Unemployment remains near 50 year low

[GaryDenton]

US Jobless Rate Remains Near Five-Decade Low

The unemployment rate in the United States was down to 3.4 percent in April 2023, matching a 50-year low of 3.4 percent seen in January. The number of unemployed people decreased by 182 thousand to 5.657 million and employment levels rose by 139 thousand to 161.031 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6 percent.
This month unemployment remained low at 3.7 percent in May 2023, the highest since October 2022. Despite this uptick, the jobless rate remained historically low and the labor market also remained tight. The number of unemployed people increased by 440 thousand to 6.10 million and employment levels declined by 310 thousand to 160.72 million. The so-called U-6 unemployment rate, which includes people who want to work, but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, rose to 6.7 percent in May, also historically low. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6 percent, remaining at its highest level since March 2020.

[GaryDenton]

Even the WSJ - Employers added 339,000 jobs last month; unemployment rate rose to 3.7% — Hiring surged this spring, the latest sign the U.S. economy maintains momentum...

[GaryDenton]

America’s surprisingly resilient job market delivered yet another month of higher-than-expected hiring in May — adding 339,000 jobs last month.

The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate 10 times in 14 months in an aggressive drive to conquer high inflation and kill the Biden economy and inflation, which was not driven up by higher wages but by rising profit margins.

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/ ... ion-higher

[GaryDenton]

Inflation has dropped steadily from its peak of 9.1% a year ago, but remained somewhat elevated in April at 4.9%, measured year over year.

Top Fed officials have signaled that they expect to forgo a rate increase at their June 13-14 meeting.

[jusplay4fun]

The unemployment rate is not the only indicator of a healthy US Economy.

And yes, the inflation rate has slowed; otherwise, we do not understand how the Economy works and how to avoid dangers of inflation, recession, and depression. The Fed has managed to slow down inflation, thank goodness. Otherwise, we in the US and the World would be in an economic crises.

You can look at the discussion in the more general thread one economics:

Why inflation may be worse than you think it is
Postby Dukasaur on Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:49 am

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... &start=175

HitRed, I think, posted information about the M2 Money Supply (in the USA).

There is LOTS of economics discussed there in that thread that Duk started.

[GaryDenton]

The Republican Federal Reserve, always Republican, like the FBI has never had a Democratic director, has no clue, and is trying to fight inflation by throwing people out of work.
They are ignoring that the most significant driver of inflation now is not higher wages or even the money supply increase but that due to the lack of competition and more monopolies, corporations significantly increased their profit margins.

[jusplay4fun]

The Republican Federal Reserve, always Republican, like the FBI has never had a Democratic director, has no clue, and is trying to fight inflation by throwing people out of work.
They are ignoring that the most significant driver of inflation now is not higher wages or even the money supply increase but that due to the lack of competition and more monopolies, corporations significantly increased their profit margins.

sounds like typical left wing propaganda.....

Let's see, the former Chair of the Fed is Janet Yellen. What does she do NOW? Oh, she is Biden's Treasury Secretary. So, your point is....???
And who appointed her to the Fed Reserve Chair? A republican? Think again.

President Barack Obama chose her to replace Donald Kohn as vice chair of the Federal Reserve from 2010 to 2014 before nominating her to succeed Ben Bernanke as chair of the Federal Reserve three years later.

[jusplay4fun]

And now we learn:

ECONOMY
Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021

Jobless claims totaled 261,000 for the week ended June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week.
The total was well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 235,000 and was the highest weekly rate since Oct. 30, 2021.
The report comes less than a week ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/08/jobless ... -2021.html

[mookiemcgee]

Agree with JP here, Fed at this point is the least partisan organization with power in the USG (though it isn't part of the USG officially).

Though I'd also point out money supply (M2) while an important indicator of monetary policy it is not an indicator of the health of the US economy, so that was a poor example to use imo. M2 is important but but that was just a poor context for it. I also think it's funny that you blamed biden for inflation in the thread you mentioned (again based on spending approved under Trump and tax cuts approved under Trump both of which are the main reasons inflation spiked), but now that it's 'getting under control' give all the credit to the fed, and don't even mention Biden... then you accuse someone else of 'left wing propaganda'

I think it's also important to point out the fed WANT'S higher unemployment rates, this is an important piece of lower inflation and an expected result of cranking up interest rates.

[jusplay4fun]

Agree with JP here, Fed at this point is the least partisan organization with power in the USG (though it isn't part of the USG officially).

Though I'd also point out money supply (M2) while an important indicator of monetary policy it is not an indicator of the health of the US economy, so that was a poor example to use imo. M2 is important but but that was just a poor context for it. I also think it's funny that you blamed biden for inflation in the thread you mentioned (again based on spending approved under Trump and tax cuts approved under Trump both of which are the main reasons inflation spiked), but now that it's 'getting under control' give all the credit to the fed, and don't even mention Biden... then you accuse someone else of 'left wing propaganda'

I think it's also important to point out the fed WANT'S higher unemployment rates, this is an important piece of lower inflation and an expected result of cranking up interest rates.

The US Economy is very complex, and GaryD wants to focus on only ONE data set to consider. The President gets too much blame and too much credit for the Economy. I merely pointed out the M2 Money supply as another factor that someone else mentioned in the inflation thread.

I still blame Biden for inflation as he wants to SPEND and not control spending. Look at all the negotiations about the current debt agreement. I think we have good evidence that excessive federal government spending has been a major cause of this current rounds of inflation, and when Biden took office, he showed NO restraint on federal spending.

The Fed is appointed to control inflation. Its actions over the past year or so have helped control inflation. You are correctm=, Mookie: I give Biden almost NO credit for the that.

3. Conducting Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve sets U.S. monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.
VIDEO: Fed Functions: Conducting Monetary Policy

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... usinesses.

As far as the deficit spending under Trump, much of that occurred in year 4 of his Administration to avoid the Economy sliding into a recession during the COVID Lock-down. Instead of curbing that excessive spending, Biden tried to SPEND EVEN MORE and cause even MORE inflation.

I am going to post this in the inflation thread, as this thread is too narrow and does not have the huge amount discussion that was presented there. I plan to discuss Economics there.

[mookiemcgee]

As far as the deficit spending under Trump, much of that occurred in year 4 of his Administration to avoid the Economy sliding into a recession during the COVID Lock-down. Instead of curbing that excessive spending, Biden tried to SPEND EVEN MORE and cause even MORE inflation.

Nope! The idea that Trump put any effort into reducing spending OR increasing revenues is not supported by data.

Fiscal Year 2021: $1.5 trillion (tracks with first two years of non-pandemic deficit)
Fiscal Year 2020: $4.2 trillion (the bump of 2.5-3b is extra pandemic spending)
Fiscal Year 2019: $1.2 trillion - before pandemic, booming economy, a time you would expect deficits to be reduced
Fiscal Year 2018: $1.3 trillion - before pandemic, booming economy, a time you would expect deficits to be reduced

Average yoy deficit increase under Obama in 2nd term - 875 Billion
Average yoy deficit increase under Obama 1st term (financial crisis) - 1.1 trillion

Biden Fiscal year 2022 - $1.84 trillion - a 22% increase from 2021 - The 'last' pandemic spending package and only one passed under Biden ( American Rescue Plan) represented about 190b/year or roughly 10% of the debt increase in that year. The 'infrastructure' bill was only 40 billion or 2% of the entire increase, so you can keep blaming this one bill as 'crazy overspending' but that's just your perception and isn't supported by the figures. The 'Tution Debt forgiveness' plan represents even less, around 30b/year or 1.6% of the total 1.84 trillion figure. He's also passed bill that reduce the deficit like the 'Inflation reduction act' which reduces the national debt by about 10b/year.

'projected 2023' $918 billion budget deficit (lower than any year under trump, even the good years where the economy was humming and there were no 'crisis')

Now we've been talking alot about debt, which is a result of unbalanced budgets. Unbalanced budgets are a result of not balancing spending with REVENUE... Would you like to engage in a discussion of reducing the debt and balancing the budget through spending cuts AND INCREASED REVENUE?
Between 1980 and 1990 tax revenues doubled
Between 1990 and 2000 tax revenues doubled
Between 2000 and 2010 tax revenues only went up by 8%
Between 2010 and 2020 tax revenues went up about 50%

Be it through lack of growth or reducing taxes the US has simply not put enough effort into bringing cash in to pay for the spending it doesn't have the stomach (bipartisan-ly) to cut. Revenue generation HAS to be part of any responsible conversation about actually reducing debt in the US. The Trump tax bill hurt the deficit massively, yet it gets cheered on by 'fiscally conservative' people. It was the wrong legislation, at the wrong time. Had we actually moved towards reducing the debt during 2018/2019, which we were in a position to do instead of starting trade wars with our allies maybe the additional Trump pandemic spending wouldn't have rekt the debt.

[Dukasaur]

As far as the deficit spending under Trump, much of that occurred in year 4 of his Administration to avoid the Economy sliding into a recession during the COVID Lock-down. Instead of curbing that excessive spending, Biden tried to SPEND EVEN MORE and cause even MORE inflation.

Nope! The idea that Trump put any effort into reducing spending OR increasing revenues is not supported by data.

Fiscal Year 2021: $1.5 trillion (tracks with first two years of non-pandemic deficit)
Fiscal Year 2020: $4.2 trillion (the bump of 2.5-3b is extra pandemic spending)
Fiscal Year: $1.2 trillion - before pandemic, booming economy, a time you would expect deficits to be reduced
Fiscal Year: $1.3 trillion - before pandemic, booming economy, a time you would expect deficits to be reduced

Average yoy deficit increase under Obama in 2nd term - 875 Billion
Average yoy deficit increase under Obama 1st term (financial crisis) - 1.1 trillion

Biden Fiscal year 2022 - $1.84 trillion - a 22% increase from 2021 - The 'last' pandemic spending package and only one passed under Biden ( American Rescue Plan) represented about 190b/year or roughly 10% of the debt increase in that year. The 'infrastructure' bill was only 40 billion or 2% of the entire increase, so you can keep blaming this one bill as 'crazy overspending' but that's just your perception and isn't supported by the figures. The 'Tution Debt forgiveness' plan represents even less, around 30b/year or 1.6% of the total 1.84 trillion figure. He's also passed bill that reduce the deficit like the 'Inflation reduction act' which reduces the national debt by about 10b/year.

'projected 2023' $918 billion budget deficit (lower than any year under trump, even the good years where the economy was humming and there were no 'crisis')

Now we've been talking alot about debt, which is a result of unbalanced budgets. Unbalanced budgets are a result of not balancing spending with REVENUE... Would you like to engage in a discussion of reducing the debt and balancing the budget through spending cuts AND INCREASED REVENUE?
Between 1980 and 1990 tax revenues doubled
Between 1990 and 2000 tax revenues doubled
Between 2000 and 2010 tax revenues only went up by 8%
Between 2010 and 2020 tax revenues went up about 50%

Be it through lack of growth or reducing taxes the US has simply not put enough effort into bringing cash in to pay for the spending it doesn't have the stomach (bipartisan-ly) to cut. Revenue generation HAS to be part of any responsible conversation about actually reducing debt in the US. The Trump tax bill hurt the deficit massively, yet it gets cheered on by 'fiscally conservative' people. It was the wrong legislation, at the wrong time. Had we actually moved towards reducing the debt during 2018/2019, which we were in a position to do instead of starting trade wars with our allies maybe the additional Trump pandemic spending wouldn't have rekt the debt.

Exactly.

I posted about this waaay back:
Subject: The Libertarian Case Against Trump, Part 1

From time to time, there have been libertarians who have tried to claim Trump as their own. It seems absurd that the most autocratic man ever to inhabit the White House could be seen as a libertarian, but the phenomenon exists, maybe through a combination of wishful thinking and cognative dissonance.

In any case, Reason Magazine, something I used to subscribe to way back in my libertarian days, has published a fairly strong assessment of that claim.

The essay is too long to be reasonably condensed into a forum post, so I'm going to break it up into three.

https://reason.com/2020/10/04/the-case- ... of-freedom

Part One: The Trillion-Dollar Tax

The Trillion-Dollar Tax

"Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending," economist Milton Friedman famously said during the Carter administration. "Because that's the true tax."

Under Trump's signature, even before the coronavirus, the sticker price on that annual levy was jacked up by almost $1 trillion.

Federal spending under Barack Obama went from $2.98 trillion in George W. Bush's last full fiscal year of 2008 to $3.52 trillion in the stimulus-weighted fiscal year of 2009, an increase for which Obama and the Democratic-controlled 111th Congress deserve the lion's share of responsibility. Since the 44th president's last full fiscal year of 2016 saw expenditures of $3.85 trillion, we can say that during his two terms of office—which included a major federal response to an economic crisis—annual spending went up by around $900 billion.

Trump matched that increase in just one term, before his own crisis hit.

Fiscal 2017 featured spending of $3.98 trillion, with most of the $140 billion increase over the previous year coming under Trump's sharpie. Then things really took off—$4.11 trillion in 2018, $4.45 trillion in 2019, and a whopping $4.79 trillion destination at the halfway point of fiscal 2020. And then came the pandemic.

Discretionary spending—meaning that part of the budget (roughly one-third) requiring explicit congressional approval, as opposed to "mandatory" items such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—never topped $1.2 trillion during Obama's second term. Trump's wholly owned, pre-virus budgets saw the discretionary portions rise from $1.28 trillion to $1.36 trillion to $1.44 trillion.

tl:dr version: Trump profligate spending has made a mockery of Republican claims to conservatism. Lest anyone be confused, it is reiterated several times that this is not counting 2020; these are pre-pandemic numbers. In his first year alone, Trump increased spending more than Obama had increased it over his entire eight years.

P.S. Glad to see the Search function is starting to work again.

[2dimes]

It always worked. However... It can only go back to the reset.

It just seemed like it didn't work when it only searched a day, then a week, etc..

[GaryDenton]

While presidents appoint Fed Chairs they are a Republican Institution. Janet Yellen was mentioned, when she was appointed the lunatic Right yelled she would create either hyperinflation or economic malaise. Instead:

Consumer prices rose by just 1.9 percent a year during Yellen’s tenure ― and only 1.3 percent if you include fuel and food in the calculations. The overall economy, meanwhile, has grown by nearly 9 percent since Yellen took office four years ago (adjusted for that barely existent inflation), while the unemployment rate has steadily declined from 6.6 percent to 4.1 percent and the interest rate on government debt is about where it was when Yellen was confirmed. The man President Donald Trump has selected to succeed her, Jerome Powell, has stated that he plans to continue her policymaking legacy, which, of course, makes one wonder why, exactly, the president felt compelled to replace her.

Liberals did not like Obama or Biden, super Centrists, but felt they were the best alternatives with the growing insanity of the Right and their insistence on culture wars and growing fascism and their always every time they turn around more tax cuts for the rich and corporations..
We have been pleasantly surprised by Biden, but then we look at the Republicans now and fear for the country.

[mookiemcgee]

While presidents appoint Fed Chairs they are a Republican Institution. Janet Yellen was mentioned, when she was appointed the lunatic Right yelled she would create either hyperinflation or economic malaise. Instead:

Consumer prices rose by just 1.9 percent a year during Yellen’s tenure ― and only 1.3 percent if you include fuel and food in the calculations. The overall economy, meanwhile, has grown by nearly 9 percent since Yellen took office four years ago (adjusted for that barely existent inflation), while the unemployment rate has steadily declined from 6.6 percent to 4.1 percent and the interest rate on government debt is about where it was when Yellen was confirmed. The man President Donald Trump has selected to succeed her, Jerome Powell, has stated that he plans to continue her policymaking legacy, which, of course, makes one wonder why, exactly, the president felt compelled to replace her.

Liberals did not like Obama or Biden, super Centrists, but felt they were the best alternatives with the growing insanity of the Right and their insistence on culture wars and growing fascism and their always every time they turn around more tax cuts for the rich and corporations..
We have been pleasantly surprised by Biden, but then we look at the Republicans now and fear for the country.

Respectfully, this is another comment not supported by data. To the degree their is decent data on this it shows over 50% of Federal Reserve Economists have no party affiliation/ are not registered as dem or republican in voting rolls. Of those that do register and have open party affiliation it's a landslide in favor of democrats... Oh and there is one Libertarian.

Now, personally I'd expect that many of the non-affiliated are likely right leaning and just prefer to not have any public mention of their preference... but even if ALL were closet republicans it would still only leave a slight split in the rep favor. Claiming it's a republican institution is just wrong. You can claim is a kabal, a way of circumventing the will of the people in favor of a deepstate. There are a ton of very valid ways to talk shit about the Fed, but saying it's main problem is that it's run by republicans is dumb.