EW's Semi-Open Matrix Madness

[Charle]

Oh well, there goes our doctor, and all we have left is the blocker King gave to whoever if he is town and did not use it yet.

Vot, could you visit someone last night or did they manage to block you?

I am happy to vote for Kong or Ragian at this stage.

[Kingm]

You are getting until https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive to decide on a lynch, to hopefully speed the game up a bit..

Wait what, when I looked at the link I was expecting like 5days or maybe a week, since you talked about speeding it up a bit, how is 2 weeks speeding it up? lol

[Votanic]

I got blocked.
Yeah, two weeks does seem a bit excessive.

[kongming3]

Okay - I need to catch up a lot here and see if there's a way to analyze things in a way we can have something to work with. Will likely do a full writeup either later today or tomorrow. I will just say before any vote on me (potentially) picks up steam, that I find this game to be one where we as town have very limited concrete information, and last time I posted I stated something that wouldn't be logical for me to do as town - that I'd effectively blindly follow the next lynch vote. I did that because it was a way to see who was quickest to pounce on me for it or enlist me for their cause, and I never had any intention of following through. Felt like we needed to introduce some extra decision making moments to gather information on scum, and that we needed a non power role town player to step forward to do that or we'd all keep our cards too close to our chest and lose automatically. Hoping I'm not judged too harshly for that, or that people at least weigh in with their opinions on everyone so we see where people stand, as well as who follows through with that and who is quick to quietly walk that back when a chance for a bandwagon occurs.

[Ragian]

Oh well, there goes our doctor, and all we have left is the blocker King gave to whoever if he is town and did not use it yet.

Vot, could you visit someone last night or did they manage to block you?

I am happy to vote for Kong or Ragian at this stage.

Why is it that you want to vote for me, Charle? I could get voting for Kong (although I'm eagerly waiting for his promised participation - he might do a Fusi-like summary and get Charle all hyped up).

[Extreme Ways]

I entered the wrong day, I wanted to keep deadlines on sunday.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive

Also yeah it's still a long time but yous are also slow af

[SoN!c]

I think that deadline is in perfect balance between moving fast and having enough time to get it right for town.

Let's face it: desperate times requires desperate challenges? If we get it wrong we are dead meat and dead meat goes onto the grill.

Also, nobody seems to face the fact we have - pretty obvious - smart scum in here.

Scum knew if they targeted Vot or Kingm the doc would have saved them so they took their chances with remaining town.

They could get lucky hitting the town but no way they could have known that (hitting the doc) for sure?

My guess is they targeted the best town remaining player so PMC was selected. That leaves a big question why they did not select Fusi?

PMC being doc also explains why he was playing the "perfect scum game". Something was off for him being vanilla..

We can vote random (our odds still winning it can be done just as well be matched by voting randomly) or make an educated guess based on latest info.

[Charle]

I have a strong feeling that the following are town:
1. Votanic
2. King
3. Sonic
4. Me

That leaves us with:
5. Strike
6. Fusi

7. Dev
8. Kong
9. Ragian

Three of the 5 are scum, which 3? At the moment Strike and Fusi seems town to me which leaves us with the bottom 3. So who shall we lynch?

[fusibaseball]

PMC is a big loss. To be completely honest, I thought he was a Vanilla and probably Charle was the Doc.

Charle's list is pretty spot-on for my thoughts as well at this stage. Our odds are good by now but if we mislynch again tomorrow will really be crunch time as it will be down to 4vs3.

[fusibaseball]

Also, in case anyone else was a little confused yesterday following all the deduction of the roles going on, I checked the matrix again this AM since Doc has been revealed and we are 100% playing on row 2 which means:

Town had 12 players originally, with 9 Vanilla and 3 PRs.
1) 3-shot tracker -> all 3 applications have been used by Vot
2) Inventor (1x track, 1x roleblock) -> both inventions have been handed out by King
3) Odd night doc -> recently deceased PMC, RIP

So Town is now effectively down to 6 Vanilla with no abilities available.

--------------------------------

Scum has 3 players, with 2 PRs.
1) Roleblocker -> very much active and blocking every night, as Vot was just blocked
2) 2-shot watcher -> unknown amount of uses left

[SoN!c]

I have a strong feeling that the following are town:
1. Votanic
2. King
3. Sonic
4. Me

That leaves us with:
5. Strike
6. Fusi

7. Dev
8. Kong
9. Ragian

Three of the 5 are scum, which 3? At the moment Strike and Fusi seems town to me which leaves us with the bottom 3. So who shall we lynch?

If you do not include yourself on that list then we have only 6 remaining players that could be scum, and 3 of them are, that is 50%.

It could be anybody. All we know it's smart scum but with daychat available one real good player taking lead is enough.

So:

1: Charle: having too much fun in here to be town, sorry Charle i believe in 60% odss you will flip scum for that reason alone
2. Strike: could be playing a hell of a scum game. To me it's 50-50 odds with a tendency towards town
3. Fusi: could be scum, especially since scum killed PMC and not him. 50-50 odss with a tendency towards scum just for that. In short: i agree 100% with everything Fusi said and it's helping town a lot but it could be super scum play.
4. Dev: i don't see a scum Dev with daychat, he seemed on his own, a bit lost and the way he played it ever since but you never know: 40ish
5. Kong: back active at just the right moment. 50-50 odds. Could be a rather bad playing scummie or could be an AWOL townie.
6. Ragian: something is off with Ragian but it could be the festivals as he claims: 50-50 odds with a tendency towards scum. But he could be our best remaining townie too.

There is just no evidence or reason for any possibility to be more probable than another.

And we have to hit scum 3 times in a row and that's about 5% chance we get it right on random. If we mislynch today then tomorrow there will be just 4 townies left with 3 scum still active. That would be last day with possible majority.

And - as Fusi points out Town is now effectively down to 6 Vanilla with no abilities available - which means that scum will kill one of the known townies (no counterclaim) Vot or King tonight.

So let's play the game and let's get that random win percentage a bit higher with what we know. We know Scum is very smart in this game.

Going for PMC was a very well played strategy.

Im saying Charle or Fusi - the two most townish looking players we have

[Votanic]

So Town is now effectively down to 6 Vanilla with no abilities available.

No accident there, this is totally by (game) design.
Remember, EW even made a rule that any useful Town PRs left at endgame are deactivated anyway. ...Nice.

Just remember Scum, lying like this with every advantage and few checks and balances is such an easy win.
So a t least keep the volume down on your 'We're so clever' post-game brags or I will vomit all over them.

Btw, Fusi, ...in case you forgot ...or are pretending you forgot ...or already know the truth.
There is still the possibility that town just might have one invention PR left, ...though a longshot at being much use at this point anyway.
That is if
1. It wasn't used last night.
and 2. The player who got it isn't actually scum,

[Votanic]

Anyway...

Let's try shining a light on another sus player that has been mostly skulking, except for occasional special guest appearances.
Vote strikewolf.

[SoN!c]

Anyway...

Let's try shining a light on another sus player that has been mostly skulking, except for occasional special guest appearances.
Vote strikewolf.

I think Strike is - together with Dev and Kong- the MIA town trio but it could have been the strategy for sure.

Yes Strike, Kong and Dev MIA town means Charle, Fusi and Ragian scum and that is exactly what im thinking. But there is no good reason for any possibility to be more probable than another, it's just a feeling .

It's 50 - 50 anyways and if Strike, Kong and Dev win it with the AWOL/MIA strategy that would be harder to swallow then Charle, Ragian, Fusi winning active.

Vote strikewolf

[Charle]

Btw, Fusi, ...in case you forgot ...or are pretending you forgot ...or already know the truth.
There is still the possibility that town just might have one invention PR left, ...though a longshot at being much use at this point anyway.
That is if
1. It wasn't used last night.
and 2. The player who got it isn't actually scum,

I was just going to mention that, there is still a chance that we have the invention and only you and King knows who has it.

FP by Sonic

[Kingm]

Vote strikewolf

[Kingm]

I was just going to mention that, there is still a chance that we have the invention and only you and King knows who has it.

I'm starting to think I maybe gave it away to scum.
I wanted them given out ASAP, incase I was killed, and I was right with LC, but that was easy, my 2.choice was harder, but at that time I felt that that player was the most townish player we had, but I'm not so sure anymore.

[Charle]

Strike, you are at L-2, obviously you would claim vanilla town but I would really like to hear your side before I cast my vote.

[kongming3]

I can wait to vote, but I will just say that as I am not scum, I can rule out the possibility of a trio involving me and strike - I can also prove that here by voting him out.

[Extreme Ways]

Strike wolf: 3 - Votanic, Sonic, Kingm

[Votanic]

Strike wolf: 3 - Votanic, Sonic, Kingm

Yeah, let's not add anymore right now.
My vote was/is meant to poke and prod, ...but the evidence is only circumstantial.
Basically it boils down to strike wolf being significantly less active than I recall from other games.

Semi-objectively speaking, there are other players that seem more overtly scummish, ...or maybe just bad-townish. Alas, the endless debate...

[SoN!c]

If we are waiting for Strike to show up we could be waiting in here for 2 weeks. He has zero active games so he does not need to check in daily to take his turns. Fits the town MIA profile in my book.

Unvoting for now.

[Charle]

If we are waiting for Strike to show up we could be waiting in here for 2 weeks. He has zero active games so he does not need to check in daily to take his turns. Fits the town MIA profile in my book.

Unvoting for now.

Sonic, should'nt you do that in bold red? I am asking for a friend

[Extreme Ways]

I did in fact not see that as an unvote (and it's too far from vote etiquette to see it as an unvote rn)

[SoN!c]

If we are waiting for Strike to show up we could be waiting in here for 2 weeks. He has zero active games so he does not need to check in daily to take his turns. Fits the town MIA profile in my book.

Unvoting for now.

Sonic, should'nt you do that in bold red? I am asking for a friend

Yes i should Charle. No luck on 3 scummies hammering on a technicality

Since today is the last day we have a shot cracking this though nut shouldnt we ask King who he gave the invention to and ask that person what he did with it? I mean he should have used it last night anyways as today is the day.