Trends for 2018

[DoomYoshi]

There are quite a few articles talking about trends in interior decor, fashion, web design etc. This is for research and thinking trends. It doesn't have to be for next year specifically, since research takes a few years to get going. What are the good and bad trends that you notice in your field?

Here are some:
1) Statistical Skepticism: For too long in the life-sciences, the biologists have thrown ANOVA tables at everything. People are going to start (rightly) questioning this use of that table, especially in field studies where sample sizes can't be controlled.
2) Research Humility: A good example of this is the whole wheat bread debate. Some scientists legitimately believe that whole wheat bread is no better or actually worse for you. They do this by comparing certain things that they can measure after people eat bread. Research humility would be acknowledging that there are still things we can't measure. This trend has been a long time coming (Lindley wrote The End of Physics in 1994, Horgan wrote The End of Science in 1996, for more recent examples, see Stannard The End of Discovery [2010] or this article)
3) China: It seems they are finally cracking down on the crap. Basically, the country values personal achievement over everything so publishing for them is a matter of life-or-death. It's no surprise that over 50% of all research from China is fabricated and eventually retracted.
4) ArXiv for Life Sciences: This will probably never happen but it's my number one wishlist (yes, I know there is a biostats section). I was surprised to learn this year that most published math journal articles have errors. To see the comments on those errors and the correction, you need to go to the arXiv anyway, so I'm not quite sure why there are still mathematical journals.

Outside of my field:
1) Linguistic Turn 2.0: Words don't create Platonic ideals (original linguistic turn), they don't describe platonic ideals (classic philosophy) rather they are ideals in and of themselves. Basically, a conception of reality that allows for those of us who perceive the world through language instead of through whatever else the rest of you use.

[waauw]

coming trend for 2018:

Doomyoshism
Noun

[mass noun]
1. Starting a philosophical thread nobody cares about
1.1 sophistry that leads nowhere
'A certain special one was infecting the forum with doomyoshisms.'

[Symmetry]

Most of those are long running, even decades old (being sceptical about statistics? Really?)

Difficult to predict new trends, but my guesses...

1) A backlash against sexual assault claims. Bit of a no-brainer, this one. Obama era over-reach plus a Trump-era dismissal of women as liars.

2) A growing acceptance of transexuals. The religious right over played its hand this year. Things will get worse before they get better, but as with other minority groups, the fear is easily dispelled by reality.

3) Mental illness vs guns will become even more of a football. Linking it to crime was always problematic, but using it as an excuse will be more and more troublesome as more cash goes to gun lobbying and less towards healthcare.

4) Oddly enough- the NFL. I think it's in trouble next year. Head injuries, political opposition (the VP went to a game just so he could be seen leaving this year), college level scandals...

So anyway, those are my dodgy predictions.

[waauw]

1) A backlash against sexual assault claims. Bit of a no-brainer, this one. Obama era over-reach plus a Trump-era dismissal of women as liars.

Funny you're saying that. I encountered an article about it just a few hours ago.

The Dark Side of Outing Men’s Sexual Misdeeds
Generalization of men is the enemy of understanding

With the recent spate of revelations about powerful men behaving inappropriately toward non-consenting people without power—including women, girls, boys and men—I have some concern that, as a culture, we are quick to jump to the easiest conclusion: that all men are libidinous beasts, unable to control their impulses, and prone to harmful, pathological behavior. There is a name for where this leads: Misandry, meaning hatred of men. It corresponds to misogyny, hatred of women.
...

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/understanding-the-erotic-code/201712/the-dark-side-outing-men-s-sexual-misdeeds?collection=1109403

[mrswdk]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

[Symmetry]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

I didn't mention race in any of my predictions.

[Dukasaur]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Any time I get a chance (which unfortunately is not too often) I get the BBC feed.

I remember a few years back when South Sudan became independent. Huge story on the BBC. Not a single mention in the American media, anywhere that I saw.

[riskllama]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

perhaps he is shopping for/trying to remain relevant to an american boyfriend?

[Symmetry]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

perhaps he is shopping for/trying to remain relevant to an american boyfriend?

Perhaps, and there is obviously more evidence for this, you're trying to use homosexuality as an excuse to discredit me.

Seems a little lame, llama.

[riskllama]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

perhaps he is shopping for/trying to remain relevant to an american boyfriend?

Perhaps, and there is obviously more evidence for this, you're trying to use homosexuality as an excuse to discredit me.

Seems a little lame, llama.

pardon?

[Symmetry]

pardon?

granted

[riskllama]

try the other definition, maybe...

[DirtyDishSoap]

More or less the same old bullshit from '16 trickling into '18. Sums up next years prediction.

[Bernie Sanders]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Any time I get a chance (which unfortunately is not too often) I get the BBC feed.

I remember a few years back when South Sudan became independent. Huge story on the BBC. Not a single mention in the American media, anywhere that I saw.

Stop watching Fox and friends

[Bernie Sanders]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

perhaps he is shopping for/trying to remain relevant to an american boyfriend?

Perhaps, and there is obviously more evidence for this, you're trying to use homosexuality as an excuse to discredit me.

Seems a little lame, llama.

[DoomYoshi]

(being sceptical about statistics? Really?)

Not being skeptical about statistics in general, but skeptical about terrible use of statistics in particular. You might think this is worse in the popular press than in the scientific world, but they are both horrendous at it.

[mrswdk]

I once went to a conference where a government official (not from the UK) stood up on stage and said that 160% of his country's exports went to China.

I also recently saw a great article by a policy analyst which stated that trade at a border post between two of the Central Asian 'stans' had recently decreased by 280%.

[2dimes]

That sounds about turnip percent true.

[MnrToti]

You know you need to put down the American news and go for a walk outside when you’re a British guy whose immediate response to ‘what are next year’s trends?’ is ‘guns’ and ‘NFL head injuries’.

Unfortunately the trend in the UK seems to be towards American-style race politics. ‘Black people’ this and ‘white people’ that. Hopefully 2018 will see that reverse but a bunch of younger recent grads I’ve met recently seem obsessed with ‘cultural appropriation’ so next year’s trend here will probably be towards genocide of white people.

perhaps he is shopping for/trying to remain relevant to an american boyfriend?

Perhaps, and there is obviously more evidence for this, you're trying to use homosexuality as an excuse to discredit me.

Seems a little lame, llama.

What's her name?
I'm asking for a friend.

[riskllama]

mannie quinn?

[karel]

you left wing nuts need to get over the damn gun thing and focus on more important issues

[patches70]

(being sceptical about statistics? Really?)

Not being skeptical about statistics in general, but skeptical about terrible use of statistics in particular. You might think this is worse in the popular press than in the scientific world, but they are both horrendous at it.

The thing about statistics is that if you torture numbers long enough you can get them to say anything you want them to say.

[waauw]

you left wing nuts need to get over the damn gun thing and focus on more important issues

Indeed, like the Trump's rapes and the ongoing inquiry into his treasonous connections to Russia.

[DirtyDishSoap]

you left wing nuts need to get over the damn gun thing and focus on more important issues

Indeed, like the Trump's rapes and the ongoing inquiry into his treasonous connections to Russia.

Excellent suggestion Karel.

[mookiemcgee]

(being sceptical about statistics? Really?)

Not being skeptical about statistics in general, but skeptical about terrible use of statistics in particular. You might think this is worse in the popular press than in the scientific world, but they are both horrendous at it.

There was a great Penn and Teller episode on this subject. But yes, I agree whole heartedly.