f-ing dice

[6 King Man]

So sorry I renewed my premium membership, I'll be sure to stop playing once these games are done, I read all the threads about how the dice are random but that's a load, I just lost 12 in a row before I won 1, barely took over a 2 with a 15, that's statistically impossible, or at least the equivalent of winning the lottery, the dice may be random over very long statistical testing, but over short term tests they are very streaky

[The Neon Peon]

I always love it when people leave the site because they think the dice aren't random. It means there is a slightly higher percent of people who know logic left.

Best wishes,
The Neon Peon

[6 King Man]

Enlighten me logic boy, 15 against a 2 has a 99.95% chance of winning, so statistically I should see this little anomaly less than 1 out of 1000 games, but its all too familiar, tell me where my logic is off, just because you dont see crap dice doesnt mean they dont exist

[The Neon Peon]

Enlighten me logic boy, 15 against a 2 has a 99.95% chance of winning, so statistically I should see this little anomaly less than 1 out of 1000 games, but its all too familiar, tell me where my logic is off, just because you dont see crap dice doesnt mean they dont exist

I'll make a list of the places you are not using logic.

1. Everyone has the same dice. Do you think the owners of the site pick and choose who gets good dice and who gets bad?
2. You have played more than a 1000 games, so losing a 15v2 is possible. Besides, you did not lose the 15v2 either as you said in your first post.
3. The definition of random is not having a pattern. Go attack 100v100 and show to me that at some point it starts repeating over and over again.
4. You have absolutely no idea what the dice on CC are when you complain about them. Let me explain them to you. CC has a string of 500,000 numbers 1-6 that was generated by random.org - when someone attacks, it simply takes the next set of numbers in the line and uses those for the dice. That is why there are streaks: because they are random.
5. You have not gotten the dice analyzer plug in. Go get it, as long as you don't clear your cookies, it will keep track of all the dice you roll, how many you win, how many you lose, how many sixes you roll, how many sixes your opponents roll and all sorts of fun stuff. How do I know you don't have it? Because anyone who has used it to analyze a couple thousand rolls sees that the dice are in fact random and fair.

[squishyg]

It's not 15 against 2. It's 3 v 2 on your first roll (and second and third and forth, depending on how it goes).

[6 King Man]

Neon Logic Boy avoids my major contention which is that long term statistical randomness does not indicate anything about short term patterns, want to see a short term pattern, watch me loose 0-2 6 times in a row, that is a pattern which is not random, is it possible, of course, but as I said only 5 chances in 10,000 that it happens, so when I see patterns like that over and over (maybe not quite to that degree, but you get my point) it tells me empirically that the dice are not random, if I won with a 2 against a 15 now and then, then maybe I could square that result, but sorry have not seen it, by the way, you can't defend the fact that the dice are random by referencing the motives of the the web site random.com, ...it must be random because why wouldn't it be is not an argument, well not a defensible one, there can be an infinite number of reasons why the dice are streaky, I have no idea why they are, but when I see a 15 barely beat a 2, and have a sense of deja vu, that's not a good indicator of randomness.

To the other post, yes its 3 vs 2, over and over, go check out your probability and stat's 101 book, the likely hood of that result repeating over and over gets to be lower as you go through more dice rolls

[40kguy]

just letting you i have longer losing streaks then you have

[KristenAmazon]

Definition: Random means not completely predetermined by the other variables available.

Examples: Consider the function plus(x,y) which we define to have the value x+y. Every time one applies this function to a given x and y, it would give the same answer. Such a function is deterministic, that is, nonrandom.

Case in point?

"15 vs 2, I should win it!" - non-random. Even if it is a likely occurance, the odds of the defense failing the exact ammount of times is unlikely. To decide that the result must be a win, you are claiming that any result other than a win is unnacceptable. Whether you lose 5, 8, 12 men killing it should not be a complaint, but still it is? How many attackers are lost vs how many defenders are lost is only capped by how many defenders and attackers are there.

If you attack with 15 attackers, be prepared to risk losing 15 attackers.



Consider by contrast the function N(0,1) which we define to give back a draw from a standard normal distribution. This function does not return the same value every time, even when given the same parameters, 0 and 1. Such a function is random, or stochastic.

Because dice are random, the occasional 15 vs 2 will fail. More attackers than defenders does not mean that a win will necessarily be the result - Random.

[6 King Man]

maybe you didn't actually read my posts...thanks for the math lesson

[jammyjames]

i see exactly what you are saying, i just take it in my stride now, you'll get bored of complaining one day. enjoy it while you can

[The Neon Peon]

Neon Logic Boy avoids my major contention which is that long term statistical randomness does not indicate anything about short term patterns, want to see a short term pattern, watch me loose 0-2 6 times in a row, that is a pattern which is not random, is it possible, of course, but as I said only 5 chances in 10,000 that it happens, so when I see patterns like that over and over (maybe not quite to that degree, but you get my point) it tells me empirically that the dice are not random, if I won with a 2 against a 15 now and then, then maybe I could square that result, but sorry have not seen it, by the way, you can't defend the fact that the dice are random by referencing the motives of the the web site random.com, ...it must be random because why wouldn't it be is not an argument, well not a defensible one, there can be an infinite number of reasons why the dice are streaky, I have no idea why they are, but when I see a 15 barely beat a 2, and have a sense of deja vu, that's not a good indicator of randomness.

To the other post, yes its 3 vs 2, over and over, go check out your probability and stat's 101 book, the likely hood of that result repeating over and over gets to be lower as you go through more dice rolls

That is because you don't understand the concept of something being random. If you did NOT constantly see horrible dice, that would be a great indicator that the dice ARE random.

If something is random, then stuff like that will happen. Go roll a couple hundred dice in real life and you will notice no difference between them and the game. Seriously, go try it. Or go on any dice generator online and you will find the same streaks occur. Number some cards 1-6 and have a 500 friends each pick one out at random and you will find the same thing.

What you are describing is the exact way something random should work. If the dice were not random, firstly, the long term effect would be far different from the statistical probability. If the dice were not random, then you would not see bad dice at all.

Here is another math lesson:

You have played 1500 games, let's assume they were all on doodle, let's assume they were all 1v1, and let's assume that you never had to attack anything other than your opponent. And let's assume games took 6 rounds. Let's also assume you've won half your rolls.

1500 times (6 territories times 3 troops each plus 18 troops deploy) = 54000 rolls of dice you have performed.
There is a less than 50% chance that you have not had this happen to you:
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
in that order.

There is approximately a 5% chance that this has not happened to you:
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2

There is a 0.005% chance that you have not had this happen to you:
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2

Now, take the last example... 99.995% chance of 7 double losses in a row with the amount of games you played. 0.018% chance of it happening each time you make 7 rolls, so that is about 9 every 50,000 times. You've rolled 54,000 rolls. I have a feeling there is a reason why you get this deja vu...

[Thezzaruz]

That is because you don't understand the concept of something being random.

[isaiah40]

Of course if had what I had one game he wouldn't be complaining at all. I had one game where I'd go 16v17 come out with 14 left over. I continued the attack figuring why not? I ended up taking close to 35 men with those original 14. With those dice I did win the game (not to mention 10 rainbows in a row in a flat). So the opposite is true. Should I complain and say the dice aren't random when this happens?? I don't think so. I've also had games where I lost every single man, so let's face it both ways happen so we all have to get a life, suck it up and move on. It doesn't mean I don't like it - heck no one likes losing - I just deal with it.

[Hoots]

Here is another math lesson:

You have played 1500 games, let's assume they were all on doodle, let's assume they were all 1v1, and let's assume that you never had to attack anything other than your opponent. And let's assume games took 6 rounds. Let's also assume you've won half your rolls.

1500 times (6 territories times 3 troops each plus 18 troops deploy) = 54000 rolls of dice you have performed.
There is a less than 50% chance that you have not had this happen to you:
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
in that order.

There is approximately a 5% chance that this has not happened to you:
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2

There is a 0.005% chance that you have not had this happen to you:
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2
kill 0 - lose 2

Now, take the last example... 99.995% chance of 7 double losses in a row with the amount of games you played. 0.018% chance of it happening each time you make 7 rolls, so that is about 9 every 50,000 times. You've rolled 54,000 rolls. I have a feeling there is a reason why you get this deja vu...

Good numbers. I think his complaint (along with many others) is not that those rolls are happening... but the frequency of them. What are the percentages of seeing these rolls 5 timse? 10? 20? in that span? what are the odds of that happening?

I have seen my share of 0-12's to 0-18's. And i suppose i have seen my share of 12-0's - 18-0's as well (although much tougher to remember ) The question is... are the frequency of these rolls what they should be (per probability/statistics)?

[Army of GOD]

No, I'm pretty sure you slept with the website's sister, so it hates you and un-randomizes the dice for you.

That's what happened to me at least...

[Thezzaruz]

Good numbers. I think his complaint (along with many others) is not that those rolls are happening... but the frequency of them. What are the percentages of seeing these rolls 5 timse? 10? 20? in that span? what are the odds of that happening?

Most people fail to realise that, for the absolute majority of players, in a month worth of playing here (even as a freemium) you'll roll way more dice that you do IRL in you entire life. And hence an outcome that you are unlikely to see sitting around the living room table will instead be commonplace here.

[Hatchman]

So sorry I renewed my premium membership, I'll be sure to stop playing once these games are done, I read all the threads about how the dice are random but that's a load, I just lost 12 in a row before I won 1, barely took over a 2 with a 15, that's statistically impossible, or at least the equivalent of winning the lottery, the dice may be random over very long statistical testing, but over short term tests they are very streaky

Yep, I've been seeing some pretty weird shit lately...

[AAFitz]

So sorry I renewed my premium membership, I'll be sure to stop playing once these games are done, I read all the threads about how the dice are random but that's a load, I just lost 12 in a row before I won 1, barely took over a 2 with a 15, that's statistically impossible, or at least the equivalent of winning the lottery, the dice may be random over very long statistical testing, but over short term tests they are very streaky

Its six bad rolls

[Bruceswar]

So sorry I renewed my premium membership, I'll be sure to stop playing once these games are done, I read all the threads about how the dice are random but that's a load, I just lost 12 in a row before I won 1, barely took over a 2 with a 15, that's statistically impossible, or at least the equivalent of winning the lottery, the dice may be random over very long statistical testing, but over short term tests they are very streaky

Its six bad rolls

Oh come on fitz.... what did the dice test we ran show us? 100 vs 100 won 11/12 times but we saw the dice streak back and forth... So sure over 100 it might balance out, but with small numbers you can see some really odd stuff. Most people see small numbers, hence the number of complaints. with that said I am not sure how to fix it.

[trinicardinal]

So sorry I renewed my premium membership, I'll be sure to stop playing once these games are done, I read all the threads about how the dice are random but that's a load, I just lost 12 in a row before I won 1, barely took over a 2 with a 15, that's statistically impossible, or at least the equivalent of winning the lottery, the dice may be random over very long statistical testing, but over short term tests they are very streaky

By that argument no one should win the lottery since the odds are so much against you but it happens.

That is because you don't understand the concept of something being random.

I agree with those guys!

[elfish_lad]

So sorry I renewed my premium membership, I'll be sure to stop playing once these games are done, I read all the threads about how the dice are random but that's a load, I just lost 12 in a row before I won 1, barely took over a 2 with a 15, that's statistically impossible, or at least the equivalent of winning the lottery, the dice may be random over very long statistical testing, but over short term tests they are very streaky

Dear King Man,

On behalf of the ownership of CC I would like to extend our apologies. In consultation with our legal staff we have decided to refund your money. Please be assured that we in no way intended to offend you with our "assault cubes." Our regrets. We are also sending you flowers. Because you are so sensitive...

[jefjef]

Dear Conquer Club owners - mods - contributors.

I am sorry for every single offensive thought I had ever had and am sorry for every terse comment I ever posted. I AM SORRY!

Now can I have the REAL random dice I payed to play with? In two days I have lost 200 points and seem to average 8 troops to kill 1. My last turn I made, which is a spoils game, I just lost 12 to kill 2 to get a spoil.

Please FORGIVE me and un rig my fuchin dice.

Thank you.

[Georgerx7di]

Enlighten me logic boy, 15 against a 2 has a 99.95% chance of winning, so statistically I should see this little anomaly less than 1 out of 1000 games, but its all too familiar, tell me where my logic is off, just because you dont see crap dice doesnt mean they dont exist

No, statistically you should see this anomaly less than 1 out of 1,000 ROLLS It's not uncommon to roll the dice 100 in one games, so that works out to less than 1 in every ten games by your numbers. It's actually 1/2,000 according to the percentage you gave. That means that 1 in every 20 games if we assume you roll 100 times a game.

[jefjef]

Dear Conquer Club owners - mods - contributors.

I am sorry for every single offensive thought I had ever had and am sorry for every terse comment I ever posted. I AM SORRY!

Now can I have the REAL random dice I payed to play with? In two days I have lost 200 points and seem to average 8 troops to kill 1. My last turn I made, which is a spoils game, I just lost 12 to kill 2 to get a spoil.

Please FORGIVE me and un rig my fuchin dice.

Thank you.

Maybe it was this apology or maybe it was accepting codeblues apology & un-foeing him or maybe demonfork stepped up & unrigged my dice. Could even be my mermaid avi.

But whatever did it MY DICE ARE BACK!!

THANK YOU!

[jonesthecurl]

In a real life roleplay game with actual dice I once roll 4 20's in a row on a d20.
Unfortunately this was in Pendragon where a 20 is a fumble.

odds against - 20 x 20 x 20 x 20. Exactly the same odds as any other pattern - e.g 1,5,9,20 in that order.