[Official] HP Mafia - MVP: Aage - Archive

[degaston]

aage, if you're scum, then I suppose you shouldn't like me because I'm out to get you. I'm going to try to examine your statements and expose the patterns and/or inconsistencies that I find.

If you're town, then there was no reason for you to put so much effort into siding with the one player that we know is not town. The simple solution to this is to lynch Storr tomorrow (unless something better comes up). Losing a "3rd party" should be be a small price to pay to shut me up, right?

[StorrZerg]

If this is true, it just means that you didn't cast your second vote, then remove it as you casted your real vote to hide a lie.

[StorrZerg]

@deg, majority of town has decided to not lynch me twice, along with many dead towns not favoring me as scum. Is his behavior really that strange? Sure he might be to bold knowing what I say is true, and that's why he sticks up for me.

[degaston]

@deg, majority of town has decided to not lynch me twice, along with many dead towns not favoring me as scum. Is that somehow supposed to prove that you're not scum? Is his behavior really that strange? Some might call it scummy following. Sure he might be to bold knowing what I say is true, and that's why he sticks up for me.

My point is that if aage is town, then he does not know that what you're saying is true, so why does he choose to defend you every time? After two days where you (and he) were on the wrong side of a lynch, and I was defending a townie over a 3rd party, why does he still take your side over mine?

[got tonkaed]

I think because aage pretty genuinely believes Storr's claim.

Once you start from there, arguments about Storr kind of end up being circular and don't really matter.

[virus90]

yes i made it through the posts! people are on posting steroids once again. struggled through pages and pages.

But i think its clear that we have to lynch Ragian, there are inconsistensies and mistakes (checking storr n1?) in his play, besides i guess we have to start flipping even the roles we all think that are town, (dumbledore, ron hermione, harry?) im not saying that we should kill them all. no thats not what i mean at all. i mean; im afraid that the mod gave very decent fake claims, so far the flips seem to make sense alignement wise, but lets be honest, Minerva McGonagall flipping scum would be weird.

so far we have claimed:
Harry, Ron, Hermione, Dumbledore, Madeye moody, Filch, Kingsley Shacklebolt, Flitwick. Lupin. and i probably missed a claim.
dead: Fudge, Snape, Dobby, Tonks, Minerva McGonagall.
i can think of many more people who would be probable Pro-harry, Sirius, whole weasley family, Neville, Luna, whole group of his, Hagrid other teachers.
thus i woulndt be surprised if mafia had strong fake claims and i am afraid we only find out by flipping some of them, for some reason all of the claims so far havent been flipped yet, which makes me believe some are fake aswell. i mean mafia not going after Harry, Ron, Hermione, mad eye? i understand that your afraid of protections as scum but this just seems a bit too strange.

so to conclude i gladly join the vote on Ragian.
As for others then the obvious, im not sold on talapus and madmitch,
madmitch being ron should have offered more then a name claim and then just jump on some bandwagons, i got the feeling he is new but he is not acting like an important town character in fact he hasnt said much at all besides flavour wise indicating who he is.

[StorrZerg]

Deg have you ever town read someone for being wrong about a lynch?

[degaston]

Deg have you ever town read someone for being wrong about a lynch?

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, or why. Can you rephrase it?

[StorrZerg]

Deg have you ever town read someone for being wrong about a lynch?

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, or why. Can you rephrase it?

Have you ever read someone is town, even though they had pushed a fellow town. As in, did you like that they had been scum hunting, or liked their thinking , even though the end result is they are wrong.

[charm]

I plan to vote Rag, when we are ready to lynch him, but will not post a vote until we are ready. I wouldn't mind starting it early though (how about Wednesday night at the witching hour?) Then we would be able to start day 4 on Sunday. Just a thought!

[got tonkaed]

Honestly I am ready for the lynch.

Strike had the most valid point about what we were waiting for (if someone had been hit with a spell that was going to kill them tonight). It made sense to wait yesterday and makes sense to wait through today, but it has been long enough now that most everyone has had a chance to check in. It is reasonable to assume no one was hit with the spell the longer we go.

Other than that, its just a long circle over Storr/aage vs degaston (i am only lumping them together for how it has read, not saying i think that you two are a pair). Without much other content and seemingly no one who has any power role eager to divulge anything, I think we should be good with the fact we appear to have finally caught someone.

[StorrZerg]

We should follow with the people make a case on someone new. Not everyone has done that.

[got tonkaed]

I mean unless charm wants to post why I am a bad guy, I am not sure who that outsider is going to be. At this point it more or less is strike/storr/degaston posting with aage building on what people post. Streaker would count for this as well.

Mud, dazza, virus haven't really done much for me and any of them could be pushed under the idea that they are mostly no content posting. Hotshot is on vacation and DD soft claimed.

I guess i just dont see who this person is going to be.

[mtamburini]

if we could delay a lynch til thursday this way i can get my night action in on friday before i go on vacation thatd be great

[degaston]

Deg have you ever town read someone for being wrong about a lynch?

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, or why. Can you rephrase it?

Have you ever read someone is town, even though they had pushed a fellow town. As in, did you like that they had been scum hunting, or liked their thinking , even though the end result is they are wrong.

I think my read on MudPuppy might qualify. It's not exactly scum hunting, but I thought that his effort to get a tie on day 1, while perhaps misguided, was extremely townish.

If he was scum, then he would know that both pershy and I were town, so it would be very anti-scum to try for a tie. It would also be very risky as some kind of gambit, because if it was successful, then he would likely be a target on the next day, and if he was unsuccessful, then there's no guarantee that anyone would even notice his effort, much less see it as townish.

If he was town, then he would not have known pershy's and my alignment, so it would still be very risky personally, and he would not even know that it was the right thing to do.

So my conclusion is that he was just playing a hunch to try to do the best thing for the town as he saw it.

[Endgame422]

Re reading rage has shown that he has persistently pushed on charm.
Also he has defended pix(who is MIA) on a number of occasions before his claim of Hermione.
On this note pix getting to L-1 and not getting hammered combined with rages defense of him is making me think pix has likely fakeclaimed.

[got tonkaed]

I guess as a point of clarification Degaston; you mentioned on D2 you felt like your role was more of a follower in nature. Was there any chance you caught Ragian visiting and perhaps he wasn't the only one?

It would at the very least present a plausible scenario for Pixar not fake claiming and would present a reason for us to lynch Endgame for trying to lynch Hermonie.

[StorrZerg]

I mean unless charm wants to post why I am a bad guy, I am not sure who that outsider is going to be. At this point it more or less is strike/storr/degaston posting with aage building on what people post. Streaker would count for this as well.

Mud, dazza, virus haven't really done much for me and any of them could be pushed under the idea that they are mostly no content posting. Hotshot is on vacation and DD soft claimed.

I guess i just dont see who this person is going to be.

The point is to generate content

[StorrZerg]

@deg, because you have or can understand, it might help you to understand why a town aage would be more willing to believe me rather than you. It's the same reason why strike wasn't willing to lynch me yesterday, or mets. Or strike 1.0.
and a fellow 3rd party survivor wing.

[mtamburini]

I guess as a point of clarification Degaston; you mentioned on D2 you felt like your role was more of a follower in nature. Was there any chance you caught Ragian visiting and perhaps he wasn't the only one?

It would at the very least present a plausible scenario for Pixar not fake claiming and would present a reason for us to lynch Endgame for trying to lynch Hermonie.

Pixars life is on a timer, he has to be NKd eventually if hes town, scum cant afford to leave a medic alive for the entire game.

[degaston]

I guess as a point of clarification Degaston; you mentioned on D2 you felt like your role was more of a follower in nature. Was there any chance you caught Ragian visiting and perhaps he wasn't the only one?

It would at the very least present a plausible scenario for Pixar not fake claiming and would present a reason for us to lynch Endgame for trying to lynch Hermonie.

I based my role type on this:

The Follower is an informative role that can target a player at Night and learn what form of action they took that Night (investigation, protection, killing, etc), but not who they targeted.

I only find out if the person I targeted has a wand or not, and if they do, the last spell they cast (in accordance with the NA mechanics). I don't get any information about who they targeted, and with the bus driver type spells out there, there's no guarantee that the person I targeted is even the one that I receive information for.

I was a little worried that my target of Ragian might have been messed with, but I think he's confirmed himself as scum.

[Ragian]

Rage pleasje confirm the check result on me

I already have. Read my former post.

I call bull on not knowing the name of the killing spell. Epi has been pretty straight forward when asked to clarify for me and I dont see why he would get closed mouth on the spell name.

We still need to establish who was poisoned.

Fair enough. I can't do anything about that. Some drilling indicates that dumbledore (you tell me) has used a spell that was never named in the books.

Btw is anyone bothered by about Tambo taking care of me n1.

And rage ignored that, and investigated me anyways? Additionally I didn't get my present. ..

I've never seen anyone claim 3rd party D1. Neither have I seen a day end like D1 ended. You were the best choice in my opinion (please remember that I thought I'd get to know if you were third party or scum). Moreover, I didn't know what to think of mtam. I still don't. He randomly shows up and shouts at people. He reminds me of a drunk granddad.

I have some thoughts but i would like rage to tell us what mets showed as when investigated.
Was he town or non-town?

Sheesh. If you wanna vote me because someone has gotten a wrong result or whatever has happened, just go ahead. Don't ask questions that are answered in a scene.

Now, get this overwith so you all bite your bottoms lips goings, "Aww, schucks. That was another powerful townie gone."

Reads for you to consider when you come to your senses:
1. BGtheBrain- Strike wolf v2.0 95% town
2. StorrZerg non-town, but you must get scum tomorrow
3. *Pixar* I maintain that he's town
4. got tonkaed has seemed town to me
5. strikewolf - Minerva McGonagall - Town Watcher
6. mtamburini Still HP till counterclaimed
7. IronButterfly Metsfanmaxx - Nymphadora Tonks - Town Mason
8. dakky21 Talapus - no read...
9. Endgame422 scummy, on bandwagons, hasn't posted anything of significance
10. Streaker slightly scummy, should be revisited D4
11. aage - no read, at times I think he's matter-of-fact and informed, next he's weird and frustrated
12. skillfusniper - Dobby - Vanilla Townie
13. pershy - Severus Snape - Town Vigilante
14. virus90 slightly scummy but only based on lack of participation and relevant posts
15. madmitch same as above, but has claimed powerful role
16. dazza2008 seems town - his play fits his normal town play
17. MudPuppy - no read...
18. degaston misguided townie. I would not blame him for my lynch if it comes to that
19. Ragian old dude withlong beird
20. sempaispellcheck vote steal indicates town
21. HotShot53 slightly scummy, not a lot of posting and most of it echoes whatever is said
22. dd515087 - no real read at the moment. I thought he was scummy, but then streaker made a case on him. That speaks for him.
23. jbfloyd - WingCmdr Ginkapo - Cornelius Fudge - 3p Survivor
24. charm - Weird: doesn't do shit D2 because her vote is stolen. Doesn't make sense...

Go town!

[StorrZerg]

Rage scum slipped on sempai, says he vote steals lololol

[madmitch]

@ deg,thanks for the breakdown,can't say I agree on all your posts, I have not posted much because I cannot see the reason why everyone wants a quick hanging but as long it not my friends Harry and Hermonie I guess I could agree with it,just make sure we have the right one' we lost tomany town already

[degaston]

@deg, because you have or can understand, it might help you to understand why a town aage would be more willing to believe me rather than you. It's the same reason why strike wasn't willing to lynch me yesterday, or mets. Or strike 1.0.
and a fellow 3rd party survivor wing.

Is the reason a secret? Because I don't see it mentioned anywhere in your post.

But anyway, yeah, I know that people think that a 3rd party is potentially helpful, or at worst, harmless. And that they'd rather vote for someone that they think might be scum rather than just someone that they know is not town. I just think their reasoning is mistaken in both cases.

I've explained before how a 3rd party cannot be trusted when it gets close to lylo. You can say that's a hypothetical case, but it becomes more likely as we lose more townies. And that was when I even believed that you were 3rd party. It would seem pretty crazy for a scum to expose themselves right from the beginning with a fake 3rd party claim, but perhaps less so when you consider that the other scum will be there to redirect any push on you. I wouldn't think an inexperienced player would try this, but it looks like you've played a lot of mafia, and maybe wanted to try something unusual. At this point, I admit I don't know the truth, but aage's dogged protection of you, and frustration at my questions makes me suspect that I'm right.

As an analogy, I see the situation like this:
The town has 24 boxes (players) to choose from. Each box contains $100 if the player is scum, $0 if they're 3rd party, and a bill (-$100) that has to be paid if the player is town.
Suppose about 6-7 boxes have $100, 1-2 have $0, and 15-17 have -$100
Each day, we have to pick a box to open, and at night the scum remove 1 or 2 of the boxes without $100. Throughout the day and night, we gain information that should help us choose the right boxes in the future. How do we get the most money?

At the start of the game, without much information, we kind of have to pick randomly, so it's obviously much more likely that we'll pick a box with -$100 (town).
But you have identified yourself as a box that contains $0 (3rd party).
There's a small chance that you might be lying and contain $100 (scum), but there's essentially no chance that you contain -$100.

So the way I see it is that there is essentially no downside to choosing you, especially at the beginning, and a much larger probability of a downside if we choose anyone else. The most logical course is to choose you early, and use the additional information gained through the night and next day to make a better choice tomorrow. I don't know if everyone will see this. It was intuitively obvious to me, but aage may still have some clever retort like:

hanging Storr is fucking stupid as discussed countless times before.