Streaky Dice Question

[donkeymile]

HO HUM - another day I log in, play 3 games and see 3 completely ridiculous outcomes ...

as in ... my dice are average or worse, and my opponents are taking attacks with incredible odds ...( 6v3v3v3v2 and 7v8v3v3 just to name a couple).

as of I needed more proof it was time to take my money elsewhere ....

[natty dread]

[donkeymile]

f*ck the fucking dice .... time to walk away ... down 800 points for the 4th time no win 2 years ... enough is enough ....and its not just my dice ... its the opponents CONSISTENTLY taking 5v8's 4v8's etc.

GOODBYE

[natty dread]

[Metsfanmax]

I'm not the only one who KNOWS the bad streaks outlast the good ones - some of the others have already posted long threads and left - and others have just left

Just like Bush KNEW there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

[JoshyBoy]

I'm not the only one who KNOWS the bad streaks outlast the good ones - some of the others have already posted long threads and left - and others have just left

Just like Bush KNEW there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

[donkeymile]

numbers don't lie - a number of long timers have posted and since left, and I have spoken to others who are also leaving because the dice have 'changed.'

[Metsfanmax]

numbers don't lie

Exactly. And no one who has ever complained about the dice has provided proof by showing us the numbers.

[donkeymile]

800 points lost in a matter of weeks and finding so many others who experience similar streaks of bad dice is enough for me to know I'm not halucinating.

I get the random thing and the fact that 'bad dice' or 'good dice' will happen but on the consistent basis that a lot of us see these odd things happening, its just not coincidence.

I've lost 800 or more points about 4 times (at least) in the past 2 years very quickly, and have always struggled to get back up to the 2500 range over months and months of usually not attacking and just stockpiling because I knwo the dice are insane.

anyway .... another few standards to finish off and I'll be gone .... enough is enough

[Woodruff]

numbers don't lie

Exactly. And no one who has ever complained about the dice has provided proof by showing us the numbers.

In-freaking-deed.

[donkeymile]

Log in today - play 5 games - 5 CONSISTENT bad dice for me and opponents 5 games of dice winning 3v4's, 5v6's and even a 3v8 ...... lol.

I don't care if you don't believe me - I lived it.

Have I ever had dice that good? Of course, at times like anyone else. But never for games in a row like I've been seeing the past few months.

Good riddance to CC. so ironic how I yearn for the days the 'dice' were actually closer to being realistic.

[Woodruff]

so ironic how I yearn for the days the 'dice' were actually closer to being realistic.

Yes, it absolutely is ironic. But not in the way you seem to believe.

[carbon020]

i just lost a roll where i lost a auto-roll 18 and the defender lost 1. I just looked it up and the odds of that happening are <0.000001%.

[Metsfanmax]

i just lost a roll where i lost a auto-roll 18 and the defender lost 1. I just looked it up and the odds of that happening are <0.000001%.

Welcome to CC.

[donkeymile]

Woodruffe - you seem to imply that the dice are closer to realistic NOW than they were before, which was a way of trying to be witty on your part I suppose. Well I have played lots and lots of Risk games with real dice and have NEVER come across dice that act like this - certainly not consistently anyway. When you come to expect to lose with odds that are mathematically in your favor, there's a problem.

If I was the only one saying and experiencing this I'd chalk it up to something else. If it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck ... and lots of others see the duck too ... and many warn and accept it to be so just as the previous post suggests, than there is something to it.

[Metsfanmax]

Woodruffe - you seem to imply that the dice are closer to realistic NOW than they were before, which was a way of trying to be witty on your part I suppose. Well I have played lots and lots of Risk games with real dice and have NEVER come across dice that act like this - certainly not consistently anyway. When you come to expect to lose with odds that are mathematically in your favor, there's a problem.

If I was the only one saying and experiencing this I'd chalk it up to something else. If it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck ... and lots of others see the duck too ... and many warn and accept it to be so just as the previous post suggests, than there is something to it.

So, you've played over 2800 games on CC. How many games of real Risk do you think you've played in your life?

[Woodruff]

Woodruffe - you seem to imply that the dice are closer to realistic NOW than they were before, which was a way of trying to be witty on your part I suppose.

I was not trying to be witty, I was being factual. The dice ARE closer to realistic now than they were before.

Well I have played lots and lots of Risk games with real dice and have NEVER come across dice that act like this - certainly not consistently anyway.

The number of games on a board you have played in your life are unlikely to match the number of games you play on CC in three months. That is the major difference.

When you come to expect to lose with odds that are mathematically in your favor, there's a problem.

If you are expecting to lose with odds that are mathematically in your favor, I agree there is a problem. But that problem is not with your dice.

If I was the only one saying and experiencing this I'd chalk it up to something else. If it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck ... and lots of others see the duck too ... and many warn and accept it to be so just as the previous post suggests, than there is something to it.

Yes, there IS something to it - I have been saying that all along. And that "something to it" is called perception.

[musicalmaven]

ok woodruff - you have just proved why you are always saying "it's just that the dice are random", as if that is the simple solution.
you have never had a "streak" of bad luck, or good, that has lasted a full login.
many of us have.
i have played as many as 10 games in one login and have lost on every turn. how's that for streakiness?
as you know from previous posts, i have kept track of my winning and losing for over 4 years.
i remember complaining to bruceswar that it had been 6 months since i had an individual page of stats above normal. how's that for streakiness?
the fact that you, and i assume others, have never experienced a streak as a long as a login
while others have experiences of a day, days and months in length shows a problem.
we all should have had such experiences and those of us who have the experiences fluctuate wildly in our rankings, and our bad streaks are always worse than our good streaks.
my records verify my perception, so it is not a matter of selective memory.
i also have a question. the latest down time had an explanation that one of the functions being installed was a personal dice counter.
my questions are: a) was it successfully installed; b) is it operational and c) how do we access it?
this may help verify some of the complaints as well as verify an odd theory of mine - the computer, somehow, favors some players and some of us are left out in the cold.

[Woodruff]

ok woodruff - you have just proved why you are always saying "it's just that the dice are random", as if that is the simple solution.
you have never had a "streak" of bad luck, or good, that has lasted a full login.
many of us have.
i have played as many as 10 games in one login and have lost on every turn. how's that for streakiness?
as you know from previous posts, i have kept track of my winning and losing for over 4 years.
i remember complaining to bruceswar that it had been 6 months since i had an individual page of stats above normal. how's that for streakiness?
the fact that you, and i assume others, have never experienced a streak as a long as a login
while others have experiences of a day, days and months in length shows a problem.

No, it does not. What it shows is randomness.

we all should have had such experiences

That would not be random.

i also have a question. the latest down time had an explanation that one of the functions being installed was a personal dice counter.
my questions are: a) was it successfully installed; b) is it operational and c) how do we access it?

A good question. I remember seeing that note also, and do not know how to access it.

this may help verify some of the complaints as well as verify an odd theory of mine - the computer, somehow, favors some players and some of us are left out in the cold.

Random.

[patrickaa317]

Log in today - play 5 games - 5 CONSISTENT bad dice for me and opponents 5 games of dice winning 3v4's, 5v6's and even a 3v8 ...... lol.

I don't care if you don't believe me - I lived it.

Have I ever had dice that good? Of course, at times like anyone else. But never for games in a row like I've been seeing the past few months.

Good riddance to CC. so ironic how I yearn for the days the 'dice' were actually closer to being realistic.

So you are complaining that the dice suck for you whether you are the attacker or the defender? Do you think the site is simply programmed to single you out as I'd assume the opponents in those 5 games were at least a few different people.

[canadian bacon]

So 'random' huh - okay then .... why do the long bad dice streaks last so long and the good ones don't? And I'm not talking about single events or even single games or even for that matter, single days of playing. I have experienced numerous times bad streaks lasting weeks and have NEVER experienced good dice streaks lasting anywhere near that long.

I'm currently in a 700-800 point dump and I have generally brutal dice while my opponents are experiencing odd defying dice on a consisitent basis.

To say that I just don't remember the good dice streaks is erroneous, because I actually do and can name the better ones I've had - and it in no way compares to the bad streaks.

There is absolutely something wrong with the system (and part of it is the rank point system) and the fact that a number of old-timers have announced they are leaving because of it, and a number of others have privately told me so means a lot. I have never experienced so much difficulty taking a single troop than I have since the new dice system was implemented. It in no way mirrors what you would see in real life.

someone obviously hasn't done any research on the matter and is sitting on a conspiracy theory band wagon. seriously you need to go look at how the generator works before you start drawing the conclusions you are.

[musicalmaven]

sorry woodruff - you are wrong. come out from behind the behind the curtain of "random". you can't explain everything by simply saying "random".
nobody goes to vegas and always wins.
maybe your memory is as faulty as some of the writers in this, and other posts like it - but if you have never experienced a bad streak of even one turn, that is not random.
you know my record keeping. as i pointed out in my prior post - i went over 6 months and never had an individual page of record keeping be above average. that is not random.
so maybe there is some kind of computer favoritism going on - i know, it is not logical - but it is a fact and you cannot ignore facts.
and as to the "are u mad" poster, who suggests that a players strategy might have as much, or more, to do with the "falling 400 -500 points in a day, or a few days". well you may have a point - i do not know the other complainers.
however, you are missing the point. those of us who do complain are more concerned with the dice not being "square" than the falling 400 - 500 points (and why is it always the falling and not the rising?) as i have pointed out in other posts - strategy means nothing if you put yourself in a good position and the dice consistently fail you.
(as in the example i gave in another post - one of your opponents is down to 1 territory, with 12 men on it. you are next to him with 17. there is no strategy involved here - you place your 3 men to give you a 20 - 12 advantage, and you cannot beat the 12.)
this could be an example of "randomly bad dice", but when it is repeat often, the term "random" simply becomes a means of explaining everything away.
remember - the attacker has the advantage, so if the results are consistently against you, as an attacker, then you look for another explanation.

[musicalmaven]

let me apologize to canadian bacon - i thought it was you who posted that poor strategy was the explanation for the dropping 400 - 500 points in a short time period.
and now i cannot find that post. maybe it was in another thread.

[xenowolff]

i have noticed alot of streaks in my play. in one game just a few minutes ago, i had thirty five troops get destroyed by 8 of my opponents. but in the same game three turns prior, i beat down fifteen of his troops with 5 of mine.

even before i started playing this game, my RL friend Canadian Bacon was, and he showed me it (and eventually got me to play.) when i was deciding on wether or not to play, alot of thought was on the dice generator. ive played with some really bad dice generators, and i think this one is pretty good.

@ jpreno: your third idea is incredible. i plan on doing just that here in the near future. and as JelleR posted, i like you

ive noticed that, since i have a rather upbeat atitude, i tend to notice good streaks faster than bad. and as a free user, im just happy i can play. because thats whats important; enjoying a good game wether you win or lose, imo.

[RADAGA]

Combat
Mohamed:
4
2
5
- vs -
Anthony:
6

Combat
Mohamed:
3
4
4
- vs -
Anthony:
6

Combat
Mohamed:
5
2
1
- vs -
Anthony:
5

Combat
Mohamed:
3
2
2
- vs -
Anthony:
5

Combat
Mohamed:
3
4
4
- vs -
Anthony:
5

Combat
Mohamed:
1
1
4
- vs -
Anthony:
6

Combat
Mohamed:
4
1
1
- vs -
Anthony:
2

This is VERY normal.... here, of course.... AGAIN I lost SIX 3x1 in a row.... I swear I did not rolled the THUSANDS of 3x1 needed to get the LOT I got of such results.

at least once in a month I see something like this. how can you plan for some strategy, if you get things like that once per month? I am not complainig about the average results, but those streaks are simply ridiculous. I have never seen someone lose six three-against-one with real dice.

especially considering defence dice being SIX, SIX, FIVE, FIVE, FIVE, SIX :/