Dice probability

[musicalmaven]

so where are all the dice defenders? it's been over 2 weeks and no one has answered my simple questions. they were all so quick to respond to all the other comments.

[musicalmaven]

oh, by the way - nothing has changed over the past 2 weeks, unless getting worse is a change.
now all 6 categories of the dice analyzer are negative and over the past 25 game i am also all negatives ( -2% ; -8% and - 4%) and my opponents luck are all positive ( + 26%; + 9% and + 15%).

[Georgerx7di]

another person who fals to understand that 0,0000000000001% is not the same as 0% and 99.9999999999999999999999999% is not the same as 100%.

even tho 0,0000000000001% is unlikely to happen, it WILL happen sometimes.

Thank you. There is no better way to say this. If something is not 100%, then you don't know for sure that it will happen.

Also, rolling 3 dice against 1 die, 1 time, is 66% chance of success. The 91% is if you are willing to keep rolling after you lost the first army. In other words, the odds that you will win one of your 3 rolls (4 armies against 1) is 91%.

Going back to 9v1, each roll (Till you get down to 3 armies) is 66% chance of success. So the odds for 9v1 are 99.96%, so you will loose about 4 times in 10,000 or 1 time every 2,500 times. Unlikely, but far more likely than winning the lottery or getting struck by lighting.

I do sympathize. I had a partner in a trips game loose 13v1 on the last army of an enemy to get his cards and cash for 30. Yes, its rough during the escalating sweep as MF said. We lost.

Having said that, if we wanted a game where we could prove beyond a doubt that we are smarter than our opponents, and we did not want chance getting in the way, then chess is the way to go. That's probably why people don't play chess as much, there is no excuse when you loose, you have to admit that your opponent out played you.

[musicalmaven]

well - it is 10/14, another week has gone by and no response still.
to have an intelligent discussion, we should all be aware of the terms and definitions.
in this case - what do the figures mean and by method are they arrived at?
in my case i use a simple win lose method.
i roll the dice. my 5, 4 & 3 against the defenders 6 & 5.
i lose 2 men. i am 0 & 2.
i roll 5, 4 & 4 and the defender throws a 5 & 1 - we each lose 1, and i am 1 & 3 for the turn.
if this is method is not a solid reflect of my "luck" - please explain the reason and what a better, or the best method is (and why).
the use of attack and defense figures and a total is, to me, confusing, and more complex than is needed.
if we complain that the dice are always against us, or are too streaky, then my method seems best suited to prove or disprove the position. you get a simple count and divide the number of wins by the number of throws and you have your winning percentage. compare your winning percentage to the norm (53.9% vs. 2 defenders and 65.9% vs. 1 defender) and you know how lucky or unlucky you are.
it does not matter how often you throw a 1 or a 6 or any other number. it only matters if you win or you lose.
you also have to realize that we are talking about a very solid mathematical figure (53.9% and 65.9%), so a significant departure from the "norm" is not 1 or 2 percent. it is a lot smaller - so, if the dice analyzer only changes from 0 to -1 or +1 when the percentage exceeds the 52.9% or the 54.9% figure, then all the claims that "you are within the normal parameters" are lies.
so let's get going. let's get someone to explain the numbers and let's talk about "lousy dice".

[Robinette]

Your win rate for 3v2 is 53.69% win.
This is 99.61% of average.

Your win rate for 3v1 is 65.69% win.
This is 99.68% of average.


So 3v2 overall, for every 135 rolls, you have lost 1 man more than the statistical average.
Let me say that again... for every 135 ROLLS of 3 v 2, you are only off by ONE man every 135 ROLLS.

And for 3v1, it's every 333 rolls that you have lost 1 man more than the statistical average.
That's ONE man for every THREE HUNDRED THIRTY THREE rolls that you are off.


Your dice are so close to being perfectly random it almost looks fixed...


Carry on...

[Seulessliathan]

Perhaps we should invent a "dice complainer medal"

20 complainments about dice in gamechat, bronze
100 comp. silver
400 comp, gold

Each forum post should count for 3 gamechat notes, each new thread about dice which aren´t random gives you 10 points.

[musicalmaven]

ok robinette.
you are the only one to even respond after nearly a month.
first of all - you have not answered 1 of my questions.
second - how do you get to see my dice analyzer?
when i check anyone name all i can bring up is the dice stats - which only reflects the last 5 - 25 turns.
third - while your statement is fairly accurate (as of this writing the dice analyzer numbers are 53.73% against 2 defenders and 65.19% vs. a single defender) they are, and have always been, below average. while the 53.73% is probably close to the normal deviation, i do not believe the 65.19% is.
fourth - do you have any idea how accurate and how current the dice analyzer is?
today my record was 140 & 132 (51.47%) and 52 & 38 (57.78%).
yesterday my record was 60 & 64 (48.39%) and 40 & 39 (50.63%).
the day before that i was 84 & 76 (52,6%) and 91 & 60 (60.26%)
now tell me how my percentage against 2 defenders went up since your writing?
fifth and final - the dice analyzer reflects, as of this writing, the differential in my winning percentages as -.43% / -.78% / - 2.76% / -.08% / - 7.96% and - 1.86%. again, and still, always in the negative. can you explain how these figures square with the winning percentage of 53.73%? it seems to me the winning percentage should be a lot worse than two tenths of a point below norm.
i look forward to your response, or that of anyone else who can answer these questions as well as the ones i asked previously.

[Metsfanmax]

when i check anyone name all i can bring up is the dice stats - which only reflects the last 5 - 25 turns.

The table right under "recent dice rolls" is "overall dice rolls." That includes every roll you've done on CC since the feature was implemented. You don't need to keep track of your own (unless you don't trust the CC records). In particular, your overall dice roll record lists you as just about exactly average in all categories. That means that for every bad streak of 25 rolls you've had, you've had a corresponding abnormally good set of 25 rolls, to balance out to the average.

[Crazyirishman]

when i check anyone name all i can bring up is the dice stats - which only reflects the last 5 - 25 turns.

The table right under "recent dice rolls" is "overall dice rolls." That includes every roll you've done on CC since the feature was implemented. You don't need to keep track of your own (unless you don't trust the CC records). In particular, your overall dice roll record lists you as just about exactly average in all categories. That means that for every bad streak of 25 rolls you've had, you've had a corresponding abnormally good set of 25 rolls, to balance out to the average.

That's blasphemy.

[musicalmaven]

thanks metsfan - but all the overall dice stat gives is how many 1s, 2s 3s, etc. i've thrown.
robbinette's statement was exact percentage results of 3 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 1. you cannot get that from the dice stats - only from the dice analyzer.
and where have you been? it's been over a month since i asked my series of questions about the meaning of the numbers shown on the dice analyzer and it's time lag, and you, and the rest of your cohorts never responded.
how about some answers?

[Metsfanmax]

thanks metsfan - but all the overall dice stat gives is how many 1s, 2s 3s, etc. i've thrown.
robbinette's statement was exact percentage results of 3 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 1. you cannot get that from the dice stats - only from the dice analyzer.

Sure you can -- click on the "battle outcomes" tab on the same page. Your stats overall for 3v2, 2v1, etc. look pretty reasonable.

[nikola_milicki]

I just lost 5 straight attacking a 1 that rolled five 6s, bye bye CC very soon....

[Army of GOD]

I just lost 5 straight attacking a 1 that rolled five 6s, bye bye CC very soon....

bye, don't let your pussy hit you on the way out

[natty dread]

bye bye CC very soon....

Is that a promise?

[natty dread]

Ooh! Ooh! Everyone look at me! I lost a dice roll today and now I think CC sucks ass and I'm gonna leave and never come back! That'll teach you all you should have paid attention to me when you had the chance!

[Army of GOD]

Ooh! Ooh! Everyone look at me! I lost a dice roll today and now I think CC sucks ass and I'm gonna leave and never come back! That'll teach you all you should have paid attention to me when you had the chance!

BUT NATTY THE DICE HATE ME JUST LOOK AT MY DICE STATS I ROLLED 3 1S IN A ROW

[Robinette]

ok robinette.
you are the only one to even respond after nearly a month.
first of all - you have not answered 1 of my questions.
second - how do you get to see my dice analyzer?
when i check anyone name all i can bring up is the dice stats - which only reflects the last 5 - 25 turns.
third - while your statement is fairly accurate (as of this writing the dice analyzer numbers are 53.73% against 2 defenders and 65.19% vs. a single defender) they are, and have always been, below average. while the 53.73% is probably close to the normal deviation, i do not believe the 65.19% is.
fourth - do you have any idea how accurate and how current the dice analyzer is?
today my record was 140 & 132 (51.47%) and 52 & 38 (57.78%).
yesterday my record was 60 & 64 (48.39%) and 40 & 39 (50.63%).
the day before that i was 84 & 76 (52,6%) and 91 & 60 (60.26%)
now tell me how my percentage against 2 defenders went up since your writing?
fifth and final - the dice analyzer reflects, as of this writing, the differential in my winning percentages as -.43% / -.78% / - 2.76% / -.08% / - 7.96% and - 1.86%. again, and still, always in the negative. can you explain how these figures square with the winning percentage of 53.73%? it seems to me the winning percentage should be a lot worse than two tenths of a point below norm.
i look forward to your response, or that of anyone else who can answer these questions as well as the ones i asked previously.

*sigh*

You are asking for way too much analysis.
Bottom line, your dice results are normal, so try not to do what sooooo many people here do...

1) they hyper-focus on the delta of percentage results from the statistical average.
2) they throw a hissie-fit when the dice give a sour streak.

In summary, on any given dice attack, you will most commonly win 1, lose 1 (assuming 3v2 dice)
And about a third of the time you will lose 2, and about the same amount of win 2's will happen.

So, what does it all mean?

When you decide to launch an attack, ideally have many extra men to offset the fact that you have a roughly 1 in 3 chance of being dice raped on any given roll...

Let me say that again... on any given roll, you have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of being screwed...
and if you are screwed on the 1st roll, you STILL have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of being screwed AGAIN...
and if you are screwed on the 1st AND 2nd roll, you STILL have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of being screwed YET AGAIN...

The odds NEVER CHANGE... but the results are almost always different

Once you understand this, then you can adjust your strategy accordingly...
and that is what will give you an advantage over most of your opponents.

[natty dread]

[AndyDufresne]

Perhaps we should invent a "dice complainer medal"

20 complainments about dice in gamechat, bronze
100 comp. silver
400 comp, gold

Each forum post should count for 3 gamechat notes, each new thread about dice which aren´t random gives you 10 points.

Thinking about inventing, we should have one those 'random insult generators' that is around the web, but instead of generating insults it generates dice complaints. And there is only 1 dice complaint. And it isn't random.


--Andy

[nikola_milicki]

17 managed to kill only four 1s!! f*ck ur dice and f*ck all u idiots who think dice are fine!