PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[dakky21]

You are misunderstanding the argument, or purposefully misrepresenting it. Right now the coin has been flipped once. What are the odds the next 9 flips will all be heads? I promise you, the mathematical truth is not 50%.

Of course it's not. But if some miracle happens and the coin flips 9 times to a head, 10th flip has 50% chance to flip to head again. Chance that it won't flip to head once in 10 flips is really low and I agree on that.

That is not the case here. What are the chances that if you flip the coin twice you get tails at least once? 75% Thrice? 87.5%

The second coin flip won't have 75% and the third won't have 87.5% to flip to scum, they will always have 50%.
BUT, once in a 3 times to flip to scum is a 87.5% chance. Once in a 10 times, the chance is 99.99%.
BUT, it's still 50-50 when the coin flips. You ever played roulette or video poker? If you did, you'd know that a series of 6-7 black or red is not so uncommon, despite the low probability.

[william18]

You are misunderstanding the argument, or purposefully misrepresenting it. Right now the coin has been flipped once. What are the odds the next 9 flips will all be heads? I promise you, the mathematical truth is not 50%.

Of course it's not. But if some miracle happens and the coin flips 9 times to a head, 10th flip has 50% chance to flip to head again. Chance that it won't flip to head once in 10 flips is really low and I agree on that.

That is not the case here. What are the chances that if you flip the coin twice you get tails at least once? 75% Thrice? 87.5%

The second coin flip won't have 75% and the third won't have 87.5% to flip to scum, they will always have 50%.
BUT, once in a 3 times to flip to scum is a 87.5% chance. Once in a 10 times, the chance is 99.99%.
BUT, it's still 50-50 when the coin flips. You ever played roulette or video poker? If you did, you'd know that a series of 6-7 black or red is not so uncommon, despite the low probability.

So you do know how to calculate the probabilities? Why were you being purposefully dense for the last few days?

[Marashu]

The whole discussion around Dakky is getting silly, though. You're all just repeating the same arguments over and over and over and it's getting nowhere. Mandy and William, quit your crusade against Dakky, we know your views by now, you're not helping anyone.

Agreed. Dakky is the one person who doesn't need to be convinced by it anyway.

Where does this leave us? I kinda believe william, which means mandy is also town. Dakky seems to be town for now. After rereading, I rescind my doubt about mitch's role. He must have known what he said about Tim, since he assumed electric with surfboard meant chinchou, a water/electric pokemon, rather than surfing pikachu. Aage is most likely town. That leaves mafia among strike, hotshot, and aog. Hotshot going for AoG is odd if he is mafia, what with the other tempting wagons. Strike's power isn't really towny, but isn't necessarily mafia either. I do not think dakky is a water type, and the only water type we have seen so far was a mason, so AoG, if a water type like he claims to be, might be the other mason. So right now, I honestly do not know where to place my vote.

Fp'd by william

[dakky21]

So you do know how to calculate the probabilities? Why were you being purposefully dense for the last few days?

I'm still saying that each coin toss is a case for itself and that it's still 50-50 each time you throw it.
While one in three has 87.5%, and one in ten 99.99%, it can still happen third time or tenth time, depending on luck which is still 50-50 on each throw.

[william18]

So you do know how to calculate the probabilities? Why were you being purposefully dense for the last few days?

I'm still saying that each coin toss is a case for itself and that it's still 50-50 each time you throw it.
While one in three has 87.5%, and one in ten 99.99%, it can still happen third time or tenth time, depending on luck which is still 50-50 on each throw.

Yes, but you have to admit that since we don't actually have proof you are town, we must start from night 2 to calculate the odds of you still being town. Just because you said so doesn't mean it's true. Aage said you wouldn't claim the sk portion if you were still town. Im wondering, even if you were town, why would you claim it. Do you want us to lynch you and have us tie your wc to town? Or did you think claiming a double edged role will get you town points?

One more question. Do you think your role is beneficial to town, or more likely to hurt town?

[dakky21]

So you do know how to calculate the probabilities? Why were you being purposefully dense for the last few days?

I'm still saying that each coin toss is a case for itself and that it's still 50-50 each time you throw it.
While one in three has 87.5%, and one in ten 99.99%, it can still happen third time or tenth time, depending on luck which is still 50-50 on each throw.

Yes, but you have to admit that since we don't actually have proof you are town, we must start from night 2 to calculate the odds of you still being town. Just because you said so doesn't mean it's true. Aage said you wouldn't claim the sk portion if you were still town. Im wondering, even if you were town, why would you claim it. Do you want us to lynch you and have us tie your wc to town? Or did you think claiming a double edged role will get you town points?

One more question. Do you think your role is beneficial to town, or more likely to hurt town?

Mitch claimed cop/detective. Flavor or not. No one counter claimed. Mitch says I'm town. I say I'm town. It means it's true. From my point of view at least. I understand that you are skeptical and you should be, question everything.

My current role is beneficial to town IF I hit scum during the night. If not, then it will hurt town. But, as aage said, we can have a vote on who should I target and that way it will be beneficial in every way.

[aage]

madmitch - claimed flavour cop
This might be a huge mistake but I'm going to assume that Mitch is town. His posts have been regular-level weird to me. It's very possible that a scumbuddy told him to fake claim flavour cop after his defence of Rish yesterday and he rushed into it, but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

dakky21 - claimed weird vigi
I'd rather have Dakky shoot someone than lynch him today. We can narrow it down pretty well I think, and I'll take any shot on mafia we can get.

Marashu - ??
Asking for William's 2nd WC was a good move, but I haven't seen anything from him that jumped out as town.

HotShot53 - ??
Seems town, Mandy's point on him and Mitch is pretty good.

mandalorian2298 - ??
Mandy's recently acquired blinders in his efforts to lynch Dakky are quite scummy imo. I believe Dakky is more of a threat to mafia than to town at the moment, assuming he's truthful. We have several claimed roles and near confirmed towns, and if we limit his spray it's way more likely to hit mafia. He was fourth on the Rish wagon iirc, which is a reasonable moment to start bussing a teammate. His play so far hasn't particularly impressed me as town, and he's a good enough player to hide in plain sight as scum.

william18 - claimed weird JOAT
I don't really know if I buy William's claim. His second WC also doesn't seem very legit to me - 3 shots at one of his roles and survive til day 6 (= 5 nights) doesn't really match up. His sanity check also seems weird to me, or at least not something I'd consider. Maybe it was a smart move, idk.
"You speed up the end game, which is bad for town." --> maybe it's bad for you, considering the 2nd WC you claimed, but it's not bad for town. Imo, the more kills we can get that are not controlled by the mafia, the better.

Army of GOD - ???
I think he's town, won't know for certain until he claims or dies but for now I'm confident enough.

aage - me, you all guessed correctly, my role is in fact town MVP and I know all the mafia

strike wolf - proven to have PR-distributing role
Doesn't really prove alignment but he's sensible so far. I agree with his assessment of mitch+dakky(+???) vs will+???(+???), but I'm wary he's presenting a false dilemma. I'm



William reporting on a possible busdriver makes me think that the busdriver is town - if he were scum, they'd just swap me with player X to divert any doc saves on me. Since I'm still alive, I think any busdriver would be town if there are any.
If there is a busdriver, they could claim and confirm William and Mandy as town (why would he know that Mandy and I were busdriven if he was mafia?) and we'd narrow down the list of suspects even further + avoid a mislynch on town investigator. I think this is a sensible course of action because we really need to lynch scum today. If nobody claims busdriver, or someone does and swapped different players, we can reassess our options. Just don't rush into anything yet, we still have plenty of time and we can request a 48 hour extension if 3 people ask for it.


I'm gonna wait with my vote until a busdriver does or does not claim, since the entire lynch depends on it. Unclaimed people, even if you aren't busdriver, just post "oh and i'm not busdriver" or something.
(Oh, and i'm also not a busdriver if you hadn't noticed.)



Strike, give me the PR tonight, with the same vowel (o). I wanna know if you still have it. It's gonna make my posts slightly unreadable but i'm fine with that. I'm not gonna take no for an answer, you weren't gonna use it anyway.

[dakky21]

Strike, give me the PR tonight, with the same vowel (o). I wanna know if you still have it. It's gonna make my posts slightly unreadable but i'm fine with that. I'm not gonna take no for an answer, you weren't gonna use it anyway.

It would be better if he gives it to me. I'll get lynched tomorrow anyway and I can write posts in notepad and use "find & replace" to replace all "o" with zeros.

[aage]

Strike, give me the PR tonight, with the same vowel (o). I wanna know if you still have it. It's gonna make my posts slightly unreadable but i'm fine with that. I'm not gonna take no for an answer, you weren't gonna use it anyway.

It would be better if he gives it to me. I'll get lynched tomorrow anyway and I can write posts in notepad and use "find & replace" to replace all "o" with zeros.

I can do the same thing while being 100% sure the PR is active. Unless you're happy to kill yourself through the PR, thus verifying it, I'd prefer it on me.

[strike wolf]

unvote william I can believe that there would be ano there investigative role in this game not 100% but confident enough for now that I don't feel he is the correct lynch. My biggest question: if you wanted the game to reach 6 days, why not choose doctor and thus help reduce average kills to extend the game?

Involving dakky: I ultimately believe he is telling the truth. It could be as will said that he provided a false contingency (or a real one in case he has flipped) in a roundabout way to get town cred bUT that seems like a really risky strategy. More likely it was dakky being overly honest withouto considering the complications which I feel is something much more likely for town to do than an SK who is more likely to be overly cautious.

@aage: I can only use each vowel once. So I have A, E, I, U, Y.


Busdricer: I would also lean town on bus driver assuming Will is telling the truth. I am going to disregard sanity as the role seems unlikely to be sanity dependant with its set up. The only situation that makes sense for the bus driver to be scum would be if Aage was also scum and as has been said, he's been very pro town.

[mandalorian2298]

You are misunderstanding the argument, or purposefully misrepresenting it. Right now the coin has been flipped once. What are the odds the next 9 flips will all be heads? I promise you, the mathematical truth is not 50%.

Of course it's not. But if some miracle happens and the coin flips 9 times to a head, 10th flip has 50% chance to flip to head again. Chance that it won't flip to head once in 10 flips is really low and I agree on that.

That is not the case here. What are the chances that if you flip the coin twice you get tails at least once? 75% Thrice? 87.5%

The second coin flip won't have 75% and the third won't have 87.5% to flip to scum, they will always have 50%.
BUT, once in a 3 times to flip to scum is a 87.5% chance. Once in a 10 times, the chance is 99.99%.
BUT, it's still 50-50 when the coin flips. You ever played roulette or video poker? If you did, you'd know that a series of 6-7 black or red is not so uncommon, despite the low probability.

Say no more, I give up. Good luck with that.

@aage You're going to love this so much: I am the bus driver.

"But Mandy, why have you switched yourself with the Town MVP, you scummy sumster!?"

Because my Personal Objective was to get target by two or more players on the same "turn" (meaning Night). "So", I asked myself, "who is most likely to get targeted this Night?" Well, Town MVPs usually get targeted a lot!

I was cool with taking a hit for you, what with you MVPeeing all over the place and all, but I felt pretty confident that you're going to get some protection as well so I wasn't too worried.

Of course, I had to consider the possibility that someone was going to try to kill me and get you instead, but I decided that I'm being silly and that I'm to likable for anyone to want to kill me. Humble, too.

I would like to thank this opportunity to thank william for wasting his investigative role on the town MVP, since it all turned out so good in the end. For me. I won my PO, since both william and me targeted me!

[aage]

Lol. You're an insane genius Mandy. I slightly love you.


This is going to leave me to vote Marashu.

[aage]

Who did you drive N1?

[aage]

Also, did you get alerted by DY that you completed your 2nd wincon?

[mandalorian2298]

Lol. You're an insane genius Mandy. I slightly love you.


This is going to leave me to vote Marashu.

I suspect that it's the whole 'Bodyguard' thing *cue Whitney Houston music*

Who did you drive N1?

I've driven Mitch and dakky on Night 1. I had no real read at that point and I remember thinking at the time that this could result in amusing hijinks of some sort (partly due the fact that I was slightly tipsy when I was sending my choice). In retrospect, it would have been smarter if I just switched myself with someone as I could have maybe won my PO on Night 1.

Also, did you get alerted by DY that you completed your 2nd wincon?

I did get allerted that I have completed my personal wincon.

...

And so did you, apparently. Congrats.

[william18]

So you do know how to calculate the probabilities? Why were you being purposefully dense for the last few days?

I'm still saying that each coin toss is a case for itself and that it's still 50-50 each time you throw it.
While one in three has 87.5%, and one in ten 99.99%, it can still happen third time or tenth time, depending on luck which is still 50-50 on each throw.

Yes, but you have to admit that since we don't actually have proof you are town, we must start from night 2 to calculate the odds of you still being town. Just because you said so doesn't mean it's true. Aage said you wouldn't claim the sk portion if you were still town. Im wondering, even if you were town, why would you claim it. Do you want us to lynch you and have us tie your wc to town? Or did you think claiming a double edged role will get you town points?

One more question. Do you think your role is beneficial to town, or more likely to hurt town?

Mitch claimed cop/detective. Flavor or not. No one counter claimed. Mitch says I'm town. I say I'm town. It means it's true. From my point of view at least. I understand that you are skeptical and you should be, question everything.

My current role is beneficial to town IF I hit scum during the night. If not, then it will hurt town. But, as aage said, we can have a vote on who should I target and that way it will be beneficial in every way.

Mitch said you were more of a fool than a murderer. That in no way means you are town. I don't really like leaving Dakky alive, since this course of action has alot more variance.

I'm also wondering, why we are assuming a vig did the kill night 2. I haven't heard any convincing points that it was a vig as opposed to a mafia.

[aage]

Mitch said you were more of a fool than a murderer. That in no way means you are town. I don't really like leaving Dakky alive, since this course of action has alot more variance.

I'm also wondering, why we are assuming a vig did the kill night 2. I haven't heard any convincing points that it was a vig as opposed to a mafia.

Cause it seems extremely unlikely to me that Mafia would voluntarily hit Tim with their nightkill.

Also, did you get alerted by DY that you completed your 2nd wincon?

I did get allerted that I have completed my personal wincon.

...

And so did you, apparently. Congrats.

Turns out my damn inbox has been jammed full for a week now so I have no idea. Just wanted to know

[william18]

@ Mandy, I don't think it was a waste, especially after seeing a suicidal townie, and a person die for a PR. Perhaps a bit cautious.

Also, is it just me, or is the search function on this site abysmal?

[madmitch]

@ Will , I never said I was more a fool than murderer, it was Dakky Iwas talking about , skimming is kind of scummy, also claiming another investigating role is possible but not plausible

[HotShot53]

@ Will , I never said I was more a fool than murderer, it was Dakky Iwas talking about , skimming is kind of scummy, also claiming another investigating role is possible but not plausible

Umm... he quoted dakky when he just said that, and was referring to dakky... it's you who are skimming his posts now lol.

As for his role, I've seen enough craziness in this game to believe it. I'm almost more surprised by a standard claim like bus driver.

@Aage, what makes you think AoG is town? I haven't seen anything he's done to give that impression...

[william18]

So you do know how to calculate the probabilities? Why were you being purposefully dense for the last few days?

I'm still saying that each coin toss is a case for itself and that it's still 50-50 each time you throw it.
While one in three has 87.5%, and one in ten 99.99%, it can still happen third time or tenth time, depending on luck which is still 50-50 on each throw.

Yes, but you have to admit that since we don't actually have proof you are town, we must start from night 2 to calculate the odds of you still being town. Just because you said so doesn't mean it's true. Aage said you wouldn't claim the sk portion if you were still town. Im wondering, even if you were town, why would you claim it. Do you want us to lynch you and have us tie your wc to town? Or did you think claiming a double edged role will get you town points?

One more question. Do you think your role is beneficial to town, or more likely to hurt town?

Mitch claimed cop/detective. Flavor or not. No one counter claimed. Mitch says I'm town. I say I'm town. It means it's true. From my point of view at least. I understand that you are skeptical and you should be, question everything.

My current role is beneficial to town IF I hit scum during the night. If not, then it will hurt town. But, as aage said, we can have a vote on who should I target and that way it will be beneficial in every way.

Mitch said you were more of a fool than a murderer. That in no way means you are town. I don't really like leaving Dakky alive, since this course of action has alot more variance.

I'm also wondering, why we are assuming a vig did the kill night 2. I haven't heard any convincing points that it was a vig as opposed to a mafia.

@ Will , I never said I was more a fool than murderer, it was Dakky Iwas talking about , skimming is kind of scummy, also claiming another investigating role is possible but not plausible

So after mandy pretty much confirmed the nature of my investigative role, mitch is still doing this.

[mandalorian2298]

Mitch said you were more of a fool than a murderer. That in no way means you are town. I don't really like leaving Dakky alive, since this course of action has alot more variance.

I'm also wondering, why we are assuming a vig did the kill night 2. I haven't heard any convincing points that it was a vig as opposed to a mafia.

Cause it seems extremely unlikely to me that Mafia would voluntarily hit Tim with their nightkill.

Also, did you get alerted by DY that you completed your 2nd wincon?

I did get allerted that I have completed my personal wincon.

...

And so did you, apparently. Congrats.

Turns out my damn inbox has been jammed full for a week now so I have no idea. Just wanted to know

Oh, I missunderstood. I thought that you are testing me by calling it a '2nd wincon' instead of 'personal wincon', so I thought that you received one too.

[mandalorian2298]

@william, it wasn't a waste from the Town's perspective, mearly from my selfish one.

As for mitch's suspicousness, you must take into account that the testimony the veracity of your investigative role comes from the guy whom you have cleared with that role which doesn't count for much. I suggest that you find a scum next Night, and if he then vauches for you you shalt be risen above reproach.

[dakky21]

Hotshot voting AoG and aage voting Marashu are a waste of votes. We'll end the day without a lynch. Yes, we do have 2 more days, but since we can't agree, I think we should prepare for my vig kill. Townies, say who would you like to be targeted. Since we got more votes than mafia, agree on someone. I'll pick the candidate with most votes.

[william18]

Hotshot voting AoG and aage voting Marashu are a waste of votes. We'll end the day without a lynch. Yes, we do have 2 more days, but since we can't agree, I think we should prepare for my vig kill. Townies, say who would you like to be targeted. Since we got more votes than mafia, agree on someone. I'll pick the candidate with most votes.

I think Yoshi forces a lynch, even with only a plurality.