Friends & Enemies & Enemies & That Other Guy - Wolves Won

[Loose Canon]

Lets state the facts we can agree on:

6 Players Remaining made up of
1 Werewolf
1 Mafia
2 Town Masons
2 Town Vanilla

2 Masons each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting for scum.
2 Vanilla town each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting scum (masons would declare if in danger of being lynched)
2 Scum each have a 1 in 3 chance if sticking a pin of voting rival scum (masons declare if in danger)


EW + X killed Devante and Traf
Traf + Y killed Strike + EW

IF we keep these facts in mind at all times we may be able to Deduce who X and Y are most likely to be, D3.

Does anyone want to disagree with the above framework?

[Loose Canon]

Up to speed now (ignored a fair few of Son!c's "I know everything about Denmark and bananas" posts because imagined knowledge gets on my tits).

Claim
I'm nothing more than a Vanilla Townie. Luckily, that makes me expendable and I can still win if the rest of town gets its shit together. This post will also contain my scummy to chummy list, so feel free to lynch me afterwards.

Going for Devante, not going for Max

In my opinion, Devante was the most scummy D1, which I stated several times. Moreover, as stated a fair few times, I could see no long term benefit of voting for Max (unless, of course, he was scum, but it felt like guessing more than actual detective work).

Spoiler

[quote="Ragian"]I find it weird that some people are gunning for Max when others don't contribute either. In my head that indicates that they want to drive attention away from other non-contributors and have an easy lynch of Max. Another reason I don't like lynching almost-non-contributors is that the benefit of the lynch - or the info from the lynch - is more or less non-existing. We need to lynch someone who has actively pointed her or his fingers in order to get information for the long run. I want to [color=#FF0000][b]vote Devante[/b][/color] because of his vote on Strike that didn't sit well with me: [quote="Devante"]Last time we joked about him being a wolf and he turned out to be scum so why not. He should really ask for a name change [b][color=#FF0000]VOTE STRIKE[/color][/b] I'm for a D1 lynch personally. Seems to be the only way town can get lucky other then waiting to be killed off

He's adding a third vote to two joke votes, and only six votes are needed. He seems to want his vote to come off as a joke vote, too, but then again he seems to want the vote to count. A tiny bit later, he misreads my lame comment about Votanic (or he skipped the parenthesis), which indicates that he's skimming. That's more than I usually get to play with D1.[/quote][/spoiler]
Afterwards, he went for me in a very OMGUS kind of faction, but without the courage of the vote.

It might be that the other scum team thought that I was actually on to something since they killed off Devante. But most likely it was just a stab at someone random.

More Max

Rag, it also has occurred to me that you have targetted Max as a vote you can buy off of you later in the game?

Ugh...I don't understand this question. Are you asking if you can buy my vote later to vote Max? No, you can't, but you can persuade me if he acts scummily or out of character. I haven't seen that yet.

The "odd" switch late D1
I can't offer a better explanation that I do prefer a lynch D1, but I need to be behind that lynch. I don't want to lynch indiscriminately or without anything that at least feels like evidence. Seeing that no one wanted to go for Devante, I changed my vote. I also find it odd that I get heat for not changing my vote from Devante until I change my vote and then that's wrong too. What's a girl gotta do to be left alone here?

Loose interrogation

And in fact Rag just looking back now at the last game, you and Max were 2 of the initial 3 and had stuck at the end on the D1 mislynch of DDS.
You weren't shy of a no evidence lynch then.
So yep the more I think about it there is a definite case that as scum you see Max as a player you can draw into your pocket.

This is absolutely untrue, Captain Hindsight! DDS played with his di...beer in his hand that entire D1 by straying from his M.O. until it was noticed after which he changed his tune. He made it VERY easy to mislynch him. This game is different in that I'm not scum.

If anyone is counting, I'm not as annoyed with Loose now as I was immediately after the torrent of questions. Loose, to me at least, feels like genuinely wanting to win as town.

DDS
Yes, DDS knows my play better than anyone here. That's the reason I went for him last game as scum, hanging my hat on loose D1 evidence. I would very much believe that DDS knows that I'm town this game, but he needs a lynch. I think DDS has ulterior motives. (Or, perhaps, just perhaps, I've played so lackadaisically that I'm so below my own standards that I come off as scum. It's just funny that that didn't count last game when I was scum.)

Kong/PMC
I maintain my stance that PMC went for the easy lynch D2 as there were three votes on Kong (which does represent some sort of pressure).

Son!c
He might be town, but he does a lot of things that really makes me think that he's scum. It might just be an annoyance with the overly confident style relying on absolutely nothing and then switching a second later. However, I did notice PMC coming to his defence. Noteworthy.

Scummy to chummy
DDS - I can't get over him not reading me correctly
PMC - I feel that he has come in to just pick the lowest hanging fruit (which would be my balls)
Son!c - Feels all over the place to me and flooding the thread
Traf - EW's points are good
Pepe - I always feel that Pepe is slightly scummy
Max - It could be either or with Max
Loose - I get a feeling that he is trying to solve this
EW - I always find myself agreeing with EW

---

Now, what have I not addressed? I shall do so tonight. If you can't wait, lynch me and move the game along. I apologise for being away at Næstved Metal Festival (now, look that shit up and swallow it, kiddo).

FP'ed by Loose.[/quote]

And what I want to point out is that Rags reasoning and final list of Scummy to Chummy may be incorrect in fact it is very likely to be in at least some respects BUT it was at least an HONEST LIST as he saw it.
(and it wasn't tainted by suspicion of himself as for example my suspicions were)

I won't shy away from answering suss on me .
DDS and those suspicious of DDS should perhaps have their say.

[SoN!c]

Lets state the facts we can agree on:

6 Players Remaining made up of
1 Werewolf
1 Mafia
2 Town Masons
2 Town Vanilla

2 Masons each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting for scum.
2 Vanilla town each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting scum (masons would declare if in danger of being lynched)
2 Scum each have a 1 in 3 chance if sticking a pin of voting rival scum (masons declare if in danger)


EW + X killed Devante and Traf
Traf + Y killed Strike + EW

IF we keep these facts in mind at all times we may be able to Deduce who X and Y are most likely to be, D3.

Does anyone want to disagree with the above framework?

I agree 100%.

Its just EW flipped scum and i had you both im my town list. And EW was so stronly alligned with you..

So did he (EW) say that to make you look town or did he say that to get you on his side or did he say that to make himself look townish?

I was even pretty sure you two were the Masons at a certain point, yes i know you denied that but not doing so would be stupid..

EW hinted very strongly he was a mason and nobody countered..

If 1 mason sacrifises himself for 1 scum we win. And rest of town would have an idea who to follow or at least what to consider.

Hope masons have a good plan because rest of town has no clue atm.

[Loose Canon]

Town and Masons may not have a clue , nevertheless we/they are in a good position.

EW would have given me a particular problem if he'd stayed in the game by my reckoning;
Both EW and PMC have come up with insights that I hadn't had on my own.
If push had come to shove I wouldn't have been able to put a cigarette paper between them as to their relative townieness/scumminess.
I probably wouldn't have been able to vote for either as things stood because of that.
Now that particular problem is removed because I can assess PM on his own merits/demerits.

[Loose Canon]

If you are a vanilla town I think the probability of your final vote if it is a lynch deciding vote, being on scum might get close to 2 in 3.
I'm not entirely sure about this though I feel it needs logic testing

[Loose Canon]

I have decided I like Max to go over despite what Rag says. He's right, we can't take any defense or push on him as info because there's no posts of his to attack or defend. Chance that a townie defends town!Max because he's low hanging fruit is as high as a scummie thinking it might get him good boy points. Chance that someone defends scum!Max is also very justifiable because anyone can hide behind the "well there was exactly a random chance that he was scum given that he didnt give us anything".

That being said, I also dont want to get into an endgame where we have to rely on Max to vote correctly or do something. Imagine worst case scenario: overnight both scums kill townies, and we lynched a townie in Max. Is this really worse than being in the same scenario with a townie in Max? We will have this same debate again on whether Max is allowed to live another day.

Town gets a couple lynches this game, I didnt check the previous games but after 2 nights theres likely 4 nightkills UNLESS one scum party gets wiped out n1. Imo a Max lynch satisfies the "always lynch" crowd despite it being a meh lynch as well as a "no lynch" crowd because they also dont want to ask themselves the same questions tomorrow.

vote max

At the time of posting this me and Sonic had votes on max. EW stuck on max. I don't think EW could have unvoted max after posting the above. EW added to a real possibility that max would be lynched D1.
Therefore whilst max might be in rival scum to EW the probability that max is same scum faction as EW is low and therefore probability that max is scum is lowered.

[pmchugh]

Not surprised by either of them, they were both in my shortlist but stupidly and went for poor ragian. Honestly thought that was a hit. Glad my tactic of baiting scum into shooting EW worked

I do now get the feeling one of sonic or LC is wolf. Not sure which one yet but it felt like they took my slight hint at rag and hard with it.

[pmchugh]

Lets state the facts we can agree on:

6 Players Remaining made up of
1 Werewolf
1 Mafia
2 Town Masons
2 Town Vanilla

2 Masons each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting for scum.
2 Vanilla town each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting scum (masons would declare if in danger of being lynched)
2 Scum each have a 1 in 3 chance if sticking a pin of voting rival scum (masons declare if in danger)


EW + X killed Devante and Traf
Traf + Y killed Strike + EW

IF we keep these facts in mind at all times we may be able to Deduce who X and Y are most likely to be, D3.

Does anyone want to disagree with the above framework?

This does seen towny post. It makes sense and breaks the game down well. I shall reread with this in mind.

[Loose Canon]

Not sure what to think of Rag. Will think about this for some time before making my mind.

For now I am pretty sure Pepe is Scum as I've said many times

He wanted a lynch then he decides not to hammer as he know that would make him inta suspect and decided toc ast a vote on me for no reason.

Vote Pepe

Pepe had voted Traf.
Traf then voted Pepe when it is pretty obvious Rag is going to be hammered
Pepe then unvotes Traf and hammers rag.

What was Trafs pointless vote on Pepe all about ?

[Loose Canon]

Not surprised by either of them, they were both in my shortlist but stupidly and went for poor ragian. Honestly thought that was a hit. Glad my tactic of baiting scum into shooting EW worked

I do now get the feeling one of sonic or LC is wolf. Not sure which one yet but it felt like they took my slight hint at rag and hard with it.

You have said flattering things about my play this game PMC.
That could be consistent with you being scum.
The probability of picking any 2 players and saying one of them is scum is not that small.
I could say the same of you and sonic or you and anyone at the moment and I'd have a decent shot of that turning out right.
You'd or I would also be hinting we are town or mason, and if you or I did turn out to be right we would look more townie rest of the game.
From a scum perspective any remaining scum player doesn't stand that good a chance of winning at the present time.
So why not throw the either or shot?

You've just thrown some suss on yourself PMC.

[pmchugh]

Not surprised by either of them, they were both in my shortlist but stupidly and went for poor ragian. Honestly thought that was a hit. Glad my tactic of baiting scum into shooting EW worked

I do now get the feeling one of sonic or LC is wolf. Not sure which one yet but it felt like they took my slight hint at rag and hard with it.

You have said flattering things about my play this game PMC.
That could be consistent with you being scum.
The probability of picking any 2 players and saying one of them is scum is not that small.
I could say the same of you and sonic or you and anyone at the moment and I'd have a decent shot of that turning out right.
You'd or I would also be hinting we are town or mason, and if you or I did turn out to be right we would look more townie rest of the game.
From a scum perspective any remaining scum player doesn't stand that good a chance of winning at the present time.
So why not throw the either or shot?

You've just thrown some suss on yourself PMC.

I think its just the ease with which the rag wagon went that makes me think it wasn't just hiveminding townies. I'm not picking two people at random but the two talkative steering the game players.

[Loose Canon]

Ok PM but as town or mason you COULD pick any 2 players for any reason and have a strong possibility that 1 would be scum.
As scum why not do this anyway, as a sole scum player left in a faction you or I or anyone would have nothing much to lose.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Lets state the facts we can agree on:

6 Players Remaining made up of
1 Werewolf
1 Mafia
2 Town Masons
2 Town Vanilla

2 Masons each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting for scum.
2 Vanilla town each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting scum (masons would declare if in danger of being lynched)
2 Scum each have a 1 in 3 chance if sticking a pin of voting rival scum (masons declare if in danger)


EW + X killed Devante and Traf
Traf + Y killed Strike + EW

IF we keep these facts in mind at all times we may be able to Deduce who X and Y are most likely to be, D3.

Does anyone want to disagree with the above framework?

I have to re read the set up but i don't believe this to be right from Charles sign up page. Not unless he deviated.

I think it might be this
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... nd_Enemies

With 11 players, 2 scum with an SK/Werewolf is likely.
Might just be one left.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Nope, nevermind, i found the set up

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _Other_Guy

Loose is on a roll.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I'm willing to bet my frosted flakes that one of the scumsters is a coin toss between Max and Pepe.

[Loose Canon]

DDS I've already argued that max is less likely to be scum than anyone else because he wouldn't have been on EWs faction
Do you want to argue against that?

Think you also need to address Rags deathbed pointing FOS at you too.

[Loose Canon]

well it was a 'good night' at least they are killing between them.
I really has not idea about their pairs.
I was suspect about Traf but no about EW...
Now with the list

PLAYER LIST:

Spoiler

DDS Sonic Kong [b][color=#0000FF]Replaced[/color][/b] by pmchugh Loose Max PepeAtila

I can try to guess who the scums are, but it will be very unlikely to be success. I just can follow any leadirship
who do you think are the scums?

Re Pepe I really don't like his follow any leadership thing again.
He did this line D1.
Got some heat early D2 and looked like he'd changed tack.
Then there's the end of D2 weird (to me) stuff between him and Traf (and there's something else I think I've now seen on this).
Maybe his scumbud Traf was killed so he's reverted back to his hide behind what everyone else votes for stuff again.

[Loose Canon]

Actually it might have been the I was suspect about Traf bit of pepes follow the leader bit that made me more suss of Pepe than a separate post entirely.

In any case Pepe is a firm lynch candidate of mine D3 already but I'm not in any rush to vote. Prefer to deduce the juice out of this D3 orange

[Loose Canon]

Yep Loose, deduce the juice till I'm only left with the pips or Pepes

[Ragian]

The night passed very quick, or at least it felt like it. While Town was asleep, Mafia and Wolves gathered with a huge fight

Night Result:

Spoiler

[color=#0000FF]Mafia decided to Kill[/color] [color=#FF8000]EW Wolf[/color] [color=#0000FF]Wolves decided to eat[/color] [color=#FF4000]Traf Mafia[/color]

It is now Day 3, with 6 alive you need 4 to lynch

I'm back to revising in my tomb.

[Votanic]

The night passed very quick, or at least it felt like it. While Town was asleep, Mafia and Wolves gathered with a huge fight

Night Result:

Spoiler

[color=#0000FF]Mafia decided to Kill[/color] [color=#FF8000]EW Wolf[/color] [color=#0000FF]Wolves decided to eat[/color] [color=#FF4000]Traf Mafia[/color]

It is now Day 3, with 6 alive you need 4 to lynch

I'm back to revising in my tomb.

Revising how to not look/act totally scummy when you're actually town?
I suggest a complete personality overhaul.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Regardless. I think Pepes gameplay has been more damning then Max. However, that leaves someone likely a bit more clever. I had EW and Traf at the top of my list following the lynch, followed with Pepe, Max, Loose, Sonic, PMC. (Most likely, least likely).

I think Rags train had at least 1 to 2 scumsters on it.

I'm gonna have to give it a bit more thought until i commit. I think I'm being played for a fool.

[SoN!c]

Regardless. I think Pepes gameplay has been more damning then Max. However, that leaves someone likely a bit more clever. I had EW and Traf at the top of my list following the lynch, followed with Pepe, Max, Loose, Sonic, PMC. (Most likely, least likely).

I think Rags train had at least 1 to 2 scumsters on it.

I'm gonna have to give it a bit more thought until i commit. I think I'm being played for a fool.

I have the exact same feeling, masterly played for a fool (on Rag), and also the exact same list in my mind, except on EW - i had him "as good as lock town" as Mason.

So Paranoia kicked in with me, and that paranoia dust needs to settle first before i can see clearly again.

We can't afford a mislynch so i agree with Loose making it a long D3.

[PepeAtila]

it's clear that someone is trying to make me look scum,...but there are two scums in the game and I'm not one of them...who will the two be?

The day D1 I was voting trying to get information, I did read wrongly about Strike and DDS,
so the day D2 I was just following DDS leadership I was feeling Traf was scum but people did vote Rag and then I voted Traf to see if anyone changed their vote after Rag's explanations... but nobody did it, and even the opossite: Rag and LC unvoted Traf, then I thought it was for nothing to wait more to hammer.

day D3 I felt it was a 'good day' but there are people against me, anyway I think that WE (town) are going to win, because it is just easy to find the scums.

I try to read the future:

if we lynch a scum today (LC says 50%), tonight the other scum will kill 1 townie...
... so for tomorrow 3 townies and 1 scum.

if we lynch a townie today (LC says 50%), tonight the scums can kill 2 people...
for each of them there is 25% to kill the other scum faction and 75% to kill a townie ...
so for tomorrow:
56% they will kill 2 townies, (1 town and 2 scums)
37% they will kill one scum and one town (2 town and 1 scum)
and 7% they kill each other, (3 townies).

I think these are approx the posibilities...

All of this to say just think twice before lynch today...
we have a lot of probabilities to win, but we have to be careful.

[DirtyDishSoap]

it's clear that someone is trying to make me look scum,...but there are two scums in the game and I'm not one of them...who will the two be?

The day D1 I was voting trying to get information, I did read wrongly about Strike and DDS,
so the day D2 I was just following DDS leadership I was feeling Traf was scum but people did vote Rag and then I voted Traf to see if anyone changed their vote after Rag's explanations... but nobody did it, and even the opossite: Rag and LC unvoted Traf, then I thought it was for nothing to wait more to hammer.

day D3 I felt it was a 'good day' but there are people against me, anyway I think that WE (town) are going to win, because it is just easy to find the scums.

I try to read the future:

if we lynch a scum today (LC says 50%), tonight the other scum will kill 1 townie...
... so for tomorrow 3 townies and 1 scum.

if we lynch a townie today (LC says 50%), tonight the scums can kill 2 people...
for each of them there is 25% to kill the other scum faction and 75% to kill a townie ...
so for tomorrow:
56% they will kill 2 townies, (1 town and 2 scums)
37% they will kill one scum and one town (2 town and 1 scum)
and 7% they kill each other, (3 townies).

I think these are approx the posibilities...

All of this to say just think twice before lynch today...
we have a lot of probabilities to win, but we have to be careful.

Okay, that's actually the most detailed post you've had outside of just a sentence and vote behind someone. You more or less just admitted you followed people without much thought. Do you not see why that's scummy?

That's math, and I'm drinking. I can't math right now. I think it's wrong just from a glance? I'll probably refute it tomorrow after a hairs dog and an aspirin. If it's right, i won't say shit lol.