The Thing TOWN WINS!

[Ragian]

Okay, so let's say that we BT Traf and get an innocent (or whatever the result is). Why wouldn't The Thing convert Traf N1, then?

[Ragian]

Also, thanks, Sonic, but I wouldn't say that DDS's fixation with my name (and my testicles, it seems) would make me town. Either way, I wouldn't think that any other player was town only because the mod had a weird injoke fetish with said player's name or other.

Re: strategy
I'm prone to thinking: Who'd I least want to be The Thing? Therefore, I'd much rather BT/lynch Strike/Dega/EW. I can also completely understand if people feel similarly about me.

[SoN!c]

Okay, so let's say that we BT Traf and get an innocent (or whatever the result is). Why wouldn't The Thing convert Traf N1, then?

Yes chances are very big The Thing will do exactly that. But at least we would be in the driver's seat knowing that fact. And we only have to find the Original Thing, not the converted one's.

And about your "testies", yes i misread that as including you in the (blood) tests

Re: strategy
I'm prone to thinking: Who'd I least want to be The Thing? Therefore, I'd much rather BT/lynch Strike/Dega/EW.

That's: Strike/Dega/EW/Trafa but also Ragian and why not Pixar too.. (and that's just too many players to cover).

But a combo of that strategy and finding something "off" should get a slightly better result. Hence my vote for Traf.

Because i also did not like his answer:

I was letting time to analyse people comments on BT. I was thinking if I were the thing what would I do stay quiet and try to not be the tested one or try to be active and get someone else BT rather quickly.
It it were me I would have probably stay quiet but I feel most people in here would actually try to comment quickly on it to get a BT going asap so they dont get BT'ed D1.
There is not so much to read right now so its mostly a shot in the dark So I think I would BT EW or Votanic or maybe Strike cause I think he would played it similar to how I would so not draw to much attention.

[strike wolf]

The way I see it whoever we BT should not be Bted again until we've found the original Thing. Our BT target could definitely be converted over night. However, converted cult are always less dangerous than the original cult recruiter and by never BTing the same person twice, we should be able to speed up how quickly we can narrow down who is the original cult leader.

I'm not sure I agree on a lynch being purely random. If anything, it feels like a lynch should have a higher degree of scrutiny than the BT.

My order for BTing:

1. Extreme-I think Extreme is a good player and I also think he could be the type who may try to push a BT onto someone else to avoid having it done to him and he was the first to suggest BTing Pix.
2. Ragian-Hes probably the one I'd least like to see being The Thing here.
3. Son!c-I 1. Don't know how to read son!c yet. So would like to get a better idea on that and 2. Also see the potential for him as The Thing to be trying to direct town.
4. Charle-Newer but clever based on his play in The Tick Mafia. I would Mot want to see him as The Thing.
5. Pix-Good player and has been slightly quiet this game.
6. Votanic-Im actually leaning town at the moment with him. He seems interested and genuinely engaged but he's also the only player here I've never played mafia with before which makes his playstyle a complete wild card.

Pretty much everybody after that doesn't stick out to me yet.

[SoN!c]

The way I see it whoever we BT should not be Bted again until we've found the original Thing. Our BT target could definitely be converted over night. However, converted cult are always less dangerous than the original cult recruiter and by never BTing the same person twice, we should be able to speed up how quickly we can narrow down who is the original cult leader.

I'm not sure I agree on a lynch being purely random. If anything, it feels like a lynch should have a higher degree of scrutiny than the BT.

My order for BTing:

1. Extreme-I think Extreme is a good player and I also think he could be the type who may try to push a BT onto someone else to avoid having it done to him and he was the first to suggest BTing Pix.
2. Ragian-Hes probably the one I'd least like to see being The Thing here.
3. Son!c-I 1. Don't know how to read son!c yet. So would like to get a better idea on that and 2. Also see the potential for him as The Thing to be trying to direct town.
4. Charle-Newer but clever based on his play in The Tick Mafia. I would Mot want to see him as The Thing.
5. Pix-Good player and has been slightly quiet this game.
6. Votanic-Im actually leaning town at the moment with him. He seems interested and genuinely engaged but he's also the only player here I've never played mafia with before which makes his playstyle a complete wild card.

Pretty much everybody after that doesn't stick out to me yet.

We will only get 3 BT's at best scenario. So top 3 will do. The idea of making a list "who i least wanna see being The Thing" is not running the numbers.

Also i dont see anything wrong on EW's behavior.

We should decide who the 4 townies are (most likely) and start working our way down on the other 6.

3 BT's and 3 lynches is the most we get before we lose majority vote. And even with majority vote it will get tricky starting tomorrow..Im voting Traf for BT but it also means the chance i get lynched myself rises. But we have to lynch someone after the BT. Hoping we get some night powers is a hope. Not a certainty.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Someone getting a positive test (Not being the thing), does not mean we can trust that person for the rest of the game, just for the rest of the Day, in a Cult game is not like normal games where someone gets cleared and you can just trust them indefinitely. So that logic does not really apply here.

Not sure i town has any other kind of powers so I’m starting to feel our best chances is indeed BT and lynch d1

[SoN!c]

Someone getting a positive test (Not being the thing), does not mean we can trust that person for the rest of the game, just for the rest of the Day, in a Cult game is not like normal games where someone gets cleared and you can just trust them indefinitely. So that logic does not really apply here.

Not sure i town has any other kind of powers so I’m starting to feel our best chances is indeed BT and lynch d1

Yes that has been mentioned a few times already. But with 1 BT and 1 lynch everyday we can get 6 in total.
The BT'ed one can never be the original Thing. And we only need to find the original one.

[strike wolf]

To be clear, the game probably doesn't end until all of cult dies. Finding the recruiter is just by far the most important step in ending cult. Otherwise we're just cutting off the tail of a lizard that'll keep regenerating.

[SoN!c]

To be clear, the game probably doesn't end until all of cult dies. Finding the recruiter is just by far the most important step in ending cult. Otherwise we're just cutting off the tail of a lizard that'll keep regenerating.

With half +1 minimum needed to vote? That is mission impossible.. cant believe it.

We need 6 votes on the same target today. When its 9 vs 1 !

But tomorrow we need also 6 if we dont lynch one today (8vs2).

And when we lynch, half of 9 is 4.5 so + 1 = 5 votes needed. Same on D3 when its 5 votes needed with only 8 players left (half of 8 = 4 +1 = 5 votes needed) and 3 things...

Just No way the 5 townies will reach concensus on a Thing when 3 things are steering them in the wrong direction...

[Extreme Ways]

I'm also down to BT Strike. Just not Sonic, I'd much rather lynch than BT but I think both are wasted opportunities.

@DDS on day end without absolute majority, do we still lynch the one with the most votes or just NL? I'm playing on MafiaUniverse soon and it's all automated so I'm getting used to that now.

[SoN!c]

I'm also down to BT Strike. Just not Sonic, I'd much rather lynch than BT but I think both are wasted opportunities.

@DDS on day end without absolute majority, do we still lynch the one with the most votes or just NL? I'm playing on MafiaUniverse soon and it's all automated so I'm getting used to that now.

Happy you agree lynching me is a wasted lynch if you wanna win

It could be good for other reasons tho

Rules and posts said half + 1 on BT and lynch...and you know it wont be automated right? Okay. Im gonna behave and stay silent now for 48 hours?

[swang918]

Also agree with not lynching or BT sonic. He is so vocal I think we will be able to tell if he gets converted.

BT experienced/active player is good I think. Maybe a good combo is to BT more active, lynch less active. But that is pretty theoretical since everyone is pretty active in this one.

[DirtyDishSoap]

@DDS on day end without absolute majority, do we still lynch the one with the most votes or just NL? I'm playing on MafiaUniverse soon and it's all automated so I'm getting used to that now.

Without majority, it's a NL. But im trying to avoid the deadlines. If the pacing starts dieing out, I'll put one in.

[SoN!c]

@DDS on day end without absolute majority, do we still lynch the one with the most votes or just NL? I'm playing on MafiaUniverse soon and it's all automated so I'm getting used to that now.

Without majority, it's a NL. But im trying to avoid the deadlines. If the pacing starts dieing out, I'll put one in.

Sorry, i promised no post for 48 hours but this is mod talking..So it is a majority on D1 (half + 1) but that will shift to "most" votes from D2 right? Nice to know because otherwise we are all fucked (except the Thing) and this is not a game but a nightmare

[Votanic]

Okay, a lot to process.

A few things confused me...not really scummy, just confusing. Their confusion, my confusion, both?

Sonic said something about 4 townies and 6 others. My understanding is that we are all townies now except for 1 Thing. Maybe he meant in the future, but it didn't read that way.

Obviously, I don't have a grasp of all the insider takes on possible scumminess from particular players, though a lot of what I read seems like kidding anyway.

I would think that the Thing would keep a low profile, but all the players seem to have posted at least once. Maybe some are just more quiet (or burned-out after X games in a row).

BTW, can we ask DDS to generate a completely random Blood test? ... and later also a lynch, if necessary? I mean like he rolls a 10-side die for it.
On one hand, that takes all the fun away, but on the other hand, that is what we are basically going to do too. Only the die* will be grotesquely lop-sided.

* May I say 'dice' even if it's just one? Or is everyone going to ding me for that?

I still want to talk about the movie, but somebody said they not everybody had even seen it. (It's free online). I suppose it's not spoilers, if nobody cares...

I also watched the original 1982 Siskel & Ebert review of the Thing. I can't believe how much they both sucked and didn't 'get it'. ...and to think, those clowns were the cultural gatekeepers back in the day.

[SoN!c]

Okay, a lot to process.

A few things confused me...not really scummy, just confusing. Their confusion, my confusion, both?

Sonic said something about 4 townies and 6 others. My understanding is that we are all townies now except for 1 Thing. Maybe he meant in the future, but it didn't read that way.

Obviously, I don't have a grasp of all the insider takes on possible scumminess from particular players, though a lot of what I read seems like kidding anyway.

I would think that the Thing would keep a low profile, but all the players seem to have posted at least once. Maybe some are just more quiet (or burned-out after X games in a row).

BTW, can we ask DDS to generate a completely random Blood test? ... and later also a lynch, if necessary? I mean like he rolls a 10-side die for it.
On one hand, that takes all the fun away, but on the other hand, that is what we are basically going to do too. Only the die* will be grotesquely lop-sided.

* May I say 'dice' even if it's just one? Or is everyone going to ding me for that?

I still want to talk about the movie, but somebody said they not everybody had even seen it. (It's free online). I suppose it's not spoilers, if nobody cares...

I also watched the original 1982 Siskel & Ebert review of the Thing. I can't believe how much they both sucked and didn't 'get it'. ...and to think, those clowns were the cultural gatekeepers back in the day.

If we maximise BT and lynches we can reach 6 of those before we mathematicaly get overrun in best case scenario. 3 BT's and 3 lynches. But i would not include the last "theoretical" day in it. So 2 BT's and 2 lynches at max (guaranteed..).. unless mod wil change this to majority meaning "most" votes..

[Votanic]

If we maximise BT and lynches we can reach 6 of those before we mathematicaly get overrun in best case scenario. 3 BT's and 3 lynches. But i would not include the last "theoretical" day in it. So 2 BT's and 2 at max (guaranteed..).. unless mod wil change this to majority..

Okay, you seem to be doing real math here... Umm.
...and is this math true even if the blood-tested person can still be turned into a Thing right after being tested. Which I am pretty sure he can.
Basically, it seems like all our blood test data (datum?) gets nullified each day.
We should definitely still test, but the odds do kinda suck.

[SoN!c]

If we maximise BT and lynches we can reach 6 of those before we mathematicaly get overrun in best case scenario. 3 BT's and 3 lynches. But i would not include the last "theoretical" day in it. So 2 BT's and 2 at max (guaranteed..).. unless mod wil change this to majority..

Okay, you seem to be doing real math here... Umm.
...and is this math true even if the blood-tested person can still be turned into a Thing right after being tested. Which I am pretty sure he can.
Basically, it seems like all our blood test data (datum?) gets nullified each day.
We should definitely still test, but the odds do kinda suck.

⁹

Do the math yourselve, realise we're fucked.., and try to come with a better plan. I will follow. 100%. But the math is pretty "mission impossible" right now so im confident DDS will change it to "most" instead of majority..i hope!

[Votanic]

If we maximise BT and lynches we can reach 6 of those before we mathematicaly get overrun in best case scenario. 3 BT's and 3 lynches. But i would not include the last "theoretical" day in it. So 2 BT's and 2 at max (guaranteed..).. unless mod wil change this to majority..

Okay, you seem to be doing real math here... Umm.
...and is this math true even if the blood-tested person can still be turned into a Thing right after being tested. Which I am pretty sure he can.
Basically, it seems like all our blood test data (datum?) gets nullified each day.
We should definitely still test, but the odds do kinda suck.

⁹

Do the math yourselve, realise we're fucked.., and try to come with a better plan. I will follow. 100%. But the math is pretty "mission impossible" right now so im confident DDS will change it to "most" instead of majority..i hope!

Yes, most instead of majority will help, since not doing a blood test would be the worst move of all. ...but the bad odds still happen even with maximum blood tests and lynchings.

[DirtyDishSoap]

@DDS on day end without absolute majority, do we still lynch the one with the most votes or just NL? I'm playing on MafiaUniverse soon and it's all automated so I'm getting used to that now.

Without majority, it's a NL. But im trying to avoid the deadlines. If the pacing starts dieing out, I'll put one in.

Sorry, i promised no post for 48 hours but this is mod talking..So it is a majority on D1 (half + 1) but that will shift to "most" votes from D2 right? Nice to know because otherwise we are all fucked (except the Thing) and this is not a game but a nightmare

Not entirely sure how you drummed up that conclusion that it switches from majority to most on D2 but okay.
I'm not changing it.

[SoN!c]

@DDS Then please say we only have to kill the Original Thing?

Having to kill every converted one on majority vote + 1 is too much..

[strike wolf]

Anyone more optimistic want to weigh in? Honestly it's kind why cult games are not my favorite. Cult recruiter is an insanely strong role balanced only by how small cult is in the early game. That's especially true in a game like this where at least most of us are likely to just be vanilla townies. That said, 3 to 4 days to find any anti-town parties to avoid losing is pretty standard for a game this size and while the odds aren't great, I don't think it's the herculean task that Son!c is made it out to be.

[swang918]

I mean we are like 60% to win--one bt and one lynch, that's 2/10 = 20% chance to win on first day.

Day 2 there'll be 9 total and 2 Things. so between BT and Lynch, that's 22% chance to win on second day.

Day 3 is 8 total and 3 things. Yes when Things are more numerous it'll be easier for them to steer town wrong, but there's also a higher chance of hitting a thing with a Lynch. so I think it all evens out and we have 3/8 = 37% chance to win or at least hit a convert.

so we are at 79% chance to win from the first 3 days. Which seems way to high so my math must be wrong somewhere. But I can't figure out where and I already wrote the above and I don't want to go back and change it....

in any case seems odds are in towns favor here

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I mean we are like 60% to win--one bt and one lynch, that's 2/10 = 20% chance to win on first day.

Day 2 there'll be 9 total and 2 Things. so between BT and Lynch, that's 22% chance to win on second day.

Day 3 is 8 total and 3 things. Yes when Things are more numerous it'll be easier for them to steer town wrong, but there's also a higher chance of hitting a thing with a Lynch. so I think it all evens out and we have 3/8 = 37% chance to win or at least hit a convert.

so we are at 79% chance to win from the first 3 days. Which seems way to high so my math must be wrong somewhere. But I can't figure out where and I already wrote the above and I don't want to go back and change it....

in any case seems odds are in towns favor here

I agree with Swang I don't see it that hard tbh

[Votanic]

I mean we are like 60% to win--one bt and one lynch, that's 2/10 = 20% chance to win on first day.

Day 2 there'll be 9 total and 2 Things. so between BT and Lynch, that's 22% chance to win on second day.

Day 3 is 8 total and 3 things. Yes when Things are more numerous it'll be easier for them to steer town wrong, but there's also a higher chance of hitting a thing with a Lynch. so I think it all evens out and we have 3/8 = 37% chance to win or at least hit a convert.

so we are at 79% chance to win from the first 3 days. Which seems way to high so my math must be wrong somewhere. But I can't figure out where and I already wrote the above and I don't want to go back and change it....

in any case seems odds are in towns favor here

You added the probability for each of the three days together, but wouldn't you have to divide by 3 again... or something like that. I'm playing with the calculator on my desktop and I'm coming up with something like 0.235 chance of Town winning in the first 3 days... but I may not be doing it right either.

"Votanic trying to look smart but it's not working"...