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Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

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Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

Postby clowncar on Sun May 25, 2014 4:58 pm

I was wondering what the odds of a 9 stack defeating a 10 stack and taking the terit is.

Thanks in advance to the math guys.
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Re: Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

Postby Gweeedo on Sun May 25, 2014 6:02 pm

Well lets see; you have to take into consideration the territory
the color of attacker, color of attacking units.
Color of the sky at the time of roll.
Which assault button will be used.
Is your attack going to be on a Monday?
The atmospheric pressure times the centrifugal force divided by the balance of the Earth.
Multiplied by the circumference of your ballz.

yes, all looks good, ATTACK!
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Re: Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

Postby clowncar on Sun May 25, 2014 7:33 pm

I just want to know the odds assuming random six sided dice.


But based on your formula the circumference alone makes it a good play for me.

But seriously, wondering the true odds of a 9 v 10 ... or a link to a chart that shows all the odds...
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Re: Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

Postby macbone on Sun May 25, 2014 8:10 pm

Assault odds calculates it at 0.35693364015590834.

Assault Odds is built into the panels, isn't it? I still use the old Assault Odds plugin found here: viewtopic.php?f=527&t=202003

The chart on this page gives different odds, though: http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/november22011/
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Re: Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

Postby Gilligan on Sun May 25, 2014 9:49 pm

macbone wrote:Assault odds calculates it at 0.35693364015590834.

Assault Odds is built into the panels, isn't it? I still use the old Assault Odds plugin found here: viewtopic.php?f=527&t=202003

The chart on this page gives different odds, though: http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/november22011/


Riskodds.com says 37.9%
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Re: Odds of winning a territory 9 v 10

Postby clowncar on Sun May 25, 2014 11:15 pm

Thank you very much. A little higher than I expected... also .. thanks for the information links.
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