[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Vote Count

Rish (3) - benga, Mitch, Deg,
Deg (3) - Rage, Mets, LSU,
Mitch (1) - Aladdin
No lynch (2) - rish, players

8 to lynch. Deadline monday 29th 12:00 CC time

[Iron Butterfly]

I can't be sure of that and that crossed my mind too.. It should be an easy choice for the 2 of u and yet rish hasn't voted u and u have only just voted him so do u think he is scummy or are u just taking the easy choice now?

For me, it's a choice between benga lying about the 'Alignment definer' and rish being scum. I thought rish was town on D4 when he had been jailing Wing, who I thought was scummy. Now that wing is confirmed town, and I see how little Rish has actually contributed to the game, how he seems to be avoiding the game, and how there hasn't been any pressure put on him because of it, I am reasonably comfortable that he is scum.

Other players who are still alive and are barely contributing:

- madmitch
- benga
- LSU
- /
- DJPatrick
- twr
- CatchersMitt


Are they all scum too, because no one has put much pressure on them for their inactivity?

Not all but definitely some.

Also this whole idea of lynching Deg cause he is VT over Rish does not hold water this late in the game. If we mislynch regardless, mafia will get two kills. The game will be down to 13.We still do not know how many third parties there are. Every Town counts regardless if they are VT or not. Also your list does not take into account overall participation.

Lynching Deg because he is VT is crap rationale. You also fail to mention anything Rish has done.

I also suspect there is a mafia bus driver. It makes perfect sense. Why would get a Town result on a third party survivor unless I really was targeting a Town. It could suggest Mafia was protecting him.

[Metsfanmax]

Also this whole idea of lynching Deg cause he is VT over Rish does not hold water this late in the game. If we mislynch regardless, mafia will get two kills. The game will be down to 13.We still do not know how many third parties there are. Every Town counts regardless if they are VT or not. Also your list does not take into account overall participation.

I think everyone should keep their perspective in check on this. Yes, in some sense it's late in the game. But also there's 15 players left. That's as many players as most of our games start with. We have some wiggle room. Do I want to get this lynch correct on this try rather than the next? Of course. But I'm not going to panic over the decision because the time is not yet right for panic, and also because panic usually leads to unclear thinking.

If you've got a case against rish that makes him more likely to be scum than deg, give it. Frankly I haven't said much about rish because he hasn't actually done a whole lot worth commenting on. Most of what can be said about his play has already been said by others.

[Metsfanmax]

(One point which I think hasn't been sufficiently discussed though, is why rish blocked Wing twice. That didn't make much sense to me. He ended up doing town a solid, but how did he know? But I guess it's not alignment indicative, because why would a scum stop a vig from shooting blindly into the town?)

[Iron Butterfly]

Also this whole idea of lynching Deg cause he is VT over Rish does not hold water this late in the game. If we mislynch regardless, mafia will get two kills. The game will be down to 13.We still do not know how many third parties there are. Every Town counts regardless if they are VT or not. Also your list does not take into account overall participation.

I think everyone should keep their perspective in check on this. Yes, in some sense it's late in the game. But also there's 15 players left. That's as many players as most of our games start with. We have some wiggle room. Do I want to get this lynch correct on this try rather than the next? Of course. But I'm not going to panic over the decision because the time is not yet right for panic, and also because panic usually leads to unclear thinking.

If you've got a case against rish that makes him more likely to be scum than deg, give it. Frankly I haven't said much about rish because he hasn't actually done a whole lot worth commenting on. Most of what can be said about his play has already been said by others.

No one has said anything about panic. I believe it is more in the order of common sense. Most games with 15 players start with a balance between scum and Town. Lynching Deg simply because he is VT instead of scum behavior is foolish. As I stated earlier we lynch Town one more dies tonight we come back with 13 players. At this point we have no idea of the ratio between Town scum and third party so it is NOT like starting a game with 15 players. Even you must be smart enough to see that.

Second I question the choices Rish has made. He jailed me night three under the pretense of protecting me, a VT, which I found boggling. Shit why not protect the cop so he makes it later into the game? No he protects Stoor another proclaimed VT with Town cred.

Finally we have had 13 deaths and only one mafia has turned up so far. In a 28 player game how many mafia you think there may be?

[Metsfanmax]

In a town/mafia only game I would probably put 5 or 6 mafia in with 28 total players. We know there are 3P in this game so I would be really surprised if there were more than 5 mafia. So possibly we started with 4, and not more than 5. That means we have 3 or 4 scum left now. If we take my route of lynching deg and he flips town, then we lose another town tonight and we lynch a scum the next day, and a town the night after that, so we'll be going into D7 with 11 players left, of which 2 or 3 are scum. Those odds for town are not too dissimilar from the usual, and that's assuming the worst case that we lose a town on both N5 and N6. And town is in a stronger position in that scenario than they are starting a game with those same numbers, because we have much more information than we usually do. So I really do think that it's safe to lynch deg. I might not advocate that if I was more confident that rish was scum, but that's not the case for me. You know me by now -- I play the numbers much more than I play the reads. I distrust reads because they're often malformed, and my own reads are no exception.

Re: rish's N3 action. His reason given for protecting you -- an effective VT -- was that you are experienced/intelligent and might therefore be a mafia target. So presumably it wasn't about saving you specifically as it was about preventing a mafia kill. Still, I agree that the reasoning is pretty sketchy. But is it alignment indicative? Doubtful. Why would a scum roleblock a VT? I think it was just a questionable choice, but I'm not sure how to argue that it makes him scummy. Your reasoning that he should have protected someone else is better, but still we have the opposite problem -- if he's scum he also might jail a cop to prevent an investigation, and get away with it under the pretense you gave of "protecting" him until later in the game. (When mafia can just shoot him.) So to me that N3 action looks like a stupid choice regardless of which side he's on, but not a stupid choice we can learn a whole lot from.

Of course then there's the question of whether rish is telling the truth; and, no one died on N3, so I'm not exactly sure what to think there. But rish is a reasonably experienced player, if he was going to lie he could have come up with a better story than that. But then there's the standard WIFOM response, maybe he came up with a bad reason because he figured we would expect him not to. So I'm partially at a loss here.

[AladdinSane]

No one has bothered with this because it's a stupid question. Only mods and OPs can change thread titles. Benga didn't do anything with the thread header, he was just the first one to respond after the thread title was changed.

fp'ed by Deg...dang not qwik enuff...but my qwestjuns dozent looks so stupid now, does it?

Yes, it still looks stupid. I'm obviously perfectly aware that someone can change the subject line of their own post. The point is that benga didn't do that. Someone changed the actual thread title, and benga was the first to do a clean reply after that happened.

Okay, you're rite. But even if a Mod changed it to "Kills start", it is a misterious title, given teh way Storr died. Does it portend sumting new happening in teh game? Are their going to be more deths by litening? Tho I gess if a Mod did dat, den we have no way of knowing at dis point wot it means, so i'll drop it.

[/]

I've given a good second read and now have a target that I'm confident in, Mets. He's been the ultimate contrarian the entire game, instead of offering something, ANYTHING solid, we instead flaunts how utterly dumb everything everyone else is saying is, which is very odd since I know Mets is quite the sharp one. He has also been flipping between bringing up tons of meta, then just as easily dismissing meta, very often in pointless one liners. (In other words, the classic 'Look at me, I'm contributing!' play.)

He has not once "made" a case, instead just drifting along with whatever is popular, since apparently his inscrutable skepticism doesn't extend to bandwagons. Other than this, a good 90% of his contribution could easily be replaced with a "No" button. With such gems as "Why don't YOU do a votecount", "There's the door", and "Read the thread or GTFO".

Most damning however is his supposed role: "Bullet Bill" (Or as most of us know it Gunsmith).

Well I think that's enough claims that we may as well commit. Plus I'm mad at the mods for that dead chat thing, so potentially game-breaking mass claim is fine with me. I'm Town Bullet Bill. (For those who don't know, Bullet Bill allows you to investigate one player each night and determine if they are holding a gun.) I investigated IB N1 and pcm N2 and the result came back negative both times. (Note that this result coming up negative alone would not clear someone as scum; according to the mods, I only get a positive result on a member of the mafia if they're the one carrying out the killing action that night.)

So he claims to have investigated PCM, but not have gotten a result because PCM, despite being mafia wasn't "holding" his gun at that second HURR DURR. That literally makes no damn sense what so ever, and it reeks of "hey guys, don't lynch my scum buddy!" and "Hey guys, I know my fake investigation is going to incriminate, so here's an excuse!" (For context, this was at the start of day three, when Streaker said we could kill inactives en masse, including PCM, who was honestly not the biggest scummariner a person would normally go after like Mets claimed he did. Though wouldn't you know it, but he didn't hesitate to pull the "I was right" card right after he was modkilled, despite not actually acting on his lynch at all). Can anyone here guess why a gunsmith knows someone has a gun? ... Guesses? Why would a person who makes guns and sells them happen to know who might have a gun?

This has literally never been a variation of this role. Gunsmith is already a nerfed version of a cop or tracker that can't really tell scum from vigs and cops, the definitely wouldn't have the added problem of the scum in question literally needing to wave their gun around at that exact second! And what, so cops just walk around waving their gun around to investigate people, but poor broke mafiosi had to pool their money for a revolver? Besides that, literally no mod on this site has ever said "Bullet Bill" instead of "Gunsmith", so it's hard to consider that the mods would use such an obscure term.

Beyond that, his role has predictably had no utility, rhyme, or reason to it, and his picks don't match any of the words or cases he says. In other words, typical "safeplay" for a fake role.

Vote Mets

[Ragian]

Starting this day, I agreed that Mets only belittled whatever others said without bringing anything to the table. I think he has changed his play today, however. I might be leaning against him because I am looking suspiciously at Deg too, though.

Nevertheless, I'm not really sure about your thoughts on his role. Half the roles that have flipped so far in this game have been roles I have never seen before. I don't think Mets has called himself a gunsmith. I think that's you doing that. As far as I recall, the name Bullet Bill comes from Super Mario or something like that, right? Why is it that Mets can't be what he says he is?

[benga]

Wing upon his death said we shouldn't lynch easy deg and until rish proves me wrong my vote stays on him.

[Ragian]

Rish's silence is getting to me...

@benga, did you ever consider Deg yesterday?

[the white rose]

yes, but town should have a jailkeeper/roleblocker and nobody has counter claimed.

also i believe he did block wing, why else did he not kill?

my money is on benga being scum, but doesn't seem to be a popular choice, if no one agrees then i will choose between deg and rish.

[benga]

Rish's silence is getting to me...

@benga, did you ever consider Deg yesterday?

yes, but I missed D3 so I have incomplete information, rish was taken as a sure thing, so I went along and trusted him as town
when I saw build upon wing, I backed off, just felt there is too much scum there

yes, but town should have a jailkeeper/roleblocker and nobody has counter claimed.

also i believe he did block wing, why else did he not kill?

my money is on benga being scum, but doesn't seem to be a popular choice, if no one agrees then i will choose between deg and rish.

it's not unpopular, there's you, rizky, aladin and deg lately
if I die, there's scum between you guys for sure

I used gifts given to me the best I could and presented results
you conclusion speak more about you than me

[the white rose]

ah right, its the "i am town and anybody who tries to lynch me must be scum"

given all the evidence, the odds are definitely on you being scum, thats not to say you are definitely scum, just that out of the options you are the most likely

[benga]

ah right, its the "i am town and anybody who tries to lynch me must be scum"

given all the evidence, the odds are definitely on you being scum, thats not to say you are definitely scum, just that out of the options you are the most likely

what evindence?

[Ragian]

ah right, its the "i am town and anybody who tries to lynch me must be scum"

given all the evidence, the odds are definitely on you being scum, thats not to say you are definitely scum, just that out of the options you are the most likely

what evindence?

I was about to ask the same question.

[Ragian]

MOD, could you prod Rish, please?

[the white rose]

hang on, benga claimed the personality module gave him either bulletproof or ninja, he chose bulletproof.

he cop checked you as town on n2, after previously saying that he would only use cop check daytime to eliminate being busdriven. had this been a day check i would have accepted it.

the question is why did benga do his check at night time, the only possible reason is so that if we lynched ragian and he flipped scum he could claim that his check was busdriven.

the more i think about it the more i think benga is scum and ragian may be his scum buddy and this definer is a clever way for us to lynch 3 townies looking for that 1 scum. if we do that its game over.

there are 3 possibilities for this definer.

1. its genuine and either rish or deg is scum

2. its genuine but benga is scum and he has given us false readings in order to lynch 3 townies.

3. Its fake, in which case ragian is probably scum.

If you were to give each of the above scenarios an equal chance of being scum, then it follows that there was a 33% chance that option 1 is correct.....that 33% is spread out among the 3 suspects, so there is an 11% chance that rish is scum and 11% chance that deg is scum and there was an 11% chance that wing was scum. We know that wing was not scum, but that actually decreases the likliehood that option 1 is the correct option, because if it were then we may have guessed right the first time when lynching wing. therefore it increases the chance of option 2 or 3 being correct, this is the basic rule of probability.

That coupled with benga's explanation that he used his second investigation on N2 instead of D3 because he thought he might be killed in the night, of course if he were killed in the night he would not have been able to give us the result of his investigation anyway....this is made even more curious when you consider he had rag's gift of BP....if he was really fearful for his life, he would have used BP on N2 and then been free to investigate Rag on D3. who uses BP daytime?

[degaston]

Unvote

Going to think more about this.

[rizky_biznezz]

I'm still figuring out my thoughts just checking in for some catch up reading.. As if it wasn't hard enough I have smashed the screen on my phone so it's proving to be extra challenging.. Will get to a comp tomorrow hopefully rish has been back by then too

[AladdinSane]

it's not unpopular, there's you, rizky, aladin and deg lately
if I die, there's scum between you guys for sure

I don't partickly tink you are scum. I meerly pointed out dat if LSU TJ's invenchuns orl werk in a particklar way - by refleckting teh resolt back onto teh user, den you wood be implickated frum yer use of teh glasses on IB.

I don't know if LSU TJ's invenchuns orl werk teh dis way, but if dey do, it helps eggsplain wot IB says teh mods told him about teh 8-borl resolts, given it seemed to give an inackurate reed of Sausage.

[benga]

That coupled with benga's explanation that he used his second investigation on N2 instead of D3 because he thought he might be killed in the night, of course if he were killed in the night he would not have been able to give us the result of his investigation anyway....this is made even more curious when you consider he had rag's gift of BP....if he was really fearful for his life, he would have used BP on N2 and then been free to investigate Rag on D3. who uses BP daytime?

say what?
rag sent gift during night i recevied it during day

and yes I was mistaken about how investigations work, so what? my first time with investigation roll, played it like that cause i thought i would have a chance to use it and report what i know before i die

I can even relate with first 2 conclusions, but why would fake gift automatically be scum, so then lsu is scum too?

and you count your probablities like none of the other people is playing mafia, just the 5 of us??

[the white rose]

it's not unpopular, there's you, rizky, aladin and deg lately
if I die, there's scum between you guys for sure

I don't partickly tink you are scum. I meerly pointed out dat if LSU TJ's invenchuns orl werk in a particklar way - by refleckting teh resolt back onto teh user, den you wood be implickated frum yer use of teh glasses on IB.

I don't know if LSU TJ's invenchuns orl werk teh dis way, but if dey do, it helps eggsplain wot IB says teh mods told him about teh 8-borl resolts, given it seemed to give an inackurate reed of Sausage.

yes, i had forgotten that...there is another reason to think benga scum.

the 8 ball used by ib on sausage, revealed not sausages alignment of non-town, but ib's (the user's) alignment of town

the role identifier thingy that lsu himself used to find storr's role, told him inventor, ie identified the role of the user not the target.

the glasses used to find blood on hands was used by benga on ib and found blood, seems that again the invention returns results of the user not the target, which would mean benga had blood on his hands.

right, i have enough evidence now to vote.

vote benga

[Metsfanmax]

Regarding the "blood on his hands" theory, no one has answered my objection that no one died the night before. So how could anyone have blood on their hands? My theory isn't that it inverted who the glasses looked at, it only inverted the result, namely that since IB didn't have blood on his hands, the glasses showed that he did.

[AladdinSane]

Regarding the "blood on his hands" theory, no one has answered my objection that no one died the night before. So how could anyone have blood on their hands? My theory isn't that it inverted who the glasses looked at, it only inverted the result, namely that since IB didn't have blood on his hands, the glasses showed that he did.

Maybe teh glasses show blud on hands if teh playa has killed eny time in teh game? We need LU TJ to clarify. Orso, if teh mods reely wanted to funk wit out heds, dey cood rule dat enywun who has been on a suckseful linch, partikly of a Townie, has "blud on they're hands". We need to know eggsackly how those glasses werked, to deside on dis.