Balance Not Included Come Back Mafia End Game: Mod Down!!!

[nagerous]

I did in fact target Legion/Skittles last night. But my impression from my role description is that no one could in fact target me, which should mean that Nag can't have diverted me elsewhere; so DDS should have seen me visit Skittles.
I'll give a chance for everyone else to give their thoughts first before I proceed.

Sorry skittles, but I did laugh when I saw you died after reading the entire game. Bad luck chap.

Are you able to clarify the point with the mod? As otherwise it sounds like you and DDS are contradicting each other

What she is saying is that scenario one, she visited skittles, I lied and I'm scum. Scenario 2, she lied, didn't visit skittles, and that she is scum.

If you targeted her and if her role states that she can't be targeted, then I'm obviously bring implicated.

I can only assure people at this point that I'm indeed a town watch.

Yeah I got that I was suggesting more in favour of the scenario three that you later mention. I was asking if skoffin would be able to clarify that is how her role operates. I was thinking that perhaps before skoffin's night action was dragged towards me before she even reached skittles to hide behind him, ergo she targetted me and you did not see her visit skittles. Of course you have to trust my testimony in this particular case. I cannot see a scenario where skoffin would implicate herself after I basically gave her an 'out' following on from your call out.

I am very happy to target dakky tonight if we do not choose to lynch him in this day phase - I have to agree you DDS that the whole roleblock thing and the feigned confusion about how the alarm clock works seems very suspicious especially considering mets was scum and they could have easily colluded.

[Fircoal]

I would like to hear Skoffin ask the mod to see if we can get any idea of the ordering here. Because that ordering heavily changes how I feel about the game. Considering how its shaking out I feel like DDS's plan might be the wisest idea. Right now we have a good idea of what night actions we have, and I think we can be relatively certain with how the game has played out that there is only one killing bad role left. Which means it'd be worthwhile to try to make a plan to try to figure out things and then execute it. The only issue is if Skoffin dies that keeps the town count at even which is unideal.

That said if we want to do this we ned to make the perfect plan. I am interested in DDS's plan but I wonder if it can be made better. That case is good for catching Dakky or DJ, but I think it's less good for investigating anyone else in the game. While they are the more suspcious members at this point I would ideally like something that is able to catch as many possible scums as possible. Something to think about to try to build.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I targeted mets night three but the mod got my night action wrong and thought I said fircoal.

Night one I didn't send a night action

Is this something the mod can actually confirm or do we have to assume it was wrong and takes Nag word for it?

I'm also wondering if someone can answer this.

[dakky21]

I think we should have (make) a plan for tonight and something may come out of it. The DDS's one doesn't seems to be bad.

[Skoffin]

I have received clarification. Without quoting, I'll say that it appears that both myself and DDS can be telling the truth. My role does not move before all roles like I had thought.
With that, I'll say I trust DDS and Nag.

As for what to do now, we have to make a choice. We have 6 players, we either no lynch and coordinate the night or we lynch a suspect and coordinate the night.

Worst case scenario:
We lynch a townie. 5 players left, assuming 1 mafia
Night phase: Town killed and I die from hiding behind mafia
Day will have 3 players, 1 mafia

We no lynch
Night phase: Town killed and I die from hiding behind mafia
Day will have 4 players, 1 mafia

Best scenario would be to lynch one of our uncleared today and plan around the others, and tomorrow we should have the info needed to finish. Of course that hinges on only one mafia left, otherwise we'd lose outright if I die
The only way this all fails if loljokes there was a redirector here the whole time.

Chu can't die anyway, so I'd say DDS might be better watching Nag. I hide behind DDS, which will clear him if he's town like we assume and give us an extra person tomorrow. We lynch either dakky/DJ today, which should mean only one of them is left to lynch tomorrow.

[dakky21]

Chu can't die anyway, so I'd say DDS might be better watching Nag. I hide behind DDS, which will clear him if he's town like we assume and give us an extra person tomorrow. We lynch either dakky/DJ today, which should mean only one of them is left to lynch tomorrow.

I'm powerless since Mets died so I guess it's better to lynch me tonight and have DJ tomorrow.

[DirtyDishSoap]

If we lynch dakky, then have Nag visit DJ, I'll watch Nag while you visit me and clear me.

[Djfireside]

Im game with that plan but I am trying to reread to see what skittles saw that we are missing.

[nagerous]

So...is everyone happy to lynch dakky or would a NL be preferable? I would prefer not to NL personally

vote dakky

Any other thoughts/ideas at this moment in time?

[nagerous]

if dakky isn't scum and we are still scum hunting:

I target dj I get his doctor protection or die. If I die you know dj is scum

The problem with your plan tho is skoff hiding behind you, if you are then target we lose you and skoff in one clean swoop.

It would leave me dj and fircoal and I would know fircoal is scum but dj may not believe me (he hasn't trusted me much this game). If in this scenario fircoal persuades dj I am scum then we lose. May be overthinking the scenarios as I actually think dakky is the last scum but I would rather not see Myself left in a lylo scenario with dj and fircoal if DDS and skoffin are taken out in one swoop

[DirtyDishSoap]

We've cleared Fircoal according to Skoffins role that if she were to hide behind scum, she would die. You two are essentially trying to get killed so we can eliminate suspects and actually figure out who is scum. My money has been on between DJ and Dakky, if it weren't for Skoffin hiding behind Fircoal earlier, I'd throw Fir under the suspect list as well.

[Djfireside]

So now we get down to the last portion, in a 12 game would you expect 3 or 4 scum. I have been having this debate with myself this entire day and trying to figure 1/2

I think DDS is Town, Chu would have been proven town in the single and in this I am stating I am town.

Order of Single Scum Posibility.

3. Dakky
12. Nag
11. Skoffin

Order of Double Scum (LYLO)
Skoffin/Chu
Dakky/Nag

I believe it more to be a single I think it to be amongst the 3 but wanted to at least put my thoughts out there especially with the cost. Will vote in the morning as I stew over everything and at this point I am leaning Dakky.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Point is, if me and skoffin both die, it'll be pretty damn clear who's scum given the scenario played out, assuming everyone does what they areally suppose to do.

With that being said, vote dakky

[Skoffin]

I think I'd prefer we lynch DJ first, dakky after.

But something is throwing me off a bit in that the way the scummy came in to quickly kill off skittles - it has a bit of a feel of pre-planning that matches more towards chu for me, or possibly DJ.

Nag - I'm open to other suggestions on how we play this out just in case, thought hopefully if that scenario DID happen dj would have the good sense to vote Chu and not be wrong there XD

[DirtyDishSoap]

I think I'd prefer we lynch DJ first, dakky after.

But something is throwing me off a bit in that the way the scummy came in to quickly kill off skittles - it has a bit of a feel of pre-planning that matches more towards chu for me, or possibly DJ.

Nag - I'm open to other suggestions on how we play this out just in case, thought hopefully if that scenario DID happen dj would have the good sense to vote Chu and not be wrong there XD

What are you saying about chu then? It completely destroys the argument of you hiding behind scum and it makes Fir and yourself leading suspects. Either the mod is fucking up your role to no end or you're leaving out details of how your role works. Either way, this is the 2nd time now today that we're learning something entirely different about how your role operates. FOS.

[Skoffin]

Uhhh, I've said on multiple occassions through the game possibilities of redirectors. If there isn't one, chu is clear - if there is, then chu is not. Dakky was never entirely sure about what his abilities did -
he just assumed what they did. While a redirector might not be likely, it is still 'possible' and thus I won't discount it entirely.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Let's take this back even further. Let me try and assume what happened overnight and give out a scenario.

Skoffin claims that he targeted skittles.
Nag targets Skoffin and gets her role.
Let's say Skittles targeted Skoffin and that his role played first before Skoffin, which essentially means Skoffin was role blocked and nag thus survived. Skoffin then immediately targets skittles again. The only problem with that theory is basically banking on the fact that I would switch targets. Do I think Skoffin is scum? No...but why all these "well my role now does this" is getting ridiculous. Something isn't adding up.

Let's assume another scenario that I'm more likely to support. Let's say Skoffin can hide behind anyone, without any repercussions and that the mod is being herpaderp or Skoffin, for whatever reason at this stage of the game, lies about how her role operates. Let's assume then that when she did hide behind Fir, she lived despite unknowingly or not that he was scum. Fast forward to now, and this is very loose mind you, was that when the day started, there was only two people browsing the mafia forums. Myself and Fircoal. Again, this is very loose, but Skittles may have targeted Fir because no one is coming forward as of yet if they were flashed.

Those 2 scenarios honestly suck and they don't bring us any closer, so I'll just ask this...

Skoffin. Do you or do you not die for hiding behind scum?

And I have my doubts there is a redirector. Im 100% of this at the time because no one has missed their intended target.

[nagerous]

That's under the assumption no one has lied about their night action. If chu has been lying and redirecting we are walking into a chu victory here that is my only concern

[DirtyDishSoap]

Fine. I'll concede it. Let's do this instead then. We lynch dakky, and go with a new plan.

Nag, you target Fircoal, if I'm assuming this correctly, you might grab both the kill and the redirect, assuming your role supercedes the other.

Skoffin hides behind DJ, this is assuming she actually dies from hiding behind scum, this would implicate DJ.

I target Skoffin to make sure there isn't a redirect. Depending on who I see visit who, then it'll confirm that I'm being redirected at the very least.

DJ once again targets me assuming he is doc.

Fircoal obviously does nothing if he's just bullet proof.

This is the only way at this moment that I can think of it'll work, but it completely hinges on hm the fact that Skoffin isn't bullshitting on how her role operates.

[strike wolf]

Vote Count

Dakky (2)-Nag, DDS
DDS
Nag
DjFIRESIDE
Fircoal
Skoffin

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline May 4.

[Fircoal]

The question about that scenario DDS is how does that scenario check to see if you or Nag is scum? Personally I feel like the other one is better.

Also I think it should be pretty clear that I'm good at this point. It's not possible for me and Skoffin to both be scum as 4 mafia in a 13 player game is as bad as 3 mafia in a 16 player game. There's certainly no SK, as otherwise we'd be in kill city, not 1 kill a night. So for me to be scum/detrimental 3rd party, you have to rely on these very specific conditions:

Skoffin is lying 3rd party, I am lying scum.

Skoffin is telling the truth and happened to be redirected on that exact night. Now when we note that no one here has that claimed that power it either doesn't exist or is on that one mafia member (or possible less important 3rd party.) And they had to have picked the exact right set up to either move Skoffin or to change the result away from me.

Both of these scenarios seem quite unlikely and come off more as corner cases than anything. We already covered that the hider dies when they hide behind scum. Skoffin asked the mod and that clarification was gotten, so the only way I could be scum is in those two specific scenarios. Which seems unlikely. It's much more likely that anyone else here is a scum than I, and we should plan accordingly.

[Fircoal]

Also about Dakky vs. DJ. I get more of a scum vibe from DJ but I feel like he might be easier to check at night. I'm fine with lynching either of them, although my preference might be DJ at this point.

[dakky21]

I wonder about one thing - is it possible that Skoffin is really a hider, but lying about choices? From like D1 or D2 she was protecting me and trying to divert the talk from me? Could it be possible that she can only hide behind me (like Mets could only give me gifts)? Her talk reminds me of how Benga started CIV mafia. Maybe her Win cons are to survive with me and that's why her role is getting inconsistent?

If that is so, maybe Chu isn't bulletproof at all and I wasn't targeted by scum yet, which would make sense as that would be a useless move, especially from a player like him?

[Djfireside]

I will take Fircoals point that 4v9 would be excessive and 1:4 mafia is normally the accepted. I did my research so for now will assume that is the correct ratio which does change some of my thought pattern.

[DirtyDishSoap]

The question about that scenario DDS is how does that scenario check to see if you or Nag is scum? Personally I feel like the other one is better.

Also I think it should be pretty clear that I'm good at this point. It's not possible for me and Skoffin to both be scum as 4 mafia in a 13 player game is as bad as 3 mafia in a 16 player game. There's certainly no SK, as otherwise we'd be in kill city, not 1 kill a night. So for me to be scum/detrimental 3rd party, you have to rely on these very specific conditions:

Skoffin is lying 3rd party, I am lying scum.

Skoffin is telling the truth and happened to be redirected on that exact night. Now when we note that no one here has that claimed that power it either doesn't exist or is on that one mafia member (or possible less important 3rd party.) And they had to have picked the exact right set up to either move Skoffin or to change the result away from me.

Both of these scenarios seem quite unlikely and come off more as corner cases than anything. We already covered that the hider dies when they hide behind scum. Skoffin asked the mod and that clarification was gotten, so the only way I could be scum is in those two specific scenarios. Which seems unlikely. It's much more likely that anyone else here is a scum than I, and we should plan accordingly.

Sure, we would be putting a lot of trust in both myself and Nag, who I'm saying earlier was scum, but given how Skoffin was grabbed my Nag, and both are confirming their actions I'm going to put my trust in them where as we have DJ's role to be unconfirmed, Dakky possibly getting the kill role after Mets was lynched or yourself because I'm tickling the redirector theory.

I think it's the best laid out plan atm, and depending on how the night goes, I believe it would be clear on who's scum afterwards.