Soaps Role Madness! Town Wins!

[Loose Canon]

Both probably

[degaston]

Pix,swang,dega,PMC:

Wonder where each of you stand on whether I should make a claim now?

Sorry dev and Kong you are self confessed noobish (as am I) so for this deliberation not including you guys in this straw poll.

This is not a random wagon based on joke comments. Vot made an accusation based on an investigation, and you were at L-2, so I think you need to claim. I'm not sure I 100% buy strike's reason for unvoting, but I assume we could find someone willing to put you at L-2 again.

[kongming3]

I don't like this wishy-washy I promise I'm not scum stalling. You have every reason to try and lie and sow confusion and claim there's some obscure line of logic where you're actually good now that our brave cop has unmasked the villain behind the cannon. I won't claim I fully understand the limits of what's possible for roles to do, but if you truly are town you need to cooperate and give up any useful information you have before you die. Unless someone else brings actual evidence that something is amiss here, I strongly believe we should ensure we get the lynch off today. Townsfolk are dying at a rapid pace and it seems foolish to get filibustered again in a mess of speculative nonsense and not act on the only concrete information we have so far before it's too late.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I don't like this wishy-washy I promise I'm not scum stalling. You have every reason to try and lie and sow confusion and claim there's some obscure line of logic where you're actually good now that our brave cop has unmasked the villain behind the cannon. I won't claim I fully understand the limits of what's possible for roles to do, but if you truly are town you need to cooperate and give up any useful information you have before you die. Unless someone else brings actual evidence that something is amiss here, I strongly believe we should ensure we get the lynch off today. Townsfolk are dying at a rapid pace and it seems foolish to get filibustered again in a mess of speculative nonsense and not act on the only concrete information we have so far before it's too late.

I absolutelly agree. If LC is nto scum he should say all he know, otherwise we should proceed to lynch him. i dont want to rush things as some townies have died in the past for rushing votes. But we wont go to the end of the day withouth a lynch

[Loose Canon]

Even so I'm gonna wait 24 hours real time.

I want to hear what the 4 players I named think I should do before I claim, at least.

[fusibaseball]

Vote LC

Not only is Vot's declaration of being a cop almost guaranteed town-alignment, the rest of his post mirrors what I was thinking myself.
-Pixar's assumptions from DDS' writing don't make sense. Being shot moreso implies Vigilante/mafia, while being stabbed repeatedly seems more serial killer to me. I doubt we would have serial killer + arsonist in one game, though, so TBD on this
-Strike is self-declaring a role without explicitly saying so which is highly town-correlated. I don't really care what his Drunkard role does, as long as I know its alignment. He's skilled enough that I wouldn't put it past him to feign it for town cred but it's just a lot of effort to do that (and unnecessary effort)

LC's stalling is most likely him coming up with the most plausible defense given his being caught off guard. PMC was doing the same thing last game by being very quiet when I started FOS'ing him as Bus Driver and Ewe + Dev. just completely ignored that. Stalling is guilty by association. STALLING IS DIRECTLY GUILTY BY ASSOCIATION.

[*Pixar*]

I believe Vot, but also want to hear what LC has to say

Vote LC

[*Pixar*]

Oops I got fast posted

Unvote

[pmchugh]

Even so I'm gonna wait 24 hours real time.

I want to hear what the 4 players I named think I should do before I claim, at least.

You should definitely be claiming as you will be dying otherwise. In fact, you are probably dying regardless.

I will await your claim before saying more on it.

Strike now seems to have a post restriction or a healthy supply of booze, but I don't view that as alignment indicative on day 2 as it could be a night action to intoxicate him.

Rag is an interesting mafia kill, scum is probably stacked. Stabbed definitely seems more serial killer. Shot could be vigilante but no way vigilante targets rag last night.

[Loose Canon]

I'm a fall guy guys.

And I think you won't know that I'm town until the end of the game if you do lynch me!

[Ragian]

Curses!

I was even having fun with it, making a tiny joke about there being an arsonist D1. Avenge me, no one!

[pmchugh]

I'm not really surprised by Vots result on me.

I need to ponder on whether there is more advantage to town, if I say more or not. It might be it makes no difference but I have a line of logic that says maybe slightly better not to, so for now that's all I'm saying.

Can you explain this line of logic?

[Charle]

Booo!!! So I was flirting with Ragian, thought I was playing it real cool, turns out I am totally transparant

So now I am just sitting here drinking my evaporated milk thinking by myself how I will ever be able to father a child with this hollow-weenie!

[pmchugh]

Nothing is happening here. We will go into N1 with no information apart from Son!c's role

Which is part of my argument why some (non Vanilla) claim by Town might be advantageous to Town D1.

Lets say Town is divided;

1. Powerful roles
2. Roles with limited power (not Vanilla but probably not much of one)
3. Vanilla roles

A claim by one 2 player would give Town someone to coalesce around, but still leave Scum with as equal a probability of night actions hitting 3. Vanilla as 1. Power
(I find it hard to believe that Scum would offer a Day1 false claim for nothing - although I do now wonder if Kongs apparent offer is a scum bluff)
(Kong could be Noob, Noobish as he says, or somewhere approaching International Grandmaster - for now I do take him at his word as Noobish. But as for whether he is Town, Scum or 3P , I now have no inkling)

As things stand I find it hard to believe any Town player has gained anything from D1.

Its something to discuss in a future game perhaps.

I too don't want to see Kong make a claim D1 now though - it is too late in the day for there to be any advantage to Town, if anyone agrees with my contention at all.

In your list of 3 roles, you missed your own role. One that is worse than vanilla. Why?

When you were talking about someone claiming, were you considering claiming yourself?

[pmchugh]

And for vot, why did you investigate LC?

[Loose Canon]

I'm not really surprised by Vots result on me.

I need to ponder on whether there is more advantage to town, if I say more or not. It might be it makes no difference but I have a line of logic that says maybe slightly better not to, so for now that's all I'm saying.

Can you explain this line of logic?

To draw out comments and reactions from players so they might be assessed

And yes I did consider claiming D1 but from what I remember probably not so much so at the point of when I made the argument you quoted.

[pmchugh]

Rereading strikes posts though, I don't actually see him saying much of anything until that last comment. What is wrong with Loose jumping on that feeling and voting? It's early days and if you are wolf, you wouldn't be thinking, oh here is a great chance to mislynch someone based on my one as of yet unreasoned comment. So why wouldn't you like it? Feels like scum faking town reasoning, rather than genuine experienced town player reasoning.

You gave no reason for your vote and Loose jumped on it quickly when you stated you had a reason for the vote. He's either too eager and needs a reminder that he should think out his own votes or he took it as a queue that it was time to vote. It's not worth a vote at the moment but it's interesting in a game that too this point was mostly joke votes that failed to form a wagon and claim chat that is pretty easy for experienced scum to state the known positions and blend in.

Vot, can you tell me your thoughts after reading these day 1 comments, in light of the new information/claims we have today?

[Votanic]

And for vot, why did you investigate LC?

I decided to investigate LC because I thought he acted the scummiest.... and lo and behold. It's all there out in the open on Day 1...

So anyway, how long are we going to listen to LC melodramatize about the supposed consequences if he dares reveal his (probably totally fake) claim...
I'm sure he's scouring every mafia website right now, trying to come up with something really juicy....

...and now he says we won't know he's "really town" until the end of the game...
In other words, after we lynch him, DDS is just going to tell us he was scum, end of story.

[pmchugh]

Loose already claimed.

He claimed fall guy: https://mafiagg.fandom.com/wiki/Fall_Guy

Basically saying he will appear as mafia in investigations, and even after his death and importantly, this was revealed to mafia at the start of the game.

This might be mad, or confirmation bias and could be totally wrong, but I cant help but explore it. I believe LC is telling the truth. I reckon if you look at strikes day 1, in a world in which LC is a fall guy, strike looks 100% like scum. It perfectly explains his behaviour and his weak reasoning around sussing him.

Loose, what are your feelings on this read? What about others who sussed you, EW/dega comes to mind. Then there is vot, I feel like vot is in on it through vibes but probably not, giving mafia a fall guy and a safe fake cope claim would be wildly over powered.

[Votanic]

Loose already claimed.

He claimed fall guy: https://mafiagg.fandom.com/wiki/Fall_Guy

Basically saying he will appear as mafia in investigations, and even after his death and importantly, this was revealed to mafia at the start of the game.

This might be mad, or confirmation bias and could be totally wrong, but I cant help but explore it. I believe LC is telling the truth. I reckon if you look at strikes day 1, in a world in which LC is a fall guy, strike looks 100% like scum. It perfectly explains his behaviour and his weak reasoning around sussing him.

Loose, what are your feelings on this read? What about others who sussed you, EW/dega comes to mind. Then there is vot, I feel like vot is in on it through vibes but probably not, giving mafia a fall guy and a safe fake cope claim would be wildly over powered.

Woah. Hold on a full minute, PMC.

First of all, if that was a claim by LC, it was done in an underhanded blink-and-miss-it way.... but I find it very interesting that you immediately jumped to the conclusion that it was a claim.

Secondly, according the role definition that you just linked to, a mafia Fall Guy is supposed to think he is town... so how does LC even know he has this role?

Furthermore, as I'm sure you recall, I actually found both you and LC to be acting scummy on Day 1... as did Ragian, who is no longer with us.
True, Ragian was third-party, but that doesn't mean he couldn't still sniff out scum... and get himself offed by scum for saying so...

[*Pixar*]

That's a really good role to claim real or not. My thinking is we take the chance on the lynch, if I'm reading this right Scum knows his role so chances of him being night killed is 0 to none. So, the only way we do find out is by day lynch. I find it odd that it did take LC awhile to claim after immediately being called out...

[pmchugh]

Loose already claimed.

He claimed fall guy: https://mafiagg.fandom.com/wiki/Fall_Guy

Basically saying he will appear as mafia in investigations, and even after his death and importantly, this was revealed to mafia at the start of the game.

This might be mad, or confirmation bias and could be totally wrong, but I cant help but explore it. I believe LC is telling the truth. I reckon if you look at strikes day 1, in a world in which LC is a fall guy, strike looks 100% like scum. It perfectly explains his behaviour and his weak reasoning around sussing him.

Loose, what are your feelings on this read? What about others who sussed you, EW/dega comes to mind. Then there is vot, I feel like vot is in on it through vibes but probably not, giving mafia a fall guy and a safe fake cope claim would be wildly over powered.

Woah. Hold on a full minute, PMC.

First of all, if that was a claim by LC, it was done in an underhanded blink-and-miss-it way.... but I find it very interesting that you immediately jumped to the conclusion that it was a claim.

Secondly, according the role definition that you just linked to, a mafia Fall Guy is supposed to think he is town... so how does LC even know he has this role?

Furthermore, as I'm sure you recall, I actually found both you and LC to be acting scummy on Day 1... as did Ragian, who is no longer with us.
True, Ragian was third-party, but that doesn't mean he couldn't still sniff out scum... and get himself offed by scum for saying so...

I believe he is (claiming) town, he knows he is town, he knows he is a fall guy, but he appears as mafia to all of us even after he dies. So even after we lynch him, he will appear to be mafia even if he is town, we likely won't know.

He did do it a bit low key, and didn't explain what it was well. Like, one thing giving me pause is why loose wasn't already jumping over anyone suspicious of him.

As for the ragian murder, it makes perfect sense in a strike wolf mafia, Loose fall guy world, as it sets up a long term kill of me, mafia wouldn't have known he was 3rd party and were trying to hit an innocent who accused me, and after loose gets lynched as mafia you can probably have me lynched by associations. This is preferable to them killing me because I was already on to strike and I was getting heat from town, if I were killed it would look bad for them.

I am not saying all of the above is true necessarily, but its logically consistent and I am currently finding it compelling.

[degaston]

Woah. Hold on a full minute, PMC.

First of all, if that was a claim by LC, it was done in an underhanded blink-and-miss-it way.... but I find it very interesting that you immediately jumped to the conclusion that it was a claim.

How do you think that this:

I'm a fall guy guys.

And I think you won't know that I'm town until the end of the game if you do lynch me!

... is "underhanded" or "blink-and-miss-it"?
(I'm not saying I necessarily believe it, but it's not hidden.)

Secondly, according the role definition that you just linked to, a mafia Fall Guy is supposed to think he is town... so how does LC even know he has this role

It would be a completely bastard move for DDS not to tell him his role. If he was just told that he was a Vanilla Townie, then how would he have any explanation for a cop investigation coming back as mafia?

I'm not sure that it matters, though, since even if we lynch him, we apparently won't know the truth until the game is over.

[degaston]

That's a really good role to claim real or not. My thinking is we take the chance on the lynch, if I'm reading this right Scum knows his role so chances of him being night killed is 0 to none. So, the only way we do find out is by day lynch. I find it odd that it did take LC awhile to claim after immediately being called out...

Apparently, we may not find out even then.
From mafia.gg: "Upon being condemned, revealed as a Mafia"

Since it appears we had two 3rd parties, I would assume 3 scum and 9 town. So if we kill 3 scum and the game's not over, then that would indicate that LC was town.
But it's up to DDS what is revealed.

[fusibaseball]

I don't understand. The website says this role sees himself as Villager.

Why are we saying that Loose will be explicitly told he is this role if he's supposed to see himself as Villager?