Friends & Enemies & Enemies & That Other Guy - Wolves Won

[Extreme Ways]

Hint:
When you look at the bottom of the "setup" page you will find history games and can see how others played this setup before

Yes, i saw that.. That history mentiones 3 games and all 3 of those games ended up the same way: town lost and on D1 there was (three out of three times).. a townie lynched..
Thats why i asked EW advice (knowing how experienced he is on other mafia forums), and after LC strongly asks to lynch on D1.

We have to lynch day 1 and every day.
Does anyone disagree?

Well, convince me why not lynching is beneficial given 2 townies will die overnight.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I have always toought that lynch on D1 is not benefitial for town. And in this set up I still believe no lynch is better for town.
According to the wiki
2 Mafia
2 Werewolfs
7 Towns

So 63% chance we lynch a townie. then there is a large chance townies die at night 2 and end up with 2,2,4 intead of a safer 2,2,5. Plus we could gain info from night kills or even faction kills. However seems town does not have powers other than 2 masons knowing each other plus the back up mason in case one dies. So we should play this by probability. I think no lynch is better imo

[Extreme Ways]

I have always toought that lynch on D1 is not benefitial for town. And in this set up I still believe no lynch is better for town.
According to the wiki
2 Mafia
2 Werewolfs
7 Towns

So 63% chance we lynch a townie. then there is a large chance townies die at night 2 and end up with 2,2,4 intead of a safer 2,2,5. Plus we could gain info from night kills or even faction kills. However seems town does not have powers other than 2 masons knowing each other plus the back up mason in case one dies. So we should play this by probability. I think no lynch is better imo

By probability, not lynching is always better for town because town always has larger numbers. What info will you gain from nightkills if you cannot reason about why they are cared?

Mafia will want to push werewolves. Werewolves will want to push mafia.

[Extreme Ways]

Consider this: Town's only ability to eliminate mafia is via lynch. Would you rather have a 37% plus whatever the numbers are tomorrow to get rid of a mafia, or just the numbers tomorrow?

Each day counts for town.

As said by someone else in a recent game of mine, a lot more aggressive and rude:

I’m gonna say this once and only once to hopefully shape you to be a better mafia player in the future. There is absolutely NO town advantage to forgoing the day one elimination. None. Sure, in your eyes, we avoid eliminating a town member on accident, thus not reducing our numbers for parity. HOWEVER.

It lets mafia make the first move, completely takes away our agency in the game, and does absolutely nothing to advance our win condition, which is to eliminate mafia.

Day one mis-elims suck, sure, but they can have a very telling effect on the game as far as who voted where and what mafia had to do in order to make those eliminations happen.

I am not going to play with you. If you insist on no-elim or sleep voting day one I will probably campaign for you to be killed with the rage of a thousand suns and it’s not even because I think you’re a witch (yet), it’s because that type of amateur, non-committal, zero-skill play has no place here.

In this setup, yes, we have the judge, meaning any no-elimination attempt would just be decided by one individual instead of the whole village and that gets rid of all of our collaboration.

As someone with more than a decade of experience with this game in many forms, you never, ever, EVER no lynch on day one unless there is an extremely beneficial mechanical reason to do so. And the Judge is not it.

[kongming3]

Very much agreed, I am pro-lynching d1 especially when we have even less "pure" night-gathering information powers than last game. Lynch is the power town has to wield, and every night that passes will just give more opportunities for scum to use their powers. Even if we do hit a town, we get a lot of information on voting and player habits - just last game we had something like 4 or 5 mis-eliminations in a row, but that ended up helping the remaining town figure out every scum from what appeared to be a lost game. I would also note that this time two of our townsfolk know each other, so there should be some amount of influence from that that will reduce the odds of a townsfolk hit (obviously the masons should not openly reveal themselves at this stage).

[Loose Canon]

Whatever everyones faction is I think I want to see more posts in terms of putting opinions on scumminess/optimal game strategy than we have seen in previous games.

For D1 I want to see posts/opinions on optimal game strategy from everyone - whether it be on an already argued topic or a new one.

I have a view that optimal gameplay for everyone whatever their faction will be not to post.

On the lynch/don't lynch D1 discussion which is occurring I will air the following deductive reasoning;
Both the masons and the reserve mason could and possibly (I'd go probably) should reveal themselves IF they are in danger of being lynched.
Thus the probability of a mislynch D1 is probably nearer to 4 out of 8 than 7 out of 11.
Also to back this probability assessment up having looked (quickly) at the 3 games referred to on wikimafia in those games I think I'm right in saying that only 1 of the 9 masons/reserve masons was eliminated by a mislynch when 8 of the 9 were eliminated by night action.

I'm going to be inclined to vote to lynch a low contributing player D1.
Please post and argue, and commit to sharing the burden of doing so.

[SoN!c]

Whatever everyones faction is ...

I assume your town LC? Or at least try to pretend you are if not?

All im saying is if we lynch D1 its gonna be 7/11 odds that we will hit a townie. If we wait 1 day that percentage drops to almost fifty-fifty. And we should debate a bit first on the subject anyways?

First: I like our end game odds better with 1 more townie alive. And that could be the D1 mislynch townie.. This is gonna turn into a last man standing slaughterfest game i feel. Could end very well in a mexican stand-off.
Second: debating is all here, that's all we have to go on.


Third: Look at the history page Charle posted about this game, all 3 D1 lynches (exact same game setting) were townlynches...doesn't matter only one of them was a mason. Three games, three times a mislynch on D1..

And i have to say; Sofar the only thing that got my spidersense up a bit was this:

Charle , ..
Can one or both of the scum factions opt not to kill though?
And what happens if Mafia player1 tries to kill Werewolf player1 AND Werewolf player1 tries to kill Mafia player1?

Sorry LC but first question seems a bit weird, why would scumfactions opt to not kill?? And second question seems a question a scummie would ask?.

And now, with that already, now your saying the 2 masons + the reserve mason should reveal themselves when getting nearly mislynched?? The third doesn't even know he is the spare.

Both the masons and the reserve mason could and possibly should reveal themselves IF they are in danger of being lynched.

Probably nothing to find there?

[Extreme Ways]

Sonic seems to be purposefully misinterpreting/misconstruing parts of LC's post

[SoN!c]

These are genuine questions and besides you coming to LC's defense i like to get a debate going hearing it from LC. And yes I do agree LC has a good point on the silent ones but if i agree with everything there would not be much of a debate.

[Extreme Ways]

These are genuine questions and besides you coming to LC's defense i like to get a debate going hearing it from LC. And yes I do agree LC has a good point on the silent ones but if i agree with everything there would not be much of a debate.

Not all the masons should claim mason for sure. I don't know what's optimal, but if we are masons and I claim to help you, we both die to the nightkill. Ideally by virtue of having a mason buddy one doesnt end up in a position where they need to claim.

[Extreme Ways]

People should also not say they are not mason, because that limits the pool of possible masons.

[Maxleod]

Vote DDS

Just because.

[Loose Canon]

If there is an ulterior purpose behind Sonic's posts my best guess it is to tease out some evidence as to what faction I am, and/or to tease out some evidence on other factions by their reactions.

I will say that 3 games is hardly statically significant for optimal D1 lynch or not strategy.

Re the back up mason not knowing who they are sonic is correct.

Re why a scum faction might opt to not kill, there may be reasons right or wrong for this, consider the following as one possibility:
A single night kill might create the illusion that both scum factions had targeted the same player, or at least not give information away about who one scum faction were most worried about.

Currently I'm most worried about no/low post contributors.

[SoN!c]

Thx LC, not much to go on here.. Let's have a long D1 with good activity and see who stays silent to start with. 4 scummies to find.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I'm here, just reading along at the moment. Waiting for the opportune time to throw strike and rag under the bus and get those two bastards lynched have a wonderful chat that wouldn't get derailed by the monsoon of loony toons we have jumpin around here

[kongming3]

I did hear strike wolf likes his meat very rare...

[DirtyDishSoap]

You're on to something Kong...

Werewolf...Strike Wolf...

Unvote vote Strike JUST LOOK AT HIS NAME

[SoN!c]

Werewolf...Strike Wolf...? Werewolf...Strike Wolf...?? Werewolf...Strike Wolf.. Dang, That sounds waaay too loony tuned to make that stuff up! That's gotta be it!!

unvote

Vote Strike

PS: Strike, if you are not a wolf but the spare Mason, just reveal yourself as spare Mason when you are in danger of being lynched. Nothing to worry then

[Devante]

Last time we joked about him being a wolf and he turned out to be scum so why not. He should really ask for a name change

VOTE STRIKE

I'm for a D1 lynch personally. Seems to be the only way town can get lucky other then waiting to be killed off

[Loose Canon]

Neither Pepe nor max have offered anything yet.

Don't like the 3 votes on strike. I think strike has a strong track record in the endgame. So I would think will be night killed at some point. He'd be too dangerous to one or both scum factions.
Also in the last game he gave me a strong scum tell end.of D2. Was going to go hard for strike d3 if not night killed N2.
Strike will have to comment whether my D2 posts played any factor in my N2 kill that game?

Don't see why sonic isn't going for an inactive player - his reason for voting max to start with was ok by me.

[PepeAtila]

I will wait a little because I have no idea what is the best thing to do, but if most people think we should vote lynch I will do it.

[SoN!c]

Neither Pepe nor max have offered anything yet.

Don't like the 3 votes on strike. ... voting max to start with was ok by me.

Hang LOOSE Loose and do The "shaka" sign!

Hang Loose and release the juice

Max got in here, so did Pepe and D1 should be very long, that is town's best option, - only scum would want a short D1..

So a long D1 also means a lot of yadayada to run through. So you wanna have some fun while doing that? Go with the fun brother, we are trying to get Strike in here and make him say something. And with 11 it takes 6 votes -we are way off that mark and i'll unvote anytime


PS: Strike, if you are not a wolf but the spare Mason, just reveal yourself as spare Mason when you are in danger of being lynched. Nothing to worry then (if you are the spare Mason that is, if town finds out, by miracle, you can't be the spare, we will lynch you for sure!

[strike wolf]

First of all, FOS everyone who tried to kill the joke vote phase before I could even make a real post. Second, I knew I wasn't paranoid to think all of you would be out to get me. Third, there is an argument that mafia should not target good, active players. It would certainly be a risk to leave them alive but they also have a higher chance of IDing one of your opponents at a crucial moment in the end game.

Finally, you're all a bunch of filthy bandwagoners. Vote DDS because I didn't actually want to lynch him last game.

[Extreme Ways]

@Sonic mod may correct me if I'm wrong, but the backup mason does not know whether they are the backup mason.

[SoN!c]

@Sonic mod may correct me if I'm wrong, but the backup mason does not know whether they are the backup mason.

The correct answer however is:

"Yes, i believe so EW, you might be very well correct there".



So, even we could not scare Strike Wolf because LC didnt get it, we do know he responds fast when called upon.