[CC6] Round 5: TOFU v FALL 40-21 - TOFU Win FINAL 4/17

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:30 pm

I can confirm that Dawn of Ages is even...it went from shit they've got us to, we might have a chance, to we might have them, to shit they've got us to even...the dice are screwing with both sides huge.

donche64 · Post by **donche64** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:02 am

rockfist wrote:I can confirm that Dawn of Ages is even...it went from shit they've got us to, we might have a chance, to we might have them, to shit they've got us to even...the dice are screwing with both sides huge.

So once again Dawn of Ages is an epic fight! Hope for your nerves that this time it ends better for you!

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:46 am

If my nerves can handle walking out 600+ they can handle this

Post by **IcePack** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:35 pm

Not the start I wanted, but we'll make a push!

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:05 pm

IcePack wrote:Not the start I wanted, but we'll make a push!

Eh, it's pretty even overall. Your maps are harder to call and Poison Rome might swing FALL in the near future, you know what I'm talking about. Without any of these games, what kind of score did you expect when starting it and how many games did you expect to win in your homeset rd 1?

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:36 pm

I have us leading. I have it about 15-9 with the 7 undecided being:

Hive Doubs
FNA Quads
Stalingrad Quads
Conquer Rome Quads
Conquer Rome Trips
Spanish Armada Doubs
Dawn of Ages Doubs

Pot Mosbi Quads could flip back to Fallen with some luck
Antarctica Quads could go for us with some luck
USA2.1 could flip back to us with luck

A lot of the others are probably more solid.

Post by **IcePack** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:59 am

Extreme Ways wrote:
IcePack wrote:Not the start I wanted, but we'll make a push!

Eh, it's pretty even overall. Your maps are harder to call and Poison Rome might swing FALL in the near future, you know what I'm talking about. Without any of these games, what kind of score did you expect when starting it and how many games did you expect to win in your homeset rd 1?

Yeah, its harder cuz some of ours take longer usually. But I still have a general idea of my plan when I start war planning. I actually use a formula I developed to do some estimates on my anticipated scores. Obviously, its just an estimate used for planning / secondary info but I've found its generally pretty accurate.

Obviously, as I plan I only have half the picture (home games) and dont know the other half of the puzzle.

For this set, I had us at 16-15. I dont remember the home / away break down but I remember the total.

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:05 pm

That makes me wonder if this "magic formula" is based on who takes the first turn in a game, since the 16-15 would equal that exactly.

Post by **IcePack** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:14 pm

rockfist wrote:That makes me wonder if this "magic formula" is based on who takes the first turn in a game, since the 16-15 would equal that exactly.

No, I run it during planning phase. So it's before games start

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:33 pm

IcePack wrote:
rockfist wrote:That makes me wonder if this "magic formula" is based on who takes the first turn in a game, since the 16-15 would equal that exactly.

No, I run it during planning phase. So it's before games start

CC is rigged! Not just the dice, starting players too!

Post by **IcePack** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:38 pm

Haha if the game was rigged I think we would be doing better than 8-15 that rockfist projects :p

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:15 pm

I have it on 14-9 including tiebreaker.

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:35 pm

That was some time ago that I wrote those scores. I know someone, who knows someone, who says that one of the then undecided games is now leaning you. And you guys flipped one, and we flipped one and the odds of it happening were small in each case. I'd kill for 15-8 vs 15-10, but its not reality...it never was in my mind I had 15-9.

Post by **IcePack** » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:40 pm

I didn't look TBH I just posted what I remembered you saying a few days ago. Looks like I was 1 off of the original post. Not following the day to day changes in games (to busy w CR@W) but I did notice the Amtarctica Quads game

Post by **loutil** » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:06 pm

Certainly a lot of back and forth on Pot Mosbi. We got the early takeout for the lead. Nole responded with a 15% probability roll to complete a takeout and thrust you back into the lead. Not to be outdone, I unleashed my own 15% roll for another takeout 8-)

and swung it back to favoring us. Many of my games seem more about drop and dice rather than skill. But that is likely the result of 2 strong teams playing each other.

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:22 am

loutil wrote:Many of my games seem more about drop and dice rather than skill. But that is likely the result of 2 strong teams playing each other.

Bamboo Jack was heavily leaning TOFU very early due to grt's dice being godlike. He killed 11 with just a 5 and a 6 in round 2, with a stack of 4 surviving, which killed their chances of ever breaking the +2 we held.

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:24 pm

More games are starting to lean one way or another now (with the exception of Spanish Armada, I flipped a coin to call that) and I estimate 19-12 TOFU over all games currently played.

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:45 pm

[game]17099184[/game] has VEGAN.

Doc_Brown · Post by **Doc_Brown** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:19 pm

Extreme Ways wrote:[game]17099184[/game] has VEGAN.

I was just thinking earlier today how much I'm enjoying not seeing so many "XX has Fallen" posts in here this year!

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:39 pm

Doc_Brown wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:[game]17099184[/game] has VEGAN.

I was just thinking earlier today how much I'm enjoying not seeing so many "XX has Fallen" posts in here this year!

The one I'd like to see is "Fallen has..." but we are a long way off from that so let's focus.

Extreme Ways · Post by **Extreme Ways** » Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:46 pm

Been real silent in here, both from insiders and outsiders. So another prediction?

14-5 in confirmed games
16-7 in confirmed + decided games
18-9 in confirmed + decided + leaning games
3 even games

rockfist · Post by **rockfist** » Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:04 pm

Nothing about this war has proceeded how I expected it to. I'll lose on some of my strongest boards and win on some of my weaker ones.

Post by **IcePack** » Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:51 pm

rockfist wrote:Nothing about this war has proceeded how I expected it to.

This pretty much sums up everything I've thought so far. EW has the score pretty much accurate as far as I can tell.
This will be one of the toughest tasks we ever faced, against one of the best competitors.

Dako · Post by **Dako** » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:56 am

Bring your best game then because you can do better!

Post by **IcePack** » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:58 am

Dako wrote:Bring your best game then because you can do better!

Right now I think I'm personally sitting @ 0-5, 0%. So clearly, I can do better :lol:

[CC6] Round 5: TOFU v FALL 40-21 - TOFU Win FINAL 4/17

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