[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[the white rose]

The last thing we need today is for another nolynch.

so lets cut the crap.

anyone not voting for lynchable candidates will be viewed as scum

in my book, only 2 are lynchable.

benga

or

deg

this is not based on my own thoughts but on the voting pattern of yesterday.

everyone just vote for one of these 2

[PLAYER57832]

Did no t receive item
Was told it was with flavor
Rizky turned out antitown
Nothing has really changed for me

Then I VOTE Rizky

[benga]

Wait then tomorrow, cant do big posts from phone

I didnt use it on lsu, cause i thought it could possibly backfire on me

His inventions are faulty

[degaston]

Did no t receive item
Was told it was with flavor
Rizky turned out antitown
Nothing has really changed for me

Then I VOTE Rizky

PAY ATTENTION!
That was an LSU invention. It either :
1) flipped the result, or
2) acted upon the source instead of the target.
I think it does #2 because it seems that the sweater did that, but there's not enough information to know for sure.
But since most people know that already, if benga is scum, then he would not give out a "town" result no matter what the actual result was.

[Iron Butterfly]

Wait then tomorrow, cant do big posts from phone

I didnt use it on lsu, cause i thought it could possibly backfire on me

His inventions are faulty

In Many ways LSU's death is a blessing in disguise as it puts an end to speculation on his inventions.

How could it possibly "back fire"on you? LSu's inventions already had a history of being questionable so it is not like there was not a precedent already established.

I was questioned about my Town reading on Sausage with the 8 ball and you said I "had blood on my hands" because of the glasses.

How are you defining "back fire"??

[Metsfanmax]

Wait then tomorrow, cant do big posts from phone

I didnt use it on lsu, cause i thought it could possibly backfire on me

His inventions are faulty

But here's the problem -- our working hypothesis has been that LSU's inventions aren't "faulty," they just do the reverse of what they intended. This is consistent with him flipping insane inventor. So probably you cleared rizky instead of him being anti-town.

For me the reasoning hasn't really changed, so I'm going to vote deg.

[Metsfanmax]

Did no t receive item
Was told it was with flavor
Rizky turned out antitown
Nothing has really changed for me

Then I VOTE Rizky

PAY ATTENTION!
That was an LSU invention. It either :
1) flipped the result, or
2) acted upon the source instead of the target.
I think it does #2 because it seems that the sweater did that, but there's not enough information to know for sure.
But since most people know that already, if benga is scum, then he would not give out a "town" result no matter what the actual result was.

Super flawed reasoning. The only data point consistent with #2 is the sweater, but note that the sweat is also consistent with #1, at least for a broad enough definition of "flipped" or "reversed" the result. Also, #1 being the answer is the only possible explanation for the investigation on IB if we assume he is town, at least other than the explanation that benga is scum and lying.

[Ragian]

Well played, scum. They nightkilled LSU and blocked me (knowing that my shit works, they prolly feared that I would be protected; or they feared that killing me off would show everyone that my shit works). If Benga were scum, scum should've nk'ed me. Because if Benga were scum, he would have offered us three town to pick from and then they would've nk'ed me to show that my shit works and secure a lynching of three townies.

Now, I will hunt everyone as scum if they question my inventions now that we know LSU to be insane. Marashu was town insane cop and PT was town cop. I.e. if Benga has used my invention properly, there's scum between Rish and Deg. I'm still leaning Deg, but there's no way Deg and Rish can't be voting each other now.

@TWR, I need you to see what I see.

[Metsfanmax]

You do realize that you're the one who stopped the lynch, right? If you had not fought against us lynching you, then we wouldn't be in the situation we're in right now.

Yes, I realize that. Are you saying that a townie shouldn't fight against being lynched? I should have just given up, like benga:

vote me and end this shit
game over soon anyway

Yes, I am advocating that you should have just "given up," given that the alternative was a no-lynch. Being part of town means playing as a member of a team. It's not about whether you live or die, it's about whether town wins. Your actions resulted in us advancing a day and losing a key power role but being not much closer to an answer on the fundamental issue before us. As to the assertion that you have unique knowledge that your town, well, that's not helpful to anyone else. We're all going to say we're town. The way to prove it is to take actions that are beneficial to town, not just to merely say it.

[degaston]

Super flawed reasoning. The only data point consistent with #2 is the sweater, but note that the sweat is also consistent with #1, at least for a broad enough definition of "flipped" or "reversed" the result.

That's a stretch, but as I said, there's not enough information to know for sure.

Also, #1 being the answer is the only possible explanation for the investigation on IB if we assume he is town, at least other than the explanation that benga is scum and lying.

How is #1 the the only possible explanation? If the investigation of IB flipped the result, then IB does not have blood on his hands. If it flipped the source and the target, then benga does have blood on his hands. Neither one can be disproved right now. Your reasoning is "super flawed". Don't even try to use his last result as an indication of anything. We already knew that the results might be flipped at that point.

But if benga is town and I am scum, as you say, and if LSU's inventions flip the result, as you say, then why didn't he just solve the whole problem by investigating me last night? Wouldn't I have been the obvious choice? If his result was anti-town, then the flipped result means that I am town, benga could have reported this and you would have to believe him, wouldn't you? Then we could lynch rish and see if you're right. If rish flips town, then you would know that LSU's inventions swap the source and target, and therefore benga is scum because the glasses reported that he had blood on his hands. If rish flips scum, then benga and I are town.

If his result was that I was town, then flipping the result would mean I am scum (if he's telling the truth). You then lynch me, and when I flip town, you would know that benga is scum because either he lied about me, or the result was actually about himself. If I flipped scum, then benga and rish are proven town.

Investigating rizky did not help town at all, and there was absolutely no reason for it. As you say, the way to prove he is town is to take actions that are beneficial to town. Benga has not been doing that.

Vote benga

[Metsfanmax]

Super flawed reasoning. The only data point consistent with #2 is the sweater, but note that the sweat is also consistent with #1, at least for a broad enough definition of "flipped" or "reversed" the result.

That's a stretch, but as I said, there's not enough information to know for sure.

It's not much of a stretch. If we accept the theory that the result is that the outcome is flipped, what else can you do if your invention is a sweater that reveals the role of the person wearing it? There's no way to "reverse" a person's role; there is no opposite of cop or doctor. The only logical way to reverse the result is to reverse the target.

The alternative is that we accept that it reverses the target all the time, and both of benga's actions really were saying that he is mafia. But if that's the case then his reported investigation last night doesn't make any sense. benga would know from reading the thread that some people suspect that LSU's inventions flipped the target, not the result. So if he's scum and knows that this is going on, why would he report a result that is more damning to him under that lens? Why wouldn't he take advantage of this and say that rizky came back town, to confuse us? His openness in the face of your accusations is one of the key reasons I think he is town.

But if benga is town and I am scum, as you say, and if LSU's inventions flip the result, as you say, then why didn't he just solve the whole problem by investigating me last night? Wouldn't I have been the obvious choice? If his result was anti-town, then the flipped result means that I am town, benga could have reported this and you would have to believe him, wouldn't you? Then we could lynch rish and see if you're right. If rish flips town, then you would know that LSU's inventions swap the source and target, and therefore benga is scum because the glasses reported that he had blood on his hands. If rish flips scum, then benga and I are town.

Yes, I agree that investigating you or rish would have solved some of these problems. On the other hand I can see why he wouldn't do it; if he believes his alignment definer, then why would he waste an investigation on the two of you when there are other people we have zero information on? Now we have an additional cleared person (which really does help in the long run).

[Metsfanmax]

@rish: we need to know who you jailed last night. Are you the one that blocked Ragian?

Oh, since I'm demanding that, I should say I investigated benga last night, for reasons similar to what deg was arguing. No gun.

[Iron Butterfly]

You do realize that you're the one who stopped the lynch, right? If you had not fought against us lynching you, then we wouldn't be in the situation we're in right now.

Yes, I realize that. Are you saying that a townie shouldn't fight against being lynched? I should have just given up, like benga:

vote me and end this shit
game over soon anyway

Yes, I am advocating that you should have just "given up," given that the alternative was a no-lynch. Being part of town means playing as a member of a team. It's not about whether you live or die, it's about whether town wins. Your actions resulted in us advancing a day and losing a key power role but being not much closer to an answer on the fundamental issue before us. As to the assertion that you have unique knowledge that your town, well, that's not helpful to anyone else. We're all going to say we're town. The way to prove it is to take actions that are beneficial to town, not just to merely say it.

He was a key power role only in hindsight.

Your strategy is wrong considering the dynamics of where we are in the game.

[degaston]

He was a key power role only in hindsight.

Your strategy is wrong considering the dynamics of where we are in the game.

Sorry, I don't understand what you're saying here.
Who was a key power?
Who's strategy is wrong?

[Metsfanmax]

You do realize that you're the one who stopped the lynch, right? If you had not fought against us lynching you, then we wouldn't be in the situation we're in right now.

Yes, I realize that. Are you saying that a townie shouldn't fight against being lynched? I should have just given up, like benga:

vote me and end this shit
game over soon anyway

Yes, I am advocating that you should have just "given up," given that the alternative was a no-lynch. Being part of town means playing as a member of a team. It's not about whether you live or die, it's about whether town wins. Your actions resulted in us advancing a day and losing a key power role but being not much closer to an answer on the fundamental issue before us. As to the assertion that you have unique knowledge that your town, well, that's not helpful to anyone else. We're all going to say we're town. The way to prove it is to take actions that are beneficial to town, not just to merely say it.

He was a key power role only in hindsight.

Not to me. It's been obvious to me for a while that LSU was an insane inventor, which makes him just as useful as a normal inventor once you understand that.

Your strategy is wrong considering the dynamics of where we are in the game.

You too also said that we should look hard at people who were responsible for the no-lynch...

[degaston]

You too also said that we should look hard at people who were responsible for the no-lynch...

Like benga?

[Metsfanmax]

You too also said that we should look hard at people who were responsible for the no-lynch...

Like benga?

Sure, it's concerning to me that benga didn't help lynch you when we had the chance. But that's a factor to be weighed against everything else, not the only factor.

[AladdinSane]

Well played, scum. They nightkilled LSU and blocked me (knowing that my shit works, they prolly feared that I would be protected; or they feared that killing me off would show everyone that my shit works). If Benga were scum, scum should've nk'ed me. Because if Benga were scum, he would have offered us three town to pick from and then they would've nk'ed me to show that my shit works and secure a lynching of three townies.

I'm ackshually slitely moor suspishus of you now dat teh flow of yer invenchuns seems to have dried up. N4 you conveenyently dident get back in time to make an invenchun, and now N5 you say you were blokked? Maybe, but maybe orso you did make an invenchun on N4 and sent it to Storr and it killed him. After orl, we still don't know why he died - it's not tied to Marashu's deth, becorse if it was, Storr wood have died overnite wit Marashu - their's no eggsplanashun fer his "delayed reackshun" deth. And sumwn sed dat teh mods have banned daytime use of invenchuns becorse of sumtink sumwun did. So I will be verry innerested to see if we have a misterius daytime deth today. And, after orl, you have awreddy claimed to have made an invenchun dat cood have killed teh recipient (i.e. teh gun).

Teh other benefit to you, of corse, frum not owning up to eny moor invenchuns, is dat we don't get eny moor data on weather yer invenchuns werk. Like i say, conveenyent.

Orso, how do you know you were blokked? Did you try to send sumtink out and got a msg frum teh Mods dat you coodent send it? Sumtink like dat? Does dat meen you can use it yoreself? LSU TJ' was abul to use his swetter hisself by sending it to Storr, so I dont see why you coodent use yer own invenchun orso. Or are you saying you were blokked frum even making sumtink?

Now, I will hunt everyone as scum if they question my inventions now that we know LSU to be insane. Marashu was town insane cop and PT was town cop. I.e. if Benga has used my invention properly, there's scum between Rish and Deg. I'm still leaning Deg, but there's no way Deg and Rish can't be voting each other now.

How does LSU's deth change enytink? Are you saying their must be sum kind of simmetry between teh cop disposishun and teh inventer disposishun? Why? Teh Mods' goal wood have been game balense, not role simetry. Ackshually, LSU TJ's deth does chamge wun ting: A cupple peepul have sed dey dont tink both inventers are Town - now dat LSU TJ is def Town, I wunder wot dey are tinking about you.

If you are scum inventer, you cood have sent a defecktive alinement indikator to a Town Benga, who cood den have faithfully reported teh resolts. Becorse of teh wurry over weather a scum inventer cood send invenchuns to scum, I dont tink you are BOTH scum. But its qwite possibul either wun of you is. He is a linch target over you, tho, becorse of yer roll, but you are sertanly not cleered yet, in my book.

[AladdinSane]

The last thing we need today is for another nolynch.

so lets cut the crap.

anyone not voting for lynchable candidates will be viewed as scum

in my book, only 2 are lynchable.

benga

or

deg

this is not based on my own thoughts but on the voting pattern of yesterday.

everyone just vote for one of these 2

I tink you have teh rite aproach, but shorely Rish is a valid linch target? I'm not inclined to vote fer him myself but I woodent see it as scummy if sumwun did. After orl, he was named by teh alinement indickator, and their are kwestjuns over his jailing choises. I tink we need to see wot Rish has to say about who he jailed last nite, and why.

Teh way I see it is dis:

Ragian's invenchuns werk, or not. If not, cood be becorse he is scum, or simply useless. I tink teh former wood be mutch moor likely.

If Ragian's invenchuns DO werk, dey cood be reported faithfuly by Benga, or not. If so, den Benga is Town; if not, den Benga is scum.

If Ragian's invenchuns werk AND Benga reported teh resolts faithfully, den either Deg or Rish is scum. Like I sed erlier I'm leening Deg 60-40. Will perhaps revise dat after we heer frum Rish.

So, orl 4 are in teh frame. In teh absense of ferther infermashun frum new invenchuns, witch it looks like we prob now wont get today, linch order at dis point shood prob be based on (1) importants of claimed rolls (i.e. Benga or Deg have less importent rolls so, orl else been ekwal, we shood linch dem firt), and (2) how neer dey are to teh hed of the infermashun chain (i.e. Ragian -> Benga -> Deg/Rish. Ragian is at teh hed of teh chain but is potenshally useful fer Town, so Benga is next). Both considerashuns taken together point to a Benga linch, I tink.

[degaston]

It's not much of a stretch. If we accept the theory that the result is that the outcome is flipped, [Why should we accept that theory? We have one confirmed case of the target of an invention being reversed, and no confirmed cases of the result being flipped.] what else can you do if your invention is a sweater that reveals the role of the person wearing it? There's no way to "reverse" a person's role; there is no opposite of cop or doctor. The only logical way to reverse the result is to reverse the target.

And what do you do if the invention is a gun? What is the opposite of shooting someone? What is the opposite of jailing them? Or redirecting them? There is absolutely no evidence that the invention results were flipped, so there is no reason to accept your theory. That does not prove my theory correct either, but mine at least has more evidence to support it.

The alternative is that we accept that it reverses the target all the time, and both of benga's actions really were saying that he is mafia. But if that's the case then his reported investigation last night doesn't make any sense. benga would know from reading the thread that some people suspect that LSU's inventions flipped the target, not the result. So if he's scum and knows that this is going on, why would he report a result that is more damning to him under that lens? Why wouldn't he take advantage of this and say that rizky came back town, to confuse us? His openness in the face of your accusations is one of the key reasons I think he is town.

Let's see what Metsfanmax had to say about this type of analysis:

That's the problem with WIFOM as applied to yourself -- you obviously can anticipate these objections, since you came up with them by yourself. So you would also know how to avoid them.

But if benga is town and I am scum, as you say, and if LSU's inventions flip the result, as you say, then why didn't he just solve the whole problem by investigating me last night? Wouldn't I have been the obvious choice? If his result was anti-town, then the flipped result means that I am town, benga could have reported this and you would have to believe him, wouldn't you? Then we could lynch rish and see if you're right. If rish flips town, then you would know that LSU's inventions swap the source and target, and therefore benga is scum because the glasses reported that he had blood on his hands. If rish flips scum, then benga and I are town.

Yes, I agree that investigating you or rish would have solved some of these problems. On the other hand I can see why he wouldn't do it; if he believes his alignment definer, then why would he waste an investigation on the two of you when there are other people we have zero information on?

This is complete crap. Investigating rizky did nothing but leave us in the dark. If he had investigated me, then no matter what he reported, or who we lynched (of benga, rish and me), even if we have a mislynch today, we would be guaranteed to lynch scum tomorrow. And if he is town, and LSU's inventions work as you think, then we would have been guaranteed to get a correct lynch today. As it stands, we have no more information to help choose our lynch today, and if we mislynch, then we will have no idea who to go after tomorrow. He could have been incredibly helpful. Instead, he was useless. The only thing he did accomplish was to make his death even more useful to town because it may also help to confirm rizky's alignment.

Now we have an additional cleared person (which really does help in the long run).

Who are you talking about? It can't be LSU, because there is no way his death can be considered helpful. It can't be rizky because he is not cleared by any stretch of the imagination. So who is it that is now cleared?

[AladdinSane]

Investigating rizky did not help town at all, and there was absolutely no reason for it. As you say, the way to prove he is town is to take actions that are beneficial to town. Benga has not been doing that.

Yes, I agree that investigating you or rish would have solved some of these problems. On the other hand I can see why he wouldn't do it; if he believes his alignment definer, then why would he waste an investigation on the two of you when there are other people we have zero information on? Now we have an additional cleared person (which really does help in the long run).

Okay, so we have Benga using an LSU TJ invenchun to investimagate RB. It reported dat RB is anti-Town. If LSU TJ's invenchuns werk on teh user rather than teh target, den it shows dat Benga is anti-Town and doent say enytink about RB, so Mets is rong to say RB has been cleered. On teh other hand, if they flip resolts, den dis latest wun DOES cleer RB. So, yeh, investimagating RB hasent cleered up teh qwestjun of how LSU TJ's invenchuns werk, witch I took to be teh point of teh eggsersize.

FPed by Deg

[degaston]

Yes, I am advocating that you should have just "given up," given that the alternative was a no-lynch. Being part of town means playing as a member of a team. It's not about whether you live or die, it's about whether town wins. Your actions resulted in us advancing a day and losing a key power role but being not much closer to an answer on the fundamental issue before us.

If I thought that the only choice was between me and a town power role, then I would have been happy to sacrifice myself for the good of the town. But at best, benga is now a vanilla townie who's death would provide much more useful information to town than mine would. At worst, he's scum. There's no way I'm going to "give up" for that.

As to the assertion that you have unique knowledge that your town, well, that's not helpful to anyone else. We're all going to say we're town. The way to prove it is to take actions that are beneficial to town, not just to merely say it.

My point was not that I know I'm town, it was that if benga is town, then he would not know I was town. If he really had a strong gut feeling that I was town and rish was scum, then he should have said why, and tried to build a case on rish. And if that didn't work, then he probably should have switched his vote to me to avoid a no-lynch. And if that didn't work, then he should have used his investigation to prove or disprove his opinion about me - at least to himself. And as you previously said:

There are things you he could have done that are legitimately pro-town that would make it much more likely that you are he is actually town than mafia, but you he didn't do any of them.

When you tried to use this against me, you were unable to name a single thing that I could have done that would have convinced you I was town. I've named three things, (though the 2nd one doesn't count for much) but I'm sure they won't convince you.

[Metsfanmax]

It's not much of a stretch. If we accept the theory that the result is that the outcome is flipped, [Why should we accept that theory? We have one confirmed case of the target of an invention being reversed, and no confirmed cases of the result being flipped.] what else can you do if your invention is a sweater that reveals the role of the person wearing it? There's no way to "reverse" a person's role; there is no opposite of cop or doctor. The only logical way to reverse the result is to reverse the target.

And what do you do if the invention is a gun? What is the opposite of shooting someone? What is the opposite of jailing them? Or redirecting them? There is absolutely no evidence that the invention results were flipped, so there is no reason to accept your theory. That does not prove my theory correct either, but mine at least has more evidence to support it.

Your theory can't be used if we don't have a full understanding of what it means to reverse an invention. Who is the 'source' of the invention and who is the 'target' in your scheme? If the 'source' is LSU then your theory actually predicts that the result is always a result about LSU and not about the intended target. And aside from the obvious stupidity of having such a mechanic in the game, it's flatly contradicted by the differing results between the 8-ball and the blood test kit. If the 'source' is the person who holds the item and the 'target' is who they tried to use it on, then Storr is the source and there is no target because the sweater is a target-less item. So there's no mechanism for the sweater saying something about LSU. If Storr is both the source and the target, it still doesn't explain how LSU's role gets dragged into this.

So this insanity mechanic is more complicated and/or different than merely flipping the source and the target, because some inventions don't have an obvious choice for source and/or target.

The alternative is that we accept that it reverses the target all the time, and both of benga's actions really were saying that he is mafia. But if that's the case then his reported investigation last night doesn't make any sense. benga would know from reading the thread that some people suspect that LSU's inventions flipped the target, not the result. So if he's scum and knows that this is going on, why would he report a result that is more damning to him under that lens? Why wouldn't he take advantage of this and say that rizky came back town, to confuse us? His openness in the face of your accusations is one of the key reasons I think he is town.

Let's see what Metsfanmax had to say about this type of analysis:

That's the problem with WIFOM as applied to yourself -- you obviously can anticipate these objections, since you came up with them by yourself. So you would also know how to avoid them.

Sure. I am honest enough to admit that there are multiple explanations for what has happened in the game. I could be wrong about benga's alignment, and he could be doing some higher-order meta-level thinking to try out outwit us. You, however, do not seem to even attempt to analyze any of this. Note how you provide no actual counter-argument to what I have suggested, you just tried a 'gotcha' maneuver. Which really speaks for itself.

]This is complete crap. Investigating rizky did nothing but leave us in the dark. If he had investigated me, then no matter what he reported, or who we lynched (of benga, rish and me), even if we have a mislynch today, we would be guaranteed to lynch scum tomorrow.

But if we don't know how the insanity mechanic works, or if it works the way you say, then this falls apart. We can lynch benga and if he flips town, we still won't be certain how LSU's inventions work. Without fully understanding the insanity mechanic from other evidence, we might not ever know that for sure. Suppose benga is town, first. He could have investigated you or investigated rish; doesn't matter which for the thought experiment. Suppose he investigates you and you are town. Under your theory, the investigation turns up town because benga is town. Under my theory, the investigation turns up scum because you are town. Without any further information we don't know how to choose between you and rish for the lynch, and so it is false that we are guaranteed a scum lynch tomorrow. The invention gives us no useful information until we have lynched at least two of you; possibly, it never gives us useful information. This is true even if we are certain you are correct about the insanity mechanic, because then the inventions only ever said something about benga, not about you or rish.

If we consider this from the perspective of my theory, then I think you are correct that it would have guaranteed us at least one scum lynch between today and tomorrow. But is it alignment indicative that benga didn't come to this conclusion? Obviously multiple people have differing interpretations of LSU's inventions, so who knows how he was thinking about it. And maybe he just didn't have the time or brainpower to think it through carefully.

The only thing he did accomplish was to make his death even more useful to town because it may also help to confirm rizky's alignment.

Actually, I agree with that, and that's what I meant by rizky being cleared. Whatever benga flips, it's a good bet that rizky is the same alignment if I am correct about the nature of the insanity mechanic. Does that sound like something scum would do?

[Metsfanmax]

If he really had a strong gut feeling that I was town and rish was scum, then he should have said why, and tried to build a case on rish.

I don't think he said that he had a "strong gut feeling" that you are town. What he did do was to say that he thinks rish is scum because of who he jailed (which you know) and then voted rish. That's basically what you said he should do. His case was kind of weak, sure, but that doesn't make him scum.

And if that didn't work, then he probably should have switched his vote to me to avoid a no-lynch.

I do agree that he should have voted you over a no-lynch yesterday, but he might not necessarily agree that a mislynch is better than a no-lynch, which is not necessarily alignment-indicative.

Furthermore the only way to conclude that it was scummy for him not to vote for a lynch is if you already believe the alignment definer was correct, which presupposes that he is town. That is, he should only feel pressure to vote for a deg lynch in the scenario where he is town and believes the alignment definer. So it's not a self-consistent stance to then try to indict him as scum for not following it, because if he is scum, then he probably made up the alignment definer results, and he would have no reason to abide by them. So your argument is basically circular.

[Metsfanmax]

deg, one you think you could do if you really believe your case that benga is scum, is to precommit that you will allow us to lynch you first over rish, if benga flips town, and precommit that you'll vote for yourself in this scenario too. If you push for a benga lynch and he flips town that doesn't prove you are scum, but it certainly updates our belief in that direction, and there remains no plausible argument that rish is a better lynch than you.