[Official] Holiday Mafia - Game Over!

[Iron Butterfly]

....Or MoB is lying. Gosh ya think that could be an option??

[MoB Deadly]

Mets are u kidding me?

I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.

Okay this is a possibility, can you give me one reason why I would lie given this game so far?

....Or MoB is lying. Gosh ya think that could be an option??

[MoB Deadly]

And I was the first person to say I slipped on a deck of cards. I would be confirmed if Gustaf could confirm it

[Metsfanmax]

Mets are u kidding me?

I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.

You both contend that you were roleblocked. Since betiko allegedly sent his gift to you, that means one of you is lying.

[Little Witt]

Honestly now that PCM confirmed that a player can not change sides and that Gustaf told us he found a mafia, I find it much more believeable and in towns favor to lynch IB. If IB filps town by some weird reason than either 1. Gustaf got bussed. 2. Gustaf is lying and is really mafia but trying to get a town lynched. I doubt 2. but it is still there.

Vote IB

And Betiko your posts seem to be intentionally misleading and slowing this game way down and allowing a possible mafia a chance to escape and lynch. Your roll seems town, but your posts seem too scummy in a way if any of you know what I mean.

[MoB Deadly]

1 more time

If IB is the gift stealer, then Betko or Mets is most likely Mafia Roleblocker, and animaniacs is clear.

If IB is NOT gift stealer, then Betiko, Mets, and animaniacs are on the list to be a gift stealer. With emphasis on animaniacs.

[pancakemix]

Vote Count

IB - 4 (Gustaf, MoB, Witt, Mets)
Mets - 1 (betiko)
MoB - 1 (IB)
Gustaf - 1 (ani)

9 alive 5 to lynch. Deadline is March 16.

[betiko]

i'll have to reread as i haven't been much around this week end, but what PCM said is at the same time a very good news and something that blurs the game for me.
we know that scums did not and will never be able to recruit, we are not at lylo for sure and if we misslynch we don't lose.

Mob, you are either lying or missinterpretating your night 1 pm. why would you receive some fancy stuff instead of being told you've been roleblocked? my PMs from PCM are never fancy, they go straight to the point.

[MoB Deadly]

I am not going to debate it with you, Gustaf should be able to confirm what I said. If he says he didn't get it you can lynch me for lying

[MoB Deadly]

......bump?

[betiko]

you don't want to argue with me! lol

I don't know where things are going in this game to tell the truth, too much wifom in the last couple of pages. i just hope I was wrong and IB is in fact scum. we'll learn things either way.

[Metsfanmax]

This is going pretty slowly, and it's not clear we'll garner anything useful in the next couple of days, so can we just speed it up and have someone switch their vote to IB?

[anamainiacks]

Sorry, I've been really busy!

Well in the light of PCM's post about switching factions not being possible, unvote.

Could I ask betiko though, why do you still insist on voting for Mets?

[betiko]

Sorry, I've been really busy!

Well in the light of PCM's post about switching factions not being possible, unvote.

Could I ask betiko though, why do you still insist on voting for Mets?

well even in the light of pcm's post there's still a few things that make me frown on his case:

-the biggest being the chuck claim.
Chuck has saved me from a lynch, with a direct benefit of appearing town, at least to me. As you guys are not in my shoes and are unsure of my faction, I know this argument won't mean much, but here is the rest of my reasoning. After gaining such credit in my eyes for saving me on day 3, he gave his reason by telling he was a diviner and that he had checked me out and I was telling the truth. More brownie points for him. Then, he cleared also edoc (who, as I had already said was completely cleared for me) so even more brownie points. What seems like the most logical move in that case after gaining so many brownie points? give some slack to a scummate. So he gives met's rolename. His game was to give enough evidence that he was telling the truth, so I think that if I were scum I would have used that to missguide town on something. I am not sure scum were fully prepared for a massclaim on day 4, and chuck telling 100% the truth would be a wifom masterplay.
Also, the night he supposedly checked mets out he was in fact performing the NK. So when would chuck perform the diviner check?
N1, there was a kill (not done by chuck but by another scum), a roleblock (me or mob), and most possibly a diviner check (no gift stealing as far as we know). Also Jonty was chosen because he clearly softclaimed a power role.
N2 there was a gift stealing (me), a roleblock (gustaf) and a kill on kanin (unknown scum attacker), so no divining that night. Why did they chose kanin? I don't know, but it's very possible that they used their N1 diviner result to chose him; if they had divined mets it would've sounded pretty much like a PR character.
N3 there was a gift stealing (mob), a roleblock (gustaf) and a kill on NOS (performed by chuck). Chuck is supposed to have checked mets that night, which we know is a lie. He could still have met's nameclaim from night 1, but why chose kanin instead of mets night 2?
N4, they are down to 2 scums; no gift stealing, no NK and a roleblock (me). Of course there is a chance that met's story is true. They didn't roleblock gustaf because they were going to kill him. But with a doc around, is that wise? Mets was going to doc witt or gustaf for sure if what he says is true, so did they really go for a 50% odds of success knowing how bad it would look if they failed and gustaf came in with a result? The gift stealer had most likely 4+ presents last night; 2+ for sure. If they didn't perform a successfull NK I still think it's because they used a gift action (normal or christmas magic) and the roleblock, and that if they blocked me rather than gustaf, it's because they were almost sure gustaf would've investigated me and came up with a guilty result. This would've got me lynched and most likely gustaf lynched on day 6.

-th other thing about mets is the list of his night actions.
He really claimed them little by little like someone inventing them on the go. "oh, i've sent a N1 gift to someone already dead". There is absolutely no logical explanation not to give the name straight away and wait to be asked other than gaining time.
"I've sent my night 2 gift to betiko". Precisely the night I got stolen, and knowing how suspicious he had been regarding myself day 1 & 2. When I claimed that I had been stolen day 3 (on night 2), he was arguing about me "inventing" again the gift stealing mechanics. I can understand that as he hadn't claimed, he wouldn't want to reveal his gifting ability. But as he is supposed to be both gifter and doc; wasn't that a great way to draw attention out from scum? being seen as a regular gifter, and actually not lying to town by telling so. In all his suspicions about me on day 3, there is not a hint of someone who finds it very convenient that I got stolen the night he decided not to protect a claimed cop in order to send a gift to his most suspected player.
And last, the doc is a great fakeclaim for a mafia. You can't tell town who you are going to protect tonight because you don't want scum to know. So you can basically have "protected" anybody on the next day that isn't dead. Also, why would there be a gifter+doc role? I have just read hermey the elf's bio, and I have to say it could work flavourwise though...

Anyway, after reading all my arguments, you will find out that there is a slight chance that he is telling the truth, and that is only if chuck checked him night 1, and in spite of his character name, who is the hero of a christmas special and a dentist, they decided to kill kanin instead for unknwon reasons.

[Gustaf Wasa]

I come back from a weekend of skiing, and I see that the discussion has only improved slightly.

Amazing to see betiko's defense of his scum buddy IB, that I must be scum. But I guess when he keeps posting and posting around the clock, people don't want to be dragged into a debate with the guy.

Betiko has apologized for his outburst, so I don't think anything further chastising is necessary. I will say there's no need to discuss egos or nationalities or anything of the like, so please keep it clean from here on. It's just a game.

Well said, mod. When he resorts to insulting me even for which country I come from, you know he's just grasping for anything.

oh and vote mets this has lasted long enough. lynch me first if you want but just lynch him next once you see I've been saying the truth all along, can't believe I've caught him on his first post and no one is ever following my lead. 1 town for 1 scum, I'll take it.

Seriously? We have a cop saying that he landed a mafia member with his investigation, and you want to vote me? I think you're scum for sure but even I know that I'd rather go with hard evidence (even on the off chance that this (temporary) insanity theory is correct) than conjecture.

He is doing anything he can to save his scum buddy IB. Just like IB stalled the lynch by saying that "Don't lynch me yet, I was given a day action" to give betiko more time to stall. (Then later changing that to "I thought you could use gifts during the day." Yet he specifically said he was given a day action, not gifts that could be used for actions both day and night.)

PCM has just confirmed that you can change a player s faction there. I bet you we have 3 scums again so 5-1-3 and this could be lylo right now. Gustaf has turned scum.

This was betiko's next argument for saving his scum buddy Iron Butterfly. And there were people who fell for it? Note how he didn't say "Gustaf COULD have turned scum", but Gustaf HAS turned scum.

And I think we should not trust anymore gustaf's results.

Remember this: we are at lylo most probably with a mafia that recruited gustaf.

"most probably"? Because I outed IB as scum through investigation, that makes me "most probably" scum?

Guys...isn't it clear betiko will just say anything, derail in any direction? And then claim it is certain.

[Gustaf Wasa]

Betiko (off the top of my head)
Why I think he is scum:
1. N1 claims to give me a present, zero reason it should not have gotten to me.
2. No confirmed actions at this point.
3. the chuck saved Betiko from impending lynch.
4. Mets voted for thechuck before Betiko did
5. Betiko used reasoning to say that it was impossible for thechuck to be a role cop AND betiko mafia at the same time. (Which is false)

--Yep, why did betiko's claimed present not reach MoB? Then he sent a present to someone who couldn't confirm it, because he got lynched the same night. Bad timing, eh?
Last night he claimed to send a present to me, and I didn't get any. (He claims he was roleblocked. Sure, the scum would roleblock the one-gifter instead of the Cop. My guess: the Mafia ran out of gifts to roleblock with.) All his gift-giving "disappears", every night. After next night he will have some other explanation for why his gift didn't get through.

--Mafia theChuck covered for betiko TWICE, first by claiming that betiko was proven town through investigation (an investigation we now know was false), and then by switching votes so that Soundman would be lynched instead of betiko. Why would a Mafia want to lynch a third party instead of a claimed gift giver? All theChuck had to do at that point was keep his vote on betiko, let him be lynched, and it would be a big win for Mafia, with no suspicion falling on theChuck as he wasn't heading that lynch.

Honestly now that PCM confirmed that a player can not change sides and that Gustaf told us he found a mafia, I find it much more believeable and in towns favor to lynch IB. If IB filps town by some weird reason than either 1. Gustaf got bussed. 2. Gustaf is lying and is really mafia but trying to get a town lynched. I doubt 2. but it is still there.

Vote IB

And Betiko your posts seem to be intentionally misleading and slowing this game way down and allowing a possible mafia a chance to escape and lynch. Your roll seems town, but your posts seem too scummy in a way if any of you know what I mean.

Well said Little Witt, except for point number two there.
But if I was Mafia and framed someone, you could just lynch me next; problem solved.

As for betiko's posts appearing scummy, there is a reason for that.

[betiko]

lol, you really think chuck, IB and I are real idiots if we were trying to save each other's asses in such an obvious way. If IB is scum, the best thing to do is to throw him under the bus for brownie points with your guilty result, but whatever, keep thinking I'm retarded

[edocsil]

If a conclusion can't be made I will hammer IB. I can't help but distrust Betiko. He is making jumps in logic and then assuming that the jump should be taken as fact. See the recruitment issues, assumptions of the scum wagon, and so on.

However, this is spot on to betiko's town META, and this has me concerned. See over-aggressiveness, hasty posts, personal attacks. He is playing as if he is certain of his accuracy, which is very typical of him as town. To temper this, there is the fact that I assume that he knows his own META as well as others do. It could be an act, but I honestly don't believe it to be so.

Anyhow, just my current thoughts on my argument, and a heads up that IB will have my vote at the end of the day.

[Metsfanmax]

-the biggest being the chuck claim.
Chuck has saved me from a lynch, with a direct benefit of appearing town, at least to me. As you guys are not in my shoes and are unsure of my faction, I know this argument won't mean much, but here is the rest of my reasoning. After gaining such credit in my eyes for saving me on day 3, he gave his reason by telling he was a diviner and that he had checked me out and I was telling the truth. More brownie points for him. Then, he cleared also edoc (who, as I had already said was completely cleared for me) so even more brownie points. What seems like the most logical move in that case after gaining so many brownie points? give some slack to a scummate. So he gives met's rolename. His game was to give enough evidence that he was telling the truth, so I think that if I were scum I would have used that to missguide town on something. I am not sure scum were fully prepared for a massclaim on day 4, and chuck telling 100% the truth would be a wifom masterplay.

1) This applies both ways. If I am town and you are scum, then chuck still did what you expected him to. So that's a wash.

2) It wouldn't be a "masterplay" to not try and clear a fellow scum. If chuck ever died (which he did), then it would immediately cast suspicion onto whoever he claimed for; and anyway, we realized the possibility of him being a mafia rolecop before we killed him off, and as soon as we had that realization, his claim was suspect.

Also, the night he supposedly checked mets out he was in fact performing the NK. So when would chuck perform the diviner check?

Reading way too much into flavor text there. Besides, chuck is mafia, which means, for example, that he had no interest in telling the truth about such things as what order he investigated people in. He could have investigated me N1 or N2 (as you admit below), and you two could have agreed to say that he did it on N3 so that you could later cast "doubt" on whether he could have done a rolecop investigation that night. But again, that explanation is only necessary if we assume the "Winter Warlock" can't both kill someone and do an investigation in a night -- and why are you assuming that again?

N4, they are down to 2 scums; no gift stealing, no NK and a roleblock (me). Of course there is a chance that met's story is true. They didn't roleblock gustaf because they were going to kill him. But with a doc around, is that wise? Mets was going to doc witt or gustaf for sure if what he says is true, so did they really go for a 50% odds of success knowing how bad it would look if they failed and gustaf came in with a result? The gift stealer had most likely 4+ presents last night; 2+ for sure. If they didn't perform a successfull NK I still think it's because they used a gift action (normal or christmas magic) and the roleblock, and that if they blocked me rather than gustaf, it's because they were almost sure gustaf would've investigated me and came up with a guilty result. This would've got me lynched and most likely gustaf lynched on day 6.

Occam's razor applies here. What's more likely: that I just doc'ed the right person and mafia made an arguably bad move (or didn't even send in a move), or that they came up with an incredibly complicated scenario to incorrectly convince people that Gustaf was insane, for the sake of earning a single lynch that they could have just used their NK to do?

Also, if we buy your theory above that chuck was a killer, maybe by lynching him the mafia no longer have an NK ability. *shrug*

[betiko]

well at some point edoc, you do have to jump to conclusions and follow your scumdar; and if you're pretty sure of something you knid of have to oversell it.

Nevertheless, I have to say that my last post about mets is disturbing me. i wrote it and just by the end I went to check hermey's bio and it all just adds up so well... It makes total sense for this character to be gifter+doc. Also we have no doc, but seems like there are often no docs in pcm's games.

http://christmas-specials.wikia.com/wiki/Hermey

I am willing to see what happens if IB dies if he turns up mafia or not, we will learn a bit more about gustaf and mets. Because IMO if he turns scum, mets is most likely cleared as he would have indeed saved gustaf from a lynch and that would explain the no NK. I know it's what is said from the start but this whole thing seems too easy.

If IB turns town I hope you guys will trust me a little more. In that case I suggest a win win scenario: vig MOB tonight or tomorrow night. He seriously can't have been both roleblocked and not received my gift night 1, and if i die before mob, you will see that I'm town, and that there is something fishy there. We have absolutely nothing to lose by viging him. There is something real fishy about him, not worth a day lynch at this point but a viging will either kill a well hidden scum or clear the benefit of the doubt with an non town no mater what.

fastposted by mets

[betiko]

Also, if we buy your theory above that chuck was a killer, maybe by lynching him the mafia no longer have an NK ability. *shrug*

I've decided to cut you some slack because there is nothing that proves that your story is untrue. If it's a fakeclaim, it's the best one I've seen given how it all fits perfectly, the way it was told and given that there were still a few unclaimed (otherwise you can thank pcm for the great fakeclaim). Fakeclaims are usually a bit sloppy (i find rishaed's very sloppy for example)
Kind of the same thing here with me regarding nothing proven true/false, except for the roleblock on night 1 dispute with mob. I can say for fact that he cannot have both not received my gift and gotten roleblocked the same night. It's just my word against his; and viging him won't be a town loss in any case.
Also I agree that killing IB will give us a few learnings regarding 2-3 other players, so I'm fine with hammering him if that's what you guys want. My fear of lylo was wrong after PCM's clarification.

[betiko]

sorry quoted mets as it was the only thing I wanted to answer and forgot to do so before posting:

no mets; as there has been 2 mafia killers; the abominable snow monster and the winter warlock. this is not looking too deep in the scenes, these are actual facts we got from scenes. PCM is'nt writing random character names, he's writting down which character killed which character.

[Metsfanmax]

no mets; as there has been 2 mafia killers; the abominable snow monster and the winter warlock. this is not looking too deep in the scenes, these are actual facts we got from scenes. PCM is'nt writing random character names, he's writting down which character killed which character.

Yeah, realized that after I posted; I thought that warlock was the only one who been named. I don't think I'm convinced that a night kill is exclusive with an investigation, although it would make sense if it was.

[anamainiacks]

Alright, I think we've discussed all we need to, and we know what to do leading into the next day.

As much as betiko's actions have been suspicious, something about his style does strike me as being an earnest townie. Of course I could be wrong, but that's my gut feel for now.

What's more likely: that I just doc'ed the right person and mafia made an arguably bad move (or didn't even send in a move), or that they came up with an incredibly complicated scenario to incorrectly convince people that Gustaf was insane, for the sake of earning a single lynch that they could have just used their NK to do?

I've been thinking about it, and this sums up my conclusion. I can't imagine any other logical scenario, so I'm going to hammer IB. Hopefully we get scum; at the very least, we'll definitely get some information out of this. Vote Iron Butterfly.

[pancakemix]

That's a lynch. Scene tomorrow.