ASoIaF Mafia Prologue (10/13) - D3: The Bloody Winter Rose

[kgb007]

i think the bw on IB has been generated out of mostly air since it seems like he missed a couple posts or misunderstood something (i'll admit it's been hard for me to keep everyone straight and speculate on who's part of each faction when my flavour knowledge is next to nothing and i have trouble inferring factions based on people's subtle posts)

but to Neb's (i think it was neb at least) point let's assume we lynch a 3rd party today and we have another kill during the night, unless someone with a NA comes forward to reveal more information aren't we back at where we are today? no one wants to casts a vote for fear of revealing their faction?

frankly i have no idea if IB in my faction or not but seeing how the only other person with votes against is a claimed 3rd party, i'm inclined to want to vote IB and get another claim, and decide whether or not to switch my vote based on his claim, i realize this would most likely reveal which side of the fence i'm on but we've got to start somewhere, NOTE i'm not actually doing it at this very moment bc i want to pose a question to the 3rd partiers

MM, SW and Neb - what will you do once he claims? i assume Neb will choose the opposite side of whatever IB claims if he is in fact lynched but aren't MM and SW essentially choosing which faction they align with depending on whether IB is loyalist or rebel?

the opposing faction should have a clear numbers advantage and surely 3 more 3rd partiers won't help the balance

[Fircoal]

The Weird One hasn't posted in over a week but seems quite active everywhere else.

Personally, I'd like to hear current thoughts from him and KGB (who last posted friday for a vote count before he would do anything)

I agree with this.

You rang?


Anyway, I am sorry for the inactivity. My current thoughts are confusion...I have been so inactive with posting because I'm unsure as to how to proceed. I agree with fircoal's stance that lynching a third party may be beneficial, but I'd rather lynch someone of the opposing faction. The catch being that we're all completely in the dark, here...except for the faction heads and the third party peoples...It does seem that Foxglove is being a bit overzealous in his pursuit of Neb, though...This is just at a glance. [another reason I have been active in others and fallen behind in this is that the others I'm active in are incredibly simplistic and take very little time to follow...that being said, final projects for my classes are just about done with, so my activity should pick up in a couple of days...I'll try to remain at at least a post a day in the mean time]

Interesting....

[strike wolf]

Probably not. It will influence us definitely but I would rather wait longer if possible before having to choose one side or the other.

[Nebuchadnezer]

MM, SW and Neb - what will you do once he claims? i assume Neb will choose the opposite side of whatever IB claims if he is in fact lynched but aren't MM and SW essentially choosing which faction they align with depending on whether IB is loyalist or rebel?

the opposing faction should have a clear numbers advantage and surely 3 more 3rd partiers won't help the balance

I don't think Iron gets lynched today. It's near impossible, and highly unlikely...

[kgb007]

how do you figure? three 3rd parties, and the 5 members from the opposing faction if we assume there are 5 people per faction and Neb, MM and SW

unless the people familiar with flavour think there's another 3rd party..?

[Nebuchadnezer]

how do you figure? three 3rd parties, and the 5 members from the opposing faction if we assume there are 5 people per faction and Neb, MM and SW

unless the people familiar with flavour think there's another 3rd party..?

1. Once he claims, who is going to hammer? It will put a target on those two additional voters that they are against Iron's side, and they will be taken down at night, or...
2. Those voting him that are on his side will unvote, thus preventing the lynch, or...
3. The third parties unvote, since we don't really want a lynch, we just want information, thus preventing a lynch.

And yes, I think there is someone on the Small Council in this game, who does not have to pick sides. A true third party.

I don't think Iron gets lynched today.

[spiesr]

So, Neb, is the setup broken or something then if a lynch is improbable?

[Nebuchadnezer]

So, Neb, is the setup broken or something then if a lynch is improbable?

Broken? No. Different? Yes.

Without claims, there is no way to figure it out. So far, we have 3 claimed 3rd parties. I do think most of the action will take place at night, but there will be no action without information.

[Minister Masket]

Probably not. It will influence us definitely but I would rather wait longer if possible before having to choose one side or the other.

This. We have plenty of time to decide.
Specifically, I'd like to see a rebel/loyalist claim, see how the other side reacts over say...a night, then make a choice.

[kgb007]

1. Once he claims, who is going to hammer? It will put a target on those two additional voters that they are against Iron's side, and they will be taken down at night, or...
2. Those voting him that are on his side will unvote, thus preventing the lynch, or...
3. The third parties unvote, since we don't really want a lynch, we just want information, thus preventing a lynch.

And yes, I think there is someone on the Small Council in this game, who does not have to pick sides. A true third party.

I don't think Iron gets lynched today.

1. the hammer will come from the opposing faction who hasn't voted yet/those who voted for neb that are part of the opposing faction against
2. those voting him that are on his side? there's only 2 people that have voted IB that aren't 3rd parties
3. SW never said he was unvoting in his post, nor did MM, am I to infer from your post above that you will unvote?

that was the whole point of my question to you, SW and MM. do you just want the information or do you want a lynch and don't care what faction he claims since he's got this many votes already?

none of you stated outright that you'll unvote once we get the claim, SW and MM seem content to let the chips fall where they may in regards to the lynch and see if another member of the same faction gets picked off at night

i want the information since we seem to be stalled with only 3rd party claims but i'd throw it out there that no matter which side IB claims, i would unvote immediately afterwards to hide my allegence, thus making it a hallow vote against IB and IB may not be inclined to claim knowing this

[jonty125]

Am I correct in assuming, that if we fail to reach a majority, there will be a no lynch?

In other news, my vote on IB is for him to claim, at least, lynching him, will be a thought AFTER he claims.

[Iron Butterfly]

I do not for a second believe that all we have is loyalists/rebels and are third parties. So far we have 3 neutrals claimed, which leaves 10 players. I for one do not believe we are split down the middle, it would just be.....to easy for lack of a better word.

Again we get back to win conditions and greater victories.

Vote Safari

I realize this will not go anywhere and YES it is an OMIGUS vote but we are playing a different game then we are use to. Safari has stood back the entire game letting others do the work while throwing out information that is obvious for all. He has added nothing to the conversation.

The BW on me is BS as it is not a case as it is a fishing expedition for information.

Something I have found curious. IF Staniss has indeed been poisoned who did it? How would they know target Stanis? I doubt they did. What if we have a third party poisoner???

[strike wolf]

The case is that you had shown most of the game that you'd rather lynch third parties and skim major information than actually scum hunt. Is it two factions? not really it's more like two major factions Loyalists vs Rebels who are each made up of smaller factions.

Loyalists: Targaryens, Tyrells, possibly Martell

Rebels: Baratheons (Stannis confirmed, Robert might as well be), Starks, Arryns, possibly Tully.

Unaligned: Walder Frey, Jaime Lannister and Tywin Lannister.

possible others: Barriston Selmy (? would be loyalist), Grand Maestar Pycelle (?), Varys (?), Balon Greyjoy (unlikely).

The difference is that while Targaryens probably can't win at all if the loyalists lose, I imagine the Tyrells would have a lesser condition that would allow them to benefit somewhat from the Rebels victory (as long as certain conditions hold true), Martells if involved, the same though maybe with less incentive for direct support towards the loyalists.

On the flipside, Baratheons and Starks likely as not have to win with the Rebels since Ned would be beheaded if the loyalists won (The Mad King already wanted his head for flimsy reasoning, I doubt he'd let him be granted a pardon easily). Arryns support rebels first and foremost but probably can potentially get partial conditions without the rebels winning and the same goes for Tully.

For the record, it has already even been mentioned that those within the same factions may not have identical conditions to win where some might have different partial win conditions.

[safariguy5]

I do not for a second believe that all we have is loyalists/rebels and are third parties. So far we have 3 neutrals claimed, which leaves 10 players. I for one do not believe we are split down the middle, it would just be.....to easy for lack of a better word.

Again we get back to win conditions and greater victories.

Vote Safari

I realize this will not go anywhere and YES it is an OMIGUS vote but we are playing a different game then we are use to. Safari has stood back the entire game letting others do the work while throwing out information that is obvious for all. He has added nothing to the conversation.

The BW on me is BS as it is not a case as it is a fishing expedition for information.

Something I have found curious. IF Staniss has indeed been poisoned who did it? How would they know target Stanis? I doubt they did. What if we have a third party poisoner???

If nothing else, I have stood by Neb against your attempts to get him lynched. What I find more interesting now is that once you realized that you probably weren't going to get the votes to get him lynched, you immediately switch targets. And it just so happens that person disagrees with you.

To reiterate, while Neb remains undeclared, he doesn't pose much of a threat to anyone regardless of faction. Lynching him now does little to advance the game while possibly depriving a faction of the votes necessary to push through lynches later on in the game. Once he has chosen a side, I can see why a faction would want him dead, but now is not the time to do that.

[Iron Butterfly]

I explained why I voted for Neb.

I also explained why I voted for you. I expect it to go nowhere yet your lack of response unless directly confronted has left me suspicious of you.

Now the talk is of a possible hammer of me, which begs the question, why would rebel or loyalist hammer not knowing my faction?? It is still a theory that the leaders of each faction know who is in their faction. We only have the information that lannister provided. the idea that the leaders know who is who is still speculation.

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

[The Weird One]

I explained why I voted for Neb.

I also explained why I voted for you. I expect it to go nowhere yet your lack of response unless directly confronted has left me suspicious of you.

Now the talk is of a possible hammer of me, which begs the question, why would rebel or loyalist hammer not knowing my faction?? It is still a theory that the leaders of each faction know who is in their faction. We only have the information that lannister provided. the idea that the leaders know who is who is still speculation.

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

Just throwing it out there, either the factions are not split down the middle, or the blue bit is confirmed...Safariguy, if I recall, expressed surprise that not everyone knew their whole faction...this outs him as either a leader or a third party...Just my two cents...and I hope to hell that I'm not bringing attention upon my faction's head...

[safariguy5]

I explained why I voted for Neb.

I also explained why I voted for you. I expect it to go nowhere yet your lack of response unless directly confronted has left me suspicious of you.

Now the talk is of a possible hammer of me, which begs the question, why would rebel or loyalist hammer not knowing my faction?? It is still a theory that the leaders of each faction know who is in their faction. We only have the information that lannister provided. the idea that the leaders know who is who is still speculation.

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

Lack of response where? As in not posting unless you vote for me? I've been posting regularly. Maybe not once a page regularly, but by no means do I think I've been inactive.

Maybe you feel that I haven't been "responding" but quite frankly, I don't see the day progressing. It's either going to be you, neb, or probably a no lynch today. The reasons why I am not voting Neb are the same now as they were when this first came up.

Also, you seem to believe that you will be lynched. I would argue that you probably won't be lynched unless you claim a role that is clearly opposed to everyone around now.

As far as whether it's a true 5 v 5, I don't know. But I can say I don't know the identities of 4 other people for sure (claims don't count obviously).

[spiesr]

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

I initially did not think that to be the case, but the way people have been playing so far seems to be suggesting that it might be.

[nagerous]

The ship has sailed anyway. You all don't seem too keen to join me now so you are all at this moment a potential threat.

If you were on your own, no. but if you were on your own you don't pose that much of an advantage for us to join you anyways. Other than that, I don't have an issue with joining a side just because one of it's members has been against me in the past. It basically comes down to who I think presents the better chance for me to win. I'm pretty sure you've known me long enough to know that I wouldn't side against you out of spite.

You maybe. Masket I am less convinced about and I am guessing this may be a split decision or he as the one who seemed to know your role without you knowing has the cards.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

Okay, for good or bad, here's my thoughts...

1. I think the rebels have more people on their side. They might be able to pull a lynch, but are so disorganized that they can't do anything. Their refusal to gather any information this day could be their downfall.
2. I think the Loyalists are outnumbered, but have quite a bit of killing power. The longer they stay alive, the better their odds look. The rebels are playing right into the loyalists game.
3. I think Stannis is "under siege." I think Mace Tyrell found him last night at Storm's Keep and has him dead to rights. I'm guessing there is some time limit until the Stannis is killed. Yet that player doesn't seem to care that he is dead without help.
4. I think if Iron claims rebel, he won't be lynched. If he is Aerys or Rheagar his chance of lynch goes up. However, once again, nobody wants to try anything. You'd all rather sit here and twiddle your thumbs, hoping some great revelation comes down from on high.

Quite honestly, I am thinking Iron is one of the Targaryans. He is very reluctant to be pushed to a claim. He is constantly pushing the idea that we shouldn't pressure anyone, because it might reveal a faction (gasp!).

Now the talk is of a possible hammer of me, which begs the question, why would rebel or loyalist hammer not knowing my faction?? It is still a theory that the leaders of each faction know who is in their faction. We only have the information that lannister provided. the idea that the leaders know who is who is still speculation.

The real question, Iron, is why would we NOT know your alignment? One more vote and you're at L-2. Claim time. Then we know your alignment. Why would there be a hammer without knowing your faction alignment? More fear mongering? Do you want no information getting out? Would you refuse to claim at L-2?

This is what is running through my mind...all a big guess...but it's all I can puzzle out at this point.

[strike wolf]

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

Okay, for good or bad, here's my thoughts...

1. I think the rebels have more people on their side. They might be able to pull a lynch, but are so disorganized that they can't do anything. Their refusal to gather any information this day could be their downfall.
2. I think the Loyalists are outnumbered, but have quite a bit of killing power. The longer they stay alive, the better their odds look. The rebels are playing right into the loyalists game.
3. I think Stannis is "under siege." I think Mace Tyrell found him last night at Storm's Keep and has him dead to rights. I'm guessing there is some time limit until the Stannis is killed. Yet that player doesn't seem to care that he is dead without help.
4. I think if Iron claims rebel, he won't be lynched. If he is Aerys or Rheagar his chance of lynch goes up. However, once again, nobody wants to try anything. You'd all rather sit here and twiddle your thumbs, hoping some great revelation comes down from on high.

Not as sure on #3 (my instinct on Stannis makes me think he has at least a limited bulletproof type role) but 1, 2 and 4, yes. Rebels probably have an overall numbers advantage but loyalists probably have either better organization or better killing potential.

[kgb007]

I explained why I voted for Neb.

I also explained why I voted for you. I expect it to go nowhere yet your lack of response unless directly confronted has left me suspicious of you.

Now the talk is of a possible hammer of me, which begs the question, why would rebel or loyalist hammer not knowing my faction?? It is still a theory that the leaders of each faction know who is in their faction. We only have the information that lannister provided. the idea that the leaders know who is who is still speculation.

I would like to ask the gathered masses..."How many believe that the faction is split down the middle 5 vs 5 with the three neutrals?"

Lack of response where? As in not posting unless you vote for me? I've been posting regularly. Maybe not once a page regularly, but by no means do I think I've been inactive.

Maybe you feel that I haven't been "responding" but quite frankly, I don't see the day progressing. It's either going to be you, neb, or probably a no lynch today. The reasons why I am not voting Neb are the same now as they were when this first came up.

Also, you seem to believe that you will be lynched. I would argue that you probably won't be lynched unless you claim a role that is clearly opposed to everyone around now.

As far as whether it's a true 5 v 5, I don't know. But I can say I don't know the identities of 4 other people for sure (claims don't count obviously).

i woulda leaned 5v5 previously but other's speculation that rebels outnumber loyalists make sense (since it's usually the oppressed masses rising up over the few that weld power)

i guess what i'm getting at is, back out the 3rd party claims and we have 10 players left, safari states he doesn't know the identities of 4 players, why stop at 4 unless you know who's in your faction, IE are a faction leader?

can someone with better flavour knowledge discuss where stannis falls in the rebel pecking order with his injury from N1 in mind?

[strike wolf]

He would be behind Robert Baratheon, Ned Stark and Jon Arryn (that order more or less) in importance. Probably behind Hoster Tully as well if he is in this game. However, while not directly involved in fighting, the fact that he managed to keep Storm's End from falling while under siege for pretty much the entire war was an impressive and highly important feat which kept the majority of Highgarden away from the main fight (with Highgarden at full strength, The Battle of The Trident which was the decisive victory that decided the war, may have gone a different route, even if Storm's End had fallen after it would have been too late to reach the Trident but before Tywin Lannister sacked the Red Keep, they could have delayed and heavily burdened the rebels on their march towards Kings Landing).

[safariguy5]

I don't want to argue semantics with you IB, you asked whether we thought it was a 5v5. I said no and stated my reasons why. If you had said it was a 6v4, I would have said the same thing except with a different number.

I don't see what you're trying to get at here...

[jonty125]

I realize this will not go anywhere and YES it is an OMIGUS vote but we are playing a different game then we are use to.

That doesn't excuse you.


IoN - I don't think this is a 5v5 with 3 neutrals,