Dice analyzer - statistics

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 6:05 am

i have reset my dice analyzer at 25.000 throws because by that time it hadn't reached the promised leveling of percentages. the defender had almost 18% in 6's and i had 17.8% in 3's. plus i was under the ideal stats at all battle outcomes.

so i decided to reset it and watch the progress each day.

please don't be offtopic i want to keep this as clean as possible. it's not a discussion about how fair or unfair the dice are. it's just a topic to watch the progress of the dice. when i'll reach a bigger number of throws we'll draw some conclusions and debate but for now please refrain from cursing/praising the dice/random.org

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 6:06 am

DAY 1 - 12.07.2007

analyzer image:

my most thrown dice of the day: 2
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 5

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 5

my least thrown dice of the day: 6
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 1

my least thrown dice ever: 6
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: i'm under the ideal battle outcomes at all except 2v2 and 2v1

*these are the final results for day 1. i won't be taking any more turns because it seems the dice are getting worse every minute.

Molacole · Post by **Molacole** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:03 am

If I had enough time to fool around with a dice anal yzer I would just create more games instead... :-k

chessplaya · Post by **chessplaya** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:05 am

i see at the end that ur approx tied with defenders dice ?

and u have actually won 36 rolls and lost 31 rolls which is in fact a 5 army win

which is in fact good as i see it!!!

ur dice are normal ... they r not the best but they r not the worst !

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:28 am

chessplaya wrote:i see at the end that ur approx tied with defenders dice ?

and u have actually won 36 rolls and lost 31 rolls which is in fact a 5 army win

which is in fact good as i see it!!!

ur dice are normal ... they r not the best but they r not the worst !

i have edited the second post. please take a look at it now.
anyway i'm not saying i have the best or the worst dice. all i'm doing here is trying to further analyze my dice and maybe draw some conclusions about lucky or unlucky streaks.

also your calculus is wrong.

the Wins / Ties / Loses part is not about how many armies you killed but about how many times you lost a dice throw.

let's say i battle 7 vs 3

first roll i lose 2 troops
second roll i lose 2 more
third i lose 1 and the defender loses 1
fourth i win 1
fifth i win 1.

so the Wins / Ties / Loses will be 2 / 1 / 2 because i won 2 rolls tied 1 and lost 2 rolls but in fact i lost 5 troops and killed just 1.

chessplaya · Post by **chessplaya** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 7:38 am

ok sorry i dont know how this works exactly

:oops:

i didnt mean to offend u as much as i wanted to know some info

Cheers!

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:17 am

DAY 2 - 13.07.2007

analyzer image:

my most thrown dice of the day: 5
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 2

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 5

my least thrown dice of the day: 1
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 1

my least thrown dice ever: 1
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: dramatic improvement from yesterday. i actually managed to hit more 6's and win lots of battles. i'm under the ideal battle outcomes at all except 3v1, 2v2 and 2v1

interesting bits: yesterday was crap. with a lot of games where i lost or got eliminated plus a point drop of over 200 points. however today i managed win some games and actually to recuperate almost 75% of those points.

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:23 am

DAY 3 - 14.07.2007

analyzer image:

my most thrown dice of the day: 2
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 6

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 5

my least thrown dice of the day: 1
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 1

my least thrown dice ever: 1
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: today was worse than yesterday. i've started throwing more 2s while the defender started throwing more 6s. i'm under the ideal battle outcomes at all except 3v1, 2v2 and 2v1

interesting bits: despite having worse dice than yesterday. i would say today was rather good. i managed to recuperate my entire point loss and even achieve a new highscore of 1528. so i'm back again over the 1500 line.

kalishnikov · Post by **kalishnikov** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:38 pm

I'm glad someone's doing this. Good work DiM.

You've had some bad luck since you started this experiment...

gimil · Post by **gimil** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 1:42 pm

kalishnikov wrote:I'm glad someone's doing this. Good work DiM.

You've had some bad luck since you started this experiment...

hes always had back luck . . . just that now hes showing everyone :wink:

luns101 · Post by **luns101** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 1:53 pm

Wow, that is a real asset to the site. Just straight up statistics and the promise of more concrete analysis as you play more games. Thank you. I hate going through statistics, but in this case it was a little fun.

Bean_ · Post by **Bean_** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 2:26 pm

This is great. Can you keep track of your best and worst attack that day and report on it as well? (e.g., lost 6v1, won 8-0)

jaseleo · Post by **jaseleo** » Sat Jul 14, 2007 6:39 pm

watching with interest keep them coming
Thanks
jase

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 8:16 am

thanks for the support guys.

i'll try to add the worst and best battle outcomes of the day like losing 11 vs 1 or winning 5vs25.

also if you're looking for conclusions you'll have to wait for some time. at this moment it's too early to comment.

Velvecarrots · Post by **Velvecarrots** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 8:43 am

I hate to be an ass, but the cup is half empty for you, isn't it DiM?

DiM wrote:i'm under the ideal battle outcomes at all except 3v1, 2v2 and 2v1

Why not "I'm over the ideal battle outcomes in all except 3v2, 1v2, and 1v1"?

Start thinking more positively. Maybe the dice will mimic your positive thinking with more battles won.

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 8:46 am

Velvecarrots wrote:I hate to be an ass, but the cup is half empty for you, isn't it DiM?

DiM wrote:i'm under the ideal battle outcomes at all except 3v1, 2v2 and 2v1

Why not "I'm over the ideal battle outcomes in all except 3v2, 1v2, and 1v1"?

Start thinking more positively. Maybe the dice will mimic your positive thinking with more battles won.

actually if you look at day one i was under the ideal stats at 4 outcomes out of 6. and then the dice improved and i just copy pasted the first sentence and made modifications. :roll:

hopefully at the end of this day i'll say i'm over the ideal stats at all battle outcomes.

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 10:40 am

DAY 4 - 15.07.2007

analyzer image:

my most thrown dice of the day: 6
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 2

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 2

my least thrown dice of the day: 4
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 5

my least thrown dice ever: 4
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: it seems 1 day is bad then 1 is good and so on. so following this logic today was a good day. i've thrown more 6s while the defender started throwing more 2s. despite having better dice than yesterday my battle outcomes have somewhat dropped. now i'm under the ideal battle outcomes at all except 3v1, and 2v1

interesting bits: today i set a new highscore. 1534 points.

worst battle: 7vs1 lost and i lost and also 83vs4 where i lost 16 troops.
best battle: i had 2 battles that seemed really great. 53vs33 i lost just 11 troops and 42 vs 22 where i lost 7.

Molacole · Post by **Molacole** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 11:57 am

If you put that program on somebodies account that had enough common sense to stop rolling the dice after they're getting nowhere then your stats probably wouldn't look so shitty.

What you're doing is good and all (I guess), but you're partly to blame for the horrible rolls you're getting. There is absolutely no way I am going to keep burning troops out (in your case more troops than a 10 set) just to kill off 4 troops.

dim wrote:worst battle: 7vs1 lost and i lost and also 38vs4 where i lost 16 troops.

This is where I fail to see the logic in pressing the attack button...

My dice analyser would never have something like this on it because I would cut my losses and wait until next turn unless it was a do or die situation where in that case I would be dead anyhow so not sure why ANYBODY would keep attacking just for a card unless it was an escilating game and you needed it to cash in to stay alive.

Bean_ · Post by **Bean_** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:38 pm

Interesting -
chances of 38v4 losing 16 = 0.103%
chances of 7v1 losing 6 = 0.329%
chances of 53v33 losing 11 = 1.016%
chances of 42v22 losing 7 = 2.93%

Total dice lines used = 202 (754-552), of which about 53 were used in the above 4 battles.

zarvinny · Post by **zarvinny** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:54 pm

I see that you are 0/4 on your 1vs2 battles which are the kind least likely to win, I agree with that. However, you should have won at least 1 of them. I am currently 0/6. I wonder if anyone is over the ideal limit for those :?:

dividedbyzero · Post by **dividedbyzero** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:07 pm

zarvinny wrote:I see that you are 0/4 on your 1vs2 battles which are the kind least likely to win, I agree with that. However, you should have won at least 1 of them. I am currently 0/6. I wonder if anyone is over the ideal limit for those

Interesting. I never really paid much attention to that stat as I try not to do that sort of battle unless it's crucial. I'm over ideal (a tiny bit) in all *but* 1v2:

Code: Select all

   Actual Stats                           Ideal Stats
3v2 (37.76% / 33.77% / 28.47%)      (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 (66.13% / 33.87%)                   (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 (23.09% / 31.3% / 45.62%)       (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 (58.45% / 41.55%)                   (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 (21.28% / 78.72%)                   (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 (42.4% / 57.6%)                     (41.67% / 58.33%)

Attacker threw 123445 dice.

dbz

The1exile · Post by **The1exile** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 2:30 pm

zarvinny wrote:I see that you are 0/4 on your 1vs2 battles which are the kind least likely to win, I agree with that. However, you should have won at least 1 of them. I am currently 0/6. I wonder if anyone is over the ideal limit for those

me. I'm 5 won 8 lost.

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 3:04 pm

Molacole wrote:If you put that program on somebodies account that had enough common sense to stop rolling the dice after they're getting nowhere then your stats probably wouldn't look so shitty.

What you're doing is good and all (I guess), but you're partly to blame for the horrible rolls you're getting. There is absolutely no way I am going to keep burning troops out (in your case more troops than a 10 set) just to kill off 4 troops.

dim wrote:worst battle: 7vs1 lost and i lost and also 38vs4 where i lost 16 troops.

This is where I fail to see the logic in pressing the attack button...

My dice analyser would never have something like this on it because I would cut my losses and wait until next turn unless it was a do or die situation where in that case I would be dead anyhow so not sure why ANYBODY would keep attacking just for a card unless it was an escilating game and you needed it to cash in to stay alive.

that 7vs1 was my only chance of getting a card

and the 38vs4 is actually 83v4. and it happened in a game where i had already won. those 4 where his last troops.

also i kinda use a lot of autoattack. i swore i'll never use it but i still do

The1exile · Post by **The1exile** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 3:24 pm

DiM wrote:and the 38vs4 is actually 83v4. and it happened in a game where i had already won. those 4 where his last troops.

I wish I could do that, waste my bad luck when it doesn't matter and save the good luck for when it does.

DiM · Post by **DiM** » Sun Jul 15, 2007 9:47 pm

The1exile wrote:
DiM wrote:and the 38vs4 is actually 83v4. and it happened in a game where i had already won. those 4 where his last troops.

I wish I could do that, waste my bad luck when it doesn't matter and save the good luck for when it does.

it doesn't always happen like this.
sometimes when it's really important to kill a guy in an escalating game and start a chain reaction of cashing eliminating cashing again and so on i get bad luck and lose 12vs2. the worst possible time because the next guy finishes what i started and wins. on the other hand i'm down to 10 troops vs the other guy having 100 and i manage to kill 20 with my 10. what's the use?
luck comes and goes when it wants. there's no control over it. if i could find a way to control it i'd be #1 with a few million points. :lol: