Cat. Mafia Pain Killer & Kwanton WIN

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:39 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote:My reasoning is that Day 1 lynching is a lottery. By all means, let's pull and Inquisition on Day 2 (I'm not a Survivor, and those of you who are: tough luck! ). But, let us first give a Cop one chance to investigate, let's allow Night-kills to tell us something: let's get some info before we go on a lynching spree.
On a compleately separate and purely speculative note, you wouldn't happen to be a SK, Aim?

Alas; no. My role is much more mundane.

I can see the thing about the cop; but I'm not really inclined to rely on it. At best, that will only give us one scum. I think taking a shotgun approach to day one gives us the best information to use for pulling an Inquisition day two; the only thing we need to make sure of is that we don't put ourselves close to LYLO, and I think we're quite a ways away from that right now, even after the night.

There are 14 of us still standing. Probably no more than 4 scum. One more lynch and two night kills put us at 11, so that still leaves us quite a bit of breathing room. 3 night kills might get tricky, but with red bull dead I'm hoping we won't have that many.

At any rate, though, I guess you have convinced me regarding your rationale. I'm not sure I agree, but I can see how you could get there from a town perspective.

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:42 pm

Aimless wrote:
mandalorian2298 wrote:My reasoning is that Day 1 lynching is a lottery. By all means, let's pull and Inquisition on Day 2 (I'm not a Survivor, and those of you who are: tough luck! ). But, let us first give a Cop one chance to investigate, let's allow Night-kills to tell us something: let's get some info before we go on a lynching spree.
On a compleately separate and purely speculative note, you wouldn't happen to be a SK, Aim?

Alas; no. My role is much more mundane.

I can see the thing about the cop; but I'm not really inclined to rely on it. At best, that will only give us one scum. I think taking a shotgun approach to day one gives us the best information to use for pulling an Inquisition day two; the only thing we need to make sure of is that we don't put ourselves close to LYLO, and I think we're quite a ways away from that right now, even after the night.

There are 14 of us still standing. Probably no more than 4 scum. One more lynch and two night kills put us at 11, so that still leaves us quite a bit of breathing room. 3 night kills might get tricky, but with red bull dead I'm hoping we won't have that many.

At any rate, though, I guess you have convinced me regarding your rationale. I'm not sure I agree, but I can see how you could get there from a town perspective.

2 night kills? Explain what makes you think there will be 2 night kills. From my calulations there will only be 1. Also sure we don't want to get close to LYLO, but why use up one of those lynchs on a day 1. I mean people usually don't like the day 1 lynch, why make more day 1 lynches?

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:59 pm

Fircoal wrote:2 night kills? Explain what makes you think there will be 2 night kills. From my calulations there will only be 1. Also sure we don't want to get close to LYLO, but why use up one of those lynchs on a day 1. I mean people usually don't like the day 1 lynch, why make more day 1 lynches?

This is catastrophe mafia, which is traditionally bloody. I'm actually afraid we'll have three.

Here's how I'm getting there : in a normal game (at it's bloodiest), we'd have a mafia, an SK, and a vig. The SK's dead, this leaves us with two. Given the town is overpowered (by reason of our voting powers), we may not have a vig. This leaves us with one.

However, this being catastrophe mafia, I am adding one kill to all of my assumptions in an attempt to account for the unknown. I'm not sure what the kill may be - possibly the mafia get two night kills, possibly there's an extra SK running around, we might even find ourselves in a situation with two scum groups of 3.

I don't know; I'm guessing, but I'm trying to make estimations based on the worst case of what I think we could be up against as town, because I know that, as a mod, if I were running a catastrophe game that's the kind of thing I would throw against a town with this kind of game-breaking power.

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:04 am

Aimless wrote:
Fircoal wrote:2 night kills? Explain what makes you think there will be 2 night kills. From my calulations there will only be 1. Also sure we don't want to get close to LYLO, but why use up one of those lynchs on a day 1. I mean people usually don't like the day 1 lynch, why make more day 1 lynches?

This is catastrophe mafia, which is traditionally bloody. I'm actually afraid we'll have three.

Here's how I'm getting there : in a normal game (at it's bloodiest), we'd have a mafia, an SK, and a vig. The SK's dead, this leaves us with two. Given the town is overpowered (by reason of our voting powers), we may not have a vig. This leaves us with one.

However, this being catastrophe mafia, I am adding one kill to all of my assumptions in an attempt to account for the unknown. I'm not sure what the kill may be - possibly the mafia get two night kills, possibly there's an extra SK running around, we might even find ourselves in a situation with two scum groups of 3.

I don't know; I'm guessing, but I'm trying to make estimations based on the worst case of what I think we could be up against as town, because I know that, as a mod, if I were running a catastrophe game that's the kind of thing I would throw against a town with this kind of game-breaking power.

Hmm, thanks. I see what you mean. But if we were going by the mafia, SK, vig thing like you said before it would only be 1 kill probably. I don't think that the mafia would get 2 kills though, that seems a bit overpowered. Maybe an extra SK. Or maybe the power could be some extra add-on roles to the mafia members, like a mafia roleblocker. Or an extra member. I'm thinking more of my last idea would be the case.

kwanton · Post by **kwanton** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:17 am

Me and aimless already had this argument a few pages back. Right now I think 3 lynches would be perfect. If red bull was telling the truth about his claim then we have -1 anti-town NK. One of my biggest problems with day 1 multi-kills was the fact that we don't know how many NK's there will be. Now that we have taken an SK out of the picture we should fish some more. Right now those who automatically pushed for no lynch look rather scummy to me. We took out 1 scum so it seemed to me the others were running scared. Better to spend our time looking for leads instead of going to a scum-controlled night. Just FYI I probably would have voted no lynch too eventually if we hadn't lynched the SK.

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:24 am

kwanton wrote:Me and aimless already had this argument a few pages back. Right now I think 3 lynches would be perfect. If red bull was telling the truth about his claim then we have -1 anti-town NK. One of my biggest problems with day 1 multi-kills was the fact that we don't know how many NK's there will be. Now that we have taken an SK out of the picture we should fish some more. Right now those who automatically pushed for no lynch look rather scummy to me. We took out 1 scum so it seemed to me the others were running scared. Better to spend our time looking for leads instead of going to a scum-controlled night. Just FYI I probably would have voted no lynch too eventually if we hadn't lynched the SK.

No, I'm not running scared of being lynched, it's just that I think 2 kills could be enough. Also look at what you said, next. Look for leads, basicilly I've said that I'll unvote the no lynch if people either argee with me on Balsiefan, or put up some proof. I've seen neither.

kwanton · Post by **kwanton** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:49 am

Well what I was saying is we should take time to find proof instead of jumping to no lynch automatically. I'm gonna take time to look back on bals tho.

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:55 am

kwanton wrote:Well what I was saying is we should take time to find proof instead of jumping to no lynch automatically. I'm gonna take time to look back on bals tho.

Ok, I'll go with that.

Unvote

kwanton · Post by **kwanton** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:13 am

Ok I looked back and balsy is acting pretty suspicious. First he wasn't contributing much. Then again there are others who aren't posting at all. At this point tho I'd like our third lynch to be based on something scummy someone actually did instead of a lack of helpfullness. The second thing is it seemed to me when Balsiefan posted that people were voting randomly he had only read the first few pages. In fact at that point we were all on red bull. Balsiefan also seemed to contradict himself by voting for red bull then saying resons why we shouldn't vote red bull.

fos Balsiefan

My main suspect was red bull and we lynched him (SKum YAY!) so I have no real suspicions other than Balsiefan and those who were trying to push for no lynch.

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:40 am

Regarding the need to do a 3rd lynch that was exactly my thoughts Kwanton. I wouldn't have seen the point if we weren't sure for Red bull.
As for Balsie, well I remember he was seeming a bit scummy to me before, but his explanation about that last post where he was voting Red bull made sense to me, so not sure... I'll check back to see if there was something else, cause it doesn't seem enough to me.

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:54 am

yeah i put a FOS on balsie quite recently and you guys have just added to it

unvote vote balsiefan

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 4:37 am

im going away on thursday so ill need replacing probably

mandalorian2298 · Post by **mandalorian2298** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 7:35 am

Aimless wrote:
mandalorian2298 wrote:My reasoning is that Day 1 lynching is a lottery. By all means, let's pull and Inquisition on Day 2 (I'm not a Survivor, and those of you who are: tough luck! ). But, let us first give a Cop one chance to investigate, let's allow Night-kills to tell us something: let's get some info before we go on a lynching spree.
On a compleately separate and purely speculative note, you wouldn't happen to be a SK, Aim?

Alas; no. My role is much more mundane.

I can see the thing about the cop; but I'm not really inclined to rely on it. At best, that will only give us one scum. I think taking a shotgun approach to day one gives us the best information to use for pulling an Inquisition day two; the only thing we need to make sure of is that we don't put ourselves close to LYLO, and I think we're quite a ways away from that right now, even after the night.

There are 14 of us still standing. Probably no more than 4 scum. One more lynch and two night kills put us at 11, so that still leaves us quite a bit of breathing room. 3 night kills might get tricky, but with red bull dead I'm hoping we won't have that many.

At any rate, though, I guess you have convinced me regarding your rationale. I'm not sure I agree, but I can see how you could get there from a town perspective.

Bah, I am far from compleatly understanding your logic, but all this opposing slaughter makes me sick with myself. :twisted:

Fine unvote
vote Spinwizard for submarrining and because voting him is a proven method to get him to show up. In fact, he doesn't seem to be playing at all, except to wave away the votes for him. :-k

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 8:52 am

Well, actually Spin & Cmckinney didn't post at all since Chad got lynched. Both seem to have abandonned the games they were modding. Ah well we'll see if they pop up again before the end of the day...

As for Balsie, hmmm... I want to see an answer from him first

mandalorian2298 · Post by **mandalorian2298** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:28 am

ga7 wrote:Well, actually Spin & Cmckinney didn't post at all since Chad got lynched. Both seem to have abandonned the games they were modding. Ah well we'll see if they pop up again before the end of the day...

As for Balsie, hmmm... I want to see an answer from him first

Hey, if I understand you Aimlesses strategy correctly, you want another dead body. All else being same, I would rather lynch a deadbeat then an active player.

Koesen · Post by **Koesen** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:40 am

I don't like deadbeats either. Until something better comes along, Vote Spin

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:35 am

mandalorian2298 wrote:
ga7 wrote:Well, actually Spin & Cmckinney didn't post at all since Chad got lynched. Both seem to have abandonned the games they were modding. Ah well we'll see if they pop up again before the end of the day...

As for Balsie, hmmm... I want to see an answer from him first

Hey, if I understand you Aimlesses strategy correctly, you want another dead body. All else being same, I would rather lynch a deadbeat then an active player.

actually I'd rather lynch a scummy semi-active poster with Balsiefan is. His posts are big signs of fence sitting, and don't really have much sustance. He only posts once a day, and those posts make him look scummier, and still don't say much.

Vote: Balsiefan

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:57 am

I like the spinwizard idea. We will have lynched a spammer, someone scummy, and a submariner. That basically covers the bases of trying to identify what scum might be doing, which goes along with my shotgun approach.

Vote: spinwizard

ga7 · Post by **ga7** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:09 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote:
ga7 wrote:Well, actually Spin & Cmckinney didn't post at all since Chad got lynched. Both seem to have abandonned the games they were modding. Ah well we'll see if they pop up again before the end of the day...

As for Balsie, hmmm... I want to see an answer from him first

Hey, if I understand you Aimlesses strategy correctly, you want another dead body. All else being same, I would rather lynch a deadbeat then an active player.

Sure, the thing is it's close to voting random in my opinion. Anyway, I'll vote Spin tomorrow; we might get lucky and a dead weight less is always good when the numbers go reducing. (Plus he abandonned us on NV1 :evil:

)
As for Balsie's case, it looks as thin as my rolling paper.

The1exile · Post by **The1exile** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:12 pm

Vote count?

kwanton · Post by **kwanton** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:23 pm

Hrm well at first I thought we should lynch based on scummy behavior rather than lack of help but people make a good point about lynching a variety of suspicious people to cover all our bases. Well now I just don't know who to vote for.

P.S. Yes I know this isn't really helpful but this thread got pretty low and I wanted to bump.

Balsiefen · Post by **Balsiefen** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 1:52 pm

Fircoal wrote:
mandalorian2298 wrote:
ga7 wrote:Well, actually Spin & Cmckinney didn't post at all since Chad got lynched. Both seem to have abandonned the games they were modding. Ah well we'll see if they pop up again before the end of the day...

As for Balsie, hmmm... I want to see an answer from him first

Hey, if I understand you Aimlesses strategy correctly, you want another dead body. All else being same, I would rather lynch a deadbeat then an active player.

actually I'd rather lynch a scummy semi-active poster with Balsiefan is. His posts are big signs of fence sitting, and don't really have much sustance. He only posts once a day, and those posts make him look scummier, and still don't say much.

Vote: Balsiefan

Ok, the reason i only post one a day is................ Because i'm only on conquer club one a day!

I agree I am a fence sitter, I dont like voting for people just when they dont seem scummy to me. I am also disorientated as i have never played a cat mafia before but i am aware that the mafia would probrbly want as many deaths in the day as possible to save themselves the trouble, however now that we know we have already lynched an SK i have no problem with lynching one more as the nightkills are proberbly down.

As for who to kill, I honestly dont know, i am however deeply suspicious of those who want to kill just for numbers sake with no grounds or evedence.

I am also sorry about my confusing posts, a lot of things have been on my mind lately and my mind wasn't fully concentrated on the job in hand so they were rambling and i didn't get my points across clear enough. I'm also rushed in writing this one so if theres anything ive not said properly pease tell me

LSU Tiger Josh · Post by **LSU Tiger Josh** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:21 pm

Vote count will be done later tonight when I get home from my grandparents.

firth4eva · Post by **firth4eva** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 3:18 pm

balsiefan has just confirmed my vote

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 4:08 pm

Balsiefen wrote:OK, the reason I only post one a day is................ because I'm only on Conquer Club once a day!

I agree I am a fence sitter, I don't like voting for people just when they don't seem scummy to me. I am also disorientated as I have never played a cat mafia before but I am aware that the mafia would probably want as many deaths in the day as possible to save themselves the trouble, however now that we know we have already lynched an SK I have no problem with lynching one more as the nightkills are probably down.

As for who to kill, I honestly don't know, I am however deeply suspicious of those who want to kill just for numbers sake with no grounds or evidence.

I am also sorry about my confusing posts, a lot of things have been on my mind lately and my mind wasn't fully concentrated on the job in hand so they were rambling and i didn't get my points across clear enough. I'm also rushed in writing this one so if theres anything I've not said properly please tell me

Always a good reason not to vote. Spin's inactivity here warrants a replacement, not a lynch. Unless he's scum, so if the mafia would kindly tell us if he's scum or not, that would be great.

Now we see the flipside of Aimless' coin of logic. Lynching 3, while providing a 70% chance of hitting scum randomly, still has a 30% chance of missing entirely. I think this is a good time to point out that if RB was in fact an SK, We only get 2 random lynches, since we knew his role beforehand, therefore, only 50% to get a second scum.

One more lynch is a good idea. 50% is better than 30%. Why shouldn't we lynch you?

Rambling posts don't help, but I know how it is to be incredibly busy. I'm still not convinced why we shouldn't lynch you.

Post spellchecked