Streaky Dice Question

[Agent 86]

On that note, 2 weeks of the most incredible dice, occasionally for me but most of the time face palming stuff. Roll some big numbers and lose horribly and the odds are even far more out there. Spooky CC has definitely got dice problems, not even close to the real thing.

So my CC career is coming to a final close, enjoyed it but as they say "now I will get a real life". Will stick to the occasional real life game or not at all.

[RADAGA]

And it continues to amaze me.

[liamrisksmart]

And it continues to amaze me.

you have to go to last 25 rolls to show a true bad streak, 1 bad autoroll can give you stats twice as bad as that, so dont read into it too much.

[natty dread]

And it continues to amaze me.

Hello Ragada, I saw this site and immediately thought it might be of help for you:

http://ocd.about.com/od/livingwithoc1/a/OCD_help.htm

[RADAGA]

And it continues to amaze me.

Hello Ragada, I saw this site and immediately thought it might be of help for you:

http://ocd.about.com/od/livingwithoc1/a/OCD_help.htm

Thanks, natty, it is always a good thing to know people care. You pushed the world towards being a better place a little bit today!

[canadian bacon]

alright after going through my post history and seeing new replies to this i feel like proving a little something, so i dug my risk board out of my closet.


dice are streaky. i'm talking IRL dice, as streakiness is a NATURAL part of randomness.


i'm going to be testing 4 sets of dice for you: risk attack dice 3d6, risk defense dice 2d6, standard D&D check dice d20 in 2 wicked colors( camo and crimson respectively.

i will be throwing 20 rolls of each set.


3d6:
roll1, 4 5 3
roll2, 5 1 1
roll3, 6 6 1
roll4, 5 2 1
roll5, 5 5 3
roll6, 5 4 1 note: noticing fives and ones with "abnormal frequency".
roll7, 5 4 4
roll8, 2 1 1
roll9, 4 4 3 note: here in the middle is a neutral streak
roll10, 5 3 1
roll11, 5 2 1
roll12, 6 5 1
roll13, 3 3 2
roll14, 2 2 4
roll15, 4 5 6
roll16, 6 6 2
roll17, 4 3 1
roll18, 5 1 2
roll19, 6 5 4
roll20, 6 4 1 note: here twards the end we see a high streak

note: i decided to use the proper dice as well... attack dice were red and defense were white. also this set came with 3 defence dice...i guess it was a) easier to package b) so you have a spare c) some people play 3 defense dice... iunno *shrug*

2d6
roll1, 2 3
roll2, 1 5 note: the die that landed on 1 did so because it hit my mouse alternate die roll for those who would discount it is, 6 4
roll3, 1 3
roll4, 1 1 note: again one hit my mouse the reroll is 2 2
roll5, 6 1
roll6, 4 3
roll7, 5 1
roll8, 6 1
roll9, 4 1
roll10, 5 3
roll11, 4 2
roll12, 5 2 Note the two hit my mouse the reroll is, 1 6
roll13, 5 2
roll14, 2 1
roll15, 4 1
roll16, 6 5
roll17, 3 2
roll18, 6 2
roll19, 6 4
roll20, 4 1





d20 crimson Note: my first set of dice, they have been rather unkind... i mostly use them for a second d6 in battletech and as a spare set for those who forget theirs in d&d
roll1, 11
roll2, 15
roll3, 5
roll4, 2
roll5, 11
roll6, 15
roll7, 11
roll8, 6 Note: the die did not roll at all, more like, did a 180 degree flop out of my hand the reroll for those would discount that is 12 which hit my mouse the reroll for that is 11
roll9, 20 Note: i epically succeed my diplomacy check and you all now agree the dice are being fair.
roll10, 1 Note: you have epically failed your bluff check, nice try.
roll11, 11
roll12, 11
roll13, 7
roll14, 12
roll15, 6
roll16, 12
roll17, 1
roll18, 1 Note: hit my mouse reroll is, 15
roll19, 4
roll20, 12





d20 camo Note: love these dice. They treat me very well and treat all my friends in the same manner. interesting fact, i got them because i needed green dice for st.patrick's day and because i'm a green blood.

roll1, 4
roll2, 7
roll3, 12
roll4, 10
roll5, 9
roll6, 14
roll7, 1 Note: it's performance anxiety i swear =P.
roll8, 4 note: almost an 18
roll9, 20
roll10, 18
roll11, 2 Note: almost a 20
roll12, 12
roll13, 4
roll14, 3
roll15, 1
roll16, 12
roll17, 9
roll18, 10
roll19, 3
roll20, 4



There you have it. cold hard dice rolls all rolls and misrolls laid out bare for you to see, use this information how you see fit.

[RADAGA]

those dice rolls of yours does not even get close to the streaks we see here.

Just now> 9 vs 12, end 3vs12, oppponent gets his turn, put 11 on the 12 stack = 23 armies.

e proceed to kill those 3, trample a 5, kill 9 more ones and face a 25 stack.. that battle ends with hiim with 3 armis left, having killed 10.

so, 23, conquer 11 lands (leave 11 armies behind) he had 12 fighting force, 3 remained at the end, so he used NINE armies to win a 3x2 3x1 3x2 3x2 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x1 3x2 3x2 3x2 3x2 3x2 3x2

go ahead, get your cold hard dice, stack a 12 pile, get attacked by 9, reinforce after the nine becomes 3 with 11 and try to take out 3 / 5 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 25 (kill 10 of that last, and leave 3 remaining of yours)

start rolling now, 100 trials a day - if you manage to do that before 2076, report here.

[canadian bacon]

i don't understand any of that jargon. note i only rolled 20 times for each set of dice. also note that the program used is true random, dice are not true random as they rolls are based heavily on orientation of the die in 3d space the movement of the hand and gravity, but sure why not challenge accepted.

it just so happens that my dnd group are starting a new campaign and have to make new characters.... this shit happens all the time in character creation with out group.

[RADAGA]

13vs4 end 3x2

[AndyDufresne]

Radaga, we should play some 1vs1 on classic-esque maps, so I can take advantage of your bad rolls.


--Andy

[canadian bacon]

13vs4 end 3x2

OMGWTFBBQ you act like that hasn't happened to everyone else before.

you probably quantify your "streaks" as win or lose. what you fail to grasp is that the numbers on the dice do vary, but for evey die thrown there is a chance you will lose so in theory you could have a "streak" such as follows


225 v 45
163v 56
212 v 36
214 v 35
ect

[RADAGA]

Round 1= 6x3 kill 1 lose 3, no card
Round 2 = 6x2 kill 2, get card
Round 3 = 8x3, kill 1 lose 5, no card

Enterin round 4, 6 player game, everybodybut me have 3 cards. Game lost for me.

And the day continues - 16 armies x 3 = 12 remains ... 12 x 2 = 7 remains

[natty dread]

Yeah, you've done it now. You've found unrefutable evidence that the dice are rigged. Good for you.

I mean, a whole 3 dice rolls? What are the odds!

[AndyDufresne]

Round 1= 6x3 kill 1 lose 3, no card
Round 2 = 6x2 kill 2, get card
Round 3 = 8x3, kill 1 lose 5, no card

Enterin round 4, 6 player game, everybodybut me have 3 cards. Game lost for me.

And the day continues - 16 armies x 3 = 12 remains ... 12 x 2 = 7 remains

RADAGA, maybe sometime in the next couple of weeks, we should play some 1vs1 games vs each other, and then we can compare our dice stats vs one another and see who fairs better. I hope I do.


--Andy

[RADAGA]

Yeah, you've done it now. You've found unrefutable evidence that the dice are rigged. Good for you.

I mean, a whole 3 dice rolls? What are the odds!

No, but I have found irrefutable evidence no one cares, even if you come with a screenshot of a 100x1 loss. I fond also that people have absolute faith on random.org,even if the only proof that it works as it is proclaimed to comes from random.org itself. I found out that this is the best risk-emulator web game, albeit I still believe that there is a sutle flaw in the generator that make ties happen slightly more than they should

I found that people does not know the difference between flaw and schem, since every single person here, when defendidng the system claims I am saying that the dice are RIGGED. I found out I dont care anymore as well.

A whole lot of founding out, indeed.

[RADAGA]

Round 1= 6x3 kill 1 lose 3, no card
Round 2 = 6x2 kill 2, get card
Round 3 = 8x3, kill 1 lose 5, no card

Enterin round 4, 6 player game, everybodybut me have 3 cards. Game lost for me.

And the day continues - 16 armies x 3 = 12 remains ... 12 x 2 = 7 remains

RADAGA, maybe sometime in the next couple of weeks, we should play some 1vs1 games vs each other, and then we can compare our dice stats vs one another and see who fairs better. I hope I do.


--Andy

Okay, lets play 4 of them, as soon as I clear my list of current games. lets do it without any bad hearth, but with the true purpose of analising round by round what happens.

I´d be grateful.

[natty dread]

albeit I still believe that there is a sutle flaw in the generator that make ties happen slightly more than they should

Yeah, you go ahead and believe that, but you don't have any evidence to back up your claim.

Hey, what do you know. Dice Bitching is a religion now.

I found that people does not know the difference between flaw and schem, since every single person here, when defendidng the system claims I am saying that the dice are RIGGED. I found out I dont care anymore as well.

No, I'm claiming you're acting like a whiny crybaby who cries every time you don't get the perfect dice rolls. I'm also claiming you should get over it, because we all get the same dice.

I'm also stating that you're being affected by gambler's fallacy and confirmation bias. Look them up. Those things allow you to rationalize every time your dice rolls perform sub-par as a "flaw in the dice" because it's easier to just blame external factors than own up to the fact that you just got the short stick... because that's what happens with randomness - you can't win every time.

I'm also recommending that you look into improving your strategy. Rank is by no means an accurate indication of skill, but if you can't rise up to at least lieutenant with the game types you play, then there's very obviously something wrong with your strategy.

[canadian bacon]

Yeah, you've done it now. You've found unrefutable evidence that the dice are rigged. Good for you.

I mean, a whole 3 dice rolls? What are the odds!

No, but I have found irrefutable evidence no one cares, even if you come with a screenshot of a 100x1 loss. I fond also that people have absolute faith on random.org,even if the only proof that it works as it is proclaimed to comes from random.org itself. I found out that this is the best risk-emulator web game, albeit I still believe that there is a sutle flaw in the generator that make ties happen slightly more than they should

I found that people does not know the difference between flaw and schem, since every single person here, when defendidng the system claims I am saying that the dice are RIGGED. I found out I dont care anymore as well.

A whole lot of founding out, indeed.

>even if you come with a screenshot of a 100x1 loss.
Provide one or your argument is invalid.

[BigBallinStalin]

Whenever I read the title of this thread, I picture a stream of watery fecal matter trailing from two dice.

[natty dread]

Naked dice running accross a football field.

[RADAGA]

I'm also recommending that you look into improving your strategy. Rank is by no means an accurate indication of skill, but if you can't rise up to at least lieutenant with the game types you play, then there's very obviously something wrong with your strategy.

There is. The thing wrong is that I dont play triplets games pre arranged by msn so the team is rigged, waiting for deadbeats and uncoordinated noobs to fill the second team and gather points that way

If what I said is a lie, WHY no one here support the "random team distribuition" of playes on team games?

Go ahead, seach for a doubles and triplets game, you will find, 95% of the time, that you have 3 high ranks waiting for random idiots to fill their game. THATS rigging the system, fyi


SEE? THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH MY STRATEGY.. game 10104512, CC University, I just played Round 6. Up to now, I managed to conquer THREE territories, the WHOLE game. Starting on "Sorority house"

First round, a 6x3 ended 3x2 (trying womens dorm)
Secoond round, 6x2, won, advanced 4 (got it) RED card
Third round, 7x3, end 2x2 (trying mens dorm)
Fourth round, 5x2, won (losing 1 army), advanced 2 (got it) RED card
Fifth round, 5x3, won (losing 1), advanced 3 (got commons) RED card
Sixth round, 4x1, lose, lose, lose (trying the defended-by-1 Frat house) tried to win even down to 1x1 because it would secure me te HOUSING bonus, while leaving 4 armies defending commons, a reasonably good position.

Next round, round 7, if I still have a chance, I will have to burn the red set, just to grant victory on that 1 army holding frat house. I will try a 8x1, lets see how many I will lose

Total, I lost 3+5+1+1+2 = 12 armies, and killed 9

now, please, PLEASE, PLEASE tell me where this strategy is wrong, besides the whole lot of unluck?

p.s.

LAST 25 battles
Total -1% 47 51 -9% 21 26 0 0 -53% 0 3 0 0 -8% 1 2

NOTE the -9% on 3x1, I managed to LOSE more 3x1 battles fought than win, in FIFTY rolls, I know it is a BAD STRATEGY trying to attack 1 lonely army standing from a 4-or-more stacked territory. You should NEVER try a 3x1, you will lose over HALF the time.

TOTAL
Total 0% 9944 9758 -1% 3746 3762 +3% 145 97 -4% 157 190 +2% 41 17 -2% 105 111

[natty dread]

There is. The thing wrong is that I dont play triplets games pre arranged by msn so the team is rigged, waiting for deadbeats and uncoordinated noobs to fill the second team and gather points that way

First of all, that's how team games are played. If you want to do good at team games, you need to join an established team and not play with random noobs. That's not some shady trick that people use, that's how the games are supposed to be played.

Also, you don't always get random noobs as your opponents. A lot of the time, other teams are looking for open team games to join.

Go ahead, seach for a doubles and triplets game

I won't, because what you're saying is not news. I've played plenty of team games myself, and I always play with partners I know. That's just how team games are played. That's STRATEGY mixed with COMMON SENSE.

Anyway, there's no need to play team games to get to the rank of lieutenant. With proper strategy, you can get there by playing nothing but 6-8 player standard games.

SEE? THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH MY STRATEGY.. game Game 10104512, CC University, I just played Round 6. Up to now, I managed to conquer THREE territories, the WHOLE game. Starting on "Sorority house"

Yeah, I don't care. I really don't care this one game out of all the ones you played that you cherry-picked to prove your point. It doesn't matter. It's irrelevant.

Now, without seeing you play, I don't really know where exactly you're going wrong, but I can make some educated guesses based on a quick look at your games page...

#1 - you play lots of freestyle. Freestyle is something you shouldn't play at all unless you know how it works - it's a game type that has it's own strategies, you basically have to stand by at your computer pretty much 24/7 to be good at casual freestyle.

#2 - you play lots of fog games. Until you learn the strategy on the game types you play, until you learn how a certain map works, you shouldn't play it on fog - it only makes learning it harder. Furthermore, there's tons of things about fog that you need to know to be able to play it competently - you need to know how to read the game log and discern your opponents position from things like how many territs they attacked, etc. It's frankly a pain in the ass in my opinion, which is why I don't much like fog games - some people enjoy the challenge though. The MAIN POINT however is, if you're playing fog games and just guessing what you're opponents are doing, you're doing it WRONG.

#3 - don't play too aggressive. Start slow, make back-up plans, and back-up plans for those - so that if you get bad dice on one turn, it doesn't destroy your entire strategy. Don't waste all your troops by attacking random territories. Play it smart. Think ahead of the next turn, like in chess... try to predict what your opponent will do and plan accordingly - again, like in chess.

#4 - stay away from 3-player games. Those are pretty much in a mexican stand-off from the start.

[canadian bacon]

First round, a 6x3 ended 3x2 (trying womens dorm)
Secoond round, 6x2, won, advanced 4 (got it) RED card
Third round, 7x3, end 2x2 (trying mens dorm)
Fourth round, 5x2, won (losing 1 army), advanced 2 (got it) RED card
Fifth round, 5x3, won (losing 1), advanced 3 (got commons) RED card
Sixth round, 4x1, lose, lose, lose (trying the defended-by-1 Frat house) tried to win even down to 1x1 because it would secure me te HOUSING bonus, while leaving 4 armies defending commons, a reasonably good position.

Next round, round 7, if I still have a chance, I will have to burn the red set, just to grant victory on that 1 army holding frat house. I will try a 8x1, lets see how many I will lose

Total, I lost 3+5+1+1+2 = 12 armies, and killed 9

all of these are win-lose.... this proves NOTHING about randomness.... post your dice or no one will take you seriously.

[nikola_milicki]

I just saw my opponent win 3vs6 clean

somebody tell me what are the odds for that to happen ?

[canadian bacon]

I just saw my opponent win 3vs6 clean

somebody tell me what are the odds for that to happen ?

pretty good actually... all you have to do is win three throws. happens all the time.