first attack move...

siberiancygnus · Post by **siberiancygnus** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 4:30 pm

anyone know what are the odds of a 6v3 dice roll winning (ie first attack roll ) ?

siberiancygnus · Post by **siberiancygnus** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 4:30 pm

....i mean if i hit auto attack...

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 4:37 pm

77% chance of attacker conquering the country.

Coleman · Post by **Coleman** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 4:47 pm

However the chances aren't very good that you'll conquer it without loosing 3 or more.

siberiancygnus · Post by **siberiancygnus** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 4:53 pm

tnx guys

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:02 pm

Coleman wrote:However the chances aren't very good that you'll conquer it without loosing 3 or more.

Chances of conquering country without losing 3 or more armies: 45%

OK, here's the whole thing:

Chances of conquering country while losing:

0 armies, 25%
1 army, 21%
2 armies, 17%
3 armies, 10%
4 armies, 4%

yeti_c · Post by **yeti_c** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:19 pm

tahitiwahini wrote:
Coleman wrote:However the chances aren't very good that you'll conquer it without loosing 3 or more.

Chances of conquering country without losing 3 or more armies: 45%

OK, here's the whole thing:

Chances of conquering country while losing:

0 armies, 25%
1 army, 21%
2 armies, 17%
3 armies, 10%
4 armies, 4%

Don't forget...

Chance of not getting country 23%

C.

Coleman · Post by **Coleman** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:26 pm

My experience is it is almost always better to hold back. Especially if the game is unlimited fortifications. Most players like to group as much together as they can leaving 1s all over the place. That's when you want to strike.

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:45 pm

Chance of cashing a set of cards in round 4 if you get a card in each of the first three rounds: 33%

Chance of cashing a set of cards in round 4 if you skip getting a card in the first round: 0%

If you are the first to go in the game (flat rate of course) I maintain it's often a good strategy to make a 6v3 attack. Especially if the attack occurs in a place where you can reinforce from other countries not participating in the attack. Especially if your attack helps you accomplish or make progress toward an important strategic objective.

If you are unforunate enough that all your countries are isolated, meaning that you cannot attack the same country from more than one of your own countries, then I think it's worth not attacking because you're initial deployment doesn't allow you to recover from a potentially disastrous battle. In this case, sacrifice getting the card, and build up for the second round.

Bigfalcon65 · Post by **Bigfalcon65** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:45 pm

no build and dont attack to much, let the other players get cards set yourself up and then when other players are dicking around get a bonus knock one out and get his cards

yeti_c · Post by **yeti_c** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 6:30 pm

Bigfalcon65 wrote:no build and dont attack to much, let the other players get cards set yourself up and then when other players are dicking around get a bonus knock one out and get his cards

Just like that...

C.

IronE.GLE · Post by **IronE.GLE** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 7:05 pm

I used to think that getting a card was important in the early rounds. Now it's not uncommon for me to bypass attacking in the first 3 rounds unless a bonus territory has become easy taking.

sully800 · Post by **sully800** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 8:48 pm

tahitiwahini wrote:Chance of cashing a set of cards in round 4 if you get a card in each of the first three rounds: 33%

Chance of cashing a set of cards in round 4 if you skip getting a card in the first round: 0%

If you are the first to go in the game (flat rate of course) I maintain it's often a good strategy to make a 6v3 attack. Especially if the attack occurs in a place where you can reinforce from other countries not participating in the attack. Especially if your attack helps you accomplish or make progress toward an important strategic objective.

If you are unforunate enough that all your countries are isolated, meaning that you cannot attack the same country from more than one of your own countries, then I think it's worth not attacking because you're initial deployment doesn't allow you to recover from a potentially disastrous battle. In this case, sacrifice getting the card, and build up for the second round.

If its an escalating game, you usually don't want to be the first one to cash in, especially not to start round 4. However your theory can make sense in flat rate where you have a shot at 10 extra armies before anyone else even gets a set and that extra boost can get you a continent.

AAFitz · Post by **AAFitz** » Tue Apr 17, 2007 9:05 pm

sully beat me to it on escalating sometimes i go for it sometimes I dont...ive seen people take 3 territories on their first move...so it all depends on if you are lucky...but it is safer to just deploy

on flat rate, if you dont have a mixed set and everyone else does....those three armies you saved arent going to help much...i usually go till my last army to get a card...