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Skoffin wrote:Technically he is correct
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
Ragian wrote:Hi BuJ
Vote BuJ
Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.
strike wolf wrote:Well judging by the intro this will surely be an elaborate lengthy and provocative game.
Vote DGZ because his name starts with D and Aage robbed me of my chance to vote Dakky.
Ragian wrote:Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.
BuJaber wrote:I know the math and I agree to it but I don't know why day 1?
Later on in the game you can learn from NK choices therefore can force scum to make suboptimal lynches.
BuJaber wrote:This is in a vanilla game I mean.. there aren't any PRs to try to save for a night action
Pikanchion wrote:Town never benefits in any way by lynching on an even number of players compared to the next odd number down. Think of it this way, if one were to treat the No Lynch day and night that follows as having never happened then compared to a game where the Town lynched every night:
1. The game lasts the same number of days and nights
2. The game features the same number of lynches
3. The game will have the same number of night kills
However!
4. Town will have a higher probability of lynching correctly every single night.
Pikanchion wrote:Ragian wrote:Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.BuJaber wrote:I know the math and I agree to it but I don't know why day 1?
Later on in the game you can learn from NK choices therefore can force scum to make suboptimal lynches.BuJaber wrote:This is in a vanilla game I mean.. there aren't any PRs to try to save for a night action
There's a reason I explained this all before the game started, the benefit from doing this is applied every single lynch after we no lynch so the earlier the better.Pikanchion wrote:Town never benefits in any way by lynching on an even number of players compared to the next odd number down. Think of it this way, if one were to treat the No Lynch day and night that follows as having never happened then compared to a game where the Town lynched every night:
1. The game lasts the same number of days and nights
2. The game features the same number of lynches
3. The game will have the same number of night kills
However!
4. Town will have a higher probability of lynching correctly every single night.
Whether we lynch or not today, Town gets three lynches before game over if Mafia don't get lynched, we have a choice between those lynches being at 20%, 25%, and 33.3%, or being at 22.2%, 28.6%, and 40%. Verifying this is exceptionally simple. Why would you ever pick the former unless you're scum?
I cannot be bothered arguing this any further (which is the main reason I brought this up before the game started — this is objectively the correct way to do things in this setup, and I'd rather risk having made the correct argument for Town to win and end up quietly dropping it in the case I roll Mafia, than end up making the correct argument only later as Town with people questioning my motives). So basically from this point on I will voting exclusively No Lynch or for anybody who argues for lynching until the total number of players is odd during a day phase.
Unvote: Skoffin
Vote: No Lynch
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Also aage: Town has only a 29.84% chance of wining, not 35.21% (the T column is Town players, not Total players).
Ragian wrote:Do you also want no talking D1?
Pikanchion wrote:Also aage: Town has only a 29.84% chance of wining, not 35.21% (the T column is Town players, not Total players).
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