Bad judgement?

[Nodachi]

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=2784890

It was the first round and my turn was last. I had 3 on West Australia and 6 on East Australia. New Guinea was owned by someone else with 3, and Indonesia had 1 (by a different player).

I figured I had a chance to take Australia pretty quickly, so I tried to attack New Guinea then Indonesia. I lost though at New Guinea (got pretty desperate, I have 1 person left whereas New Guinea has 2), so the turn was a complete bust. It is pretty obvious that I was suicidal, but I am curious if the idea of trying to take Australia in this situation was bad, or I just got unlucky, or should I have left New Guinea alone and go for Indonesia?

Thank you for your time.

[n00blet]

Sometimes the dice just screw you. Nothing wrong with what you tried, although it is usually a better idea not to leave yourself with only one army on a territory adjacent to an enemy. Although, in an escalating game, the important thing is not continents, but cards. Just get a card and hold on for the storm!

[BaldAdonis]

Not bad, except that you attacked with a 3 against 2 defenders. You could have taken indonesia first to ensure a card.

[BadMoonRising]

6 on 3 is never gauranteed. Everyone has horror stories about bad dice.

The best strategy can and will be ruined by luck.

[Nodachi]

Duly noted. Next time the situation comes I will play for the card first and not be so optimistic with a 6 vs. 3. Thanks guys!

[e_i_pi]

6 v 3 (which is really 5 v 3) has only a 3 in 4 chance of winning, and that's if you go down to last man. Also, Australia is like a red flag to most people. Admiteddly it is pretty much the best starting position on Classic, but you have to be able to defend it, because as soon as you get it, it's as if everyone thinks you're Hitler.

Going for the 1 on Indo is the right choice, leaving the troops as 4 on Indo, 2 on West Aus, then next turn go 6 from East Aus (if there havent been forts) and try there. If you dont get it, you have a 4 on Indo, 4 on EA, and next turn you're pretty much guaranteed to get it. But it all depends on whats happening outside too.

I don't like to take Aus unless I have 2 on each of the Aus/NG, and 3-4 more on Indo than whatever is on Siam, or near Siam.

[Nodachi]

"6 v 3 (which is really 5 v 3) has only a 3 in 4 chance of winning, and that's if you go down to last man."

I never thought about it that way, that it is actually 5 people and not 6. If you don't mind me asking, is there a place where the odds of common situations are listed? Also, what would you do if the player with New Guinea in his turn placed 3 people on New Guinea?

[Thezzaruz]

If you don't mind me asking, is there a place where the odds of common situations are listed?

Link to a site that allows you to calculate the odds of any battle with up to 50 100 armies on each side.

Also, what would you do if the player with New Guinea in his turn placed 3 people on New Guinea?

If it's Esc then you forget it and look at other places to find card-battles.
Otherwise it's up to what you feel you can do in other places v how hard it will be to get New G, having a continent is good but only holding Aussie leaves you a bit out of it.

[Nodachi]

If you don't mind me asking, is there a place where the odds of common situations are listed?

Link to a site that allows you to calculate the odds of any battle with up to 50 100 armies on each side.

Also, what would you do if the player with New Guinea in his turn placed 3 people on New Guinea?

If it's Esc then you forget it and look at other places to find card-battles.
Otherwise it's up to what you feel you can do in other places v how hard it will be to get New G, having a continent is good but only holding Aussie leaves you a bit out of it.

Thank you for the link. It is helpful, there were a lot of situations where I thought the defense/attacker would do good and the site would disprove it.

Also, thank you for the Aussie comment. I will try to not look at it in higher esteem than I do with other continents. In that same game I ended up getting Australia, but my opponent had everything else, and I lost .

[gp24176281]

My 2 pennies,

It's not about how u played the situation. U go for the 3, u take higher risk. U play for the 1, u take lower risk. Suit yourself for your style.

It's more about patiance. Whatever your choice was, stop in time. Don't let the frustration lead u for suacidal game. Stop in time to ensure "there is tommorow". This advice will be true in alot of other situations.

gp

[Nodachi]

"It's more about patiance. Whatever your choice was, stop in time."

Quote of the year ^_^. I have been calming down and sometimes after a bad roll let the computer sit for a minute and dice battles have been a lot easier ^_^.