[Exp] CYOC! #4 Endgame! Town wins, you filthy animals

[strike wolf]

I haven't asked TFO but I am pretty sure I would die if I tried to switch with pt/a pgo just like anyone else.

[Metsfanmax]

OK. If that's true, then we have to conclude that HotShot was right and Endgame attacked him and was mirrored. (Of course, that doesn't clear HotShot as town, just that he's not lying about his role.)

[strike wolf]

Well i'm lost as all hell. What Mets said sounds logical but something still doesn't feel right. I may need to take some time to just go over all the information in my head. Or find some missing pieces that may shed light on what it is I am missing.

PT: Are you absolutely sure you have to be shot before you become a PGO or would any action work? Double check if needed. Only way PT is active PGO if it's only after being shot is if Dakky shot him N1 but that doesn't add up as Dakky for all intents and purposes A. appeared RB'ed and B. Didn't appear to have PT at the top of his targets list.

Mets: Would you confirm or deny that you tried to visit me last night? I don't want any other information at this point.

[strike wolf]

Hotshot. IB. How far would you two be willing to go to prove you had an active mirror ability?

[ptlowe]

I would have to be shot to become PGO. That I already confirmed with Mod. He didnt confirm whether I have been shot or not though.

[ptlowe]

Hotshot. IB. How far would you two be willing to go to prove you had an active mirror ability?

I think mets can confirm IB. HS, Im not sure if he can be confirmed...

[strike wolf]

Well IB and Hotshot are probably both telling the truth about the mirror at this point. The problem: the mirror doesn't actually confirm alignment. IB could have gotten a mirror as town or scum and the mirror itself seems to be a fairly neutral role that town, mafia or third party could possess. I would need to look back over but I think TFO said that he at least attempted to balance this game.

[Metsfanmax]

PT: Are you absolutely sure you have to be shot before you become a PGO or would any action work? Double check if needed. Only way PT is active PGO if it's only after being shot is if Dakky shot him N1 but that doesn't add up as Dakky for all intents and purposes A. appeared RB'ed and B. Didn't appear to have PT at the top of his targets list.

Well, I think it's just possible that the roleblock was him trying to shoot at dakky. But Tim did say that he used his JOAT roleblock on dakky. And I doubt Tim was lying about that, despite being scum. So yeah still confused. Maybe Tim lied about protecting me N2, and in fact shot at ptlowe that night? Tim might be the only player who would actually shoot at ptlowe

Mets: Would you confirm or deny that you tried to visit me last night? I don't want any other information at this point.

At this time I do not want to state anything about what I did last night, especially at the request of one of the three who could be scum. I would need a reason to answer this question.

Regarding the mirror: I confirm with certainty that IB had an active mirror on N3.

[strike wolf]

PT: Are you absolutely sure you have to be shot before you become a PGO or would any action work? Double check if needed. Only way PT is active PGO if it's only after being shot is if Dakky shot him N1 but that doesn't add up as Dakky for all intents and purposes A. appeared RB'ed and B. Didn't appear to have PT at the top of his targets list.

Well, I think it's just possible that the roleblock was him trying to shoot at dakky. But Tim did say that he used his JOAT roleblock on dakky. And I doubt Tim was lying about that, despite being scum. So yeah still confused. Maybe Tim lied about protecting me N2, and in fact shot at ptlowe that night? Tim might be the only player who would actually shoot at ptlowe

Except that there are two kill attempts accounted for N1 and N2. So for their to be an attempt on PT, it would have to have been a third attempt (Dakky or some mafia power we are still unaware of). It has been suggested that End tried to visit PT N1 but why were there still two night kills if Dakky was blocked? So End and Mitch visited Hots and/or IB (Chances both visited the same one are not out of the question which would leave the possibility open that Hotshot is lying about his role)

Mets: Would you confirm or deny that you tried to visit me last night? I don't want any other information at this point.

At this time I do not want to state anything about what I did last night, especially at the request of one of the three who could be scum. I would need a reason to answer this question.

I wanted minimal tainting of my answer but you are close to confirmed town so it shouldn't matter. I attempted to switch myself with Hotshot N3 (whether this attempt was successful or redirected me back to myself is uncertain). I will not say whether I received a gift or not last night. But the answer could confirm or invalidate Hotshot's claim.

If you want further proof I am town. Consider this. Tim claimed to protect you n2. In reality this was probably a guise for him having attempted to role block you. Yet your action to IB went through as you confirm. I busdrove you with myself, redirecting TIm's action to me after my action had sucessfully gone through effectively neutralizing Tim's ability last night. Would this happen if me and Tim were both mafia coordinating our efforts together?

[Metsfanmax]

PT: Are you absolutely sure you have to be shot before you become a PGO or would any action work? Double check if needed. Only way PT is active PGO if it's only after being shot is if Dakky shot him N1 but that doesn't add up as Dakky for all intents and purposes A. appeared RB'ed and B. Didn't appear to have PT at the top of his targets list.

Well, I think it's just possible that the roleblock was him trying to shoot at dakky. But Tim did say that he used his JOAT roleblock on dakky. And I doubt Tim was lying about that, despite being scum. So yeah still confused. Maybe Tim lied about protecting me N2, and in fact shot at ptlowe that night? Tim might be the only player who would actually shoot at ptlowe

Except that there are two kill attempts accounted for N1 and N2. So for their to be an attempt on PT, it would have to have been a third attempt (Dakky or some mafia power we are still unaware of).

Sure. And since the kill was unsuccessful, there's no reason for it to have showed up in the scene. As far as I am concerned, this remains the best explanation for what has happened.

I wanted minimal tainting of my answer but you are close to confirmed town so it shouldn't matter. I attempted to switch myself with Hotshot N3 (whether this attempt was successful or redirected me back to myself is uncertain). I will not say whether I received a gift or not last night. But the answer could confirm or invalidate Hotshot's claim.

I understand. I'm glad I'm not the mod who may have had to figure out how to resolve redirect versus mirror

If you want further proof I am town. Consider this. Tim claimed to protect you n2. In reality this was probably a guise for him having attempted to role block you.

I think he tried to kill pt. Your story makes sense if if he tried to RB me, because I know I didn't get roleblocked. But I don't have any evidence that this was his action, whereas I have at least a decent reason to suspect that he tried to kill pt (which is that I don't think anyone else could have removed the PGO).

I still don't understand why Tim would waste his JOAT shot on pt. But I haven't yet got a better theory for how pt could have been PGO by N3.

[Metsfanmax]

Er sorry, I said Tim but meant mitch there.

[strike wolf]

Tim wasn't JOAT. He was Mafia Roleblocker.

[strike wolf]

Mitch has pretty much been confirmed to have used his kill ability N3 to have it directed back at him, perhaps this was a mistake in interpretation of the scene otherwise, he also would not have been able to have performed the kill that would have removed PT's protection.

[Metsfanmax]

Note that I do believe that you switched with me on N2 because IB investigated me and got bus driver. I just don't have the evidence for Tim attempting to roleblock me.

[Metsfanmax]

Then I guess we must conclude that ptlowe is still bulletproof, not PGO, and that no one has attempted to kill him yet.

[strike wolf]

Here's my dilemma. three near unkillable roles on one side even with two kills a night seems unlikely, however does the fact that two of them cause likely backfire rebalance that equation?

FP'ed by Mets: Which is part of why I am stuck. With PT still bulletproof (though I am not exactly excited about testing the idea), that means that Endgame and Mitch both visited a mirrored individual. Did they visit Hotshot and IB or is it possible they only visited one of them (Specifically for this scenario to be significant, IB). Yet the scene seems like PGO as well...so perhaps I am reading too much into that flavor. GAH! My head is spinning.

So maybe the point rests less in figuring out who all was targeted last night and go back to figuring out who is the scum (or scums if there is indeed two). Right now I would say rough odds:

1. IB-72% likelihood
2. Hotshot-65%
3. PT-10%. very unlikely that he would out streaker. Only makes sense as a gambit to get one of them town credit. Not impossible but don't read it as likely.
4. Mets-8%. Scum gifter seems unlikely. Unless you were restricted from doing so it would make more sense for you to give your scum buddies protections and extra kills, no evidence of that thus far. Also not a role that is overly likely to be mafia in most cases.
5. PCM-5%. It's really the Tim lynch that does this. Perhaps it could have been the ultimate scum move to protect himself by sacrificing another mafia but I don't think mafia uses a double vote to kill their last ally when the possibility of mislynch still exists and Tim would mean only one vote to force the game ending mislynch the next day.

[Metsfanmax]

And with all of that being said, I believe that HotShot is the best lynch candidate.

On HotShot I only have a weak case: namely that he has been laying low for most of the game, was the hammer on Streaker D2 (which didn't cost him anything as scum), and focused heavily on mitch D3. I admit that I agreed initially with his argument about mitch but I didn't follow it up nearly as strongly as he did, and it makes a lot of sense for scum to try to bury mitch because it's so easy to rally people against him. I note also that he opened against IB on D1 and never changed his vote, but I'm not sure how to interpret that. It was not a strong case.

On IB we see that he was right about Tim on D1, and early on as well, and he was one of the first on the Streaker wagon after the spy glass result. He also went out of his way to criticize mitch for focusing on me and not Streaker, which he didn't need to do if he wanted credit for being on that lynch. And of course he was on the Tim case on D3 despite it not being at all clear that Tim would be lynched. None of those are individually conclusive but taken together it is more likely that HS is scum than IB is, given only this evidence.

[ptlowe]

Id be in for a HS lynch. Hes almost impossible to read as he tends to lie low in all of his games as mafia and as town.

[Metsfanmax]

I would like to know why strike thinks that IB is more likely as scum than HS. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't really find anything scummy that IB has done this game.

[strike wolf]

Other than getting it mixed up whether IB had defended Tim or voted him. It's a. Pretty close b. The role cop claim. Joat, Watcher, Cop, Role cop=very strong investigative town. Role cop is one of those where he could tell the truth about his actions and still be scum. C. The name. This is a small one but as you pointed out he messed up the character name. Normally I would probably look past this altogether but there was a recent mafia game where we caught a mafia under a similar slip.

[ptlowe]

Other than getting it mixed up whether IB had defended Tim or voted him. It's a. Pretty close b. The role cop claim. Joat, Watcher, Cop, Role cop=very strong investigative town. Role cop is one of those where he could tell the truth about his actions and still be scum. C. The name. This is a small one but as you pointed out he messed up the character name. Normally I would probably look past this altogether but there was a recent mafia game where we caught a mafia under a similar slip.

Thats a good call on the name. He must have picked his character how the heck would he get the name wrong.

[Metsfanmax]

b. The role cop claim. Joat, Watcher, Cop, Role cop=very strong investigative town. Role cop is one of those where he could tell the truth about his actions and still be scum.

Yes, but consider: he got that you were a JOAT on N1. If he's scum, aren't you target #1 on N2? Why would they take a chance and shoot at PCM instead, when they have a JOAT to shoot at?

C. The name. This is a small one but as you pointed out he messed up the character name. Normally I would probably look past this altogether but there was a recent mafia game where we caught a mafia under a similar slip.

Yeah, but be careful -- sometimes a slip is just a slip and isn't alignment-indicative. In fact I often think that slips like these are town-leaning rather than scum-leaning.

[Metsfanmax]

Other than getting it mixed up whether IB had defended Tim or voted him. It's a. Pretty close b. The role cop claim. Joat, Watcher, Cop, Role cop=very strong investigative town. Role cop is one of those where he could tell the truth about his actions and still be scum. C. The name. This is a small one but as you pointed out he messed up the character name. Normally I would probably look past this altogether but there was a recent mafia game where we caught a mafia under a similar slip.

Thats a good call on the name. He must have picked his character how the heck would he get the name wrong.

That's precisely why I don't think he's fakeclaiming -- if you were fakeclaiming, you'd be extra careful to get it right and check against the source you're fakeclaiming, not just do something from memory.

[strike wolf]

b. The role cop claim. Joat, Watcher, Cop, Role cop=very strong investigative town. Role cop is one of those where he could tell the truth about his actions and still be scum.

Yes, but consider: he got that you were a JOAT on N1. If he's scum, aren't you target #1 on N2? Why would they take a chance and shoot at PCM instead, when they have a JOAT to shoot at?

You have a point. I wasn't really considering night actions. A lot of it depends on how strong he considers JOAT (Many consider it more mid-tier than high tier) or if they wanted to go after known quantities or unknown (Likely in this case, eliminating an SK would be higher priority)

Though this does bring a thought, Would IB as mafia let End live? Night 1 sure. Let him be a potential mislynch tomorrow but N2? It was a bit clearer by the end of D2 that it was really too late in the game to expect End to be lynched by town and with him being a possible SK/gifter that made him a bigger target. I mean even as a believed Gifter, I can't see town lifting a finger to protect a third party.

[strike wolf]

Of course even if they passed up the kill on me, why pass up the role block? I feel like we're getting a bit far into WIFOM territory here trying to read motives when there are probably millions of answers but a mafia that knows I am JOAT would only avoid it if they felt strongly I was going to use the wrong ability on the wrong player (or felt confident enough in it) or had a better target (and mets as a better target doesn't really count being an unknown. ENd possibly as suspected gifter wouldn't want him giving out more investigations but there is no evidence to suggest that End was blocked on N2).