Friends & Enemies & Enemies & That Other Guy - Wolves Won

[Loose Canon]

Lets state the facts we can agree on:

6 Players Remaining made up of
1 Werewolf
1 Mafia
2 Town Masons
2 Town Vanilla

2 Masons each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting for scum.
2 Vanilla town each have a 50% chance if sticking a pin of voting scum (masons would declare if in danger of being lynched)
2 Scum each have a 1 in 3 chance if sticking a pin of voting rival scum (masons declare if in danger)


EW + X killed Devante and Traf
Traf + Y killed Strike + EW

IF we keep these facts in mind at all times we may be able to Deduce who X and Y are most likely to be, D3.

Does anyone want to disagree with the above framework?

I have to re read the set up but i don't believe this to be right from Charles sign up page. Not unless he deviated.

I think it might be this
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Friends_and_Enemies

With 11 players, 2 scum with an SK/Werewolf is likely.
Might just be one left.

But did you really think this DDS?
You are implying at face value you are vanilla town - because in any faction including masons but especially scum there would surely have been discussions around 2 of each scum faction.
I refuse to think there wouldn't have been unless you were teamed up with a complete numpty.
So could you be trying to imply you are vanilla, could you be a scum remainder.
Did you really think this DDS?

[DirtyDishSoap]

I guess you missed my follow up. Either you're catching up or just choosing a goofy mistake i made on the setup.

[SoN!c]

Its in the opening thread from Charle. You know, The game we have been playing for weeks now?

[DirtyDishSoap]

I get that, i hardly read set ups though. Open or not. I really thought the set up fell into an sk/werewolf with 2 scum. Not like the Mod posted a link for it, but here we are now. Hardly a fallacy to go into.

And once again, corrected myself.

[SoN!c]

I get that, i hardly read set ups though. Open or not. I really thought the set up fell into an sk/werewolf with 2 scum. Not like the Mod posted a link for it, but here we are now. Hardly a fallacy to go into.

And once again, corrected myself.

The link posted by the mod is there but never mind.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I'M A DRINKER AND I DON'T NEED TO EXPLAIN MY BOOZING

[DirtyDishSoap]

[Loose Canon]

it's clear that someone is trying to make me look scum,...but there are two scums in the game and I'm not one of them...who will the two be?

The day D1 I was voting trying to get information, I did read wrongly about Strike and DDS,
so the day D2 I was just following DDS leadership I was feeling Traf was scum but people did vote Rag and then I voted Traf to see if anyone changed their vote after Rag's explanations... but nobody did it, and even the opossite: Rag and LC unvoted Traf, then I thought it was for nothing to wait more to hammer.

day D3 I felt it was a 'good day' but there are people against me, anyway I think that WE (town) are going to win, because it is just easy to find the scums.

I try to read the future:

if we lynch a scum today (LC says 50%), tonight the other scum will kill 1 townie...
... so for tomorrow 3 townies and 1 scum.

if we lynch a townie today (LC says 50%), tonight the scums can kill 2 people...
for each of them there is 25% to kill the other scum faction and 75% to kill a townie ...
so for tomorrow:
56% they will kill 2 townies, (1 town and 2 scums)
37% they will kill one scum and one town (2 town and 1 scum)
and 7% they kill each other, (3 townies).

I think these are approx the posibilities...

All of this to say just think twice before lynch today...
we have a lot of probabilities to win, but we have to be careful.

The Traf - posting/voting Pepe as scum
and
The Pepe - posting/voting Traf as scum
interactions and timing is what is making you Pepe look like ONE good option to vote to lynch D3.
I don't think they happened at a time when Traf was going to be lynched.
You may be Town and innocently caught up in something , but Trafs role in this in particular makes me think he might have been trying to keep his faction at 2 with a fruitless fake fight with you. And you have played into that suspicious possibility too.
So I'm not "framing" you surrepticiously , I'm being quite open about why you are ONE good possibility of a name that fits the frame.

[pmchugh]

Oh God that DDS townslip. Generally townslips are genuine. But then one day someone will win doing it.

[SoN!c]

it's clear that someone is trying to make me look scum,...but there are two scums in the game and I'm not one of them...who will the two be?

The day D1 I was voting trying to get information, I did read wrongly about Strike and DDS,
so the day D2 I was just following DDS leadership I was feeling Traf was scum but people did vote Rag and then I voted Traf to see if anyone changed their vote after Rag's explanations... but nobody did it, and even the opossite: Rag and LC unvoted Traf, then I thought it was for nothing to wait more to hammer.

day D3 I felt it was a 'good day' but there are people against me, anyway I think that WE (town) are going to win, because it is just easy to find the scums.

I try to read the future:

if we lynch a scum today (LC says 50%), tonight the other scum will kill 1 townie...
... so for tomorrow 3 townies and 1 scum.

if we lynch a townie today (LC says 50%), tonight the scums can kill 2 people...
for each of them there is 25% to kill the other scum faction and 75% to kill a townie ...
so for tomorrow:
56% they will kill 2 townies, (1 town and 2 scums)
37% they will kill one scum and one town (2 town and 1 scum)
and 7% they kill each other, (3 townies).

I think these are approx the posibilities...

All of this to say just think twice before lynch today...
we have a lot of probabilities to win, but we have to be careful.

I swear if not impossible on D3 i would think your scumpartner LC wrote this, lmao.

[Loose Canon]

This is difficult because I think Charle made 1 and probably 2 vote count cock ups D2 but I reckon the order of voting D2 was;

DDS Votes Kong/PMC
Pepe votes Kong/PMC
Loose votes Rag
Sonic votes Kong/PMC
Charle issues vote count -early pressure on Kong
Sonnic unvotes Kong/PMC
Sonic revotes Kong/PMC
EW Votes Traf
Sonic unvotes Kong and Votes Traf
Sonic unvotes Traf
DDS unvotes Kong/PMC
Loose unvotes Rag and Votes Traf
Kong/PMC votes Rag
DDS votes Rag
Charle isasues vote count but was incorrect now corrected
It appears pressure is on Rag but actually its on Traf more
EW unvotes Traf
I point out my vote is on Traf
Sonic votes Rag
Charle corrects his miscount
Max votes Rag
Pepe unvotes Kong/PMC
Charle issues vote count pressure definitely on Rag now
Pepe votes Traf
Charle issues vote count pressure still definitely on Rag
Rag unvotes Traf
I don't think Rag ever voted Traf Charle probably made another cock up
Loose unvotes Traf
Traf votes Pepe
Pepe votes and hammers Rag


Main Conclusion Charle is Scum

(I also think by the time Pepe voted Traf the pressure was well and truly on Rag.)

[SoN!c]

Okay, sitting in a bar on Crete. Just arrived. Sipping white wine. Processing all the stuff. Great game. Ffs, who can imagine this lol. Better then watching TV or netflix..

So;First question that needs good answering from Pepe:

Why did you hammer Rag?..LC or "mason" EW were to hammer Rag when the moment would be fit for it, not before.

And why voting Traf while you clearly saw it was a noose on Rag with sure hammer in the end if Rag defended himself poorly. What would that vote on Traf bring to town? You even said "willing to change to Rag if needed but i think others will hammer Rag or something like that. So why do you vote Traf at that moment, why don't you wait on how Rag's case will unfold first?

FP by Loose

[SoN!c]

This is difficult because I think Charle made 1 and probably 2 vote count cock ups D2 but I reckon the order of voting D2 was;

DDS Votes Kong/PMC
Pepe votes Kong/PMC
Loose votes Rag
Sonic votes Kong/PMC
Charle issues vote count -early pressure on Kong
Sonnic unvotes Kong/PMC
Sonic revotes Kong/PMC
EW Votes Traf
Sonic unvotes Kong and Votes Traf
Sonic unvotes Traf
DDS unvotes Kong/PMC
Loose unvotes Rag and Votes Traf
Kong/PMC votes Rag
DDS votes Rag
Charle isasues vote count but was incorrect now corrected
It appears pressure is on Rag but actually its on Traf more
EW unvotes Traf
I point out my vote is on Traf
Sonic votes Rag
Charle corrects his miscount
Max votes Rag
Pepe unvotes Kong/PMC
Charle issues vote count pressure definitely on Rag now
Pepe votes Traf
Charle issues vote count pressure still definitely on Rag
Rag unvotes Traf
I don't think Rag ever voted Traf Charle probably made another cock up
Loose unvotes Traf
Traf votes Pepe
Pepe votes and hammers Rag


Main Conclusion Charle is Scum

(I also think by the time Pepe voted Traf the pressure was well and truly on Rag.)

So your saying Rag unvotes Traf but he never voted Traf?

Rag did not even knew he never voted Traf when he unvoted? Can't be

Let me order another bottle of wine here

[SoN!c]

Rag, dead man chat is allowed here, so please say / keep saying your ideas from the tomb and comment this too please !

Force ghost Opi-One-Ragiani

[Loose Canon]

Cycling home from work I first of all thought the evidence I was seeing that Pepe might be scum, might actually be he is not.
Then I thought we'll actually it might be.

I guess my big unanswered question is why did Traf vote Pepe when he knew it wouldn't make any difference to D2 lynch.

Disguising (so badly I could see through it) a scum bud partnership or setting Pepe up as D3 patsy?
I think I still favour the former - but only just now.

[Loose Canon]

vote Traf
I dont believe that you post 25m after the flip and have 0 thoughts. It reeks of wanting to follow the wrong direction of a townie.

Yes that is a good spot on Traf - it hadn't registered with me.
I guess to be fair that is an advantage of being circumspect - even though my preference is for more posts from all.

Just reposting this because I think EWs spot on Traf explains why Traf would N2 kill EW and EW would N2 kill Traf. particularly after town mislynch D2.

[SoN!c]

Pepe is a wild card flying high in the sky. Max is another wild card. Its like a Mexican stand off with 4 : me, pmc, you and DDS. And nobody is noticing the other 2.

Nobody includes max and pepe and thats ok. But there are 2 scum in here.

Im thinking DDS, LC and Pepe as scum right now. But like i said paranoia dust needs to settle first.

And not receiving london calling antenna at all.

FP by loose again

[SoN!c]

And if i was not making my point loud and clear: it could be Max too..

[SoN!c]

2 british airman like LC AND PMC have to take the lead D3? Dropping paratroopers over scum Normand? If so this is won either way? Masons have a spare waiting to fly in.. its 99,99% win scenario and tbh its locked 100% town V? Yes on a greece bar but its dead locked victory day? Or are you go gonna get a EW disciple soft claiming Mason again and get away with it?

[Loose Canon]

Spare mason could be dead already couldn't he?
Didn't think Charle would declare if a dead town was spare mason??

[Loose Canon]

Sonic, you are probing and that is fine.

I would argue that if anyone thinks I'm scum, they would have to think I'm scum with EW.
Unlikely to be scum with Traf because I put Traf onto 3 votes when EW posted and I had noone with me on my initial Rag vote.
To put me with Traf you'd have to see a way I saw that I could get myself off of my Traf vote. Yes I might have been able to but I might also have been trapped.
For the same reason I think Max is a bad vote D3 I'd suggest I'd be a reasonably bad vote. (only 1 not 2 likely scum buds, a bit more marginal for me than my max isn't buds with EW admittedly)

How do you like that beer, sonic?

[SoN!c]

@Charle, is the spare mason pushing up daisies?

[SoN!c]

Sonic, you are probing and that is fine.

I would argue that if anyone thinks I'm scum, they would have to think I'm scum with EW.
Unlikely to be scum with Traf because I put Traf onto 3 votes when EW posted and I had noone with me on my initial Rag vote.
To put me with Traf you'd have to see a way I saw that I could get myself off of my Traf vote. Yes I might have been able to but I might also have been trapped.
For the same reason I think Max is a bad vote D3 I'd suggest I'd be a reasonably bad vote. (only 1 not 2 likely scum buds, a bit more marginal for me than my max isn't buds with EW admittedly)

How do you like that beer, sonic?

That is what im mulling about yes. If you are scum then as EW's partner.

EW defended you so strong D1.. The easy way reading that is your both are helping each other. But if you think that strategy thru, what would be your guys your end game? I can't see any.

I always start with framing Rag (EW killing Dev). That Dev kill holds the answer i feel. Then you coming in strong on Ragian D2 to tighten the frame..and i say yes: i see a D1 plan and D2 excecution.

But then what?

Where is the chess in 3? Why would you guys bond so strongly D1?

And its wine

[Loose Canon]

EW supported me D1 in going for a Max lynch sure.
Don't remember being under any pressure or need of defence D1 though.
I liked EWs spot on Traf D2.

Hope this doesn't make your wine taste corked Sonic.

[SoN!c]

EW supported me D1 in going for a Max lynch sure.
Don't remember being under any pressure or need of defence D1 though.
I liked EWs spot on Traf D2.

Hope this doesn't make your wine taste corked Sonic.

Ew said something like Loose is lock town. Now EW flips scum..thats all.