[Official] NBC Mafia Town Win MVP=trinicardinal

[MeDeFe]

Rodion, the problem with forcing anyone to hammer you under threat of lynching them if they refuse is that they may be a town powerrole and as such have a legitimate reason not to want to die together with you. Yes, the two big ones have claimed already, but there may well still be a few more around.

And if this is a gambit on your part, hats off.

[strike wolf]

Let me adress this directly, once and for all. I am not going to hammer myself. Why would I explode myself and forfeit a legit shot at exploding scum instead?

The chances of hitting scum are lower than the chances of hitting townies and in trying to force a hammer of someone who refuses to hammer you may force a claimed power role (there's even the chance you may expose town lovers as safari does seem to have a fondness for them). The more townies we go through the more detail we give mafia to use. Forcing someone to hammer a bomb is very risky. Take Firefly Mafia for example, when Nark hammered the bomb that forced us into a virtual lylo situation the next day (I say virtual as the roleblocker could have theoretically stopped the kill the next night or town no lynches). Before anyone says anything about town winning that game take into account that I was nearly lynched and it took some blunt force trauma about how I could prove my claim to prevent my lynch and that we were only in that position as Safari sucessfully vigged vio during the night. You and chap are the only legitimate options I see as no other case seems to have enough backbone to warrant this kind of risk so yes I think you should self hammer.

[shieldgenerator7]

hey, I'm waaay... behind. I just finished page 40.

I'll try to get cuaght up here soon.

-SG7 ( )

[betiko]

Let me adress this directly, once and for all. I am not going to hammer myself. Why would I explode myself and forfeit a legit shot at exploding scum instead?

The chances of hitting scum are lower than the chances of hitting townies and in trying to force a hammer of someone who refuses to hammer you may force a claimed power role (there's even the chance you may expose town lovers as safari does seem to have a fondness for them). The more townies we go through the more detail we give mafia to use. Forcing someone to hammer a bomb is very risky. Take Firefly Mafia for example, when Nark hammered the bomb that forced us into a virtual lylo situation the next day (I say virtual as the roleblocker could have theoretically stopped the kill the next night or town no lynches). Before anyone says anything about town winning that game take into account that I was nearly lynched and it took some blunt force trauma about how I could prove my claim to prevent my lynch and that we were only in that position as Safari sucessfully vigged vio during the night. You and chap are the only legitimate options I see as no other case seems to have enough backbone to warrant this kind of risk so yes I think you should self hammer.

ok, basically:
-no lynch: we investigate rodion, and if he is the godfather we are screwed

-rodion self hammers: if he is scum he is not going to do it of course. if he is town he will prove he is town if he does it, but we will lose a very good player that basically can't be killed by mafia.

-chap hammers rodion: well i first hope he is not his lyncher, but if he is i think it would be unballanced from safari to do this. if chap is really wanting to do this and is not his lyncher, well, he has to be town, and he has to be stubbornly sure his gut feeling on rodion is right to take the risk of losing 2 townies, and he rather be a VT if he sacrifies. the problem is that we don't know for sure if he would really hammer rodion if he gets the ocasion. could be a good bluff to look townie.

-strike hammers rodion: he is not going to do it, but he can be forced to. not sure it's a good idea. It could be scummy though if we follow his reasoning. If he is scum, then he knows if rodion is town or not. let's say rodion is not his scumbuddy. forcing him to hammer is pure benefit for the mafia. forcing another townie to sacrifice on him would be a great play short term, but would look too scummy and he knows it would be too greedy. getting just the bomb killed would be reasonable, better than a no lynch.

-mob hammers rodion: he wants to see it happen but he is clearly not willing to do it himself. scumtell or power role? he seems pretty conviced that rodion must die though, even more after what he claimed. this would lead to a 1-1 or the 2-0 for mafia with possibly a power role out. but he can just be a vt and not wanting to die, lol

-dazza hammers rodion: he humbly proposed his sacrifice. being at l-2 we should ve said yes go for it, you will be the one nailing rodion to see his reaction. now this could be a great move to remove suspicions on him, i guess we won't know for now. i tend to believe his hidden vt claim, but won't give it full credit. this could be a solution to make a 1-1 vs scums if rodion is mafia, but no one except chap and mob are 100% convinced about that.

[Swifte]

-chap hammers rodion: well i first hope he is not his lyncher

You've said this twice today - can someone explain what betiko means by chap being Rodion's 'lyncher'? That is a new phrase/role/whatever it is to me.

[betiko]

-chap hammers rodion: well i first hope he is not his lyncher

You've said this twice today - can someone explain what betiko means by chap being Rodion's 'lyncher'? That is a new phrase/role/whatever it is to me.

it's a neutral role where your objective is to get a particular person lynched. you get him lynched you won and the game is over. or so I understood.

[jonty125]

-chap hammers rodion: well i first hope he is not his lyncher

You've said this twice today - can someone explain what betiko means by chap being Rodion's 'lyncher'? That is a new phrase/role/whatever it is to me.

it's a neutral role where your objective is to get a particular person lynched. you get him lynched you won and the game is over. or so I understood.

The game doesn't finish it continues

player that basically can't be killed by mafia.

He can be killed but scum would die in the process.

[MoB Deadly]

ok, basically:
-no lynch: we investigate rodion, and if he is the godfather we are screwed

I do not think this is an option, even if he is not the godfather, we have bus drives that could mess things up. Plus the mafia knows the interest of investigating Rodion so if there is a framer he will be framed.

-rodion self hammers: if he is scum he is not going to do it of course. if he is town he will prove he is town if he does it, but we will lose a very good player that basically can't be killed by mafia.

If Rodion is scum - There is no way this will happen.
If Rodion is Town - Then we lose an opportunity to kill a member of mafia.

-chap hammers rodion: well i first hope he is not his lyncher, but if he is i think it would be unballanced from safari to do this. if chap is really wanting to do this and is not his lyncher, well, he has to be town, and he has to be stubbornly sure his gut feeling on rodion is right to take the risk of losing 2 townies, and he rather be a VT if he sacrifies. the problem is that we don't know for sure if he would really hammer rodion if he gets the ocasion. could be a good bluff to look townie.

I think this is WIFOM of why I think this is a good idea, but I will give my thoughts. My original thought before the claim is that either:
A) Rodion or Chap has to be scum. (clearly it would be beneficial if he hammered)
b) Rodion and Chap were just OMGUS casing each other because they both wanted to be the leaders in this game. If chap turns around and says "I dont mind hammering Rodion". THen:
1) He is lying, we will catch him if we tell him to hammer and he refuses
2) He strongly believes Rodion is lying and is scum. Then Chap stays alive and Rodion dies. (essentially clearing Chap)

-strike hammers rodion: he is not going to do it, but he can be forced to. not sure it's a good idea. It could be scummy though if we follow his reasoning. If he is scum, then he knows if rodion is town or not. let's say rodion is not his scumbuddy. forcing him to hammer is pure benefit for the mafia. forcing another townie to sacrifice on him would be a great play short term, but would look too scummy and he knows it would be too greedy. getting just the bomb killed would be reasonable, better than a no lynch.

Could be scummy if Rodion flips mafia. However I do not want to use Strike as a sacrifice to figure it out. He has expressed he does not want to do it, I'll stick by Strike's side and see how Rodion flips.

-mob hammers rodion: he wants to see it happen but he is clearly not willing to do it himself. scumtell or power role? he seems pretty conviced that rodion must die though, even more after what he claimed. this would lead to a 1-1 or the 2-0 for mafia with possibly a power role out. but he can just be a vt and not wanting to die, lol

Yes, as I have explained earlier, I feel like Rodion has to be lynched today. Where did I say I would not be willing to hammer him myself?? I have not specified on whether or not I would be willing to cast the hammer. I think we have had too many claims in this game, including a Cop, Doctor, possible bomb, and 2 more players Chap and Dazza willing to cast, and 1 player, Strike, not willing to cast. Obviously, not all of these may be 100% true, but we have to stop softclaiming for the mafia. We have still yet to find a mafia in this game and I think we need to start treading carefully.

-dazza hammers rodion: he humbly proposed his sacrifice. being at l-2 we should ve said yes go for it, you will be the one nailing rodion to see his reaction. now this could be a great move to remove suspicions on him, i guess we won't know for now. i tend to believe his hidden vt claim, but won't give it full credit. this could be a solution to make a 1-1 vs scums if rodion is mafia, but no one except chap and mob are 100% convinced about that.

[/quote]

I think this is our second best option as of right now besides Chap. Dazza already softclaimed that he would be willing to. Means:

A) He is lying and is scum - We will find this out if we pressure him to hammer
B) He softclaimed Vanilla or near vanilla - this is now info the mafia has, we may need his vote to prove rodion is not scum.

fastposted a couple times

[MoB Deadly]

I think this is WIFOM of why I think this is a good idea, but I will give my thoughts. My original thought before the claim is that either:
A) Rodion or Chap has to be scum. (clearly it would be beneficial if he hammered)
b) Rodion and Chap were just OMGUS casing each other because they both wanted to be the leaders in this game. If chap turns around and says "I dont mind hammering Rodion". THen:
1) He is lying, we will catch him if we tell him to hammer and he refuses
2) He strongly believes Rodion is lying and is scum. Then Chap stays alive and Rodion dies. (essentially clearing Chap)

EBWOP

3) Chap is wrong and they are both town. We lose 2 town, but chap already volunteered so he must not be an essential power role that must stay alive.

[shieldgenerator7]

Alright! Caught up! About hammering Rodion: obviously Rodion won't hammer himself, there is logic behind it but it may also be a survival tactic. If we have a VT hammer, we lose 1 town bomb and 1 VT, not a big loss except for the fact mafia has a higher chance of hitting power roles at night. We know mafia won't hammer, because there's no way hammering a bomb can help them. Chap and dazza have offered to hammer. Asking either one of them to hammer means (A) we find out if they're bluffing or not, but (B) we would lose 2 townies (as already stated). I would like to FOS chap and dazza, because Mafia could easily offer to hammer the bomb to prove townishness to gain brownie points with the town. More FOS dazza then chap, for being the second offer, and for claiming under no pressure. But yeah we don't want all the VTs to claim right now because Mafia would know who to target at night. And claiming VT is also a very easy claim for Mafia, seeing how there is evidence of VTs being in the game. Strike is not willing to hammer, either because (A)he is a town power role, (B) he is mafia, or (C) he is a survivor. He says he doesn't want to hammer because he thinks we should test chap's offer to hammer, but there might also be an underlying motive for not wanting to hammer. Also, I have some specualtion about night actions (yes, I'm doing exactly what strike and rodion did): It is logical for the busdriver to busdrive Rodion with someone tonight, because then Mafia has a chance of hitting the town bomb instead of a power role. But if the mafia take this into consideration, they might target rodion knowing they'll get someone else. So I advise the busdriver to not busdrive rodion tonight. About betiko and Rodion, I forgot what I said about this earlier, but I don't get the connection. As rodion said, its meta-gaming wifom and not a strong case. But I must say that bomb is a clever fakeclaim from Rodion if he isn't actually bomb. I was disbelieving at first, remembering saf's bomb fakeclaim in teamCC (he ended up being a cultie), but then remembered he actually was town bomb (correct me if I'm wrong), so I don't doubt there would be a bomb again in an official game. Yes, metagaming, but was there a bomb in Futurama? Also I must say it is interesting to see two legendary Mafia members like Strike and Rodion battle each other.
FASTPOSTED
-SG7 ( )

[shieldgenerator7]

CRASH! I got fastposted and then my spacing got all mixed up! Sorry for the big block of continuous text, but NMF!

-SG7 ( )

[MoB Deadly]

CRASH! I got fastposted and then my spacing got all mixed up! Sorry for the big block of continuous text, but NMF!

-SG7 ( )

yeah things didnt quite format the way i wanted them to either :-/

[Epitaph1]

Good gravy, guys. That was a ton to go through.

I'm inclined to think that Rodion is bluffing and would put my chips behind having chap or Dazza hammer. My biggest concern is that chap in particular is a lyncher and might end the game. I've never played with a lyncher, and jonty pointed out that the game would not be over, but I've read other places that it could end a small game (is this considered a small enough game for that to be a possibility?).

Either way, I'm all for resolving this matter today. If Rodion is indeed telling the truth and we plan on busdriving him, the odds seem pretty low that we could switch him with the mafia's target. That is assuming we have a busdriver in the town.

[dazza2008]

I still think lynching Rodion is the best course of action now. If we don't it will be hanging over us the whole game. We will not know if he is scum or not until he is dead.

I think we should get him to L-1 and hammer. Chap or me whoever you all want to.

[Leitz]

I agree with everybody else. I believe it is necessary for the game that Rodion should be lynched. There are a lot of people unsure about his claim, he is been an point of discussion from the beginning of this game and although some don't believe in the Rodion case (the scum??), most of us haven't been convinced about Rodion being innocent.

That would leave us deciding one more thing: dazza or chap?

[MeDeFe]

Considering that this is an official game and that there will be medals for the winners, I don't think there's a lyncher among us any more than I think there's a jester.

[Rodion]

Huge sigh.

By sending a "volunteer" to hammer, you're basically assuring we'll lose a VT. We'll probably be down 5 town players after N2's kill and the remaining 11 players will be either 7 town - 4 mafia or 6 town - 4 mafia - 1 SK. We can not afford to lose town.

Do you guys know what a beloved princess is? It's a disastrous town burden, a role that makes us miss a day if he she dies, essentially generating back to back nights (and back to back mafia NKs), but I digress. If you understand the simple statistical concept that we need as many day kills as possible and as few night kills as possible, you'll conclude some simple things:

a) someone has to be lynched everyday (with very few exceptions, such as some D1s or MYLO scenarios)
b) my bomb power role effectively means we have 2 lynches (thus, back to back days, the opposite of a beloved princess). First lynch is me, second "lynch" is the person that is collectively voted to hammer
c) by saying you don't want a lynch, you're diminishing the proportion of town involved kills (lynches) the game will have and augmenting the proportion of mafia decided kills (NKs). By asking me to self-hammer, you're effectively giving up a lynch, thus play the proportions suboptimally

Some people are afraid of exposing town power roles by getting certain people to lynch, but the fact is that we have a shot at a 2nd lynch today and thus we need discussion and thus we need a target and thus that target will need to claim (and while that target can be a power role, he can also be scum). I don't think our odds of catching scum with this 2nd lynch are good if we pick someone that volunteered (mafia volunteering for brownie points could backfire immensely if people allowed the volunteer to hammer, unless the volunteer is a bulletproof godfather), thus we need to keep playing the game, look for another lead, collectively "vote" that he should be my hammer and then move on to N2.

The 2 options I'm currently contemplating are:

a) vote on someone to die by hammering me (for now, I still think this is the best option)
b) vote on someone to die by lynch, thus keeping me alive (Swifte and Medefe bring good points which I still have to think through, but I'm not sold this is the best option)

This is what I'm NOT contemplating:

c) no lynch
d) Rodion self-hammer
e) Rodion hammered by volunteer (Chap/Dazza)

[Rodion]

This game is big enough for it to continue after a possible lyncher win. That said, I don't think Chap is a lyncher (I just mention lyncher en passant as a reason why L-2 is a better place to claim than L-1).

[betiko]

I didn't read rodion's post yet but i wanted a vote count:

Vote Count

Rodion (5)- strike, chap, shield,jonty, Mob
chapcrap(1)- Rodion
No Lynch (1)- betiko

medefe unvoted and rodion is back at l-3

has not voted: medefe, leitz, dazza, epitaph, swifte, jimfinn, trini

hope i got this right and didn't miss stuff cause i did it quickly

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

[betiko]

Just read rodion's post;and I am seeing things a bit diferently:
1-1 rodion is bomb and we find a scum to hammer
1-0 rodion is a scum and we don't know if the killer is a town or a townie
0-2 rodion is bomb and we make a townie kill him

This gives one good, one very good, and one terrible outcome. now can you do us a favor and be scum rodion? lol
The average of these 3 outcomes is pretty neutral; and the fact of losing one kill oportunity makes it become a good solution, I think you are right.
I am open to vote for someone to hammer.

unvote

[betiko]

EBWOP:
1-0 rodion is a scum and we don't know if the killer is a scum or a townie

[dazza2008]

The more this goes on the more I think Rodion is scum and wants more info out before we lynch him. I think we should get rid of him without exposing more roles.

[MoB Deadly]

e) Rodion hammered by volunteer (Chap/Dazza)

So do you believe that chap is no longer scum?

[MoB Deadly]

Wow I got stupider as I read my own post, lets try this again:

EBWOP

This is what I'm NOT contemplating:

c) no lynch
d) Rodion self-hammer
e) Rodion hammered by volunteer (Chap/Dazza)

So do you no longer believe that chap is scum?

[Rodion]

So do you no longer believe that chap is scum?

I believe his odds of being scum dropped when he volunteered to hammer so quickly, unless he is the godfather and intends to explain his non-kill with a bulletproof townie claim. I feel similar with Dazza.

I'd rather invest in someone that seems scared. For the record, the window for playing zen has now closed (it becomes even more WIFOM than when Chap/Dazza did it),