Hey Streaker, you should probably prod this Strike Wolf character, I don't trust him and a little birdy told me that he was planning to scummarine the rest of the game. Seriously though, I really do apologize for the absence. I posted a quick claim thinking I would have time to come back on that night and give a fuller explanation of my results and anything I might want to say but I didn't and my available time for Conquer Club kept getting pushed farther and farther back. Anyways, I'll try to answer everything but I've read very little of day 3 so far so I may not be able to catch completely up before I have to go to sleep:
StorrZerg wrote:strike wolf wrote:Vote Virus scum read leads to scum investigation result.
Claim checks
Night 1: Mtam-Between it possibly shedding some light on the nature of his Hotshot case, the fact that I don't know his scum reads, that if town it could possibly save us going down a bad path by lynching or if mafia save us a lot of time arguing whether this was normal Mtam bs or something else, he seemed like a good choice.
Night 2: Virus-Obvious reasons.
StorrZerg wrote:Strike likely mafia With the claim. Well see.
No more votes, I'd unvote if you are town. 1 wrong vote, 2 mafia hammer gg.
You know, explaining your reasoning behind things actually matters in this game. Not doing it didn't exactly work well for Mtam and it doesn't really work well here either or when you unvoted Virus because you "felt he was town". Of course, you may not care about that.
virus90 wrote:i already thought about that when i voted. BUT i dont really see how scum would quickhammer one of their own, so i voted strike.
well. to make you sleep better storr
unvote
Maybe this sounds different to others who don't have the investigation result but to me it just sounds like Virus trying to placate Storr and/or listen to a warning from his scum buddy to stop and think and yes I do think there is a good chance that Storr is Virus' scum buddy after he unvoted him late yesterday and now this early if indirect defense.
virus90 wrote:strike did you just claim cop and said you investigated me last night and i turned out scum? LIAR!
if you fake claim that, at least make it believable..
for me its clear strike is lying, since there is no strange role that can give you wrong results its a straight out lie, maybe its nice if we have a cop at all if he could counterclaim. but thats not nescesary if we can lynch strike without that
Well of course you are going to push me as a liar. I find it more interesting that you posted, unvoted me and then later realized that I "had" to be lying.
Virus wrote:Besides i suspect there is no cop at all, so far we have had 4 townies turn up dead. all VT. which would mean that if there are both a doc and a cop they are doing a great job at dodging the bullets but also so far have had pretty poor effectivity. also since i know i am VT and i think i am not the only VT left, (which would make more then 5 VT) that scenario seems impossible. in fact i think we are with 7 VT. so mafia has a roleblocker, and guesses there is not a cop and a doc but 7 VT so its safe for them to claim cop, and i think they just did.
that's a lot of assumption jumping based on a lot of flawed logic. As a cop though, I do have to blend in to some extent or do something to make mafia not want to kill me. If I make it obvious I am the cop (or even gave too strong of a hint that I was) before I have a reason to come forward I would have been BCS role blocked. So yeah. I essentially tried to act like a VT.
Virus wrote:why dont i think its the scenario with 6 town 1 cop? because i know im VT and your lying, and i guess you thought you would get away with it cause you thought/knew the scenario would be the 4th.
And circular logic to complete the loop of assumption jumping. "I know you are not cop and I am going to show these assumptions to prove it and these assumptions I present to help show that you are not a cop is because I know you are not a cop".
Virus wrote:But thats just my line of reasoning here are some questions and some game stats.
like who did you investigate n1 and n2? (and what where the results, apparently you found town n1?)
Answered above.
Virus wrote:on another note, if you where really the cop you should have claimed end day 2 since you where close to being lynched. could have been you, why not claim?
Lets look at Day 2. My second to last post. You were about to be lynched and there was no case on me. My last post, I was in a position to decide the lynch. I thought we were all tied at 2 and so I decided to vote Legion in part because I believed he was scum and in part because I felt chances were that his death (if town) would hurt town less than if I was to die. Between these two posts, that's when the case was made against me and it basically boiled down to a bs "POE" case by Mtam and you trying to save your ass yesterday which suddenly today became a "real case". I claim yesterday when i know I am not going to be lynched. Why? So mafia can kill me over night and get rid of possibly town's only power role? Again BCS, there's also a doc in the game and mafia decides to role block me so that I get no result and eliminate someone that the doc is less likely to protect over night.
Really even posting this suggestion makes me think that you did not really pay much attention to what actually happened.
Virus wrote:and lets compare my and your game trackrecord:
day 1: you voted and lynched charm (VT)
day 2: you voted and lynched legionaire (VT)
me: day 1 i said i dont want to lynch charm, i was on legionaire. so well he turned out town 2.
but day 2, i didnt vote or said anything negative about him and i wasnt among the people who lynched him cause i changed my view on him. i voted you.
Let's look at your voting record shall we?
You voted Legionaire day 1 but day 2 when you actually had a chance to lynch this guy you had thought was scum day 1 you choose to vote IB for things I still don't quite comprehend and the OMGus, "I'll save myself" vote against me instead. So no, you never really pushed me as scum but when it came down to voting to protect yourself you put me ahead of the guy you had thought was the best scum choice on day 1? In fact, you forget about Legion as soon as Day 2 starts, why? I can't be the only one who sees the huge scum tell in this, can I?
So you may not have lynched them but you have voted for Legion who is proven town for all to see. You are willing to hammer Charm who turns out to be town. Then you voted IB who I believe to be town and you now want to vote me and I know I am town. So from my perspective your voting record isn't that much better just because you didn't end up being the deciding vote.
Virus wrote:in fact:
we have 5 alive
the 4 of you still alive lynched legion together, i was the only one who didnt vote him.
and i believe it was hotshot, storr and strike who where among the ones lycnhing charm.
so im the only one who isnt responsible for any town lynching.
if im mafia i think we should conclude that mafia is just playing brilliantly and town sucks, but it seems like a big gamble dont you think?
This logic actually doesn't prove anything. It just looks good to say. "Hey town. Look what I didn't do. This obviously means I am not scum, right?" You are laying relatively low in this game. Have been since day 1. This information only supports that. Not discredits it.
Virus wrote:besides that if i was mafia it would also mean that 3 confirmed townies where wrong about me cause:
day 1: charm said i was probably town, but well she said that about you 2... guess thats no good point then,
day 2: both mtam and legionaire said i was probably town.
i can quote them if you want but think there is enough text in this post.
You know in this post, I see a lot of you defending yourself with what other people thought and a lot of you defending yourself with the results of your actions. So far I have seen very little of you explaining the actual logic behind your actions.
so why would i kill mtam n2 ? he probably was the one most convinced of me being town. i think i wouldnt do that right? lets see who did mtam vote maybe he was a thread to someone? ehmmm maybe it was... YOU ?! [/quote]
I'll give you some credit here. It is a bit unprovable but this statement is the first thing you say that has any degree of logic based on defending why you would make an action and not the results of your actions. Truthfully, I am not sure why mafia selected Mtam and Mets for their kills but it is generally bad strategy to kill someone who is suspicious of you unless you have to as mafia and as I said, Mtam's stated case on me pretty much boiled down to "Process of Elimination" where he hadn't even explained why he had eliminated some of the others. So why was Mtam lynched? I don't know perhaps mafia knew there was either a cop and a doc in this game and they figured that he would be less likely protected than some of the others. Maybe they wanted to frame me? Maybe a little of both?
Virus wrote:So: i can wait with revoting for some discussion, since discussion is good, but lets please lynch strike.
HotShot53 wrote:StorrZerg wrote:No more votes, I'd unvote if you are town. 1 wrong vote, 2 mafia hammer gg.
Yeah, throwing out votes before you're 100% sure could lose this game... we are obviously at LYLO.
With Strike's semi-claim it seems sure that either Strike or Virus is scum, but the other is town... we just have to figure out which one. Strike, can you give a full claim? Who did you investigate night 1?
Strike didn't seem scummy before yesterday, but that claim does sound a bit funny... and mtam's death after suspecting strike could be because of that (or it could be scum setting up strike, I've seen it happen both ways before)
Virus has always been borderline scummy, he was my second pick yesterday after legion (which it turns out I was wrong on
)
Overall, I'm at a coinflip between them right now... not nearly confident enough on either of them to vote them yet.
Tinfoil hat theory... they could both be scum and busing each other, figuring that whomever doesn't get lynched today won't get lynched tomorrow and will win that way...
FP by virus... obviously he would say strike is lying, whether he is scum or VT as claimed lol. Oh, and I didn't vote for charm day 1, I was on legion day 1 also
Can't tell if legitimate...or waiting and playing on the side lines to see how it goes.
So I went back and put this down here because I think it goes too well with his latter statement:
StorrZerg wrote:I think mtamburini death confirms me as town.
StorrZerg wrote:cause i never kill mtamb at night as mafia. I always win end game vs him as mafia, or let town miss lynch him while saying they are dumb. I almost never kill him period, only time i have was via a lynch when he was mafia. (last streaker game) And i wouldn't use this small bleh game to throw away this meta lol. (and he wouldn't of lynched me today so again, why kill someone thats going to ensure your survival in final 5 with 2 mafia)
So, it doesn't bother you that strike claimed cop, with 1 check 0 explanation?
The fact that you know your own meta regardless of game size makes this point moot. The object of mafia is not to establish a meta so everyone knows when you are town or mafia. As mafia, you are going to try to hide your tells. Knowing them only makes it that much easier to hide, so yes I am going on the record as saying that this argument is just a bunch of horse****.
StorrZerg wrote:Iron Butterfly wrote:yup to much coffee....was walking the dog and realized @ Hotshot that they are not busing each other. One is lying and one is telling the truth.
First claiming cop and being mafia would all but seal a mafia loss. IF Strike is mafia and is busing Virus by claiming cop he would lose any way tomorrow as he would still be alive tomorrow. No way you keep a cop alive with three left. So we have mafia between those two.
Now from my perspective Storr or HS are mafia. If Storr is Town he can say the same for HS and I and of course if HS is Town he can say the same for Storr and I.
We now have mafia in two separate groups as they can not be both mafia.
I think i figured out the mafia in the other group, so that's nice.
I'm interested in whom of the 2 you think is mafia (between me and hotshot) and why.
Also, hotshots opinion on who is the mafia between the storr/Ib and why.
Honestly i think these questions have more weight than the strike/virus. Virus comes out of the gate on strike, which looks better than strike countering the vote with a cop claim.
I mean, i can't believe he wouldn't claim all the information. If he claims his check was on mets/tamb imma laugh.
I don't find his vote less scummy. He voted when he knows we are in lylo territory except that unlike my investigation result, he didn't have a definitive reason to know that I was scum. As IB said, it would have only taken one stupid townie and then the second mafia could hammer. I do apologize again for the half claim, like I said though I thought I had time to post later that night so I wasn't concerned about posting the full statement immediately.
virus90 wrote:sorry to hotshot, bout my mistake with the stats, thought 3 out of 5 of us alive where on charm mixed it up i guess.
well to question the course of action i think its obvious to choose between me and strike. a 50-50 chance is better then 33. in case you decide to do the right thing today tomorrow is left to decide who among the other 3 are scum. although i might have some ideas about that aswell.
Some questions for town to think about:
if i am mafia, did town play that bad that both lynches i was not among the majority that lynched?
And why am i so called scummy? is it because i wasnt able to get online for a few days? cause i believe that is what started people to believe im scum, since day 1 i was almost by all town read. or did i do something majorly stupid? day 2 i voted IB and Strike, 2 people who still are not proven town. i knew my vote against IB would be controversial, (hence also the bombshell comment of me) but both are not proven town, and i know i was at least right about strike. anyway what makes me scummy? my absence or my posts? (which/what part)
also a question: last game i was scum, did i play the same?
the first part I still find a weak argument. The second is not why I voted you. I voted you because I felt you were lying low all game and still are. The fact that you managed to avoid the main lynch wagons while saying you were willing to vote charm if it came down to it, if anything, support that fact. Also yes, you did vote me. For no other reason than for self-preservation which only became more than that after night time...what changed? Perhaps you had a talk with your scum buddy about how to approach why you voted me? Did he advise you to tell everyone that you thought I was scummy so you could retroactively change the past and make it look like you thought I was scummy all along? Can't answer the last part, wasn't in the game and don't have time to read another game when I've been struggling to keep up with this one as it is.
Iron Butterfly wrote:Strike start posting!
I'm getting to it! I'm getting to it!
Iron Butterfly wrote:crasp wrote:StorrZerg wrote:meh, id rather see a push on people that have 2 posts or less
Who is seriously going to post anything substantial. Legion is right in my opinion. This is a crap shoot and anybody stupid enough to stick there head up is liable to get it taken off.
I really have to say that that re reading the game knowing what we know now sure makes for easier reads. A lot more fun and interesting as well. Crasp certainly does not sound like a major game saving cop here. He also seems a bit defensive of of Hotshot.
I will be in and out all day and may or may not post till this evening.
But yeh this is a very very interesting lead. Coincidence that early day one reflects a suspected mafia pairing at endgame??
Can't really defend myself much on what my predecessor did.
Iron Butterfly wrote:strike wolf wrote:Crap. I forgot that the deadline was at 130. Ultimately, I still believe charm is the best lynch right now. Shes spent more time today pushing herself as VT and her ice cream and not enough content. Identifing people pozting fluff as a mafia tactic has worked well for me in the past.
vote charm
I believe that is hammer. Either way she flips I am also fairly interested in Virus. Storrs lessened activity is interesting for him but I also find myself having come up with a lot of the same reads as him so I am willing to go with a slight town read.
Right after hammering Charm day one Strike makes this statement. I would think as Cop he would have investigated Virus night one???????? We end up lynching Town day two.
Also in re reading Strikes initial post after replacing Crasp He produces a wall of text that really says nothing but does a great deal of defending of Mtams read of Hotshot.
But yeh if Strike were cop he would have investigated Virus the first night.
And I almost did but I second guessed myself because at the time, I hadn't completed my reread of him, had found out I was slightly wrong about something I thought he had done and decided that mtam was a better choice because from what I read to that point, Virus only provided information on himself while Mtam might give insight into both himself and Hotshot if not others. And yes I did spend sometime on the Mtam vs. Hotshot thing, really I still think it's the most interesting thing that happened Day 1. I was suspicious but uncertain on Legion (Some aspects of your argument seemed town-town and I didn't find one OMGus vote to be a death sentence. It wasn't until Day 2 and the second OMGus where I really started to really become more convinced that he was scum), the Charm case I thought was reasonably strong for day 1 but pretty straight forward (non-committal, fluff posts etc.) and everything else mostly just blended in to me.
virus90 wrote:are you sure you want me to answer that, i think it might be beneficial to us if we dont tell who we trust or not trust so that the last mafia has more of a blind shot.
lets say i believe player A is probably town, then maybe player A gets killed tonight because i said so. get what i mean?
No this really is weak. If you were town you could be shot tonight and then we wouldn't know your reads and there would be less information to go on tomorrow. Really I think you are just hesitating because you aren't sure how to address your scum buddy here.
Alright I am running out of time so final thoughts (Well hopefully not final, I should be able to get on tomorrow and I would like to post before being lynched though I hope that will not happen). Virus is scum, you can believe me or not but since this is LYLO I really hope you believe me and lynch the scum that is Virus.
As for who else, I've stated since day 1 that I believe IB to be town. That hasn't changed. What has changed actually since I wrote most of this post is my opinion of Hotshot vs Storrr. I wrote much of this post thinking that Storr was the scum pair with Virus...he was the one defending him early on and I find that he is a confident enough person that he could be willing to more openly defend a scum buddy but the more I looked at Hotshot and the more I compared it to what I am trying to get you to realize about Virus, the more I realized that Hotshot's behavior isn't that much different. Especially today he seems to be playing the snake in the grass and waiting to see which side town takes. Will the cop win out? or will his scum buddy convince enough town to turn the tables? In another game where a cop is more likely this isn't a very legitimate strategy, the scum buddy would be all but forced to bus his partner or if not, risk counter claiming cop to try to turn the tide. So I hadn't considered it but in a game where the cop is uncertain, it makes more sense.
Furthermore, if we acknowledge that Hotshot and Storr are likely to try to coach a scum buddy in how to act and Virus if not readily listening to the advice, considers it and reflects it more subconsciously or consciously than Hotshot seems more likely. Storr is a more confident player. I don't think he would advise Virus to act as he has. Hotshot, I find more likely to do so. So yes, I believe that Virus/Hotshot are the scum pair. I know I could easily be wrong on this. Technically speaking, i can't even completely rule out IB but this is how I am currently seeing the game.