I'm seeing these five as the most likely for Biden to unlock; if he gets three of the five he loses, but if he gets two or less of the five he'd win.
Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
There seems to be a consensus of the U.S. entering a recession during Q1/Q2 of 2024. With the average recession lasting nine months, this would take it through the election.
Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Anything other than an almost-unprecedented spike in growth in 2024 will cause this to be false.
Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
If the situation in Ukraine goes south, Biden will be left without any major foreign policy success. If the Ukes come out on top, he'll get this one.
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Licht defines this as a scandal that mobilizes criticism of the president from his own party. With the Hur investigation continuing, and the Oversight investigation continuing, this is too soon to tell where it will land. My guess is, however, Biden will
probably be safe, but there are too many unknowns to say for certain.
No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. [a campaign where the third party candidate is expected to get 5%+ of the popular vote]
Cornel West will not be a serious contender for 5% of the popular vote, though, Manchin might if he goes No Labels.
