EW's Semi-Open Matrix Madness

[Kingm]

Vote Swang

After reading over things another time, I still feel a bit lost, but I agree that Swang smells scummy.
Hoping we will get more info from D2 lynch and N2 nightactions.

[Extreme Ways]

Votecount:
swang (6) - Vot, charle, fusibaseball, pix, strike wolf, kingm
Charle (1) - PMC
Votanic (2) - swang, LC

Swang is on L-1

[Loose Canon]

The worst thing about lynching swang IF it's a mislynch is that then it will give mafia such a lot of encouragement.

[Ragian]

Swang is an easy I would go as far as saying lazy candidate for lynching.
But what roused my suspicions was the players posting early on that they couldn't see any other outcome D2 than a Swang lynch.
It was sort of preparing the groundwork for a mislynch on Swang - I thought.
I take the point that Swang perhaps hasn't done a lot townie.
I think a vote on Swang is just like sticking a pin to select a horse to bet on.
And I think there are scum feels on other players so we can and should try to do better than pinsticking.

I agree. Who did you see saying those things that you felt came off as "preparing for a mislynch"?

Whatever Swang will turn out to be, Scum or Town, it is going to be an interesting result and I have a feeling we might be able to work with that.

How will we be able to work with it? What will you deduce from a lynch if swang flips either scum or town?

Vote Swang

After reading over things another time, I still feel a bit lost, but I agree that Swang smells scummy.
Hoping we will get more info from D2 lynch and N2 nightactions.

Would you explain why you think he "smells scummy"?

[Loose Canon]

It's been a busy week and I'm admittedly feeling a bit mentally exhausted by it. So this is just going to be a summary

I need to relook at Ragian in particular. He didnt catch my attention D1 and have found myself not fully following the accusations or defense well. PMC still seems odd to me but based on a Dev (I think?) comment, I think I need to relook into specifics. I do think Kong is skating a bit when I do feel like there was some play day 1 that was at the least odd if not suspect. Ultimately though, I don't see many scenarios where this day doesn't end with a Swang lynch since most of these suspicions arise from the way the lynch was shifted away from him yesterday.

I'm finding I don't really have many strong town reads. I still think LC is town and I lean slightly town on Charle but Id mark the rest as neutral to scummy.

Its the above "I dont see too many scenarios where this day doesn't end with a Swang lynch" that I think is suspect and suggestive

[Loose Canon]

I honestly feel charle is a much better target than either of the voted players. Nothing has changed my mind. When we were scum together he would make a little plan of who he was going to accuse in scum chat and then go act on it the next day. Last game as town he did not do that. I am his target this game.

I guess with less than two days to the deadline I may have to change based on the vote counts, but will wait a bit to see if anyone sees what I do.

You fell off the bus completely this time bud, I am 100% town.

Charle, I've re-read your posts since I posted a short while ago that PMC had convinced me to add you as the 4th member of my scum list.
What seemed like a very persuasive argument on first reading seems less persuasive now.
Currently I think PMC has a vibe plus a little bit on you and I respect that of PMC but much more for the vibe than the little bit.
I'm more inclined to think you are on the wrong bus in terms of your suspicions.
None of Swang, Rag, PMC are hot on my suspicious list present.
I respect that Vot,Max, Strike are not on your suss list either right now.
Doesn't mean we aren't both Town though.
Lets face it, in terms of SUSPICIONS, currently either you or I is probably on the wrong bus.

[Ragian]

It's been a busy week and I'm admittedly feeling a bit mentally exhausted by it. So this is just going to be a summary

I need to relook at Ragian in particular. He didnt catch my attention D1 and have found myself not fully following the accusations or defense well. PMC still seems odd to me but based on a Dev (I think?) comment, I think I need to relook into specifics. I do think Kong is skating a bit when I do feel like there was some play day 1 that was at the least odd if not suspect. Ultimately though, I don't see many scenarios where this day doesn't end with a Swang lynch since most of these suspicions arise from the way the lynch was shifted away from him yesterday.

I'm finding I don't really have many strong town reads. I still think LC is town and I lean slightly town on Charle but Id mark the rest as neutral to scummy.

Its the above "I dont see too many scenarios where this day doesn't end with a Swang lynch" that I think is suspect and suggestive

Decent stuff. But what I don't get about the Swang suspicion is that if scum - as several people have suggested - indeed steered the lynch away from swang and onto DDS, how does that necessarily incriminate swang? Any experienced scum would make sure that they picked a townie as a fall guy D2. And here we are.

Magically, the ones that voted late are either MIA or voting swang now. It doesn't add up.

[Ragian]

The vote swap to DDS at the eleventh hour was a little weird to me. How did 4 people come to separate conclusions within 4 hours that DDS should be voted instead of Swang? Seems like to me there's a layer of protection for Swang.

Is this Fusi asking the same queas me or preparing for swang to be used as a fall guy?

[Ragian]

Unvote Vote DDS

This is the deciding vote. (Strike and Devante voted after the deadline, it seems. Their votes aren't in the end of day tally.)

[Ragian]

Fusi, however, was on swang D1, too...

[Ragian]

Sorry for spamming... Sometimes I think better when I write shite down, and I am on my tablet, so it's difficult (or I'm an IT moron) to cram it into one post when quote multiple posts.

What I've talked myself into is this:
1) I don't see the case on swang, but I could see scum using him to get a two for one lynch.
2) I don't like that Charle has skated over the blatant misrepresentation of me earlier. Neither do I like that no one cared, but if people don't find it scummy, then there's that.

This means that I think that we can find scum between Kong, Devante, and Strike. I also think Charle is scum, but for different reasons. I'm reluctant to vote for Devante right now because...well...he hasn't been here D2, I feel. I want to vote Charle, but I fear that that vote is 50% bruised ego. That won't garner any followers. That leaves me with Strike and Kong. To be honest, I could go either way, but I'm going to Vote strike because of what LC put forward, because of his uncounted vote D1, and because of his typo D1 which I'm hoping was a scumslip

[Ragian]

*when quoting...ugh... Correct the other mistakes yourselves

[Loose Canon]

Don't like new lynchees being put up for voting late in the day.
Suspicions fine at any time.
Mislynch cost of a late in the day switch to a new lynch candidate costs more than the mislynch.
Gotta decline the temptation to vote for strike at this time.

[Ragian]

Why did you bring him up late, then?

[Votanic]

Decent stuff. But what I don't get about the Swang suspicion is that if scum - as several people have suggested - indeed steered the lynch away from swang and onto DDS, how does that necessarily incriminate swang? Any experienced scum would make sure that they picked a townie as a fall guy D2. And here we are.

This is bizarrely daft. The very steering that Rags mentions is the incrimination.

Maybe Rags is just a misguided townie playing badly. I still don't buy his argument that DDS was giving off any exceptional scumminess... but maybe Rags tunneled hard and really believed that (Fact: He was wrong in any case)... and then he realy got carried away with his manipulative powers and decided to do an extreme push for DDS over swang for no good reason other than he could and it seemed like fun???

Also I like how now he's trying to get mileage about my original research into yesterday's election irregularities.

I do not want to be a tunneler or a lynch campaign manager on poor evidence. I really don't want to tunnel on swang... even if his lynch is imminent.

Yes, there are several other minimal-particpants that could possibly skulk to victory. I am not in denial of that.
So then if we go with that assumptionm that every loudmouth around here is a know-nothing townie (self included) and scum is just quietly coasting to a win the smart and easy way... How does Town combat that, without decent PRS?
The only other thing to do is lynch quiet players at least some of the time so nobody grows too safe.
In that scenario swang still makes a good lynch candidate...
Many of the other minimal posters are either new and/or habitual in their minimalist play,...which sucks because newness and habitualness has nothing to do with innocence. Yep, there really are no good substitutes for solid investigative powers.
We are playing a guessing game. ...so buy your lotto ticket and cross your fingers.

Don't forget, I also tried getting an LC lynch going, but that went nowhere.
Like his predecessor, he seems to have acquired '4S' protection (Super-Stupid Sonic-Shield, feel free to rearrange those four word in any combination)

[Ragian]

Sheesh. You can't really see anything beyond what's right in front of you, can you? Talk about playing this game badly.

[Loose Canon]

Why did you bring him up late, then?

I brought strike up late on Wednesday after a post he had just made seemed all wrong to me. I'm airing suspicions when they really strike me.

[Extreme Ways]

Votecount:
swang (6) - Vot, charle, fusibaseball, pix, strike wolf, kingm
Charle (1) - PMC
Votanic (2) - swang, LC
Strike (1) - ragian

Swang is on L-1

[strike wolf]

I said I felt Swang was the likely lynch because the end of day weirdness. All the connections were around him and the people everyone was going for were mostly those they suspected of being scum when Swang was scum. It was useful discussion but I did fedl like it needed to be put back into context. Yes, I also voted for DDS Day 1. I made it clear yesterday even before the lynch that I was in favor of lynching someone D1 this game because it had been too long since wed had a true D1 lynch that didnt involve a guilty day cop investigation and it would be a good reminder that D1 votes do carry weight. I doubled down on that when I signed onto the lynch pact. The vote for DDS was to show my committal to what I'd said earlier.

I do also feel that the switch was odd and worth investigating. You can call it hypocritical for me to say that but no theory has stuck out to me otherwise. Ragians theory is a bit too committed to the idea that both scum would be involved in this switch. That could be true if Swang proves to be a super important scum role but if he's just a Goon or lesser power role than scum would have to either be inexperienced or caught without a plan to have both jumped on to defend Swang. I also just don't see scum making a public play to save one townie in favor of lynching another townie. I suppose there is a 4D chess move hidden in there but it just sounds needlessly convoluted for scum to attempt Day 1.

[Loose Canon]

Well if Swang flips town it will just reemphasise the imperative to play systematically.

[Charle]

How will we be able to work with it? What will you deduce from a lynch if swang flips either scum or town?

Wow Ragian, of course can we work with that.
1. It seems that there are 2 sides here, those who are with and those who are against voting for Swang.
2. As Strike also mentioned, we would like to understand the D1 end of day switch a bit better.
3. The people who voted Swang on D1 and D2 and at what stage they voted can contribute as well.

Why are you protecting Swang so much, on D1 and D2? I see a connection in there somehow and the only people who have connections with other players are scum. If Swang turns scum today, who do you think will be our next lynch tomorrow?

FP By LC

[Extreme Ways]

Votecount:
swang (6) - Vot, charle, fusibaseball, pix, strike wolf, kingm
Charle (1) - PMC
Votanic (2) - swang, LC
Strike (1) - ragian

Swang is on L-1

Also the final votecount.

Swang was: Vanilla Town. It is now Night 2.

[Extreme Ways]

Day 3 has begun. With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Alive players:

Strike Wolf
Devante
pmchugh
Votanic
Kingm
kongming3
*pixar*
Maxleod
Ragian
Charle
Fusibaseball

before people read into this order, it's the order of signups.

[Charle]

Ok, this means LC was killed last night and we can only assume he was Vanilla Town. It is going to be interesting why they would kill him, have to go through his posts a bit later today.

I must say, I am falling from the bus this time, after I saw Swang turned town, I thought that LC would be the next scum candidate but obviously not. Very confused at the moment.

[Extreme Ways]

Oops, missed posting that here as well. LC was vanilla. This is purely flavour:
"His epitaph reads "Alas his canon was loose in the battle for Trafalgar""