The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Wolves win

[Maxleod]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

[*Pixar*]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

Not a bad plan but can Swang use his power on a barkeep? And if we are wrong about Loose and he comes back town and Swang dies as town as well, could be a terrible day for us. But definitely something to think about doing

[SoN!c]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

It sounds like this:

Whuuts uuuppp awesome posuum - That mask on, the mask off, i'm bouncing out for that BBW Catey body, bbw big body
We're strapped up, got 40 Cals, got Glock 9s, and Loose Bar Shotties
Hit ya hood, then ya hood, the double-back for them BBW moobs homi homi
That always been the plan been the plan cause imma get them both homi - Posssuuuuuummm!!!


Just 2 maybye 3 wolves left Max. Big chance your drive by shooting is gonna kill some homies. Or the Elder

[SoN!c]

The Elder Card that is.

[fusibaseball]

Seems like Votanic and Sonic have read up on the roles the most, but I guess I'm asking everyone...are there any 3rd party/scum roles in this setup that can return Town results on a confession? Traf's link to the setup roles on his homepage doesn't pull up anything for me (https://world-of-board-games.com.sg/doc ... s-Pact.pdf) and I'd like an agreed-upon list that everyone can look at.

[SoN!c]

Seems like Votanic and Sonic have read up on the roles the most, but I guess I'm asking everyone...are there any 3rd party/scum roles in this setup that can return Town results on a confession? Traf's link to the setup roles on his homepage doesn't pull up anything for me (https://world-of-board-games.com.sg/doc ... s-Pact.pdf) and I'd like an agreed-upon list that everyone can look at.

No the confession result is 100%. But the mod gives the result only to the player. The player could be wolf / 3P.

So im thinking your thinking 3 wolves Strike, Vot and EW made up a mastermind plan? I don't think so but theoretical possible yes.

Also everybody has a secret role in here - me included - so im not plain vanilla.

But Loose asked for breadcrumbs so i gave him a breadcrumb..

I think we need to stick to your plan and let town night powers do their job first.

[fusibaseball]

Ok, so you're saying there's no possible role in this game that can return a Town result on Confession investigation that is not Town-aligned? Is a Confession a higher "tier" than like a regular Cop investigation that can result false negatives?

And you're saying that nobody is Vanilla in this game...so do you think Vot has knowledge of EW's non-Vanilla result but is keeping it to himself? The Confession result relayed to us was a Vanilla Townie.

[Maxleod]

Ok, so you're saying there's no possible role in this game that can return a Town result on Confession investigation that is not Town-aligned? Is a Confession a higher "tier" than like a regular Cop investigation that can result false negatives?

And you're saying that nobody is Vanilla in this game...so do you think Vot has knowledge of EW's non-Vanilla result but is keeping it to himself? The Confession result relayed to us was a Vanilla Townie.

Everybody has a hidden role/power in this game, but maybe Vot just didn't want to reveal EW's, or just doesn't know. The less wolves know the better.

[Extreme Ways]

I didnt mean to put this information out there, but all of you saying that everybody has a secret power is wrong. I do not have a secret power.

[Maxleod]

I didnt mean to put this information out there, but all of you saying that everybody has a secret power is wrong. I do not have a secret power.

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 8#p5309555

Everyone has 2 roles - One hidden and one public - Both were handed at random and any hidden role is compatible with the public role.

At the very least you have hidden role...

[degaston]

Everyone has 2 roles - One hidden and one public - Both were handed at random and any hidden role is compatible with the public role.

At the very least you have hidden role...

That hidden role could be a "Simple Villager". I don't know if Vot received that specifically, but he called him a "Vanilla Townie", which would seem to be the same thing.

Can you confirm what you actually got, Vot?

[Extreme Ways]

Everyone has 2 roles - One hidden and one public - Both were handed at random and any hidden role is compatible with the public role.

At the very least you have hidden role...

That hidden role could be a "Simple Villager". I don't know if Vot received that specifically, but he called him a "Vanilla Townie", which would seem to be the same thing.

Can you confirm what you actually got, Vot?

This is correct, my hidden role is vanilla town or whatever tyou want to call it.

@fusi im spitballing here, but in "over the board" werewolves you have a moderator showing the "hidden role" card to the seer. There's no proof that this is similar, but it's what I'm going to assume.

[Votanic]

Everyone has 2 roles - One hidden and one public - Both were handed at random and any hidden role is compatible with the public role.

At the very least you have hidden role...

That hidden role could be a "Simple Villager". I don't know if Vot received that specifically, but he called him a "Vanilla Townie", which would seem to be the same thing.

Can you confirm what you actually got, Vot?

This is correct, my hidden role is vanilla town or whatever tyou want to call it.

@fusi im spitballing here, but in "over the board" werewolves you have a moderator showing the "hidden role" card to the seer. There's no proof that this is similar, but it's what I'm going to assume.

Yes, since EW admits it. The correct WOMH role name is Simple Villager. I didn't intend to tell roles, but I decided the word 'Vanilla' was both true, and safe to say. This is also something that I did want to share. Before this, I was imagining that all players had something at least slightly non-vanilla as a secret role, but apparently not.

[Loose Canon]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

Not a bad plan but can Swang use his power on a barkeep? And if we are wrong about Loose and he comes back town and Swang dies as town as well, could be a terrible day for us. But definitely something to think about doing

Pixars response to Max's plan readys dodgy to me.
1. The barber role explicitly says the barber cannot use his power on a vagabond. Why would Pixar ask if barber can use power on barkeep - the answer has to be yes - so its starting off with a misleading irrelevancy.
2. Yes its true that a town on town kill would be terrible - obviously.
3. So on what planet are you trying to suggest to Max that its a good idea and to Swang that it is something worth thinking about ?

If all you guys are really worried about is my immunity to being voted out - have a think about a Pixar vote today - it has to make a lot more sense than town going -2 (or the risk of it) because even if Pixar is not a wolf - you only go at worst -1 and you achieve something in your minds by taking away my immunity tomorrow.

I have voted for him today - if you guys vote for him too today I lose my immunity.

Have a read of Pixar and decide whether you think he sounds dodgy. I for one am reading his post above as dodgy.

[Votanic]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

Not a bad plan but can Swang use his power on a barkeep? And if we are wrong about Loose and he comes back town and Swang dies as town as well, could be a terrible day for us. But definitely something to think about doing

I DO NOT like this plan.

First, I am not convinced that LC is a wolf just because of his Day 1 strike defense post. Do you have other reasons/evidence to think so?
So if LC isn't a wolf, we would also lose Swang, who I do think is Town (though it would be so great to confirm that...)

Right now, our best hope is with the power roles: particularly detective/cops (AKA seer/little girl), the Defender, and Swang the Barber.

@ Seer/Cop/whatever: Stay incognito for now, until you do find a wolf. At that point, it might save Town if you then blow your cover and lead a lynch bandwagon on them.
@ Defender: Like I said before, try saving swang tonight. Im not sure you can protect the same player each night, but usually sooner is better than later, if later won't ever come....
@Swang: Yes at some point you probably should use your power. Ultimately you are the final judge of when it is a reasonably safe bet... Town will try to give the best intel .. and also wolves will try to misguide you and make you a night target...
So anyway, what do you think about LC and his odds of being a werewolf?

In the mean time, Town will need to do some 'blind' lynches. These need to be as non-random as possible. Easier said than done.
Low-hanging fruit are often chosen (AKA quiet players and extra-sussy players that are bad townm if not scum).

Who are the extra-sussy players this game? Apparently LC, always Sonic, to some degree DDS (which sucks cause he is Sheriff),...
EW would also have been listed here, but now he is untouchable (However, he has earned a bad townie rep which is meta-bad for him)
Other players that have said some possibly weird, sussy things: fusi (for over-defending DDS), and maxleod (for his LC & Swang plan).

The quietest players are also some of the new players... However, lets not kid ourselves, they are not new to the world of gaming, nor to the concept of human duplicity. They know what they are doing by being super-quiet. We have to be willing to treat them the same as any other player, even if that means lynching them. Otherwise, if one (or more) of them are wolves and we just sit by and do nothing.... Well, who is the noob then, ha, ha?

By the way, another way to be 'quiet' is to just post nothing but fluff posts. I'm looking at you, Devante.

Gosh, everybody is going to hate me.. but I'm not here to make friends. I'm here to save TOWN!

[Votanic]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

Not a bad plan but can Swang use his power on a barkeep? And if we are wrong about Loose and he comes back town and Swang dies as town as well, could be a terrible day for us. But definitely something to think about doing

Pixars response to Max's plan readys dodgy to me.
1. The barber role explicitly says the barber cannot use his power on a vagabond. Why would Pixar ask if barber can use power on barkeep - the answer has to be yes - so its starting off with a misleading irrelevancy.
2. Yes its true that a town on town kill would be terrible - obviously.
3. So on what planet are you trying to suggest to Max that its a good idea and to Swang that it is something worth thinking about ?

If all you guys are really worried about is my immunity to being voted out - have a think about a Pixar vote today - it has to make a lot more sense than town going -2 (or the risk of it) because even if Pixar is not a wolf - you only go at worst -1 and you achieve something in your minds by taking away my immunity tomorrow.

I have voted for him today - if you guys vote for him too today I lose my immunity.

Have a read of Pixar and decide whether you think he sounds dodgy. I for one am reading his post above as dodgy.

LC, You definitely bring up good points to ponder. But why focus more on Pixar, than maxleod who initiated the plan?

[Maxleod]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

Not a bad plan but can Swang use his power on a barkeep? And if we are wrong about Loose and he comes back town and Swang dies as town as well, could be a terrible day for us. But definitely something to think about doing

Pixars response to Max's plan readys dodgy to me.
1. The barber role explicitly says the barber cannot use his power on a vagabond. Why would Pixar ask if barber can use power on barkeep - the answer has to be yes - so its starting off with a misleading irrelevancy.
2. Yes its true that a town on town kill would be terrible - obviously.
3. So on what planet are you trying to suggest to Max that its a good idea and to Swang that it is something worth thinking about ?

If all you guys are really worried about is my immunity to being voted out - have a think about a Pixar vote today - it has to make a lot more sense than town going -2 (or the risk of it) because even if Pixar is not a wolf - you only go at worst -1 and you achieve something in your minds by taking away my immunity tomorrow.

I have voted for him today - if you guys vote for him too today I lose my immunity.

Have a read of Pixar and decide whether you think he sounds dodgy. I for one am reading his post above as dodgy.

You're grasping at straws. You die, period.

[DirtyDishSoap]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

This sounds slap stick and way out of left field. Where did Loose and Swang fit into this picture? What did Loose exactly do that rang the alarms? And even then, Loose is the only guy currently here that effectively has a bulletproof vest from scum. I'd say have our doc protect Swang in case of worst case scenarios, but I'm not seeing any red flags that says Loose is a furball.

[Maxleod]

OK, here's what I think:

-Swang kills Loose Cannon (we can't lynch him because of his immunity). If Swang refuses to do so we lynch him (the wolves targetting the Bailiff N1 probably means that all wolves already are in a position of power).
-We lynch Son!ic

How does that sound?

This sounds slap stick and way out of left field. Where did Loose and Swang fit into this picture? What did Loose exactly do that rang the alarms? And even then, Loose is the only guy currently here that effectively has a bulletproof vest from scum. I'd say have our doc protect Swang in case of worst case scenarios, but I'm not seeing any red flags that says Loose is a furball.

Look, it's simple:

-The wolves killed the bailiff because they already all have a public power role.
-The Barkeep can't be lynched.
-We need to get rid of the Barkeep.

(and also Loose sounding scum AF geberallty speaking)

[DirtyDishSoap]

[

color=#0000FF]The Barber Shop - The Barber - Swang918[/color]
This famous Barber is an artist with a razor. He sometimes takes advantage of his tool to mete out justice by himself in order to eliminate a character he feels is suspect.
At any point during the day the barber can eliminate a player of his choice. This must be stated in green in the Forum.
If the player eliminated is a werewolf, the Barber is congratulated by the village and he survives his action. Otherwise the Barber is immediately eliminated.
The Barber cannot eliminate a Vagabond.

Reason 1. why this plan is doomed and a crap chute.
If Swang kills Loose, flips town, Swang also dies and that's goodbye to a guy with immunity and our vig.

Reason 2. Losing two town then say we mislynch and then have a NK, that's a whopping 4 player elimination a fast track to loserville.

Reason 3. There's almost no benefit from doing this.

[degaston]

Look, it's simple:

-The wolves killed the bailiff because they already all have a public power role.

This is just silly. The wolves have a kill, and they know who the other wolves are already. They would prefer that no one have the public roles over having them themselves. The Lord and maybe the Schoolmarm are the only ones that might be useful to them anyway, but since they didn't have the Bailiff, there was no way to guarantee that they would get those.

Also, as has been mentioned, if Loose and Swang are town, then this is a good way to eliminate two townies.

-The Barkeep can't be lynched.
-We need to get rid of the Barkeep.

(and also Loose sounding scum AF geberallty speaking)

The barkeep is likely to lose his immunity eventually. I don't think we need to rush into eliminating our public power roles, even though the remaining ones seem to be of limited value.

[fusibaseball]

Dega said he thinks there are 3 scum and possibly a 3rd party in the setup (his best guess).

Strike was a double power role. Ragian was first night kill.

If BOTH of the other scum are Vagabonds, the first night kill would not have been Ragian. That would be a 2/4 shot to get a scum into a power role via Ragian, and the odds only improve each day.

So I think AT LEAST one of his scum buddies is a power role or Farmer, most likely both. My best guess is one is a low-profile Farmer follower (mpolo comes to mind) plus one of these 3 is Strike's right-hand man:

1) Devante
2) Loose Canon
3) Swang

Based on recent discussion, I don't think EW is scum and it doesn't make sense to me that DDS would have 2 votes against him after Night 1 if he was Scum.

----------

So one of those 3, possibly both, is likely Scum. All are suspicious for different reasons. Devante only posts fluff. LC defended Strike day 1. Swang not adding anything and being suspicious AF.

I'm also of the opinion that there are less power roles distributed than I thought initially. This means that it's generally in Town's favor to keep public power roles in play because they're essentially the public's tools to use whenever we please. I say this because, yes, theoretically Barkeep can kill whenever he personally wants and Lord can pardon whenever he personally likes, but really they're going to use it when Town pressures them to use it to maintain public appearance.

-----------

So the question for Day 2 is: do we have enough convincing evidence to go after one of those 3? If not, it's in Town's best interest to keep power roles (especially public power roles) in play. I don't think we have enough evidence to go after any of them. So my attention turns to the Farmers:

1) I'm open to voting Pixar. He seemed pretty trigger-happy to jump on a questionable play from Max (I don't mind Max's initial idea because he's at least actively throwing ideas into the thread and furthering productive conversation which is more than most people)
2) I'm open to voting mpolo (useless and coasting)
3) I'm leaning toward no lynch'ing to see where we're at Day 3

FP'ed by Dega but nothing he said changes my opinion on anything I wrote above.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Ragian is back, kindish. He will replace parked

[Votanic]

Ragian is back, kindish. He will replace parked

Great... this time he probably is a wolf...

[DirtyDishSoap]

Let's just lynch him instead for old times sake