Battle of the Bulge - CLOSED

[DoomYoshi]

Oh yea, Vote new guy. For being mafia (case presented yesterday).

I have a feeling Rodion and pmc are allied here although it is just a vague possibility.
Let me explain:
After night scene is posted, pmc still has comments: why? If not to look towny?
Also, pmc was vote stolen, I know that politicians often target other mafia members early on to make it look as if they are townspeople
Since Rodion, on his analysis of the vote-stealing debacle, didn't raise that point, he is sweeping the option under the rug (which, yes, is ironic that I am accusing someone else of this).

So, not a great case, primarily conjecture. And no, I am not looking forward to taking on pmc and Rodion today in a battle of wits. Right now I need to reread Rodion's few posts to see what exactly happened.

[DoomYoshi]

Ok, I misread Rodion's post from earlier. Take him out of my 3-way. Pmc is still my number 2 target.

[safariguy5]

Hmm...flavor on the SK kill sounds like some sort of medical sciency thing. Megele perhaps?

I suppose with a lot of VT's, it protects the power roles, although we've not gotten much progress IMHO. At least meat shields are doing a good job being meat shields.

[Ragian]

That's three townies, one survivor, and one mafia down.

Luckily, as someone pointed out, all power roles appear to be safe. I wonder if it's strange that jak is still alive The reasons seems to be that someone is looking after him one way or the other. Or, of course, that he's scum (not that I think so, though).

@PMC, why did it make sense for jak to protect saf in your opinion?

[jak111]

Well hopefully someone decides their info is worthy enough to bring forward because we don't seem to have many power roles in the game, or we've just been getting lucky.

I'm surprised mafia haven't decided to bring me down yet, but as the numbers thin my role will be of more use. As for them letting me survive this long, today is the final day we have to find Hitler to get through a night unharmed. So I'd enjoy it if everyone put their heads together and not just vote for an inactive today.

Like I've stated yesterday, my gut feeling on Chap was wrong, so I will not be pushing for my cases today.

However, I'll post the reasons I've protected who I have so far.

N1-Leehar- Because he has been quiet and usually the mafia try to pick off the quiet ones to pin it on others later on.
N2-Saf- Simply because he was trying to make a huge case on me the other day for not reveling my night actions, so if mafia decided "Hey, let's kill Saf and get the doc lynched through some wifom" or something close to that, I'd have him covered.

If a tracker wasted their ability on me simply because of what Saf has posted, i'm going to back hand you sooo hard... <.< We have barely any power roles it seems so if you're a power role, PUT IT TO USE.

Fastposted by Ragian Correction, FOUR townies, one survivor, and one mafia. Also with flavor, it seems we have a SK. So I am assuming 1 SK and with the amount of VT's popping up (unless we have some fake claims which wouldn't surprise me) we have 18 players, 2 are third party (survivor, and SK), leaving us with 16 players, so somewhere between 3-4 is a safe bet. One is down so 2-3 are left with 12 players left in the game.

To simplify:
12 players left in the game.
~1 is SK
~2-3 are Mafia
~Which leaves us with 8-9 townies!

(Posting claims to date later tonight).

[DoomYoshi]

Leehar was a bad bet. Mafia usually go for more experienced, active players and not quiet ones. The kills so far have not made sense to me though.

[Ragian]

Oh right ... forgot chap

[new guy1]

Hello everybody, I just wanted to let you all know that I have read all of Day 3 so far, I have nothing else to add and think that saf's guess of Megele is a good assumtion as an SK as he is rather notorious for demented experiments and such and so have nothing to add on that point, and then I will have to go refresh my memory later when I have time as to Doom's case on me. Sorry I have nothing to add at this time and hopefully the next time I report in I will have a defense that suits doom's liking and some more to add.

[shieldgenerator7]

Hello everybody, I just wanted to let you all know that I have read all of Day 3 so far, I have nothing else to add and think that saf's guess of Megele is a good assumtion as an SK as he is rather notorious for demented experiments and such and so have nothing to add on that point, and then I will have to go refresh my memory later when I have time as to Doom's case on me. Sorry I have nothing to add at this time and hopefully the next time I report in I will have a defense that suits doom's liking and some more to add.

Really now? What happened to this?

I just had a post but got fastposted by ghost, so I guess it will be saved till tomorrow.

Just busy?

[Rodion]

The kills so far have not made sense to me though.

I'm having a hard time understanding them as well. Well, I get why / was killed, but the 3 others murk things up. Disregarding flavour, Dazza's kill looks like a SK's job while Chuck's could have been done by either a SK or a vig. Enter flavour and we are led to believe Chuck was killed by a SK and Dazza by a vig? But how do we explain the vig firing N1 and not N2 (if he had the guts to fire N1 when there was little evidence out there, why would he refrain from N2 firing)? And why didn't the SK dissect anyone N1?
I still don't think the vig killed Dazza, but that would force me to believe we have a JOAT that opened the game with a kill instead of an investigation (bad JOAT play). Add to that the fact that Ragian is the only JOAT who could have fired at Dazza and he played in Power Role Draft Mafia, where it was sort of established that town JOATs should not kill before investigating.
And why would mafia kill DJ of all people?

By my count, so far we have 12 players with 2 claims and 3 softclaims. I don't see New Guy's reaction to PMC not having his vote tallied indicative of him being mafia like Yoshi makes it out clear to be. The fact Yoshi made a last minute request for the vig to target New Guy strikes me as extremely scummy. Added to voting the doctor yesterday, he gets the nod on my scummy list.

Vote Yoshi.

Fastposted by Shield: good catch! New Guy?

[pmchugh]

After night scene is posted, pmc still has comments: why? If not to look towny?
Also, pmc was vote stolen, I know that politicians often target other mafia members early on to make it look as if they are townspeople

How does posting after the night scene make me look townie? I felt like commenting so I did, it literally makes no difference one way or the other and has nothing to do with my role.

The vote stealing thing is a fair point that has to be raised but is entirely WIFOM. It does not clear or implicate me and trying to second guess who the mafia would pick is a dangerous game to play.

@PMC, why did it make sense for jak to protect saf in your opinion?

He would be a safe target for the mafia (being a slightly suspicious claimed VT) and he is also experienced.

FASTPOSTED.

[new guy1]

Lemme see if I have it in my notes, I completly forgot about that, if I cant find it then I will check the posts around it to check if anything makes me remember. Be back with that info in a sec!

[new guy1]

Im getting a vibe that it was something about the vote stealing issue (me being it that is). I have to address that anyways and will continue to look for the words I was going to speak regaurdless just cause now I need to figure out what it was (to appease myself ) and say I am not a vote stealer nor politician nor doublevoter nor anything that means I take a vote and use it or start with two votes. Now to search for the post again, sorry for the double post.

[chapcrap]

Oh right ... forgot chap

Already?!

[shieldgenerator7]

Oh right ... forgot chap

Already?!

Don't worry, jak remembered you so you're not forgotten

haha NG1 youtrying to say you're the politician? or are you trying to say you're not?

[new guy1]

"and say I am not a vote stealer nor politician nor doublevoter nor anything that means I take a vote and use it or start with two votes."
Did you notice the "I am not a" part? haha.

[shieldgenerator7]

"and say I am not a vote stealer nor politician nor doublevoter nor anything that means I take a vote and use it or start with two votes."
Did you notice the "I am not a" part? haha.

sorry I got lost in the maze of "and"s and "or"s so I didn't quite get to the "not" part. Ok, still waiting on your next *epic* post

[jak111]

Okay, let me know if there were any other claims, but I believe the only LIVING claims are..

Jak ~ Town Doctor
Saf ~ VT

(I feel like I'm missing a few, but I keep mixing up the claims in Matrix, and here).

So with that said, going back to my original post of the day.

With 12 players alive, 2 claimed townies (one VT, one doc), that leaves us with 10. Now let's just ASSUME for this counts sake for now that both claimed townies are town. That would leave us with 10 unclaimed people.
1 would be a SK
2-3 are mafia
6-7 are town

But seriously, are there claims I'm missing before I start trying to weed through the cleared claims and working out the probabilities?

[Rodion]

Actual claims, no, but I count 3 softclaims.

[DoomYoshi]

Am I the only one who thinks that the statement "I don't know if you are allowed to reveal that" can only come from someone who knows there is a vote stealer? Can anyone find a single example of that question in any game without a vote stealer? I can find plenty of examples of missed votes that don't have that totally awkward question there.

The fact that Rodion denies it and then twists a case on me out of nothing adds him back to the list. Pmc, yes it is WIFOM. I just want others to know so the few power roles we have can direct actions.

If you didn't know there was a vote stealer you would look at that question of new guys and think: "that is the weirdest question I have ever seen". (which is exactly what I did, and I reread the post and preceding posts a few times). Then, when it was revealed that there was a vote stealer it made sense.

Also, this seems like the mafia conferred and made new guy 'forgot' his defense knowing I would blow holes in it.

[new guy1]

Im sorry. I just wanted to make sure and I had to make sure that all options were up. Would if have made a difference if I had just said "Where is PMC's vote?"? As far as Im concerned I just thought outside the box and asked if there was a vote stealer, as if I didnt then he would have just said "all votes are correct" and we would have figured it out ourselves. Dont you think?

[jak111]

Hmm, well I need hard claims with probabilities. Soft claims are too vague to predict what will happen. If a power role wants to come forward and give his information he knows he has a claimed doc to count on, or if two people want to put in a 50/50 chance and both claim their information, I protect one and hopefully it's the right one. If two roles stepped forward it's lower the unclaimed to 8 people, if you count Saf because you don't clear him, or you don't because you do.
If you cleared Saf in your head we would have about a 1/4 - 3/8 chance of taking out scum today
If you don't we'd have a 2/9 - 1/3 chance of taking out scum today.

Depending on the information brought forward we can increase our odds even more! But I leave this up to the power roles out there. Just know that with 6-7 unclaimed town left.. we have a chance to lose power roles now. So whatever your decision is, time is running short for your information to be public and still be protected for tonight at least.

Fasposted x1

[DoomYoshi]

Im sorry. I just wanted to make sure and I had to make sure that all options were up. Would if have made a difference if I had just said "Where is PMC's vote?"? As far as Im concerned I just thought outside the box and asked if there was a vote stealer, as if I didnt then he would have just said "all votes are correct" and we would have figured it out ourselves. Dont you think?

What would cause you to think there is a vote stealer and not outright state it? Now that you bring it up, it's as if you tried to cover it up.

Second, vote stealer? I have played with them before and it still seems like the most obscure role possible. I have played with more lightning rods than politicians.

[DoomYoshi]

Third, why would you need to consider all options? It's a missed vote, they happen frequently in mafia games.

[new guy1]

Ive never played with a lightning rod and lately there have been lots of politicians in the games Ive played. Im sorry that I thought of vote stealer before screw up, but thats how it happened. If you think my thought process is scummy then Im sorry, I dont see how or why.
fastposted- Im sure they do especially since this is ghostly's first game, my post still stands.