before your dice roll like that.

I guess I better stay in when its raining. :shock:

Vader_09 · Post by **Vader_09** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:44 pm

those rolls have been happening to me for like a week

sully800 · Post by **sully800** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:56 pm

Well first of all, I'm sorry to hear about the bad beat. It must be a terrible sight when something like that happens. I have seen a bit worse than that (15v1 losing) but its still pretty bad.

As for the comment, "how is that possible?"....well, the rule of large numbers my friend!

Let's assume that you lost every attack, so your defender still had 2 men left at the end. The probability of that happening would be 4.6*10^-4%. Not very good of course, though the actual odds of losing the attack outright are a little higher because you could also defeat one of his men but then lose to the rest.

Anyway, Andy has posted that CC goes through 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day, though that number was from november. Of course we must go through even more than that now because the site is ever growing, but how much more I can't say....so I'll use 125,000.

The math from there is simple- 4.6*10^-4*125000 = 57

That means that if every attack made on the site was 3v2 dice, this would occur 57 times a day. Of course people have many different types of attacks as well, and they won't often be in the 20v2 situation you described. But if they were, despite the small odds of it happening, it would happen multiple times a day simply because so many dice are thrown around this site.

It's just a shame that it had to be you on that occasion!

Edit- Sorry, I misread your post based on the title. You lost 20 men and defeated two, not lost 20 men and defeated 0 because you were facing 2. Well, that just makes the chances of it happening a bit higher! :wink:

*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*

xtratabasco · Post by **xtratabasco** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:16 am

sully800 wrote:It's just a shame that it had to be you on that occasion!

Edit- Sorry, I misread your post based on the title. You lost 20 men and defeated two, not lost 20 men and defeated 0 because you were facing 2. Well, that just makes the chances of it happening a bit higher!

*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*

To add insult to injury, I didnt get a card because I couldnt beat all 3 men. LOL

millej11 · Post by **millej11** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:36 am

In those situations I find it helpful to slam your fist on your desk really hard, and yell f*ck really loud.

Flinn · Post by **Flinn** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:03 am

millej11 wrote:In those situations I find it helpful to slam your fist on your desk really hard, and yell f*ck really loud.

I concur and often use this tactic.

Dariune · Post by **Dariune** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:40 am

millej11 wrote:In those situations I find it helpful to slam your fist on your desk really hard, and yell f*ck really loud.

I am also a follower of that tried and tested tactic

Uberwald · Post by **Uberwald** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:46 am

Oh yes and occasionally bash head into keyboard aswell...

AndrewB · Post by **AndrewB** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:48 am

Dariune wrote:
millej11 wrote:In those situations I find it helpful to slam your fist on your desk really hard, and yell f*ck really loud.

I am also a follower of that tried and tested tactic

Don't shout it very loud, because you can get a negative feedback for that! Like the ones which I've got.

SargentFluffy · Post by **SargentFluffy** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:54 am

My worst ever was 29 to 2...I lost all. I almost slipped into depression...

Jork · Post by **Jork** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:47 pm

ugh....that's just downright painful....nuff said! :cry:

Ronaldinho · Post by **Ronaldinho** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:51 pm

Everytime i get wank dice such as that, it put another £5 into my money jar, im saving up to buy a plane ticket, lack will be getting a visit from me shorty,

Anarkistsdream · Post by **Anarkistsdream** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:55 pm

Ronaldinho wrote:Everytime i get wank dice such as that, it put another £5 into my money jar, im saving up to buy a plane ticket, lack will be getting a visit from me shorty,

FIVE pounds everytime!?! That must be one heavy jar!

Ronaldinho · Post by **Ronaldinho** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:04 pm

Anarkistsdream wrote:
Ronaldinho wrote:Everytime i get wank dice such as that, it put another £5 into my money jar, im saving up to buy a plane ticket, lack will be getting a visit from me shorty,

FIVE pounds everytime!?! That must be one heavy jar!

yeah paper notes, not 1p's n shit lmfao!!

Anarkistsdream · Post by **Anarkistsdream** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:17 pm

Ronaldinho wrote:
Anarkistsdream wrote:
Ronaldinho wrote:Everytime i get wank dice such as that, it put another £5 into my money jar, im saving up to buy a plane ticket, lack will be getting a visit from me shorty,

FIVE pounds everytime!?! That must be one heavy jar!

yeah paper notes, not 1p's n shit lmfao!!

I was making a joke about how the UK uses pounds and not dollars... I guess it either a) wasn't that funny, or b) wasn't that funny..... *sigh*

spinwizard · Post by **spinwizard** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:22 pm

Anarkistsdream wrote:
Ronaldinho wrote:
Anarkistsdream wrote:
Ronaldinho wrote:Everytime i get wank dice such as that, it put another £5 into my money jar, im saving up to buy a plane ticket, lack will be getting a visit from me shorty,

FIVE pounds everytime!?! That must be one heavy jar!

yeah paper notes, not 1p's n shit lmfao!!

I was making a joke about how the UK uses pounds and not dollars... I guess it either a) wasn't that funny, or b) wasn't that funny..... *sigh*

NO! sorry but it was not funny! LOL :lol:

Anarkistsdream · Post by **Anarkistsdream** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:27 pm

Eh... I tried.

Ronaldinho · Post by **Ronaldinho** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:31 pm

Dont worry probs just me, dident really process that through my head at 1st :wink:

spinwizard · Post by **spinwizard** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 1:32 pm

....damm i am soo slow!!! i get it now :lol:

silvanthalas · Post by **silvanthalas** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 4:07 pm

SargentFluffy wrote:My worst ever was 29 to 2...I lost all. I almost slipped into depression...

Kind of makes you wish for something extra on your side due to having overwhelming numbers of armies, doesn't it?

Jamie · Post by **Jamie** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 8:41 pm

I think all CC users are well aware the Dice on this site aren't as fair for the attackers as they are in real life, but they are as unfair for everyone, so be it.

xtratabasco · Post by **xtratabasco** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 8:47 pm

SargentFluffy wrote:My worst ever was 29 to 2...I lost all. I almost slipped into depression...

Damn.

Zackismet · Post by **Zackismet** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 9:36 pm

millej11 wrote:In those situations I find it helpful to slam your fist on your desk really hard, and yell f*ck really loud.

This is suprisingly helpful.

maniacmath17 · Post by **maniacmath17** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:17 pm

sully800 wrote:Well first of all, I'm sorry to hear about the bad beat. It must be a terrible sight when something like that happens. I have seen a bit worse than that (15v1 losing) but its still pretty bad.

As for the comment, "how is that possible?"....well, the rule of large numbers my friend!

Let's assume that you lost every attack, so your defender still had 2 men left at the end. The probability of that happening would be 4.6*10^-4%. Not very good of course, though the actual odds of losing the attack outright are a little higher because you could also defeat one of his men but then lose to the rest.

Anyway, Andy has posted that CC goes through 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day, though that number was from november. Of course we must go through even more than that now because the site is ever growing, but how much more I can't say....so I'll use 125,000.

The math from there is simple- 4.6*10^-4*125000 = 57

That means that if every attack made on the site was 3v2 dice, this would occur 57 times a day. Of course people have many different types of attacks as well, and they won't often be in the 20v2 situation you described. But if they were, despite the small odds of it happening, it would happen multiple times a day simply because so many dice are thrown around this site.

It's just a shame that it had to be you on that occasion!

Edit- Sorry, I misread your post based on the title. You lost 20 men and defeated two, not lost 20 men and defeated 0 because you were facing 2. Well, that just makes the chances of it happening a bit higher!

*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*

Well the chances of going from a 20 v 2 down to a 2 v 2 is .2926 ^ 9 which is 1.6 ^ -5 or about 1 in every 62500. And with all the games on this site it wouldn't take long to go through 62500 of the 20 v 2 attacks. And since yours was losing 20 and killing 2, its even more likely to happen.

This is nothing compared to the guy that lost like a 24 v 1. The chances of that are so ridiculous that it should never happen again in our lifetimes.

lilwdlnddude · Post by **lilwdlnddude** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:38 pm

sully800 wrote:*Awaits maniac to show up and make corrections...*

and ha came! wow this is all very interesting and everyone should concider this in there attacks. well when they play online atleast... since i seem to lose dice rolls on CC alot, ive noticed that in the real board game i am way more cautious than i used to be. i dont know if thats a good thing or not...