China about to invade Taiwan?

[jusplay4fun]

ralph's analogies and attempted excuses are PITIFUL, stooopid, and irrelevant.

You were replying to a post written by jim.

Are you okay dude? Do you know what year it is?

Ralph can continue to tow the Party Line… but the simple fact is that under Mao’s rule policies were initiated that led to the deaths of MILLIONS.

I already said the same thing back on page 1.

So if that's all it was then great, you agree with me and you can go back to discussing US crimes against humanity with jp4.

Let's get this straight.

1) There is LITTLE I agree with you about, ralph.

2) The crimes in the USA DWARF in comparison to the atrocities of the Communists in China under Mao in the so-call (and incorrectly termed) Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

3) US Crimes against humanity are mostly fiction in the mind of ralph, who continues to insist that Muslims are all peaceful and none of the violence against them is justified. None of this is true.

4) ralph has a very distorted view of history and current affairs, being very pro-Muslim and very pro-CCP (Chinese Communist Party, for anyone who does not know). Nearly all his world views are based on these two biases.

5) In addition, ralph knows very little History, especially with regards to Ireland.

6) ralph is an IDIOT; proven time and again. 'nuff said.

[bigtoughralf]

For a guy with a habit of calling everyone else stupid you sure are struggling to tell the difference between 'ralf' and 'jim' in this thread.

You also seem to have decided that now is the time to start being open and explicit about your Islamophobia:

ralph, who continues to insist that Muslims are all peaceful and none of the violence against them is justified

Congrats on coming out, I guess. Maybe we can talk more about it once you're unbanned

[jimboston]

You are cutting out all the meat of the issue and waiving away the blame.

Your denial of any wrong doing by Party is tiresome.

[bigtoughralf]

ralf: the famine during the Great Leap Forward was directly caused by Mao's policies
jim: you are denying the Chinese government did anything wrong

It must be fricking impossible having a conversation with you about where you want to go for dinner tonight. Your poor wife.

[jusplay4fun]

For a guy with a habit of calling everyone else stupid you sure are struggling to tell the difference between 'ralf' and 'jim' in this thread.

You also seem to have decided that now is the time to start being open and explicit about your Islamophobia:

ralph, who continues to insist that Muslims are all peaceful and none of the violence against them is justified

Congrats on coming out, I guess. Maybe we can talk more about it once you're unbanned

I will call you on your Pro-CCP, Pro-China, Pro-Muslim, anti-West, anti-USA, anti-UK for my alleged and untrue Islamophobia. Time to show your cards ralph.

[jimboston]

ralf: the famine during the Great Leap Forward was directly caused by Mao's policies
jim: you are denying the Chinese government did anything wrong

It must be fricking impossible having a conversation with you about where you want to go for dinner tonight. Your poor wife.

Please report yourself to the Party Leaders for finally admitting Mao was responsible for 40-80million deaths.

[bigtoughralf]

Please report yourself to the Party Leaders for finally admitting Mao was responsible for 40-80million deaths.

I did that on page 1 of this thread, and then in pretty much every post I've written since then.

[Maxleod]

Back on topic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... n-us-leaks

China likely to rapidly achieve air superiority over Taiwan, US leaks say

[bigtoughralf]

Back on topic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... n-us-leaks

China likely to rapidly achieve air superiority over Taiwan, US leaks say

Don't know what else anyone would expect really. 'Small island unable to fend off superpower immediate neighbour'.

From your article it sounds like the EU is already putting as much sunlight between itself and any commitment to support Taiwan as it can. “Anything that happens in Taiwan strait will mean a lot to us,” [the EU's foreign policy chief] said. Translation: when Beijing starts strafing Taiwanese military installations the EU President will tweet out a few hashtags, sanction the deputy CEO of Hunan Mining Inc, and then hope no one asks her directly about what she plans to do next.

Unless the US is prepared to go toe-to-toe with China by itself - which it won't be - then Taiwan's reintegration with mainland China is a done deal.

[jimboston]

Back on topic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... n-us-leaks

China likely to rapidly achieve air superiority over Taiwan, US leaks say

Don't know what else anyone would expect really. 'Small island unable to fend off superpower immediate neighbour'.

From your article it sounds like the EU is already putting as much sunlight between itself and any commitment to support Taiwan as it can. “Anything that happens in Taiwan strait will mean a lot to us,” [the EU's foreign policy chief] said. Translation: when Beijing starts strafing Taiwanese military installations the EU President will tweet out a few hashtags, sanction the deputy CEO of Hunan Mining Inc, and then hope no one asks her directly about what she plans to do next.

Unless the US is prepared to go toe-to-toe with China by itself - which it won't be - then Taiwan's reintegration with mainland China is a done deal.

When?

China is not prepared to take action anytime soon.

I doubt US would fully step up…but I also doubt China will test that.

Even if it never becomes a “hot” war the trade embargo’s would destroy both economies.

I don’t see any change in the next decade. Let’s restart this topic in 2033.

[bigtoughralf]

Even if it never becomes a “hot” war the trade embargo’s would destroy both economies..

Like how the Russian economy was destroyed by sanctions last year?

1) It wouldn't be a world embargo, it'd be a US embargo. 2) The US won't enact any meaningful sanctions because China isn't Russia and the US can't afford to decouple from China.

Plus, Beijing-Taipei would be nothing like the quagmire that Russia-Ukraine has become; it would be hot, but in terms of speed and destruction much closer to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. And in response to the Crimea annexation the States did little more than cancel a dozen low-level Russian officials' US visas. The US's official policy on Taiwan is that they support the status quo and peace across the Strait, but also that they see Taiwan as part of China. They would 100% duck behind that official position to avoid being sucked into supporting a futile cause.

[jimboston]

Even if it never becomes a “hot” war the trade embargo’s would destroy both economies..

Like how the Russian economy was destroyed by sanctions last year?

1) It wouldn't be a world embargo, it'd be a US embargo. 2) The US won't enact any meaningful sanctions because China isn't Russia and the US can't afford to decouple from China.

Plus, Beijing-Taipei would be nothing like the quagmire that Russia-Ukraine has become; it would be hot, but in terms of speed and destruction much closer to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. And in response to the Crimea annexation the States did little more than cancel a dozen low-level Russian officials' US visas. The US's official policy on Taiwan is that they support the status quo and peace across the Strait, but also that they see Taiwan as part of China. They would 100% duck behind that official position to avoid being sucked into supporting a futile cause.

If you’re right why hasn’t China already taken Taiwan?

Oh… because you’re wrong.

Your scenario shows only upside to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and no downside.

Yet earlier in this post you agreed the drills were NOT a prelude to invasion.

You are inconsistent.
You claim this world where China can “get its way” just by acting…. yet they aren’t taking those actions.
So clearly the Chinese Gov’t doesn’t agree.

I know your handlers want you to push this upside-down world view.. and that’s fine… but please at least be consistent in your presentation.

[bigtoughralf]

I never said that I think Beijing is likely to launch military action. Just because someone can do something doesn't mean they do. The US could invade Haiti without much difficulty or real consequence but it doesn't, because there's no real benefit to doing so.

The nationalism Xi has been stoking in recent years may make people on the mainland start to get more actively in favour of reunifying China by force and consequently push Beijing into action, but unless that or something else substantial changes then the status quo works fine for Beijing. Pretty much all of Beijing's recent sabre rattling has been aimed purely at deterring the US from getting more involved in Taiwan (e.g. in response to Pelosi's stop over) rather than reflecting any substantive mobilisation by Beijing.

[jimboston]

I never said that I think Beijing is likely to launch military action. Just because someone can do something doesn't mean they do. The US could invade Haiti without much difficulty or real consequence but it doesn't, because there's no real benefit to doing so.

The nationalism Xi has been stoking in recent years may make people on the mainland start to get more actively in favour of reunifying China by force and consequently push Beijing into action, but unless that or something else substantial changes then the status quo works fine for Beijing. Pretty much all of Beijing's recent sabre rattling has been aimed purely at deterring the US from getting more involved in Taiwan (e.g. in response to Pelosi's stop over) rather than reflecting any substantive mobilisation by Beijing.

Like the people have actually any say. Maybe he’s stoking it to build up popular support for an Invasion (NOT REUNIFICATION)… but that would suggest some pending action in the near-term, say less than 5 years.

If anything the status quo makes China look weak.

Likely they think they can claim Taiwan with no bloodshed… like they they did with Hong Kong… but it’s a very different situation. I do hope they are able to unify under a pro-democratic banner at some point in the future…. but that’s a generation away. No… I think China fears the consequences. Making Chinese solidifies kill ethnic Chinese/Taiwanese people would not be good for moral and could be the straw that breaks their back.

[bigtoughralf]

The Beijing government already champions democracy as one of the core values of socialism with Chinese characteristics. A military reunification of China under the CCP would be a unification under a pro-democratic banner.

Why would mainland Chinese think a conflict reflected badly on Xi? Do people in the US think the US Civil War reflects badly on Lincoln? Most people on the mainland already a) severely dislike anything seen as harming Chinese unity and b) think the US is the main instigator of cross-Strait tension. It wouldn't be hard for Beijing to wait for the US to do something provocative and then trigger a conflict in response.

[jimboston]

Your response is comical.

[bigtoughralf]

That's jimboston code for 'I realise I'm out of my depth but I'm too obstinate to admit I might have been wrong'.

[jusplay4fun]

The Beijing government already champions democracy as one of the core values of socialism with Chinese characteristics. A military reunification of China under the CCP would be a unification under a pro-democratic banner.

Why would mainland Chinese think a conflict reflected badly on Xi? Do people in the US think the US Civil War reflects badly on Lincoln? Most people on the mainland already a) severely dislike anything seen as harming Chinese unity and b) think the US is the main instigator of cross-Strait tension. It wouldn't be hard for Beijing to wait for the US to do something provocative and then trigger a conflict in response.

ralph's comments are full of Holes.

A comparison of Xi to Lincoln is RIDICULOUS. PERIOD.

To argue that

The Beijing government [CCP] The Beijing government already champions democracy as one of the core values of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

is equally ridiculous. ralph must define democracy where the government spy constantly on its citizens and limit the freedom of its citizens. China is a dictatorship where the CCP picks its Leader and NOT the citizens, its people.

The roots of the conflict between the CCP and Taiwan were not started by the USA. PERIOD. Again, ralph fails ANOTHER Lesson from History and has a very poor grasp of it.

ralph again shows little, if any, real analysis and does not grasp the fundamentals of the situation.

[jimboston]

That's jimboston code for 'I realise I'm out of my depth but I'm too obstinate to admit I might have been wrong'.

No… that’s my code for “Your response is comical.”

The Beijing government already champions democracy as one of the core values of socialism with Chinese characteristics. A military reunification of China under the CCP would be a unification under a pro-democratic banner.

This world-view is so biased as to become undebatable and ends all discussion on this point.

How can I attempt to reason with anyone who thinks the current Chinese Gov’t are “champions of democracy”?

They kill and imprison ethnic minorities, they’ve had one party rule for half-a-century, they make their own population work essentially slave-labor jobs, any dissent puts you in jail, they filter international media because they are afraid of what would happen if their people had this access en-masse.

Yeah… champions.

[bigtoughralf]

How can I attempt to reason with anyone who thinks the current Chinese Gov’t are “champions of democracy”?

You said you'd like to see the mainland and Taiwan reunified under a 'pro-democracy' banner, I pointed out that both Beijing and Taipei like to hold themselves up as proponents of democracy. So regardless of who ends up on top, it will be someone who is pro-democracy.

You can be pro-democracy without being a democracy. The US is a republic and yet considers itself pro-democracy. 'Democracy' is basically just a buzzword governments use when they want to make ordinary citizens think they can peacefully influence said government. Very few countries in the world meet the definition of being an actual democracy. Switzerland is one.

They kill and imprison ethnic minorities, they’ve had one party rule for half-a-century, they make their own population work essentially slave-labor jobs, any dissent puts you in jail, they filter international media because they are afraid of what would happen if their people had this access en-masse.

Ironic list of criticisms coming from someone who presumably thinks the US is a better role model.

[jimboston]

How can I attempt to reason with anyone who thinks the current Chinese Gov’t are “champions of democracy”?

You said you'd like to see the mainland and Taiwan reunified under a 'pro-democracy' banner, I pointed out that both Beijing and Taipei like to hold themselves up as proponents of democracy. So regardless of who ends up on top, it will be someone who is pro-democracy.

Just because China says it’s Pro-democracy doesn’t mean it’s a democracy in any way shape or form.

So if China invades Taiwan and takes over by force it would NOT result in unification as a democracy.

You can be pro-democracy without being a democracy. The US is a republic and yet considers itself pro-democracy. Very few countries in the world meet the definition of being an actual democracy. Switzerland is one.

No not really. I mean if you want to misinterpret the meaning of my statement sure.

US is a Democratic Republic…. how many “types of governments” / categories do we want create in this conversation. Do we really want to break down governments into 25-50 different categories and make this “conversation” that complicated in an Internet Forum? I thought we were keeping it simple… and we’ll create two categories…
1) Democratic Gov’t - USA clearly falls into this group.
2) Oppressive Dictatorship - Here’s China

Now if we had a spectrum of 25+ categories going from “more open/more democratic” to “more closed/more oppressive”…. then maybe US wouldn’t be in the “most open” category, but it’d be close. China wouldn’t be in the “most oppressive”… that’d be North Korea, Iran… but China might only be 3-4 rungs “up”. It’d certainly be on that side of the spectrum.

They kill and imprison ethnic minorities, they’ve had one party rule for half-a-century, they make their own population work essentially slave-labor jobs, any dissent puts you in jail, they filter international media because they are afraid of what would happen if their people had this access en-masse.

Ironic list of criticisms coming from someone who presumably thinks the US is a better role model.

The USA isn’t perfect…. but yeah… it’s much closer to the ideal than China. I’m not the type of person to let “perfect” get in the way of “good”.

That said… China is neither. Though I do believe China also has gotten better in the last 30-50 years… and the standard of living and quality of live has increased. That said… the problems in China are driven by intentional gov’t policy. This is not the case in the USA. China, as a one-party dictatorship can easily slide backwards.

[bigtoughralf]

Do we really want to break down governments into 25-50 different categories and make this “conversation” that complicated in an Internet Forum? I thought we were keeping it simple

Translation: can we please stick to discussing commonly accepted state propaganda because reality is too complicated and nuanced.

[jimboston]

You’re tiresome.

Again…if you don’t accept reality and facts then continuing this is a waste of my time.

Why don’t you just move to that Enlightened Place of Peace and Prosperity called China?

[jusplay4fun]

There is no perfect form of Government; but many try. Democracies TRY to be good government, BUT China and the CCP focus too much on keeping themselves in Power.

ralph wants to hold up Switzerland as a true democracy. They may be closer to a true democracy than most. But, I would argue that with a population of about 9 million, a true democracy can be better achieved in a relatively small (by population) nations. The fact that Switzerland is "more" of a democracy does not make that nation superior and does not mean their government is "better."

The USA is large, by land size and population (about 333 million, much larger than Switzerland) where a more democratic government is rather impractical, so we have a Republic.

What type of government we have in the United States?
The Constitution establishes a federal democratic republic form of government. That is, we have an indivisible union of 50 sovereign States. It is a democracy because people govern themselves. It is representative because people choose elected officials by free and secret ballot.

https://clyburn.house.gov/fun-youth/us-government#:~:text=The%20Constitution%20establishes%20a%20federal,by%20free%20and%20secret%20ballot.

One of the strengths of the US form of government is the US Constitution, with very specific government details outlined and its inherent means of revision via Amendments. AND a HUGE strength is the Bill of Rights, the first 10 Amendments.

I agree with JimB to keep this discussion of government simple. As far a JimB listing basically 2 forms of government: Democracy and dictatorships, I would add a third: Socialism.

Socialism is an economic and political system in which the workers or the government own the buildings and tools that make goods and services like farms and factories. This can be achieved through decentralized and direct worker-ownership, or through centralized state-ownership of the means of production. This is different from Capitalism, where the means of production are privately owned by capital holders. Socialism is a left-wing view.

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism#:~:text=Socialism%20is%20an%20economic%20and,of%20the%20means%20of%20production.

[Maxleod]

Why people are trying to argue with someone who claims China is a paragon of democracy is beyond me